On October 17, 2026, Vancouver voters will head to the polls for the city’s 42nd municipal election. With the once-dominant ABC Vancouver now floundering, and new forces surging from both the centre and the left, next year’s election campaign promises to be one of the most competitive — and transformative — in decades.

The Collapse of ABC Vancouver

In 2022, Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver swept all three levels of municipal governance — Mayor, City Council, Park Board, and School Board — in an historic rout. Four years later, that landslide looks like an aberration, the result of voter fatigue with the now moribund Vision Vancouver and a desire for change.

Since then, however, the Sim administration has struggled. Public dissatisfaction with his handling of homelessness, public safety, and affordability has steadily grown. Community groups accuse Sim of being unresponsive; critics inside City Hall describe an administration consumed with internal squabbles. By 2026, Sim’s brand has soured to the point where many observers believe his party faces the same fate as the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) before it: political extinction.

Few expect ABC Vancouver to elect more than one or two Councillors — if that — while Sim’s re-election prospects appear dim. His fate seems sealed: destined, as one longtime watcher quipped, “for the scrap heap of civic history.”

The Rise of the Vancouver Liberals

Into this vacuum steps Kareem Allam, the political strategist best known for his work on high-profile campaigns across the province, and federally. With deep connections to federal and provincial networks, Allam has quietly built a formidable war chest and, earlier this year, formally launched the Vancouver Liberals.

Armed with deep pockets, disciplined messaging, and a polished campaign operation, the Vancouver Liberals are poised to make a splash in their first municipal contest. Allam himself has already announced his intention to run for Mayor. Though untested on the ballot, he enters the race with credibility as a strategist, access to resources, and the ability to tap into moderate, disillusioned ABC voters.

The question is whether Allam can translate money and machinery into broad support in a city still wary of political rebranding. His pitch — competence, pragmatism, and fiscal responsibility — will resonate with centrist homeowners and business interests. The Vancouver Liberals will likely emerge as a significant force on Council and could very well win the mayoralty if progressive forces split the vote.

The Green Party of Vancouver

The Greens enter 2026 with only one sitting Councillor, Pete Fry, who has proven durable and personable. Fry’s strength lies in his grassroots connections and ability to appear pragmatic rather than ideological. He will almost certainly hold his seat.

But the Greens face the perennial challenge of being seen as a single-issue party. With climate concerns real but overshadowed by affordability and housing, their ceiling remains low. Expect one or two seats at most, unless they can expand their message to broader urban issues.

COPE’s Resurgence

The Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE), long a marginal presence, has been reinvigorated by activist energy. The April 2025 by-election was a turning point: Sean Orr, poverty and housing activist, topped the polls, proving that unapologetic left-wing politics still have a constituency in Vancouver.

Orr’s victory has galvanized COPE’s base, particularly among renters, young voters, and those frustrated with market-driven housing policy. If COPE can harness that momentum, they could secure multiple seats on Council for the first time in a generation.

OneCity’s Momentum

Meanwhile, OneCity Vancouver has built a reputation as the progressive party best positioned to compete citywide. The April by-election was a breakthrough: Lucy Maloney scored a resounding victory, finishing just behind Orr, cementing OneCity’s profile.

With a strong organization, a message rooted in housing reform, and credibility among progressive professionals, OneCity is poised to expand its presence. They are likely to elect several Councillors, and could, in the right alignment of votes, mount a credible mayoral challenge in future cycles.

TEAM for a Livable Vancouver

If 2022 was disappointing for TEAM for a Livable Vancouver, 2026 may be decisive. The party, rooted in nostalgia for the TEAM brand of the 1970s, ran a distant third four years ago and failed to elect anyone. Their anti-development messaging resonates in pockets of the west side, but increasingly feels out of step with a city desperate for housing solutions.

TEAM’s leader, Colleen Hardwick, will once again run for mayor. Though she brings name recognition and experience, her prospects remain dim. Without a breakthrough, TEAM risks irrelevance.

The Mayoral Race

With Ken Sim floundering and Colleen Hardwick confined to a narrow base, the mayoral contest appears to be shaping into a four-way showdown between Ken Sim, Kareem Allam, Rebecca Bligh, Colleen Hardwick and the progressive forces aligned with COPE and OneCity.

• Ken Sim (ABC Vancouver): The incumbent’s approval ratings have cratered. Re-election is highly unlikely.

• Colleen Hardwick (TEAM): Hardwick will keep TEAM visible, but her chances of victory remain minimal.

• Kareem Allam (Vancouver Liberals): A brilliant strategist with money and momentum, Allam could emerge as the leading challenger to Sim. His appeal to centrists and disillusioned moderates makes him a real contender.

• Rebecca Bligh (Independent/possible Vancouver Liberals ally): The two-term Councillor has yet to formally declare, but her active fundraising signals intent. Bligh’s profile is strong: current two-term president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, respected within Vancouver, with cross-partisan appeal. If she enters, she could fracture the centrist vote — or, if aligned with Allam, form a powerhouse ticket.

A Fragmented Future

The 2026 election is shaping up to be less about a single dominant party and more about a fragmented Council, with multiple blocs competing for influence. COPE and OneCity on the left, the Liberals in the centre, and the Greens straddling the middle will likely form the core of the next council. ABC and TEAM, once serious players, appear destined for the margins.

The mayoralty will hinge on whether progressives can consolidate behind a single candidate or whether the vote splinters. If divided, Allam and the Vancouver Liberals may well capture the Mayor’s chair, ushering in a new centrist era. If united, the left has a chance to seize city hall.

Either way, October 17, 2026, will mark a turning point. The Sim era is over; what comes next is still unwritten.

An Important Note

Today’s VanRamblings’ column was created entirely by Open AI’s ChatGPT artificial intelligence engine, in response to the instruction: write a 900 word column on the 2026 Vancouver municipal election, and the 5 parties seeking office that intend to run candidates for Vancouver City Council. In addition, write about the candidates for Vancouver Mayor, and what you believe their prospects will be come 2026.