Category Archives: canadian politics

#BCPoli | Election 2024 | Riding Breakdown Analysis | Vancouver Island

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In the 2024 British Columbia provincial election there are 93 ridings, six more than in the 2020 B.C. election, thanks to the redistribution recommendation of the Independent Electoral Commission which was charged to make voting in British Columbia fairer and more representative of the population of the province.

In British Columbia, there are 25 ridings in the Interior (the Okanagan and the Kootenays), 16 ridings across Vancouver Island, and 52 ridings across Metro Vancouver, reaching out into the Fraser Valley, and extending to Chilliwack.

In total, there are approximately 30 ridings that will tell the tale on Election Night,  October 19th. The outcome in these ridings will determine whether incumbent Premier David Eby’s New Democratic Party will hold onto government, or will be replaced by John Rustad’s insurgent Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Today, VanRamblings will focus on the Vancouver Island ridings in contention.

For the past couple of provincial elections Vancouver Island has proved to be a New Democratic Party fortress, with the party winning every riding on the Island. Following the October 19th election, we could witness a return to the days when a handful of Socred  / B.C. Liberal candidates held sway in five or six Vancouver Island ridings.

VanRamblings will publish three additional riding analysis columns covering the Interior and the North, a good portion of Metro Vancouver (focusing on Vancouver / Burnaby / Richmond / Delta / New Westminster / Surrey), and a final riding by riding analysis column covering the Tri-Cities, the north side of the Fraser River, Langley, and into the Fraser Valley through to Chilliwack.

Today, VanRamblings is focused on the Vancouver Island ridings that could allow David Eby to hold government, or thrust John Rustad into the Premier’s chair.

Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention in Election 2024

(Click on the underlined text for more information on the candidates running in the riding)

  • Victoria-Beacon Hill . Held by former B.C. NDP leader / Finance Minister Carole James from 2005 to 2020, upon resigning for health reasons, popular Victoria City Councillor Grace Lore ran in her stead in the 2020 B.C. election and won. During her first term, Ms. Lore’s four-year-old son was diagnosed with a brain tumour, which saw his mother cut back on some of her political activities in the riding, also gaining her family much sympathy and support. Upon her son’s return to health, Grace Lore was appointed as the Minister of Children and Family Development, a job she has excelled at, gaining much recognition for competence in the post, as well as for her caring and compassion. Ms. Lore’s challengers in 2024: Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, this will be a tight three-person race, with the very real possibility that there could be as little as half a percentage point in the vote separating the winner from the two politicos who fail to secure victory on the evening of October 19th.

  • Ladysmith-Oceanside . Adam Walker was elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election. For reasons that have never been revealed, Mr. Walker was removed from the NDP caucus on September 18, 2023, and since that date has sat as an Independent. Mr. Walker is running for office in 2024 as an Independent, with the endorsement of the Green Party, and the on the ground support of the party’s supporters. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a relative unknown. There’s also a second Independent candidate, Lehann Wallace, who is seeking the seat. The outcome in the riding is unpredictable. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.

  • Courtenay-Comox . Both Courtenay-Comox and North Island are in the federal riding of North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn — whose claim to fame was being removed from the B.C. Liberal party leadership race in 2021 for being too far right — is the federal Conservative Party candidate. In 2017, Ronna-Rae Leonard — who is running for re-election in 2024 — won Courtenay-Comox by a hair’s breadth. For the previous two decades, the riding had been a B.C. Liberal stronghold. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest that Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding come October 19th. Not for no reason was John Rustad front and centre in the riding on the opening day, and again on Sunday for a big rally, of Election 2024.

  • North Island. As far as North Island is concerned, the riding oughta be another pick up for the B.C. Conservatives, their candidate physician Anna Kindy, who was an organizer with the Trucker Convoy, who brought hundreds of her future (anti-vaxx) constituents to the B.C. Legislature to protest Health Minister Adrian Dix, and Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry’s edicts on how to fight COVID. In a change election, the pundits’ smart money is on Dr. Kindy to put the riding in the win column for the B.C. Conservatives — who will fire Dr. Henry as a first order of business should they form government.

  • Saanich North and the Islands. B.C. Liberal from 1991 to 2013. A bare NDP victory in 2013, with B.C. Green Party candidate, Adam Olsen — who is not running again in 2024 — securing victory in 2017 and 2020. With former Islands Trustee Rob Botterell running with the Greens, lawyer David Busch with the B.C. Conservatives and Sarah Riddell, elected to Central Saanich City Council in 2022, the B.C. NDP candidate — a riding that has voted Conservative federally for decades — it’s anyone’s guess as to the outcome of this tight three way race come election night.

The 11 remaining Vancouver Island ridings oughta vote solidly NDP come election day. C’mon back tomorrow for more riding analysis, as we move to the Interior and the North, after which we’ll analyze Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | Former BC United MLAs & Candidates to Run as Independents

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In the aftermath of the dissolution of B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberal Party, several incumbent B.C. United members of British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly, and former candidates, have this past week decided to run as Independents in the upcoming 2024 British Columbia provincial election.

This rise of Independents running for election — or, re-election — follows B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad and shutter the party, leaving centrist voters without a clear political home. The choices made by these MLAs and former candidates to run as Independents reveal a divergence of political philosophy from Kevin Falcon’s strategy, and reflect concerns about the lack of moderate representation in provincial politics.

The Independent Candidates: Incumbent Members of the Legislature

Several incumbent B.C. United MLAs have announced they will be running as Independents. Each brings their own rationale for breaking away from the party and running independently:

  • Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano): A staunch advocate for centrist policies, Kirkpatrick has expressed discomfort with B.C. United’s decision to merge its support with the B.C. Conservatives. Her primary concerns centre on the erosion of moderate voices, particularly regarding social policy issues like LGBTQ rights and environmental policies, which she sees as being disregarded by the decidedly more right-wing Conservative Party of British Columbia. MLA Karin Kirkpatrick aims to continue representing her constituents with hard work, and a centrist approach.

  • Coralee Oakes (Cariboo North): Ms. Oakes — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Community, Sport and Cultural Development — with a deep history of public service in her rural riding, has also similarly distanced herself from the merger. She has criticized the B.C. Conservatives alt-right stance, as she emphasizes her commitment to pragmatic, community-based governance that is neither aligned with the socially democratic B.C. NDP nor the far-too-right-wing for her, B.C. Conservatives. Oakes’s focus remains on rural issues such as forestry and infrastructure.
  • Mike Bernier (Peace River South): Mr. Bernier — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Education — has long advocated for resource development and economic growth, but believes that the endorsement of the B.C. Conservative Party by Kevin Falcon represents a step too far toward the political right. Running as an Independent allows Mr. Benier to maintain a balance between economic conservatism and moderate social policies that he believes reflect the values of his constituents.
  • Dan Davies (Peace River North): Mr. Davies has taken a similar stance, underscoring the importance of responsible fiscal policy without compromising on social issues like education and healthcare. His departure from B.C. United reflects his unease with the B.C. Conservatives extreme positions, particularly regarding climate change and Indigenous relations, which are key issues in his resource-rich riding.
  • Tom Shypitka (Kootenay-Rockies): Mr. Shypitka, known for his work in mining and natural resource sectors, has voiced concerns about how Kevin Falcon’s endorsement of the John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party could alienate voters who are interested in economic development, but who also value progressive stances on issues like environmental sustainability. By running as an Independent, Mr. Shypitka hopes to represent a balance that the B.C. Conservative Party does not embrace.

Former B.C. United Candidates Turning Independent in 2024

Several former B.C. United candidates are also taking the Independent route:

  • Jackie Lee (Richmond-Steveston) and Wendy Yuan (Richmond Centre).  A long-time advocate for immigrant communities and small businesses, Jackie Lee has voiced frustration over the lack of moderate representation, most particularly Conservative’s socially intolerant stances. Meanwhile, Wendy Yuan is a three decade resident in the Richmond Centre riding, who has expressed concern about escalating crime, open drug use, and a relentless surge in the cost of living.
  • Karen Long (Langley-Abbotsford), Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre) and Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland). All four former — well known in their communities — B.C. United candidates, now running as Independents, have expressed similar concerns regarding social policies and a desire to represent their ridings with a more balanced platform, reflecting frustration with the direction taken by John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party.

  • Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) and Greg McCune (Salmon Arm-Shuwap): These candidates, who have championed rural issues like farming and resource management, have expressed concerns about the polarizing impact of the B.C. Conservative Party on voters who may not agree with their stance on climate change or social issues, but still want robust support for local economies.
  • Meiling Chia (Burnaby South-Metrotown): Ms. Chia has positioned herself as a voice for urban issues like housing affordability and transit. She believes that neither the B.C. Conservatives nor the B.C. NDP offers real solutions for these problems, particularly in fast-growing urban areas where centrist solutions are needed

The Impact of Independent Candidates on B.C.’s Provincial Election

The decision by these former B.C. United MLAs and candidates to run as Independents will have significant implications for both the B.C. Conservative Party and the B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP) in the upcoming election.

  • Impact on B.C. Conservative Party: With B.C. United’s former base splintering, the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad are poised to gain support, especially in rural ridings where conservative values are popular. However, the presence of high-profile Independents like Bernier, Oakes, and Davies could split the vote in these regions, potentially reducing the chances of a B.C. Conservative victory. These Independents may appeal to voters who are fiscally conservative but uncomfortable with the B.C. Conservatives’ positions on social issues like LGBTQ rights and climate change.
  • Impact on B.C. NDP: The splintering of the centre-right vote could benefit the B.C. NDP, especially in urban ridings like Richmond-Steveston, Burnaby South-Metrotown, and Kelowna-Mission. Without a strong centrist party, the B.C. NDP may face less competition from a unified right, allowing them to consolidate support in key battlegrounds. However, if Independent candidates gain enough traction, they could draw away moderate voters who would otherwise have supported the NDP as a strategic choice.

Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse John Rustad and close B.C. United has left a significant void in British Columbia’s political landscape. VanRamblings has been told by folks in the know that come the 2028 British Columbia provincial election voters will see the revival of a vibrant new, well-funded B.C. Liberal party, offering a fiscally responsible, and socially progressive approach to B.C. politics.

In 2024, by running as Independents, the former B.C. United MLAs and candidates we write about today are aiming to fill that gap, providing voters with a centrist option they believe no longer exists within B.C.’s formal party system.

Their presence in the election is likely to reshape the dynamics in key ridings, creating new challenges for both the B.C. Conservatives and the B.C. NDP.

Whether this strategy will succeed remains to be seen, but it underscores the shifting political terrain in British Columbia as voters navigate between the increasingly polarized political options on offer in the British Columbia provincial election.

#BCPoli | Affordable Housing Plan | Part 2 |
BC New Democratic Party

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Premier David Eby and the B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP) have developed a comprehensive housing plan aimed at addressing British Columbia’s escalating affordability crisis. The second plank in the B.C. NDP’s housing plan specifically targets individuals and families earning between $30,000 and $88,000 annually, aiming to provide affordable co-operative housing on a large scale.

The B.C. New Democrats’ housing plan emphasizes the use of municipal, provincial, and federal Crown land for the construction of housing co-ops, offering long-term leases — typically on a 66-or-99 year leasehold basis — to keep costs down.


The Railyard Housing Co-operative, built on Crown land, 135-units, with bachelor-1-2-3-and-4 bedroom units, priced well below the market. Includes two child care centres, with spaces for up to 130 children.

Additionally, municipalities would forego development fees — saving up to $1.5 to $4.5 million, depending on the size of the housing co-op, and number of units — significantly reducing the cost of building, thereby allowing these newly-built housing co-op homes to remain affordable for middle-income earners.

The strategy to build co-operative housing on government land is a notable aspect of the B.C. NDP’s approach to solving the housing crisis.

Co-operative housing, which offers more stability and community engagement than traditional rental housing, is a model where residents collectively own the housing but do not own individual units.

This model has proven successful in other parts of Canada and Europe, providing long-term affordability and community-driven management.

One of the key elements of the plan is its focus on affordability through leasehold arrangements on public land.


A town house-style housing co-operative built on Crown land in Vancouver’s River District

By leasing land rather than selling it outright to developers, the government can ensure that the affordability of these homes is maintained for generations. The 66- or 99-year lease term provides security for families and individuals, allowing them to build long-term roots without the fear of skyrocketing rent or property values.


The 65-unit purpose built rental building at 2nd and Larch in Vancouver, with 14 studio, one, two and three-bedroom units set aside at CMHC’s median market rental rate, at $1000 – $1250 per month

The B.C. NDP has also introduced a provincial mandate that requires all new purpose-built rental housing to allocate 20% of units at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) median market rental rates.

These CMHC rates are typically much lower than the market rates in hot real estate markets like Vancouver and Victoria.

By ensuring that a portion of new rental units are priced affordably, the provincial government hopes to address the growing rental affordability gap.

This is particularly significant as purpose-built rental housing often commands higher rents than older rental stock, leaving many renters — especially families — struggling to find affordable, stable homes.

In addition to building new housing, the B.C. NDP has a long-standing policy of purchasing existing apartment buildings to preserve affordable housing.

By acquiring older buildings, the government prevents private developers from converting them into luxury condos or raising rents beyond the means of current tenants. This approach has been lauded for ensuring that affordable housing remains available across municipalities, where market pressures often push lower-income residents out of desirable urban areas.

Premier David Eby has stated that the B.C. NDP will continue this strategy, helping to protect vulnerable renters from displacement due to real estate speculation.

In stark contrast, John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has yet to present a comprehensive housing plan. The absence of a clear policy to address the affordability crisis leaves many wondering how the party intends to tackle one of the most pressing issues facing British Columbians.


Premier David Eby addresses a gathering of real estate and urban development professionals Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024, at the Paradox Hotel Vancouver | Photo: Rachel Thexton

Premier David Eby believes the B.C. Conservatives should release more particulars of their housing policies, with the October 19th election just over one month away.

Speaking at a meeting of real estate and urban development professionals last Thursday, the B.C. NDP leader said voters deserve to know what exactly the Conservatives intend to do on housing if they win a majority in the upcoming vote and form a new government.

“I would like to know what the Conservative housing plan is,” Eby told the audience at an industry event hosted by Urban Land Institute BC. “I think for housing to be on the ballot for people, they have to actually understand what their choices are that are coming forward.”

While Rustad has criticized the B.C. NDP for their housing initiatives, he has offered little in the way of a concrete solution. The B.C. Conservatives’ silence on this issue is particularly concerning given the housing crisis’s impact on the province’s middle- and lower-income families.

Moreover, the B.C. Conservative Party’s proposals related to rental housing would exacerbate the housing affordability problem.

Rustad’s party advocates for removing the cap on rent increases, a move that would disproportionately harm renters, particularly those on fixed or lower incomes.

Without rent control, landlords would have the freedom to increase rents at will, further straining families who already struggle to afford housing. This policy would worsen inequity in a rental market that already heavily favours landlords.

Additionally, the B.C. Conservatives have proposed further empowering landlords, potentially reducing tenant protections and making it easier for landlords to evict tenants or raise rents. This shift would create an even more unequal dynamic between landlords and tenants, where renters — many of whom are low- or middle-income families — would have little recourse against rent hikes or evictions.

Families relying on affordable rental housing would be hit hardest, with fewer options to find stable, affordable homes.

— David Eby (@Dave_Eby) September 16, 2024

In contrast, Premier David Eby’s B.C. NDP housing plan aims to strike a balance between affordability and housing supply, ensuring families earning between $30,000 and $88,000 can access housing without being priced out of the market.

David Eby’s emphasis on co-operative housing, along with the mandate for affordable rental units in new developments, represents a long-term strategy to combat housing unaffordability in British Columbia. This stands in direct opposition to the B.C. Conservatives’ pro-landlord, anti-renter policies, which would likely lead to higher rents, more evictions, and an exacerbation of the housing crisis.

The contrast between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives on housing is stark.

While the B.C. NDP have laid out a multi-faceted plan that seeks to provide affordable housing to middle-income families, protect renters, and increase housing supply, Rustad and the B.C. Conservativesoffer a vision that favours landlords, weakens tenant protections, and risks pushing more families into housing insecurity.

As the housing crisis continues to dominate the political landscape in British Columbia, voters will need to decide which approach best addresses their needs — an inclusive, affordable, multi-faceted housing strategy, or a hands-off market approach that prioritizes developers and property owners over renters.

The B.C. NDP’s Housing Plan, Part 1 — Dignified Supportive Housing

#BCPoli | The Impact of The Age of Grievance and Complaint Culture in 2024

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The age of grievance and the culture of complaint have become defining features of contemporary political discourse in Canada and beyond.

In Frank Bruni’s The Age of Grievance, the New York Times’ Opinion columnist and Duke University professor, outlines how political figures have weaponized grievances to galvanize support, shift public sentiment, and redirect anger into votes.

This culture of dissatisfaction, cynicism, and victimhood has seeped into the Canadian political landscape, informing the strategies of major conservative figures, including Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, and John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Understanding how this age of grievance shapes political campaigns is crucial to grasping the shifting nature of voter behaviour, particularly as it pertains to the rise of far-right or populist sentiments.

Pierre Poilievre and the Politics of Grievance

Poilievre has skillfully harnessed the culture of grievance as a key political strategy.

At the heart of Poilievre’s appeal is his ability to frame issues as part of a broader narrative where everyday Canadians have been wronged by government elites, bureaucrats, or a distant political class. By positioning himself as the voice of “common sense,” he taps into frustrations felt by many Canadians — whether it’s over affordability, housing, inflation, or perceived loss of personal freedoms.

Bruni’s The Age of Grievance highlights how figures like Poilievre manipulate these sentiments to create a sense of urgency.

Poilievre frequently paints a picture of a country under siege by wokeism, government overreach, and inflationary policies. He taps into a sense of national victimhood, where Canadian values and identity are under attack, positioning himself as the solution to restore these lost values. This isn’t merely a campaign tactic, but a broader effort to reshape Canadian political consciousness.

Bruni notes that “in a grievance-fueled culture, anger becomes the rallying cry, and solutions are often secondary to the preservation of outrage.”

This applies perfectly to Poilievre’s style.

His criticism of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of the economy, energy policy, and pandemic restrictions follows a pattern of inflaming grievances rather than offering concrete, nuanced solutions. In doing so, Poilievre consolidates support not by offering optimism, but by fanning the flames of dissatisfaction.

British Columbia and the Politics of Complaint

In British Columbia, the age of grievance has similarly found fertile ground.

The current provincial election has become a battleground for competing narratives of grievance, with John Rustad of the BC Conservative Party emerging as a central figure exploiting this atmosphere for political gain.

British Columbia, a province often associated with progressive politics, has seen increasing polarization. The polarization between the BC New Democratic Party (NDP), which has governed for years, and rising conservative forces, such as Rustad’s BC Conservatives, reflects the influence of a growing culture of dissatisfaction. Voter frustration over affordability, housing crises, healthcare shortages, and environmental policies has coalesced into a broader sense of disillusionment with the political establishment.

Rustad’s campaign has capitalized on this sense of grievance, positioning his party as the “real alternative” to the governing NDP.

Rustad frames the government as “out-of-touch elites” who care more about woke policies, such as climate action, than about the daily struggles of British Columbians. In echoing Poilievre’s national campaign strategy, Rustad paints a picture of a province where citizens have been ignored and betrayed by the government. By presenting himself as the antidote to this betrayal, he has tapped into a well of voter dissatisfaction.

As Bruni notes, “leaders who exploit grievances do not seek resolution, but rather fuel the perception of perpetual crisis, ensuring that discontent becomes a permanent political currency.” Rustad’s campaign exemplifies this. He doesn’t offer a transformative vision for British Columbia but rather sustains a sense of crisis — over taxes, land use, or environmental regulations — that keeps grievances alive.

The Grievance Mindset and Populist Shift

The age of grievance has had a marked impact on voter behaviour, not only in British Columbia but across North America.

Many voters who feel alienated or left behind by the status quo are drawn to conservative or even far-right parties that exploit their frustrations. This is evident in how Rustad’s party, much like Poilievre’s federal campaign, attracts voters by offering simple answers to complex problems, such as opposing carbon taxes or claiming that crime and drug use are rampant due to “soft-on-crime” policies.

Bruni warns that in such a grievance-driven environment, “voters can be seduced by voices that promise a return to simpler times, even when those promises are illusory.” This has been true for British Columbia voters who, dissatisfied with the NDP’s handling of the housing crisis or healthcare system, may turn toward a party that doesn’t represent their best interests but resonates with their frustrations.

The age of grievance thus contributes to a political atmosphere where voters are more likely to make choices based on anger or cynicism rather than long-term policy benefits. This phenomenon explains why populist and even far-right movements, which exploit dissatisfaction but offer few concrete solutions, have gained traction even among voters who might otherwise support progressive policies.

David Eby and the Progressive Response

For David Eby and the British Columbia New Democratic Party, the challenge is how to counter this grievance-fueled narrative.

The key may lie in offering a vision of hope and forward-thinking solutions, rather than merely responding to grievances with defensive rhetoric. As Bruni suggests, “the antidote to grievance is not more grievance, but a reassertion of optimism and constructive action.”

Eby’s task is to convince voters that their frustrations — though real — are best addressed through thoughtful governance, rather than reactionary policies.

By focusing on housing, healthcare, and climate action, David Eby can remind voters that while grievances may persist, real solutions require sustained effort and collaboration. Moreover, Eby must highlight the dangers of grievance politics, pointing out that figures like Rustad are more interested in sustaining voter anger than in solving the province’s problems.

The age of grievance has become a dominant force in both federal and provincial politics in Canada. Conservative leaders like Pierre Poilievre and John Rustad have capitalized on this culture to galvanize support, while progressive parties like the B.C. New Democrats must find ways to navigate this political landscape without succumbing to the cynicism that defines it.

By offering solutions that go beyond complaint, leaders like David Eby can potentially counter the divisive forces that have emerged in this era of grievance-driven politics, and form government post Election Day, on Saturday, October 19th.