Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.
According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.
Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.
Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.
But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …
Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservativesdo not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.
As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.
Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.
No longer.
Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?
Hmmm.
We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.
In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.
Selina Robinson announces that she is resigning from the BC NDP caucus to sit as an Independent
Age Old Maxim | A Week is a Lifetime in Politics | The Personal is Political
Yesterday afternoon — former British Columbia Finance Minister Selina Robinson in the administration of Premier John Horgan, and when removed from that post when the BC NDP caucus unanimously moved to make David Eby the leader of the party and British Columbia’s 37th Premier — resigned from the BC NDP caucus to sit as an Independent, citing anti-semitism within the BC NDP caucus.
Selina Robinson, B.C.’s most prominent Jewish politician, said she’s leaving the B.C. NDP caucus over concerns it hasn’t done enough to fight antisemitism among fellow MLAs.
The bombshell announcement Wednesday comes a month after Robinson was forced to resign from cabinet after public backlash to comments that Israel was founded on a “crappy piece of land with nothing on it.”
Robinson said she talked to the NDP caucus last week and then Premier David Eby today about instituting antisemitic and anti-Islamophobia training for all MLAs and opportunities to create a dialogue between the Jewish community and Palestinian and Arab communities amid the division created by the Israel-Hamas war.
Robinson said she was rebuffed.
“That’s really the work that we should be doing. But right now, government isn’t interested in doing that work.”
That’s what led Robinson to decide she “can’t continue to be the only voice speaking up against antisemitism and hatred.” She will sit as an Independent.
Selina Robinson means to burn some bridges on the way out — as Keith Baldrey pointed out on Global BC’s Newshour at 6 — with the release of a “blistering letter” condemning her colleagues for not doing enough to combat anti-semitism.
Says Baldrey, “(Selina Robinson) calls out and names seven of her fellow NDP MLAs for either anti-semitic actions or controversial comments concerning the Jewish community. These are explosive allegations.”
Selina Robinson ends the letter [pdf] to her now former colleagues, writing …
The nine NDP colleagues Ms. Robinson names, and accuses of anti-semitism, either by commission or omission, or she deems to be otherwise unsupportive …
Aman Singh | Parliamentary Secretary for Environment MLA for Richmond-Queensborough;
Katrina Chen | MLA for Burnaby-Lougheed;
Mable Elmore | Parliamentary Secretary for Anti-Racism Initiatives MLA for Vancouver-Kensington;
Niki Sharma | Attorney General MLA for Vancouver-Hastings;
Lisa Beare | Minister of Post-Secondary and Future Skills MLA for Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows;
Jennifer Whiteside | Minister of Mental Health and Addictions MLA for New Westminster;
Jagrup Brar | Minister of State for Trade
MLA for Surrey-Fleetwood;
Janet Routledge | Parliamentary Secretary for Labour
MLA for Burnaby North;
Ronna-Rae Leonard
MLA for Courtenay-Comox
Make no mistake — whether Premier David Eby, his Chief of Staff, Matt Smith, or any of the Premier’s senior advisors choose to acknowledge such — less than 8 months out from the October 19th provincial election, the British Columbia New Democratic Party is in crisis, perhaps not so great as to cost them the election (although, it’s still early), but in bad enough shape with Selina Robinson’s announcement, are now set to win far fewer seats than most polls have predicted to date.
We’ll know the fall-out from the current NDP fiasco when new polling is released.
B.C. United party leader, Kevin Falcon, gleeful at the fortuitous turn of events for his party
The beneficiary of Selina Robinson’s announcement? B.C. United leader, Kevin Falcon, who with Ms. Robinson’s announcement on Wednesday effectively doubled the party’s probable seat count come election night.
Voters won’t vote for a divided party, for a party in crisis or disarray, a party focused on internal politics and not the business of the people.
Examples are legion.
Former Social Credit party leader, and Premier of the province of British Columbia, Bill Vander Zalm
After 36 years in power, from 1952 to 1991, with a brief three-year NDP interregnum from 1972 – 1975, British Columbia’s Social Credit party held the reins of power in Victoria. When the party fell into dysfunction, disorder and vicious internal in-fighting, with the forced resignation of then Socred Premier Bill Vander Zalm mid-term, in 1991 the Socreds lost 40 out of 47 seats, the Social Credit party dying soon after, never again to be seen on the B.C. political spectrum.
Sam Sullivan, one-term Non-Partisan Association, Mayor of the City of Vancouver, 2005 – 2008
In Vancouver, prior to the 2002 municipal election, Jennifer Clarke stole the Non-Partisan Association Mayoral nomination away from popular, sitting NPA Mayor Philip Owen. Ms. Clarke lost her bid to become Mayor in a landslide vote for novice COPE Mayoralty candidate Larry Campbell, the NPA losing 7 of their nine seats, all 7 of those seats won by COPE candidates for Council. The same thing happened to the NPA in 2008, when Peter Ladner took the NPA Mayoral nomination away from sitting Mayor Sam Sullivan. The NPA lost five of their 6 seats on Council.
Premier David Eby has to get his government’s house in order if the New Democratic Party plans on holding power post October 19, 2024.
If David Eby thinks his self-serving, off-putting, scurrilous, poorly conceived “Selina made a mistake” note above will go any way to resolving his and his government’s dispute with Selina Robinson, he’s dreaming in washed out shades of grey.
Anything short of an apology to Ms. Robinson, and the province, won’t do.
Note from VanRamblings: “It’s time to be a mensch, Mr. Premier. You like women. You trust women. You’re a good man. For the sake of your government, and in the interest of the people of British Columbia, you will have to get over of your barely concealed animus for Ms. Robinson, and do right be her. Nothing less will do.”
A Litany of Self-Inflicted, Own Goal BC NDP Disasters
Andrea Reimer, Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination candidate & future Environment Minister
The roll-out of the campaign to elect Andrea Reimer — a certain future Minister of the Environment, should the NDP be re-elected in October — was little short of a disaster, with the unexpected entry of a sitting Vancouver City Councillor in the, now, race to secure the nomination in Vancouver-Little Mountain.
Mitzi Dean, one in a long line of failed British Columbia Ministers of Children and Family Development
Former Minister of Children and Family Development Mitzi Dean’s failure to keep an eye on her Ministry, as two Indigenous children in Chilliwack died on her watch.
The ongoing — not slated to end anytime soon — weeks’ long, badly mishandled by the Premier melodrama of former BC NDP Finance Minister Selina Robinson’s — for whom there is no love loss between the two, on either side — unfortunate and regrettable leave-taking from, first, Cabinet where she was Minister Responsible for Post Secondary Education, and now from the party itself … what a godawful, effin mess … that reflects badly on the Premier, his caucus and his government.
VanRamblings will have more to say on the matter, in the days to come.
A final, kind of sad note: yesterday, March 6th was Selina Robinson’s 60th birthday.
The BC NDP being the finely-tuned machine that they are, yesterday morning following the announcement of the decision by British Columbia’s current Environment Minister George Heyman to not seek re-election in the upcoming October 19th provincial election, Mr. Heyman introduced past three-term Vancouver City Councillor Andrea Reimer as his, and the New Democratic Party’s, chosen candidate to run in the newly-created riding of Vancouver-Little Mountain.
Some big news! I am stepping up for my community and asking for your support to become Vancouver-Little Mountain’s next MLA.
— Andrea Reimer (she/her) (@andreareimer) March 4, 2024
This was a textbook roll-out of a campaign for a BC NDP nomination.
Andrea Reimer, NDP candidate for nomination in the newly-created riding of Vancouver-Little Mountain
Given the problems the BC NDP have suffered the past couple of months — Mitzi Dean’s removal as Minister of Children and Family Development due to incompetence, and the resignation / firing of former Finance Minister Selina Robinson, arising from recent intemperate remarks she made respecting the Hamas-Israeli war — the BC NDP were looking for an unimpeded good news announcement to get their re-election campaign underway on an upbeat note.
And all went well … for an hour.
Endorsements, clockwise: former BC NDP Minister, Melanie Mark; noted environmentalist, Tzeporah Berman; community organizer, Tessica Truong; Squamish Nation Chairperson, Khelsilem
Endorsements rolled in, the party had created a first-rate campaign video featuring Joy McPhail, an impressive ‘Andrea Reimer for Vancouver-Little Mountain’ website was up and on the web almost immediately (if faulty for part of the day), the response to Ms. Reimer’s candidacy almost universally supportive, praising, respectful and hopeful.
Here was the BC NDP with a first-rate candidate for office, a pol of the first order, and a much loved community organizer. The BC NDP and almost all of its supporters were over-the-moon. What a great and glorious day to behold!
An aside
Life in politics isn’t easy. As became abundantly clear in the first half of the video interview with Naomi Klein, on the VanRamblings post we put up yesterday, those with opinions, and those in the public eye are often the subject of vicious commentary. The press weighs in, and are often unkind in their commentary, even if not meaning to be such. Then there are ne-er-do-wells like that Raymond Tomlin character and his VanRamblings blog — well, we all know he’s a scandal and rumour-monger, and any commentary he makes is to be derided and studiously avoided.
We will say at this point that VanRamblings is the subject of an injunction which prevents us from writing about Vancouver City Councillor, Christine Boyle. Tossing caution to the wind, and despite the possibility of VanRamblings being thrown into the hoosegow, we will today write about the esteemed Ms. Boyle, despite the dire consequences it may bring to our personal safety, and freedom to move about.
A OneCity Vancouver poster for Christine Boyle’s 2018 candidacy for Vancouver City Council
Upon being elected to Vancouver City Council in 2018, Christine Boyle found herself turning to Andrea Reimer, a successful three-term Vision Vancouver City Councillor, who mentored Ms. Boyle, and over the years became a confidante and something of a mother confessor. Both Ms. Reimer and Ms. Boyle had sat as City Councillors, both are women of some note, both are relatively young yet well-experienced, both share much in common. Ms. Reimer became a sympathetic ear for Ms. Boyle, and a source of valued input and counsel for the novice Councillor.
To say that Ms. Reimer and Ms. Boyle are close would be to understate the matter.
I’ve spent many years working on issues that matter to residents in Little Mountain, and across Vancouver and BC.
I’m grateful to the many folks who have encouraged me to put my name forward. I look forward to connecting with even more folks in the weeks and months to come. 2/
Imagine the surprise, then — to Andrea Reimer, the BC NDP, Premier David Eby and Environment Minister George Heyman, and many others — when within an hour of the announcement of Andrea Reimer’s BC NDP-endorsed candidacy in the riding of Vancouver-Little Mountain, current Vancouver City Councillor Christine Boyle announced her candidacy to seek the Vancouver-Little Mountain BC NDP nomination!
As we wrote to friends yesterday, “There is no honour in politics.” Sadly.
VanRamblings figures that Andrea Reimer — on one of the best days of her life — must feel devastated. We figure, too, that there are those within the BC NDP — particularly those who were involved in the meticulous roll-out of Andrea Reimer’s BC NDP candidacy in the newly-created riding of Vancouver-Little Mountain — who are feeling a degree of disappointment and anger, directed at Christine Boyle.
From Katie DeRosa’s article in The Vancouver Sun, on the nomination battle …
(Andrea) Reimer has been involved with the NDP riding association for Vancouver-Fairview for years and is now on the executive of the Vancouver-Little Mountain riding.
“George asked me to consider taking it on when he stepped down,” said the 52-year-old.
Reimer said she has first-hand experiences with the gaps in the system, as she spent time as a youth living on the streets and has been renovicted from rental homes more than a dozen times. Reimer was adopted at six months old and only discovered her Cree and Métis ancestry in 2015.
“I’ve dedicated my life to closing gaps,” said Reimer, who is now an adjunct professor of practice at UBC’s school of public policy and global affairs.
Reimer said during her time on council she was able to garner support for “world-leading” policies such as renewable energy strategies and pushed for Vancouver to become one of the first local councils to back the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
(Note: We were kidding about the injunction respecting writing about Vancouver City Councillor and BC NDP Vancouver-Little Mountain nominee candidate, Christine Boyle. Although, truth-to-tell, we sometimes wonder, given the vitriol to which we are subject whenever we write about the good Ms. Boyle).
Let us state for the record: Christine Boyle has every right to seek the BC NDP Vancouver-Little Mountain nomination — and, we imagine, feels an obligation to do so, otherwise she would not have put her name forward for nomination.
Councillor Boyle has served her constituents well and with honour in her five years in elected office at Vancouver City Hall. Hers is a voice of compassion and of community, and if we might be so bold as to say so, “fighting for the little guy,” the most recent example? Her (sadly, unsuccessful) work to reinstate the Livable Wage Policy at Vancouver City Hall.
From Katie DeRosa’s article in The Vancouver Sun, on the nomination battle …
(Christine) Boyle, a United Church minister and a social justice advocate who spent years working on the Downtown Eastside, was endorsed by veteran federal NDP MP Libby Davies.
She said it was unusual that Heyman endorsed Reimer but said she doesn’t think that will be a hindrance in the nomination race. Boyle worked on Heyman’s team when he was competing against former Vancouver city councillor Geoff Meggs for the nomination in 2012.
Boyle, who considers Premier David Eby a personal friend, said she has a long history with the riding. She was born and raised in the riding, where her parents still live, and was heavily involved in advocating for those who lost their homes when the Little Mountain social housing complex was demolished.
Boyle, the most left-leaning member of Vancouver council, pushed for Vancouver council to declare a climate emergency and for the city to ramp up its emission reductions efforts. She’s also been a strong proponent for more affordable housing and higher density buildings in residential neighbourhoods.
Boyle said she and Reimer share many of the same values which is why “I do think it’s unfortunate that we’re running against each other.”
“When people look from the outside I think they see conflict,” Reimer said. “But from the inside in politics, nomination (races) between two strong candidates is a sign that your party is very healthy.”
Imagine Ms. Boyle’s desire, if you will, to be a Member of the Legislature within a BC NDP government that sets about — as has consistently proved to be the case — to implement Ms. Boyle’s most cherished personal and political goals, to be an unfettered part of change for the better, in a government that means to do well.
Following a 415-day break from publishing on VanRamblings, we return in 2024 to cover municipal, provincial and federal politics, and much much more.
In the coming months, VanRamblings will cover the second full year of the ABC civic administration at Vancouver City Hall, British Columbia’s upcoming provincial election — to be held on Saturday, October 19th, the first election for David Eby as Premier of the province of British Columbia — and the state of federal politics.
Fifty per cent of the countries across our globe go to the polls this year, so it is likely we’ll cover aspects of some of those elections, most particularly the morass that is politics in the United States.
As has been the case dating back to VanRamblings’ first column — published in February 2004 (the VanRamblings blog created by current Vancouver City Councillor Mike Klassen — who told us, “Raymond, you need a blog. Let me see what I can do.”) — more often than not, Monday through Thursday we’ll write on a number of topics, ranging from homelessness to health, politics to tech, and more.
Friday will be given over to Arts Friday— mainly cinema, we think you’ll find, in a bit of a change, this Thursday focusing on VanRamblings’ Best Picture Oscar predictions, and on Friday, our Best Actress / Actor, etc. predictions — Saturdays to Stories of a Life (although, for the next while we’ll focus on a Redux re-telling of previous Stories), and Sundays to Music, with a focus on the identification of our favourite 100 albums of all time, replete with audio, video and lots of storytelling.
After having been “away” for 59 weeks, chances are that it’ll take us a while to build back our readership — we’ve begun publishing now, in preparation for daily coverage of 2024’s British Columbia provincial election when, if history offers any indication, VanRamblings’ “daily hits” spikes to 10,000 to 50,000+ each day of the 60 days we publish prior to election day, in this case, as above, on October 19th.
As we wrote elsewhere recently, the central thematic structure of VanRamblings going forward will be kindness.
In a world rent with division, misinformation, rabid and accusatory partisanship, a spiritual hollowness, loneliness, anger, and so much more that is disquieting, VanRamblings will make every attempt to be kind to those about whom we write (although, we may / likely will take “entities” to task, when we feel it is deserving).
We do, however, reserve the right to disparage federal Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, who we believes represents an existential threat to the Canada we know and love. Even at that, we will acknowledge Mr. Poilievre’s humanity.
Pierre Poilievre says the quiet part out loud: he disdains ‘brainy people’, knowledge and expertise.
It’s why he and the CPC pose an existential threat to Canadian institutions and our way of life in this country.
Wherever possible, we’ll also attempt to keep columns to under a thousand words (we’re striving for 750 – 800 words), and on some days may publish a much shortened column. The exception, this week, will be Stories of a Life Redux — a republishing of an earlier Stories of a Life column (we will publish original content in this category in the weeks and months to come) — which will run long, at 1400 words.
VanRamblings will celebrate its 20th anniversary next month.
At 73 years of age, the writer-editor of VanRamblings — after several years of health challenges (hey, this getting old thing, it ain’t for wimps, although we’re feeling much better health-wise, at present) — is twenty years older than when we first began publishing on this peripatetic blog and, sad to say, we lack the “sit in front of the computer for 72 consecutive hours to publish a column” energy we once did.
The above said, we don’t believe we’ve lost a step when it comes to forming an opinion, and the recording of that opinion, which some may see as salutary, while others may have feelings on the matter that are not exactly in accord.
