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#BCPoli | British Columbia Goes to the Polls on October 19, 2024

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Two hundred and eight-five days from today, British Columbians go to the polls to elect a new government.

Will the citizens of British Columbia return the government of David Eby to an unprecedented third term in government for the British Columbia New Democratic Party? The polls seem to think so — but if you follow politics, you know that a day in politics can be equivalent to a year in the political realm. Whatever the polls may say, it is not until the votes of citizens have been counted that determines the “winner”, and who will form government in the succeeding four years.

As is the case in every election, much is on the line.

Health care, housing, and the cost of living feature as primary issues.

Which of the four main provincial parties do British Columbians believe is best fit to serve the public interest?

If David Coletto’s Abacus poll is any indication, the BC NDP — with its prohibitive lead in the polls — has the confidence of British Columbians, the citizens of our fine province seemingly set to return David Eby’s competent, hands-on, activist administration to government, come the late evening of Saturday, October 19, 2024.

Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and in northern British Columbia.

According to Mr. Coletto …

Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.

The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).

The Abacus poll found that British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of our province than Canadians in other provinces.

In the Abacus survey, 34% of British Columbians indicated they felt the province is headed in the right direction, 10-points higher than polling taken in Ontario, and 11-points higher than Canadians across Canada feel about our own country.

On October 21, 2021, the Government of British Columbia appointed Justice Nitya Iyer, Linda Tynan and Chief Electoral Officer Anton Boegman to serve as the 2021 commissioners on British Columbia’s Electoral Redistribution Commission. Justice Iyer was appointed the chair. In February 2022, the commission opened public consultations for the redistribution of provincial electoral districts. The Commission’s report, published on October 3, 2022, proposed a total of 93 electoral districts, up from 87 districts. Six new ridings were proposed for areas with rapid population growth, with an additional 71 ridings having their boundaries adjusted to accommodate for geographic, demographic, and other concerns.

According to David Coletto, were an election held today, based on the polling conducted by Abacus Data, the BC NDP would win an unprecedented 80 seats in the Brltish Columbia legislature, with Kevin Falcon’s BC United Party (formerly BC Liberal party) winning a mere 6 seats (including Mr. Falcon’s home riding of Vancouver Quilchena), the newly formed BC Conservative Party, under the leadership of John Rustad set to win 6 seats, with Green Party of BC leader Sonia Furstenau left as the sole member of her party in the next term of government.

Believe us when we write the projected Abacus Data outcome — and attendant seat count — of the October 19, 2024 British Columbia election is not something any of the provincial party leaders want, or in any way, shape or form hope for.

At present, David Eby’s BC NDP government holds a comfortable 13-seat majority, holding 57 BC NDP seats out of the current 87 seats in the legislative assembly. As such, each elected member of the BC NDP is either a Minister, a Parliamentary Secretary, the House Speaker, or a Deputy Speaker, keeping themselves out of trouble, hard at work, and earning significant monies on top of their annual $115,045.93 salary as an elected Member of the British Columbia Legislature.

Ministers earn a $57,522.97 salary top up, as does the House Speaker, with the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Deputy Speaker earning an extra $40,266.08, and Parliamentary Secretaries taking in an extra $17,256.89 annually.

Were the David Eby government to elect 80 members to the B.C. legislature come Saturday, October 19th, an Eby government would find themselves with 23 MLAs, who — over time — would become disenchanted, unfulfilled and ready to either break with the party over environmental or other issues — to form their own party —  while creating havoc within the BC NDP, leaving the government in disarray.

One can only hope that B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon is correct when he says that BC United is the choice for any British Columbian who wants change.

By election day, Falcon told The Tyee, the Conservative support will return to his party, making it competitive again with the NDP. That kind of turnaround has happened before, he added, giving the example of Christy Clark’s poll-defying BC Liberal victory in 2013 and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim’s ABC winning in Vancouver with a new party and an unfamiliar name.

For British Columbians of conscience, let’s hope for a victory and a comfortable majority for the British Columbia New Democratic Party come October 19, 2024, with a sizeable B.C. United opposition, a smattering of elected B.C. Conservative MLAs, and a sizeable Green Party of B.C. contingent of progressive, hold the BC NDP government’s feet to the fire, members of the B.C. legislative assembly.


Jordan Leichnitz, the NDP member of the Curse of Politics podcast, in the Oddball Predictions category, has a prediction on the outcome of the 2024 BC provincial election, and how each of the parties will do.

#BCPoli | David Robert Patrick Eby, 37th Premier of British Columbia

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As of today, Friday, November 18, 2022, David Eby becomes the 37th Premier of the Province of British Columbia. Glad tidings for our province, and glad tidings for the British Columbia New Democratic Party, B.C.’s current sitting government.

David Eby, the duly elected three-term Member of the Legislature, who since his election to Victoria in 2013, has more than ably represented his many grateful constituents who reside in his Vancouver Point-Grey riding, as a community activist extraordinaire, and an on the ground advocate for any constituent who walks through the doors of his constituency office located on West Broadway just west of Macdonald, in the heart of the welcoming westside Kitsilano neighbourhood.

David Eby and David Eby alone will salvage a somewhat long in the tooth BC New Democratic government, as a steady as she goes but decidedly activist Premier intent on getting things done for all British Columbians, resident in the North, throughout the Interior, on Vancouver Island & across B.C.’s urban metropolises.

David Eby may well be the most sympathetic and authentic political figure this province has ever seen — just you wait and see — and as such represents not just the great hope of the BC NDP to retain government past the 2024 provincial election, but the great hope for all British Columbians who, over the next 24 months, will come to cherish David Eby as the once-in-a-generation inspirational leader who will lead our province through the certain-to-be challenging times ahead.

Premier David Eby has his work cut out for him, but from all reports he’s going to hit the ground running.

In an October 7, 2022 column in The Vancouver Sun, arising from an extensive poll by Angus Reid gauging the rate of satisfaction British Columbians felt for the incumbent John Horgan government, columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote …

“An opinion poll this week from the Angus Reid institute indicated the public is far from content with the NDP’s handling of major issues. On homelessness, the opioid crisis, labour shortages and seniors care — the verdict was negative: “poor/very poor job.”

Those responding to the survey gave the NDP government a 73% negative rating on health care, a 77% negative on dealing with the cost of living, and an 85% negative rating for its handling of housing affordability.

New Democrats should be worried about what happens when Premier John Horgan, the most popular British Columbia leader in decades, exits the Premier’s office, leaving behind only public discontent over how the government has been handling the major issues.”

Then Premier-designate David Eby’s response to the Angus Reid poll, and Mr. Palmer’s concerning column in The Vancouver Sun?


Premier David Eby releases 100-day plan for B.C. housing, health & safety

An article in the Canadian Press reads: “The B.C. New Democrats’ newly minted leader and Premier is promising “significant action” to bolster the province’s affordable housing, health-care system, public safety and environmental policies.”

At a press conference, David Eby rolled out his plans for his first 100 days.

“I’m setting down a marker today on these priorities for our government: housing, health care, the environment, public safety,” he said at a news conference.

“At the end of those 100 days, you will have seen announcements (and) activity from a government focused on delivering results for British Columbians that set out the groundwork for how, in the next two years, we are going to deliver significant change for British Columbians.”

Eby campaigned for leader on a housing plan that includes a $500-million fund to provide grants to non-profits & First Nations to buy rental properties, pledging to fast-track approvals & construction of multi-family housing projects.

On the health-care front, Premier Eby said his government will be looking at the process used to assess people with international credentials “to get them working as quickly as possible” to address a dire need in the health system.

When it comes to concerns over public safety, Premier Eby said there are issues where the criminal justice system is not responding they way it needs to.

“You will see action from our government on this issue. But what you will see is action that actually addresses the core issue that is causing so much chaos in communities: the issues of mental health, addiction, homelessness, and the need to intervene and break the cycle that people are involved in,” he said.

Mr. Eby is also promising to redirect fossil fuel subsidies to clean energy.

“British Columbians are really clear, we cannot continue to subsidize fossil fuels and expect clean energy to manifest somehow. We cannot continue to expand fossil fuel infrastructure and hit our climate goals,” he said.

One week ago, David Eby released a bold plan to take ownership of the DTES.


David Eby, then a lawyer with the B.C. Civil Liberties Association, speaks to reporters in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside in 2009. Photo by Ric Ernst /PNG

The area is worse than ever, says Eby, who knows whereof he speaks. As a young, activist lawyer, Eby got his start representing the residents of the DTES, writes Vaughn Palmer in a November 11th article in the Vancouver Sun.

Instead of joining the legions of buck-passers, Premier Eby proposes that his government take ownership of the troubled area.

“The key piece that’s been missing has been a single level of government to bottom line what’s happening in the neighbourhood,” Eby declared early in his bid for the NDP leadership.

“The crisis in the Downtown Eastside is well beyond what the city of Vancouver can take on, on their own. Ottawa is too far away.”

“The opportunity here is for the province to take a leadership role and say we will take responsibility. We will co-ordinate this. We’ll work with the city. We’ll work with the feds. We’ll work with the large Indigenous population down there.”

Measures will include replacing the single-room occupancy hotels “that are burning down, that people won’t live in, and replacing them with appropriate housing,” says Eby.

He’ll also replace the sidewalk-clogging tent cities that are the area’s most obvious sign of deterioration.

“I don’t support encampments,” Eby told Richard Zussman of Global TV. “I don’t think they’re a solution to homelessness. I don’t think they’re safe for the people who live in them. I’ve seen too many fires, too many injuries. People have died.”

Another element of Premier  Eby’s thinking about the crisis on the streets emerged back in August when he came out in favour of involuntary treatment for people who overdose repeatedly.

“When someone overdoses twice in a day and they show up in the emergency room for the second time, a second overdose in the same day, the idea that we release that person back out into the street to overdose the third time and die or to have profound brain injury or just to come back to the emergency room again, seems very bizarre,” Eby told Postmedia’s Katie DeRosa.

“We need to have better interventions and that could include and should include involuntary care for people to make sure they at least have a chance,” he said.

Make no mistake, Premier David Eby means to make a difference, as PostMedia’s Katie DeRosa wrote just two days ago, David Eby, as an …

“Idealist and pragmatist. Activist and member of the establishment. Workaholic and yoga dad. Fixer of the root causes of crime, housing unaffordability and a crumbling health care system, intractable issues he’s under pressure to make progress on before he faces B.C. Liberal leader Kevin Falcon in the 2024 election.

Those around him say the 46-year-old father of two is driven, laser-focused and relentless and will likely expect the same from members of his soon-to-be-named Cabinet, the swearing-in of Premier Eby’s new and revitalized Cabinet set for December 7th. He’s also not afraid to defy those he believes are standing in the way of progress, which is why he has promised to override local mayors reluctant to approve affordable housing projects.

“His approach is calm, methodical, considerate, and broad-thinking,” says Joy MacPhail, the former NDP Cabinet Minister and interim party leader, and ICBC Board Chair when the reforms were underway in 2018, who remains a mentor to Eby.”


Premier-delegate David Eby and his transition team. Left to right: Chief of Staff Matt Smith; co-chair of the transition team, Doug White, chair of B.C.’s First Nations Justice Council & former chief of the Snuneymuxw First Nation; Premier David Eby; and former BC NDP leader and Finance Minister, Carole James, a co-chair of the transition team. Photo by Darren Stone /Victoria Times Colonist

David Eby was sworn in as Premier at the Musqueam Community Centre, the location a powerful symbol of reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, Eby told PostMedia’s Katie DeRosa.

Mr. Eby took the oath of office at 10 a.m. this morning in front of Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin at the community centre on the Musqueam First Nation.

“I am excited to be taking this important step close to home where my family and the people who have always supported me live,” Eby said Tuesday in a statement.

Mr. Eby said he’s grateful to Chief Wayne Sparrow, the Musqueam councillors and the Musqueam people for hosting the ceremony in their community.

“Because of their efforts, this event will be a powerful symbol of a shared vision for a province that delivers results for all British Columbians, in close partnership with Indigenous Peoples,” he said.

The community centre at 6735 Salish Dr. in Vancouver is in the Vancouver-Quilchena riding, which is represented by B.C. Liberal Leader Kevin Falcon. David Eby, 46, is the MLA for the neighbouring riding, Vancouver-Point Grey.

Moving the swearing-in ceremony to Vancouver is also an indication Premier Eby will likely conduct more government business from Vancouver, to be closer to his family. Mr. Eby’s wife, Dr. Cailey Lynch, is a family physician, and the happily married couple have two children, 8-year-old Ezra and 3-year-old Iva.

#BCPoli2022 | Prediction: David Eby To Become 37th British Columbia Premier

BC Politics, Politics, , ,

At some point on Wednesday, October 19th, former British Columbia NDP Finance Minister Elizabeth Cull, who is overseeing the leadership race that will select the next leader of British Columbia’s New Democratic Party, will make a decision as to whether to allow Anjali Appadurai to run for the party’s leadership.

VanRamblings believes Ms. Cull will deny Ms. Appadurai’s controversial bid to become the next leader of the British Columbia’s New Democratic Party, and as the party currently leads government in Victoria, our province’s 37th Premier select.

From the outset, Ms. Appadurai’s application to a B.C. New Democratic Party leadership contender has been fraught with controversy.


Atiya Jaffar (left) and Anjali Appadurai. Jaffar volunteered to pay membership fees for the prospective BC NDP leadership contender, while on an Instagram live event hosted by Ms. Appadurai. Ms. Appadurai and supporter Jaffar have been under internal investigation for alleged vote buying. Photo: Instagram

“It’s a handful of people that get to decide who our next premier is,” Jaffar told viewers. “Message me if you need the $10, because I’m happy to provide that for you.”

Section 255 of the Elections Act states that an individual or organization must not give, pay, lend or induce an individual to vote for or against a particular candidate. Sept. 4th was the deadline to sign-up new members to decide whether Appadurai or frontrunner David Eby should replace outgoing Premier, John Horgan, this fall.

Jaffar is the senior digital specialist at 350.org, a U.S.-based environmental charity that organizes anti-oil and gas pipeline protests.

Jaffar was integral in the Shut Down Canada campaign in the first quarter of 2020, employing social media platforms to promote illegal blockades at the Port of Vancouver, Deltaport, the Granville Bridge and on CP Rail tracks in East Vancouver. Ms. Jaffar was also involved in the 2020 sit-in at Eby’s Point Grey riding office.

The Dogwood Initiative — a non-profit public interest group based in Victoria, British Columbia — is currently under investigation by Elections BC over whether its use of resources to run a membership drive for Appadurai is an improper in-kind donation. Elections BC has yet to rule on whether the Dogwood Initiative has improperly interfered in the BC NDP leadership race.

“For those who support political parties other than the BC NDP but still want to have a say in this race, you could choose to pause your membership and return after you cast your vote,” wrote Dogwood campaigns manager Alexandra Woodsworth.

“It’s also worth noting that parties don’t share membership lists with one another and there is no penalty for an overlap in your membership as you switch back and forth between parties.”

Anjali Appadurai shared the article on various social media platforms.

From the time Ms. Appadurai announced her bid to become the next — unelected — Premier of the province of British Columbia, Appadurai has criticized a panoply of government policies, declaring David Eby as an establishment candidate.

David Eby, whose roots are in legal advocacy on behalf of homeless and underhoused residents of Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside, was appointed British Columbia’s Attorney General in 2017, when the BC New Democrats formed government. Mr. Eby is credited with cleaning up the mess at ICBC, and the money laundering crisis, launching the Cullen Commission (Commission of Inquiry Into Money Laundering in British Columbia), in May 2019. Since the November 2020 B.C. election, Mr. Eby has also acted as British Columbia Minister Responsible for Housing.

Neither camp has released specific numbers, but sources believe Appadurai’s campaign recruited about 11,000 members, perhaps twice as many as was the case with Eby. The party is believed to have had roughly 11,000 members entering the leadership campaign — although the latter 11,000 membership figure is in dispute, as the BC NDP earlier this year required party members to re-apply for provincial NDP membership, separate from the federal party. This reporter was advised that at campaign outset, the party had only 6,000 active members — which, if the case, would give Appadurai an insurmountable lead in the leadership race.

From marching on the picket lines with members of the BCGEU, when union members were picketing and on strike seeking a new contract — settled by the government at 13½% over three years — to announcing that her government would implement a 25% across the board pay increase for nurses, just as the BC Nurses Union was successfully settling their contract with the government, Ms. Appadurai has challenged British Columbia New Democratic Party government orthodoxy, and the actual functioning of the government that she purports to want to lead.

Anjali Appadurai has stated that she would cancel the Site C dam project — near completion, and said to be completed in 2024 — cancel the Trans Mountain pipeline project, and eliminate government subsidies of the LNG project in the North of our province — proposing to shut the project down entirely, should she become the leader of the provincial NDP — while also, with the stroke of a pen, eliminating the British Columbia government’s subsidy of the province’s fossil fuel industry.

If such action were to be taken by an Anjali Appadurai-led B.C. government — a government which was not elected to a majority in 2020 proposing the policies Ms. Appadurai espouses — thousands of workers in the north would be thrown out of work, including members of the 60 Indigenous bands who are currently working on the Site C, LNG and Trans Mountain pipeline projects, never mind the multi-billion dollar breach of contract law suits that would be filed in B.C. Courts.

The above written, VanRamblings is hardly a supporter of the Site C dam project, nor are we particularly thrilled with the twinning of the Trans Mountain pipeline, not to mention that we believe that the LNG project portends not only environmental degradation, but given the number of earthquakes up north in recent weeks and a months, disaster and tragedy for those who live in the North.

So, why then are we seeming to oppose Anjali Appadurai’s bid to lead the British Columbia New Democratic Party? The answer: realpolitik, defined as “politics based on practical and pragmatic factors rather than on moral, theoretical, ideological or ethical objectives, commonly known as the politics of reality.”

Here’s the bottom line: Anjali Appardurai has not secured the support of one sitting BC NDP MLA elected to government and sitting in the Legislature in Victoria, while David Eby has the bold support of 48 members of the New Democratic Party caucus, out of 57 elected NDP, the 9 other MLAs prevented from weighing in, so as to avoid a conflict of interest (think: the Premier, Deputy Premier, Speaker of the House & Deputy Speakers, and the government house whip, and others).

Why would Anjali Appadurai want to lead a party that doesn’t want her, doesn’t agree with her policy orientation, would pass a motion of non-confidence in her, and refuse to seat her as Premier, if she achieved the majority support of “party members”, in what many believe would be a hostile takeover of the party?

If Ms. Appadurai is truly a supporter of the BC NDP, as she states, why would she risk throwing the party, the government and the province into chaos were she to win the B.C. New Democratic Party’s leadership race, the inevitable end result of which would be the rejection of her leadership by members of the BC NDP caucus?

There is precedence, recent precedence, for a political party rejecting the application of a leadership hopeful.  For instance …

  • Aaron Gunn whose bid to become leader of the B.C. Liberal party was soundly rejected for espousing views that “we believe are inconsistent with the Liberal party’s commitment to reconciliation, diversity and acceptance of all people in B.C.”
  • Patrick Brown, whose recent bid to lead the federal Conservative party was rejected by the Tory party committee charged with running the leadership race, who unanimously disqualified the one time leader of the Ontario Conservative Party, current Brampton Mayor, and Conservative Party leadership hopeful.

The party decides.

VanRamblings believes that late Wednesday morning, or early in the afternoon, Elizabeth Cull will announce that Anjali Appadurai’s application to enter the BC NDP leadership race has been rejected. Ms. Cull will explain why. The decision as to whether to accept or reject Ms. Appardurai’s application is entirely a matter for the party to decide. The party has decided; it is now up to Elizabeth Cull to carry out the wishes of members of the Executive Council of the BC NDP, and of all the members of the BC NDP caucus — lest the province be thrown into political chaos.

Time for John Horgan to step down, and David Eby to step forward to become British Columbia’s 37th Premier, and get on with the job of governing our province.