Category Archives: Politics

Decision 2021 | E-Day 2021 | The State of the Race | Election Day | Vote Today!

Decision Canada 2021, Politics, , , ,


The final Nanos / Globe and Mail poll in #Elxn44. Now we simply await the outcome of the election.

Well, here we are, Election Day — Monday, September 20th. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to the outcome, but a Liberal minority seems probable.

In the final VanRamblings #Elxn44 written prior to E-Day — we’ll be weighing in again tomorrow, Tuesday, September 21st, once the results of today’s federal election have been tabulated — we tried to do our very best to make sense of where Canadians stood heading to the polls to choose the next government of Canada.

Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party of Canada

A few days ago, VanRamblings believed that Erin O’Toole had an even odds chance of forming a majority — or,  at the very least, a significant minority government — once (almost) all the votes have been counted late on the evening of Monday, September 20th. With the rise of the People’s Party of Canada, and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s decision last week to bring in a vaccine passport, we no longer believe that prospects for the Tories forming government to be all that rosy.

As may be seen in the Nanos poll above, the Liberal Party and Conservative Party remain in a neck-and-neck battle to determine who will form the next government of Canada. By August 29th, two weeks after Prime Minister Trudeau had called the election the Tories’ focused, policy-driven campaign had Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives at 37% in the polls, while the Liberals’ lacklustre, enervating campaign had their prospects in the doldrums, garnering the support of only 27.7% of the Canadian electorate. And then, the following series of events unfolded …

1. Liberal ads began to appear on the nightly news, raising concerns about a Tory platform that would “take Canada backward“;

2. Erin O’Toole began to flip flop on many of the core issues contained in the Tory handbook: gun control (“We’ll keep the current ban in place, but will review it in the first year.”); climate change (“We’re committed to carbon pricing, just not the Liberal carbon pricing plan.”); abortion (“I believe in a woman’s right to choose. Whether or not, we choose to place limits on abortion will be left to the members of my government.”); transit (“My government would be prepared to move forward on funding transit. Yes, I recognize that this represents a departure from what you see in the Tory handbook, but …”); a projected deficit that exceeds the Liberal party proposal (“We’ll work to eliminate the deficit in the next 10 years. For now, though, there is spending required to get us out of the pandemic.”); the pandemic (“The Conservative Party under my leadership will support vaccine passports, and will work with the provinces to implement this necessary restriction on Canadians’ access rights, as a meaningful way to wrestle COVID-19 to the ground.”);

3. Québec. Never before in Canadian political history has a question asked by the moderator of a Leaders’ Debate so changed the complexion, and possible outcome, of a federal election.

As valid as Shachi Kurl’s questioning was of Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet on the inherent discriminatory aspects of Québec’s Bill 21 — banning Québec citizens from wearing religious symbols, and mandating that one’s face be uncovered to give or receive specific public services — the contentious nature of her question had two immediate effects: a) Coalition Avenir Québec Premier François Legault came out the next morning, urging Québec voters to cast their ballot for the Conservative Party, and their leader Erin O’Toole — who would not interfere in provincial jurisdiction, he said, stating that an O’Toole government would not take Bill 21 to court; and, b) support for the Bloc Québécois shot through the roof, while cutting in half support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party;

4. The People’s Party of Canada. At the outset of the election, the far right-of-centre, anti-vaxxer, Trump-like People’s Party stood at 2.8% in the polls. As Erin O’Toole began to flip flop on the issues, though, the libertarian “fringe element” in the Conservative Party left in droves to join either Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party, or Jay Hill’s northern B.C. and prairie-based and separatist Maverick Party, causing support for those parties to spike dramatically. Some Ontario/Alberta polls have the People’s Party polling as high as 11%.

In the waning days of #Elxn44, Tory campaign officials made contact with disaffected members of the Conservative Party who’ve now joined the People’s Party or the Maverick Party, to bring them back into the fold, by re-assuring them that …

“Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party is your Conservative Party. We all believe in the same things: we all want our civil rights, and don’t want to see them abridged by mask mandates or vaccine cards, or anything of the sort. Let me assure you that we’ll move forward on reversing Justin Trudeau’s gun control legislation. Just like in the U.S., we’ll introduce legislation limiting a woman’s right to a child-killing abortion. And we’ve got no intention of acting on a job-killing climate action plan. We’re this close to achieving what you want to see from your federal government — but every vote for the People’s or the Maverick party is a vote that will ensure that a Justin Trudeau government will be returned to Ottawa next Monday. Don’t let that happen! C’mon back to the Conservative Party. We need you!”

https://twitter.com/EDenhoff/status/1436059426335576075?s=20

If the Conservative Party outreach to disaffected Tory members proves even partially successful, Erin O’Toole could win a minority government this evening. If enough members of the People’s or the Maverick party cast a ballot not for either of these fringe, right-of-centre parties, Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives might even win a majority — possibly a massive majority — government tonight, although with each passing hour that potential outcome seems increasingly unlikely.

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada

With anti-vaxx protesters dogging Justin Trudeau’s every campaign stop throughout his campaign for office, hurling gravel at the Prime Minister and shouting misogynist comments about his wife Sophie, in the final week of the campaign, Mr. Trudeau has found a vigorous new energy, his campaign now in a more spirited & dynamic gear, taking the fight for “a better Canada” to Canadians across our land.

As occurred in both the 2015 and 2019 federal election campaigns, as Election Day draws nearer, and the prospect of a right-of-centre “backward” Conservative Party once again assuming the reins of power in Ottawa looms, support for the Liberal Party has burgeoned, mostly — almost exclusively — at the expense of the long woebegotten democratic socialist party of Canada,  our beloved New Democrats.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh did his cause no favours by failing to answer any of the questions placed to him on Tuesday evening by chief CBC political correspondent, Rosemary Barton, who pretty much savaged the under prepared and decidedly underwhelming (at least on Tuesday evening) leader of Canada’s fourth party.


Progressive’s concern: Erin O’Toole praises Alberta’s UCP leader Jason Kenney on COVID-19 response. Late news: O’Toole had asked  Mr. Kenney to delay til next Tuesday his vaccine passport announcement.

In the past two weeks, support for the NDP has dropped from a campaign high of 28.4% to its current 17.5% E-Day Nanos poll standing. For most progressive voters, a national child care programme; maintenance of the Canada Child Benefit — which has not only served the interests of young families, but also reduced the child poverty rate in Canada by 40%; and a continued ban on the murderous assault weapons that have killed and maimed so many of our fellow citizens matters.

Implementation of a global best climate action plan, continuing the ban on tanker traffic along British Columbia’s pristine coast; support for the diversity that is Canada in 2021 (which will include a ban on conversion therapy, and an anti-racism strategy that will support and ensure the safety of all persons of colour), while bringing Afghan refugees and Yazidi women exploited and imprisoned by ISIS to Canada — and a hundred other programmes championed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government will cause many progressive voters to cast their ballot strategically this upcoming Monday, voting for the Liberal or New Democratic Party candidate best positioned to defeat the Conservative Party candidate.

Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government mounted a massive response to the pandemic, quarterbacking an unprecedented campaign against the threat of a virus that had shaken the economy, legislating necessary programmes to keep Canadians safe and economically whole, while procuring 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and funding three new biomanufacturing facilities to manufacture up to four million doses per month at home, to ensure Canada’s ability to produce sufficient vaccine doses to meet our country’s need.


Justin Trudeau bringing his friend Dominic LeBlanc back into Cabinet following his cancer battle.

Last Tuesday, Justin Trudeau’s longtime friend and recent Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc told the Toronto Star’s Tonda McCharles that he thought the Liberals might win a majority government this upcoming Monday. VanRamblings believes Mr. LeBlanc is dreaming in technicolour — although some pundits believe a majority Liberal government is possible, just not probable.

Unless the New Democratic Party vote completely collapses — which seems unlikely, with current electoral prospects suggesting the NDP will, perhaps, better their 2019 election outing, when they achieved a near record low of 15.98% voter approval, and 24 seats in Parliament — the Liberals will likely win a stand pat minority around the 157-seat mark, or should the New Democratic Party really suffer in the voting booth, a minimally increased minority government. A majority federal Liberal government is not in the cards, or so it would seem.Democracy. Late on Monday evening we’ll know the will of the Canadian people.


The final #Elxn44 Curse of Politics podcast, E-Day, Monday, September 20, 2021 | A Liberal minority.


The Curse of Politics podcast, Saturday, September 18, 2021 | The campaign is over —  that’s all she wrote.


The Curse of Politics podcast, Friday, September 17, 2021
David Herle states in Friday’s Curse of Politics podcast that on voting day, the NDP vote will collapse.


The Curse of Politics podcast, Thursday, September 16, 2021

Decision 2021 | Day 32 | Hubris As A Motivating and Ill Factor in Politics

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Liberal Prime Ministers Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien, two men who really don’t like one another

In 1990, after having lost two elections to Brian Mulroney, Liberal Party of Canada leader John Turner tendered his resignation, and asked the party to hold a convention to select a new leader.

Five leadership hopefuls entered the race, the most prominent of whom were  …

    • Paul Martin, 51, MP for LaSalle—Émard, Québec since 1988, and Opposition Critic for Treasury Board, Housing, and Urban Affairs; as well as former president and CEO of Canada Steamship Lines;
    • Sheila Copps, 37, Member of Parliament for Hamilton East since 1984 and Opposition Critic for the Environment and Social Policy, who from 1981 to 1984 — before entering federal politics — had been a Member of Provincial Parliament in Ontario;
    • Jean Chrétien, 56, who had placed second to Turner at the 1984 Liberal leadership convention. As the MP for Saint-Maurice, Québec from — 1963 until 1986 — Mr. Chrétien had served in several senior portfolios under Pierre Elliott Trudeau, including Industry Minister, Finance Minister, Energy Minister, and Justice Minister and was the minister responsible for constitutional negotiations from 1980 to 1982 when the Constitution of Canada was patriated and the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms negotiated and ratified.

During the course of the leadership campaign, Mr. Chrétien and Mr. Martin developed an intense dislike for one another, an enmity that continues to this day.

Mr. Chrétien thought Mr. Martin to be a servant only to the wealthy elite — given Mr. Martin’s family ownership of the behemoth that was Canada Steamship Lines, that Mr. Martin lacked a touch for “the common people”,  and that Mr. Martin was unfit for the cut and thrust of federal politics, as well as utterly naïve politically.

On the other hand, while Mr. Martin held great respect for Mr. Chrétien and all he had achieved, his  assessment of Mr. Chrétien was no more generous. Mr. Martin thought Mr. Chrétien’s le petit gars de Shawinigan persona to be disingenous, was far too populist, and sensed in Mr. Chretien, an utter lack of a “moral centre.”

The 1990 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election was held on June 23, 1990 in Calgary, Alberta. The party chose former Deputy Prime Minister Jean Chrétien as its new leader, replacing the party’s outgoing leader.

When Jean Chrétien won a massive majority government on Monday, October 25, 1993, when forming Cabinet, Prime Minister Chrétien was quick to appoint Paul Martin as his government’s Finance Minister, assigning him the thankless task of wrestling to the ground the $42 billion annual deficit left to him by former Tory PM Brian Mulroney, and cutting in half the $840 billion accumulated long term debt.

Paul Martin proved an able Finance Minister, and by the time Mr. Chrétien had resigned his office on December 13, 2003, with Paul Martin installed as Canada’s 21st Prime Minister only nine short days later, Jean Chrétien left behind a Liberal corruption legacy that would keep the Liberal Party out of office for 10 long years.

The sponsorship / Sponsorgate / or AdScam scandal, as it came to be known, involved illicit and even illegal activities ostensibly established to counter the actions of the Parti Québécois government intent on achieving Québec independence, with federal monies awarded to Liberal Party-linked ad firms in return for little or no work, in which these firms maintained Liberal organizers or fundraisers on their payrolls or donated back part of the money to the Liberal Party.

Prime Minister Martin was incensed when he learned of the malfeasance of Jean Chrétien, his hated rival, confronting the former Prime Minister …

“Paul, Paul, Paul,” Mr. Chrétien intoned to Prime Minister Martin. “There is only one avenue for you to take. Tell the public that you will order a full investigation of the circumstance that has been brought to your attention. Of course, you’re not really going to conduct an investigation. You’ll do what I did for 10 years: let the public move on from a momentary concern, and continue governing. A failure to do so on your part will mean an early end to your time in office, and a long period of time in the wilderness for the Liberal party.”

Prime Minister Martin’s response to Mr. Chrétien: the establishment of a Commission of Inquiry into the Sponsorship Program and Advertising Activities, headed by Justice John Gomery — which came to be known as “the Gomery Commission.” When reporting out, the Commission found that millions had been awarded in contracts without a proper bidding system, that millions more had been awarded for work that was never done, and that the Financial Administration Act had repeatedly been breached by the government of Jean Chrétien.

The Gomery Commission Report created a firestorm, the scandal featured as a significant factor in the lead-up to the 2006 federal election when, after more than 12 years in power, the Liberals were defeated by the Conservatives — not to return to power in Ottawa for more than 9 years.

Had Prime Minister Martin taken Jean Chrétien’s “advice”, more than likely he would have served many years as Canada’s 21st Prime Minister.

That’s where the hubris comes in.

Hubris derives from the Latin adrogare, meaning one has a right to demand certain attitudes and behaviours from other people. Hubris, it must be observed, generally indicates a loss of contact with reality, and an overestimation of one’s own moral good and capabilities. As such, hubris is often considered to be a fatal, or near fatal, character flaw that can become, if left unchecked, so obsessively all-consuming that it, more often than not, will lead to the complainant’s downfall.

As Prime Minister Martin sought to (rightfully, perhaps) “besmirch” and vilify the legacy of his hated rival —  the “villainous and contemptible” Mr. Chrétien —  Mr. Martin succeeded only in bringing his time in government to a premature and inglorious end, assigning himself to the scrap heap of history as a “failed leader”, while Jean Chrétien’s multi-term era as Prime Minister continues to be well celebrated through until this day, as a highly revered and universally respected former leader of Canada’s natural governing party, the Liberal Party of Canada.

L-R | People’s Party’s Maxime Bernier,  ex-Tory leader Andrew Scheer + current Tory head, Erin O’Toole

So what does all this have to do with the cost of kombucha at your favourite local grocer, and the current perambulations of #Elxn44?

Think current People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier, former federal Tory leader Andrew Scheer, and current Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, pictured “left to right” above —  which in no way reflects their political positioning.

When, on May 27, 2017, former Speaker of the House and MP for the Saskatchewan riding of Regina—Qu’Appelle, Andrew Scheer, defeated Maxime Bernier —  Member of Parliament (MP) for Beauce from 2006 to 2019, and former Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Conservative government of Stephen Harper — with Mr. Scheer becoming the new leader of the Conservative Party, in what was a hotly contested (and, later, a disputed) leadership bid, which at the very last minute saw Mr. Scheer barely defeat his rival by a mere 50.95% to 49.05% margin, bad blood existed between the two rivals from that moment on, causing an excoriated Mr. Bernier to vow that he would seek revenge against a person he found to be wholly inept, and undeserving of the mantle of Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

In this neck of the woods — way out here on Canada’s west coast, our country’s Pacific playground — we call that kind of revenge … wait for it, wait for it … hubris.

As VanRamblings will express in more detail tomorrow, had Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party not emerged in this election as a rival for the affection of the right wing, libertarian “fringe element” of Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party — rising as high as 15% in some polls, in Alberta and Ontario, and in the process stealing votes  from the Tories — this upcoming Monday, September 20th, Mr. O’Toole would win a majority government, and become Canada’s 24th Prime Minister.

As a  play on and reversal of Michelle Obama’s 2016 campaign dictum to aid Hillary Clinton’s Democratic party campaign for President, Maxime Bernier’s campaign theme in 2021 has emerged as: “When they go low, we go even lower.” And, in the process, thwart the ambitions of both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole — leaders of a political party, whose leadership he believes “rightfully belongs” to him.

Decision 2021 | Day 31 | A New Canada, or Back to an Era of Intolerance?

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St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Liberal MP,  Seamus O’Regan. A necessary listen, and must watch.

On March 9, 2020 the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced legislation that would impose a blanket ban on causing a child to undergo therapy aimed at altering their sexual orientation or gender identity.

The bill would also make it a criminal offence to cause an adult to undergo so-called conversion therapy against their will. It would not prevent a consenting adult from voluntarily undergoing the therapy.

“Conversion therapy is premised on a lie, that being homosexual, lesbian, bisexual or trans is wrong and in need of fixing,” Justice Minister of Canada David Lametti told Members of Parliament moments after tabling the bill in the House of Commons.

“Not only is that false, it sends a demeaning and a degrading message that undermines the dignity of individuals and the LGBTQ2 community as a whole.”

Bill C-6 proposed five new Criminal Code offences.

In addition to the ban on conversion therapy for minors, the legislation sought to outlaw removing a minor from Canada for the purpose of obtaining conversion therapy abroad. Both those offences would be punishable by up to five years in prison, as would forcing an adult to undergo conversion therapy against their will.

The bill would make it an offence to profit from providing conversion therapy or to advertise such — both punishable by up to two years in prison.  The new offences would not apply to parents, friends, teachers, doctors, mental health professionals, school or pastoral counsellors and faith leaders who provide support to individuals questioning their sexual orientation or gender identity.

“There is a difference between asking someone who they are and telling someone that who they are is wrong and in need of fixing,” Justice Minister Lametti told members of the House of Commons, adding that those who engage in ‘open-ended’, supportive discussions with an individual exploring their sexual orientation or gender identity have nothing to fear.”

Conservative Party Members of Parliament Push Back on Bill C-6

In addition to Tamara Jansen, Fraser Valley MP’s Ed Fast and Brad Vis were among the 62 Conservative Party members who voted against Bill C-6, which outlaws the practice of conversion therapy. Vis told The Abbotsford News that he was not concerned about the optics of only Conservatives voting against the bill and that he believed in the party’s right to allow MPs to vote according to their own judgment.

“I have a responsibility to my constituents to make decisions and the Conservative Party was the only party that wasn’t whipped on the vote. I’m more so concerned that charter rights are protected.”

Peace River-Westlock MP Arnold Viersen also voted against the bill, as did fellow Conservative MPs: Prince George- Peace River- Northern Rockies MP Bob Zimmer; Manitoba MP Ted Falk; Albertan MPs Tom Kmiec, Damien Kurek, Jeremy Patzer, and David Yurdiga, Conservative MP for Fort McMurray-Cold Lake.

Two Richmond, British Columbia Conservative members of Parliament voted against the bill to restrict conversion therapy, MPs Alice Wong and Kenny Chiu.

Former Tory leader Andrew Scheer was not present for the vote, and neither was Grande Prairie-Mackenzie MP Chris Warkentin. Independent and former Conservative MP leadership hopeful Derek Sloan also voted to defeat Bill C-6.

On Twitter, Canadian singer songwriter k.d. Lang responded, “How terribly sad for them. Ignorance is not an easy thing to live with.”

The vote on the third reading of Bill C-6 in Parliament passed 263-63 in favour.

Meanwhile, social media giant TikTok announced in a statement following passage of the bill — despite the virulent, intolerant and often hateful commentary from a majority of Conservative Party MPs — that the service would be removing all content that harms the LGBTQ+ community, including conversion therapy videos.

Following passage of the bill banning conversion therapy in Canada, the bill languished in the Senate, where Conservative Party members of the chamber repeatedly threw roadblocks in the way of a timely passage of Bill C-6 —  in order that it might become law — instead,  Bill C-6 died on the Order paper, expunged from history. Erin O’Toole has said his government would not re-introduce Bill C-6, or move to outlaw conversion therapy in Canada, stating, “If the provinces or municipalities wish to introduce similar legislation to that which was passed in the spring, my government would not oppose such an initiative. As you know, I voted in favour of Bill C-6 — a majority of my Conservative caucus colleagues did not accept Bill C-6.”

Decision 2021 | Day 30 | The State of the Race | Progressivism Reigns

Decision Canada 2021, Politics, , , ,

With only one week to go, Canadians — who just 11 days ago seemed almost completely unaware there was a federal election going on —  have come out of their slumber, and in vast numbers have set about to change the complexion of the current election.

Here’s what the polls were looking like on September 2nd …

On Thursday, September 2nd, Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives seemed to have the election in the bag, their policy-driven campaign a wild success, while at the same time Jagmeet Singh’s federal NDP campaign had caught fire, and catapulted the usual also-ran social democrats into second place, and ready to assume the mantle of Opposition party in the next session of Parliament.

So, what happened in 11 days to turn the Liberal campaign around?

1. Voters took a closer look at a Conservative Party platform that would annul a national child care programme signed onto by eight provinces and territories; nullify a Canada Child Care benefit programme that has provided much needed aid to young families, while cutting child poverty in Canada by 40% since 2015; rescind the ban on tanker traffic along British Columbia’s pristine coast; and reverse the current ban on assault weapons that have murdered so many of our fellow citizens; among dozens of other provocations;

2. Canadians took a closer look at the fiasco that is pandemic policy in the four provinces where the Conservative party is in power, and what that might mean for Tory pandemic policy federally. The provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan —  both of which refuse to consider a vaccine card to help keep their citizens safe —  have the highest per capita COVID-19 infection rates in Canada, and a citizen vaccination rate lower than anywhere else in the country, where the Premiers of these provinces say, “Everything is back to normal. We had lockdowns, quarantined our citizens, did contract tracing, and spent far too much taxpayer money on fighting a war against an invisible foe.” Recently resigned Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and Ontario Premier in hiding, Doug Ford, have done little better in protecting their citizens and fighting the scourge that is COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/EDenhoff/status/1436810714677604352?s=20

Canadian voters aren’t stupid: they know what an Erin O’Toole government would mean for the health of their families.

3. If Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have risen 5.8 points in the polls in the past 11 days, and Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives have lost 8.7 points in Canada-wide polling, the party that has experienced the steepest decline in support is Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, who in falling from a September 2nd high of 28.4% to a mere 17.1% standing today — for an incredible (if not unexpected) drop of 11.3 percentage points — simply have to be reeling.

Although, the NDP will pick up three seats if the Mainstreet Research / iPolitics poll above is correct.

Election Day 2021 is but one short week away from today.

By late in the evening of Monday, September 20th, Canadians will know whether we’ve elected an Erin O’Toole government — certainly not out of the realm of possibility, given the volatility of the current election cycle — or returned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Ottawa, for what will likely be his final term in office, allowing him to complete his work on creating a national child care programme, and seeing us through this pandemic that has so disrupted the lives of all Canadians.