Category Archives: BC Politics

#BCPoli | Ridings in Contention in the Interior, the North & the Kootenays

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With the 2024 British Columbia election now underway, several key ridings in the Interior of the province, including in the Okanagan, the Kootenays, and northern British Columbia look to play pivotal roles in determining the overall outcome.

These regions are historically less urbanized, with a mix of rural and resource-based economies, making them more politically diverse. The B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP), the resurgent B.C. Conservative Party, and a handful of high-profile Independents, including former B.C. United MLAs, are all vying for influence.

The B.C. Conservative Party, under leader John Rustad, is expected to make significant gains, particularly in the more conservative and rural areas of the province.

The party has capitalized on growing discontent with both the B.C. NDP government and the now virtually defunct B.C. United.

With Rustad steering the party towards a platform that resonates with socially conservative and populist voters, the B.C. Conservatives could emerge as the dominant opposition in the northern and Interior ridings.

In regions like the Okanagan and the Kootenays, where small-c conservative values have a strong foothold, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to gain traction.

In ridings such as Peace River North and Peace River South, long-time former B.C. United MLAs Dan Davies and Mike Bernier, respectively, are now running as Independents.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River North candidates, click here.

These ridings, which have traditionally voted conservative, will see fierce competition between these Independents, and the B.C. Conservative candidates.

If the vote splits between Independent conservatives and the B.C. Conservatives, it could allow the B.C. NDP to secure an unexpected victory — if they were running a candidate in either riding, which as of this writing they most decidedly are not. The B.C. NDP must figure it’s a lost cause.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River South candidates, click here.

As we say above, former B.C. United MLAs running as Independents could significantly impact the political dynamics in their respective ridings.

These candidates carry local recognition and established track records, but the collapse of B.C. United has left a vacuum that both the B.C. Conservatives and NDP are seeking to fill. The presence of high-profile Independent candidates, such as Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North, and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, could lead to a fragmentation of the right-leaning vote.

Mike Bernier, for example, has deep roots in Peace River South, and his decision to run as an Independent is likely to retain a significant portion of his previous support. However, he faces competition from a growing B.C. Conservative presence in the area. Similarly, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North may siphon votes away from the B.C. Conservative candidate, potentially paving the way for a closer contest with the B.C. NDP.

Before we leave the North, let’s take a look at …

Bulkley Valley-Stikine. The Stikine has been in the NDP column since 2009 with Doug Donaldson. Prior to 2009, Bulkley Valley-Stikine had been held by Dennis McKay of the B.C. Liberals. It’s the smallest riding in the province by population, and the largest by geography. The NDP’s Nathan Cullen is the MLA for the riding, which he won handily in 2020, following a 15-year stint as the shadow Finance Critic for the federal New Democratic Party.  As was the case in 2020, Rod Taylor, the head of the Christian Heritage Party, is running again; generally, he receives about 10% of the vote. Although not announced as of this writing, word is that the B.C. Greens will run an Indigenous candidate who has been active in the anti-pipeline movement. Stir that all around, and  Bulkley Valley-Stikine could very well turn into a horse race. One to keep an eye on.

Skeena. Pair this riding with Bulkley Valley-Stikine and this could be a pick up for the NDP, now that Ellis Ross — who had held the riding for B.C. United — has jumped to the federal Conservatives, where he’ll run as a federal candidate in the Skeena riding. Sarah Zimmerman who has deep roots in Skeena, and currently sits as an elected Terrace City Councillor and was the former Executive Director of Communications for Coast Mountain College is considered to be a very strong candidate in the riding. Expect David Eby to spend time in both ridings, to secure two victories in the North.

In the Okanagan, where former B.C. United candidates Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre), Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland), and Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) are now running as Independents, the political landscape is equally complicated.

The Okanagan is traditionally conservative, but the vote-splitting between Independents and B.C. Conservative candidates could offer opportunities for the NDP, particularly in historically competitive ridings such as Vernon-Lumby, which the NDP won in 2020. Acton’s candidacy will face pressure from both the B.C. NDP and a surging B.C. Conservative base. If the vote splits, it could swing the riding back into NDP control, or allow the B.C. Conservatives to make gains.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Salmon Arm-Shuswap candidates, click here.

In Salmon Arm-Shuswap, Greg McCune’s Independent bid will face similar dynamics. This riding has a deeply conservative base, but with B.C. Conservatives gaining momentum, vote-splitting could alter the outcome.

The Kootenay Ridings: NDP vs. B.C. Conservatives

In the Kootenays, the B.C. NDP has traditionally done well, especially in ridings like Kootenay West and Kootenay-Rockies, where progressive and environmentally-focused voters dominate. However, the B.C. Conservatives are working to broaden their appeal in these areas by emphasizing opposition to government overreach, particularly on resource management and rural development issues.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Central candidates, click here.

The B.C. Greens have historically been a strong force in Nelson and surrounding areas, appealing to environmentally conscious voters who support sustainable resource management and climate action. In ridings like Kootenay-West (the old Nelson-Creston riding) the Greens are expected to remain a key player, with potential to siphon votes away from the B.C. NDP. However, it is unlikely that the B.C. Conservatives will gain significant traction here due to the progressive nature of the electorate.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Rockies candidates, click here.

In Kootenay-Rockies, Tom Shypitka’s decision to run as an Independent, having previously been a B.C. United MLA, will complicate the conservative vote. The B.C. Conservatives are likely to perform well in this region, but Shypitka’s local popularity could create a fragmented right-leaning vote, giving the NDP a chance to maintain or even expand their influence.

The Kamloops Ridings

Kamloops has historically been a battleground, with ridings like Kamloops-North Thompson and Kamloops-Centre frequently seeing close contests.

The B.C. Conservatives, emboldened by their recent growth, are aiming to make headway in these ridings.

To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-North Thompson candidates, click here.

In Kamloops-North Thompson, where rural concerns about resource industries and housing affordability dominate, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to perform well, potentially at the expense of the B.C. NDP.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-Centre candidates, click here.

Kamloops-Centre, with a more urban electorate the Conservatives could retain the seat with former B.C. United / B.C. Liberal candidate Peter Milobar holding down the fort for the Conservatives, unless voters disillusioned with both the remnants of B.C. United. and decide to cast their ballot for a reinvigorated B.C. New Democratic Party.

The 2024 B.C. election in the Interior, Okanagan, Kootenays, and the North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

The B.C. Conservatives are positioned to make significant gains, particularly in more rural, conservative-leaning ridings. However, the presence of high-profile Independents, especially former B.C. United MLAs, adds complexity to the race, creating the potential for vote-splitting and unexpected outcomes.

The B.C. Greens will remain strong in progressive enclaves, particularly around Nelson, while the B.C. NDP faces the challenge of defending its gains from 2020 in the face of a re-energized conservative movement.

As of today, we are 25 days away from October 19th Election Day.

2024 British Columbia Provincial Election | Regional Riding Analysis

Part 1 | Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention, and Subject to Change


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | Election 2024 | Riding Breakdown Analysis | Vancouver Island

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In the 2024 British Columbia provincial election there are 93 ridings, six more than in the 2020 B.C. election, thanks to the redistribution recommendation of the Independent Electoral Commission which was charged to make voting in British Columbia fairer and more representative of the population of the province.

In British Columbia, there are 25 ridings in the Interior (the Okanagan and the Kootenays), 16 ridings across Vancouver Island, and 52 ridings across Metro Vancouver, reaching out into the Fraser Valley, and extending to Chilliwack.

In total, there are approximately 30 ridings that will tell the tale on Election Night,  October 19th. The outcome in these ridings will determine whether incumbent Premier David Eby’s New Democratic Party will hold onto government, or will be replaced by John Rustad’s insurgent Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Today, VanRamblings will focus on the Vancouver Island ridings in contention.

For the past couple of provincial elections Vancouver Island has proved to be a New Democratic Party fortress, with the party winning every riding on the Island. Following the October 19th election, we could witness a return to the days when a handful of Socred  / B.C. Liberal candidates held sway in five or six Vancouver Island ridings.

VanRamblings will publish three additional riding analysis columns covering the Interior and the North, a good portion of Metro Vancouver (focusing on Vancouver / Burnaby / Richmond / Delta / New Westminster / Surrey), and a final riding by riding analysis column covering the Tri-Cities, the north side of the Fraser River, Langley, and into the Fraser Valley through to Chilliwack.

Today, VanRamblings is focused on the Vancouver Island ridings that could allow David Eby to hold government, or thrust John Rustad into the Premier’s chair.

Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention in Election 2024

(Click on the underlined text for more information on the candidates running in the riding)

  • Victoria-Beacon Hill . Held by former B.C. NDP leader / Finance Minister Carole James from 2005 to 2020, upon resigning for health reasons, popular Victoria City Councillor Grace Lore ran in her stead in the 2020 B.C. election and won. During her first term, Ms. Lore’s four-year-old son was diagnosed with a brain tumour, which saw his mother cut back on some of her political activities in the riding, also gaining her family much sympathy and support. Upon her son’s return to health, Grace Lore was appointed as the Minister of Children and Family Development, a job she has excelled at, gaining much recognition for competence in the post, as well as for her caring and compassion. Ms. Lore’s challengers in 2024: Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, this will be a tight three-person race, with the very real possibility that there could be as little as half a percentage point in the vote separating the winner from the two politicos who fail to secure victory on the evening of October 19th.

  • Ladysmith-Oceanside . Adam Walker was elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election. For reasons that have never been revealed, Mr. Walker was removed from the NDP caucus on September 18, 2023, and since that date has sat as an Independent. Mr. Walker is running for office in 2024 as an Independent, with the endorsement of the Green Party, and the on the ground support of the party’s supporters. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a relative unknown. There’s also a second Independent candidate, Lehann Wallace, who is seeking the seat. The outcome in the riding is unpredictable. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.

  • Courtenay-Comox . Both Courtenay-Comox and North Island are in the federal riding of North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn — whose claim to fame was being removed from the B.C. Liberal party leadership race in 2021 for being too far right — is the federal Conservative Party candidate. In 2017, Ronna-Rae Leonard — who is running for re-election in 2024 — won Courtenay-Comox by a hair’s breadth. For the previous two decades, the riding had been a B.C. Liberal stronghold. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest that Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding come October 19th. Not for no reason was John Rustad front and centre in the riding on the opening day, and again on Sunday for a big rally, of Election 2024.

  • North Island. As far as North Island is concerned, the riding oughta be another pick up for the B.C. Conservatives, their candidate physician Anna Kindy, who was an organizer with the Trucker Convoy, who brought hundreds of her future (anti-vaxx) constituents to the B.C. Legislature to protest Health Minister Adrian Dix, and Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry’s edicts on how to fight COVID. In a change election, the pundits’ smart money is on Dr. Kindy to put the riding in the win column for the B.C. Conservatives — who will fire Dr. Henry as a first order of business should they form government.

  • Saanich North and the Islands. B.C. Liberal from 1991 to 2013. A bare NDP victory in 2013, with B.C. Green Party candidate, Adam Olsen — who is not running again in 2024 — securing victory in 2017 and 2020. With former Islands Trustee Rob Botterell running with the Greens, lawyer David Busch with the B.C. Conservatives and Sarah Riddell, elected to Central Saanich City Council in 2022, the B.C. NDP candidate — a riding that has voted Conservative federally for decades — it’s anyone’s guess as to the outcome of this tight three way race come election night.

The 11 remaining Vancouver Island ridings oughta vote solidly NDP come election day. C’mon back tomorrow for more riding analysis, as we move to the Interior and the North, after which we’ll analyze Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | An Alternative Perspective on Election ’24 | The Hotel Pacifico

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Today on VanRamblings, a departure from our usual ramblings, and instead an interview with Premier David Eby, conducted by the folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast, the inimitable and skilled purveyors of all things British Columbia politics: former 2013 Christy Clark B.C. Liberal campaign manager, Mike McDonald; former Globe and Mail B.C. Legislative reporter, Kate Hammer; and Geoff Meggs, the former Chief of Staff to BC NDP Premier, John Horgan.

On their most recent edition of Hotel Pacifico, the co-hosts of British Columbia’s most informed political podcast hold Premier David Eby’s feet to the fire, for a good half hour, the remainder of the hour-long podcast dedicated to informed punditry on all of the issues that will impact on the 2024 B.C. provincial election.

Next week, the derring pundit trio introduce B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad to their listeners, and all of us folks with a passing interest in politics.


Hotel Pacifico podcast hosts / pundits extraordinaire: Mike McDonald, Kate Hammer and Geoff Meggs

Note should be made before we get to Hotel Pacifico’s David Eby interview that Mr. Macdonald, Ms. Hammer and Mr. Meggs will broadcast daily, Monday to Friday, for 18 consecutive weekdays beginning Monday, September 23rd (two days after the Writ is dropped) in the lead up to the October 19th election, on the machinations of the 28-day B.C. campaign for government, a must-watch, must-listen-to (the podcast available on YouTube, and your favourite Apple or other podcast app, as well as on Spotify and other media platforms) endeavour.


The Hotel Pacifico hosts’ podcast interview with B.C. New Democratic Party Premier, David Eby.

#BCPoli | BC United Leader | The Personal, Joyful Tragedy of Kevin Falcon

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Bliss, happiness, joy, a life fulfilled, family as all important, and a driving political force: BC United leader Kevin Falcon sitting on the porch of their home with wife Jessica and their two daughters

Kevin Falcon is one of the most driven, successful and accomplished tranformational figures to grace the British Columbia political landscape this century.

The former Deputy Premier of British Columbia, Kevin Falcon is generally regarded as one of our province’s most successful ever Finance Ministers — during his tenure in that portfolio, providing necessary services and economic growth to serve the interests of all British Columbians — an outstanding Minister of Health — yet another portfolio in which he far exceeded expectation, emerging as a groundbreaking defender of our health care system —  and a builder in the mould of former Socred Premier, W.A.C. Bennett, Kevin Falcon in his lengthy, storied tenure as British Columbia’s Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure — without Kevin Falcon, those of us living across Metro Vancouver would have no Canada Line today, with ridership levels of more than 170,000 commuters each day, were it not for the across the aisle, non-partisan, visionary leadership of Kevin Falcon.

The current leader of B.C. United — the official opposition in the British Columbia Legislature, to Premier David Eby’s British Columbia New Democratic Party — Kevin Falcon is a generational British Columbia political leader who has long served the best interests of the citizens of our province well, with dedication and distinction.


Jessica Elliott and Kevin Falcon were wed on Saturday, July 25, 2009, in a low-key, back yard ceremony

For all his success as a Minister of the Crown, Kevin Falcon — for almost a half century — was a confirmed bachelor, leading a lonely — if directed — life of service, unloved, unseen, unappreciated and little known — feeling deep within himself that he was, perhaps, undeserving of love. Upon meeting Jessica Elliott, a substitute teacher working on her Master’s degree, he fell head over heels in love, and much to his utter surprise and delight,  the object of his deep affection and love, fell just as deeply in love with him as he was with her, as remains the case to this very day.

Life changed forever — Mr. Falcon would contend, if you were to ask him, for the much much better — upon his marriage to Ms. Elliott, now Ms. Falcon, the personal, joyful “tragedy” of Mr. Falcon’s marriage to Ms. Elliott compounded only months later by the birth of his daughter, Josephine, now 14 years of age, and in 2012 with the birth of his second child, daughter Rose, all of 11 years young.

With the birth of newborn Rose, Kevin Falcon — now and forever, a changed man, a family man whose primary priority was now the happiness and welfare of his wife Jessica, and their beloved young daughters — told the members of his B.C. Liberal caucus that he would not run for re-election in his long-held Surrey-Cloverdale riding, in the then upcoming 2013 British Columbia provincial general election.

As a dedicated family man — his life revolving almost totally around his wife, and two daughters —  Kevin Falcon did not forego contribution, as he took on a number of volunteer roles with non-profit organizations, including the Canuck Place Foundation, Lions Gate Hospital Foundation and the Streetohome Foundation.

From that date in 2013 through until February 5, 2022, upon crossing the 50% threshold required to win the leadership of the B.C. Liberal party — which he did on the fifth ballot —  Kevin Falcon had remained out of politics, when in 2013, he joined Vancouver-based Anthem Capital as their Executive Vice President.

Following Mr. Falcon’s win, Andrew Wilkinson — who had led the B.C. Liberals to ignominous defeat in the 2020 British Columbia election, his campaign for office dogged by allegations of lack of leadership, and anti-LGBTQ / anti-vax / anti-woman / eugenics sentiment of then Chilliwack-Kent B.C. Liberal candidate Laurie Throness — formally resigned as an MLA to free up his Vancouver-Quilchena seat  for Mr. Falcon. A by-election for the riding was called on April 2, 2022. Mr. Falcon won the by-election, and was elected riding MLA, taking his seat in the Legislature.

Perhaps the most transformative change western culture has experienced in the past two decades has arisen as a consequence of the critically important, the vital, the fundamental, the pivotal and the joyous, indispensable role men have now come to play as involved, utterly essential fathers in the lives of their children.


Clockwise from the top left: Scott Andrews, senior consultant at Earnscliffe Strategies; Derrick O’Keefe, journalist with Richochet Media; Gavin Dew, BC Conservative candidate for Kelowna-Mission, with his lovely wife, Erin, and their beautiful daughter and young son;  and Stephen von Zychowski, President of the Vancouver District & Labour Council, with daughter, Coraline (who he loves with all his heart).

The Kevin Falcon of 2024 is very much not the Kevin Falcon of 2001 thru 2013.

The Kevin Falcon of today is more forward and ‘future thinking’ than the Kevin Falcon of old — the pre-having-a-family Kevin Falcon — the Kevin Falcon we thought we all knew, but apparently did not, and the Kevin Falcon the B.C. Liberal party elected as the redemptive leader of the aimless, perhaps too regressive, ‘out of touch with the times’ B.C. Liberal party of 2022, the centre-right B.C. political party that had been so unceremoniously defeated in the 2020 B.C. election.


BC United leader Kevin Falcon, walking his beloved, cherished daughters, Rose & Josephine, to school

Today’s VanRamblings constitutes the first of a two-part series on the B.C. United leader, the second part of the series expressing why Kevin Falcon and B.C. United find themselves in the doldrums politically, seemingly on the verge of political oblivion come the evening of Saturday, October 19th, why the newly progressive, forward-and-future-thinking, newly-minted B.C. United leader believed it was of critical importance to excise a backward thinking, neanderthal member of the B.C. Liberal caucus — which is to say, current B.C. Conservative party leader, John Rustad, who Mr. Falcon could just not stomach — and the impact that decision has had on Mr. Falcon’s personal and political fortunes, and on the fortunes of the British Columbia political party he heads …  but for how much longer?