Category Archives: BC Election 2024

#BCPoli | B.C. Conservative Leader Not the Aw Shucks Guy He Bills Himself As

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John Rustad, the ‘climate change denying’ (transphobic) leader of the upstart B.C. Conservative party — destined to become, either, British Columbia’s next Premier, or at the very least form the official Opposition in the next session of B.C.’s Legislature — portrays himself as an ‘aw shucks’ kind of guy, a ‘man of the people’ who hails from the hinterland, someone who has your best interests at heart, not to mention, a democrat of the first order, and the furthest thing you could possibly imagine from a died-in-the-wool autocrat, a detestable top down kind of fella.

Don’t you believe his ‘aw shucks’ persona for a second.

John Rustad — long a Cabinet Minister in Gordon Campbell’s and Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberal Party — is very much the autocratic / ‘my way or the highway’ kind of leader of the once moribund, but now seemingly thriving, BC Conservative party.

If Alec Lazenby’s PostMedia article published in the Vancouver Sun yesterday is to be believed — and who is going to question Mr. Lazenby’s well-searched, and well-sourced article? — as the headline of the article reads, B.C. Conservative constituency executive resigns as controversy swirls over party’s nomination process …

“In its haste to nominate 93 candidates in time for October’s provincial election, the B.C. Conservative party has angered some rank-and-file members by bypassing grassroots decision-making.

Last week, the president of the party’s Vernon-Lumby association — in charge of raising money and selecting a candidate for the riding — resigned after rumours that party leader John Rustad planned to parachute former federal Conservative hopeful Kevin Kraft into the riding.”

Mr. Lazenby’s article goes on to state …

“Last week, it was revealed the party had held discussions with former B.C. Liberal leadership contestant Gavin Dew about running in Vernon-Lumby, before ultimately deciding to place him in Kelowna-Mission after ousting Alexandra Wright as that riding’s candidate.”

In point of fact, Gavin Dew refused John Rustad’s entreaty to run in the Vernon-Lumby riding, as he makes his home — with his wife, former Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Erin Shum, and their two young children — in the south Okanagan city of Kelowna.

The next shoe to drop?

Gavin Dew, a one-time hopeful leader of the BC Liberal party was offered the BC Conservative seat of Kelowna-Mission, following the unceremonious ouster of longtime, loyal conservative Kelowna activist Alexandra Wright — up until Mr. Dew’s latter day ascension as a newly-minted BC Conservative candidate — the once-upon-a-time, but no more, elected by the constituency association to become their local BC Conservative candidate for Kelowna-Mission in the coming provincial election.

Is unhappiness with how John Rustad runs the BC Conservative party limited only to the south Okanagan Vernon-Lumby and Kelowna-Mission constituencies?

Nope. According to Mr. Lazenby …

“On June 7, Kari Simpson, the vice-president of the party’s Langley-Abbotsford association, asked the B.C. Supreme Court to cancel a nomination meeting scheduled for the next day.

Simpson’s complaint centred on party president Aisha Estey threatening to remove the local association’s board members if they didn’t delay the meeting by a week.

There is such a furore within the BC Conservative party, and its membership, that a cadre of party members have called on John Rustad to resign as party leader.

More recently, Mr. Lazenby’s article reads, “the party has had to respond to a group calling itself a “grassroots organization of B.C. Conservative supporters,” which put up a website calling for the firing of John Rustad over his appointment of candidates who were members of other parties, such as recent B.C. United defector Teresa Wat in Richmond-Bridgeport and former NDP MLA Gwen O’Mahoney in Nanaimo-Lantzville.”

Rob Shaw, in an article published in Business in Vancouver on Monday, writes …

“There’s a movement afoot within the BC Conservative party to fire leader John Rustad.

Some party members have been receiving a letter that accuses Rustad of “diluting” the Conservative brand by accepting floor-crossing BC United candidates, as well as candidates previously associated with the BC NDP.

Disgruntled BC Conservative party members write on their hastily published Fire John Rustad website … “We are writing to you today to raise the alarm about John Rustad’s recent welcoming of pro-Beijing and former BC Liberal MLA, Teresa Wat, into the BC Conservative Party with no regards for the voices of grassroots members,” it reads.

“We are a grassroots organization of BC Conservative supporters who have been around long before John Rustad’s appointment as leader, and will be around long after he’s gone.

“While we continue to support the party and look forward to forming government, we must put a stop to John’s diluting of our party.”

On March 26th of this year, VanRamblings wrote about the “bozo eruptions” that would most assuredly hinder the BC Conservative party from gaining government post the October 19th British Columbia provincial election.

Since that date, the BC Conservative party has jettisoned several nominated candidates over social media posts, including Esquimalt-Colwood hopefuls Jan Webb and Dr. Stephen Malthouse of Ladysmith-Oceanside, both who falsely claimed COVID-19 vaccines make you shed spike proteins and could make you magnetic.

Other BC Conservative candidates have left quietly, such as UFC fighter Jason Day of Columbia River-Revelstoke who made comments in May on social media that accused the World Health Organization of wanting to “achieve world government” by removing “from the minds of men, their individualism, loyalty to family traditions, national patriotism and religious dogmas.”

Constituency nominated BC Conservative Kyle Schell was recently replaced by John Rustad with Tony Luck in the riding of Fraser-Nicola, where Mr. Luck will go up against popular, longtime BC United MLA, Jackie Tegart.

The question arises: Are the wheels coming off the BC Conservative campaign bus, even before the provincial election campaign begins in earnest following the dropping of the Writ on Saturday, September 21st?

In an article published in the Burnaby Now, Global BC Legislative reporter Keith Baldrey writes …

The B.C. Conservatives, a moribund party for decades, is leading all parties with 81 people named as candidates, in the 93 ridings that will be up for grabs this October.

The NDP is not far behind, with 74 candidates nominated or named so far and another 13 people in the process of becoming one.

As for both the B.C. United and B.C. Green parties, given that they’re having a difficult time finding candidates to fill the 93 open slots, both parties will likely install party or caucus staffers as candidates to fill out their roster, if they need to.

Employing his autocratic style, rather than adhere to democratic engagement and allow ridings to nominate the local candidates of their choosing, instead Mr. Rustad has chosen to appoint his “preferred” BC Conservative candidates, thereby squelching community and local riding association input into who these local riding association members believe will best represent their interests in Victoria.

Sad that. Not to mention, anti-democratic and bullying.

But that’s the BC Conservative party heading into 2024’s B.C. provincial election.

#BCPoli | Polls, Polls and More Useless Damn Polls

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VanRamblings’ believes that Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on the positioning of the four main political parties in our province to be so much malarkey.

Unlike the Abacus poll we quoted yesterday that gives David Eby’s BC NDP a solid five-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservatives — which ran only 19 provincial candidates in the 2020 British Columbia election, with 35,902 votes cast across the province for candidates running with the party, securing a paltry 1.91% of the popular vote — yesterday’s Mainstreet poll gives the BC Conservatives a 3-point lead in the popular vote, well within the poll’s multi-point margin of error.

On Tuesday, VanRamblings suggested that the Mainstreet poll was little more than a push poll, designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast their ballot. Further, Mr. Maggi’s Mainstreet Research polling has consistently over the years undercounted support for John Horgan or David Eby’s BC NDP provincially, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, federally.

Further, the Abacus poll, unlike the Mainstreet poll, results were broken down by region, giving David Eby’s BC NDP an insurmountable nine-point lead across Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, well outside of the 3.2% margin of error …

Out of a potential British Columbia voting population of more than four million adults who are eligible to cast a ballot at advance polls this early October, or on Election Day, October 19th, Mainstreet’s survey interviewed only 962 respondents, employing wildly unreliable automated telephone interviews as Mainstreet’s sole source of information, without any reference whatsoever to voter intention.

Further, Mainstreet’s published survey results fail to break down respondent response by the area of the province where respondents live, be it in the Metro Vancouver region, on Vancouver Island, the Okanagan, the Interior or the North.

Now, as it happens, the BC Conservatives have in their employ Canada’s best Conservative pollster, Dmitri Pantazopoulos — about whom we will write another day. Only the BC Conservative election team, and leader John Rustad — and certainly not everyday British Columbians — will see the results of Mr. Pantazopoulous’ intricate and wildly reliable daily polling results, intensive nightly surveys of those who live in each of British Columbians’ the ridings Mr. Pantazopoulos has deemed — and  targeted — as winnable for John Rustad’s BC Conservatives, the 50+ ridings that would give Mr. Rustad the winning Legislative majority, and government over the next four years.


Dimitri Pantazopoulos (above) will play a key role in determining the outcome of the 2024 BC election

The role of a prescient Mr. Pantazopoulous in determining the outcome of 2024 British Columbia election is a column VanRamblings will save for another day.

#BCPoli | Whither Now BC United Chief Kevin Falcon?

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Kevin Falcon currently sits in the British Columbia Legislature as BC United party Leader of the Loyal Opposition, to Premier David Eby’s BC NDP government.

As we wrote yesterday, Kevin Falcon’s BC United campaign for re-election is currently in the doldrums, with the very real prospect — if polls are to be believed — that BC United might very well be wiped off the political map this fall. In fact, VanRamblings has been told that Mr. Falcon is currently running (a distant) second to the BC Conservative’s Dallas Brodie in his home riding of Vancouver Quilchena.

This past Thursday, August 15th, federal Conservative / political observer / past Managing Editor at the Vancouver Sun / 2014 Vancouver NPA candidate for Mayor / former publisher-editor of Business in Vancouver, Kirk LaPointe, wrote a withering column titled,  Time for Kevin Falcon to Bid Adieu and Become B.C.’s Biden.

“Kevin Falcon is banking on having his Gordon Wilson moment — to ignite BC United as Wilson’s Leaders’ Debate performance did for the 1991 BC Liberals, rising above the onstage bickering of the NDP’s Mike Harcourt and the Social Credit’s Rita Johnson to deliver the famous line: ‘This reminds me of a couple of kids in a sandbox. I’m not interested in what happened 10 years ago; I’m interested in what happens tomorrow.’ Falcon should worry less about an upcoming debate and more about standing in the way of change.

Falcon’s party’s understandable bitterness about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ought to be set aside if the BC United team is serious about ending the NDP reign. If it wants to oust government, it ought to lend its experienced election machinery to the party in the best position to properly optimize it in the approaching campaign.

But it depends on the guy at the top, the guy who must regret dispatching Rustad from BC United on his birthday two years ago — to do what in his heart he must know by now is best for B.C.

If he is interested in change, Kevin Falcon needs a Biden moment.”

In point of fact, not only have several sitting members of BC United deserted the party (Lorne Doerkson, Elenore Sturko, Teresa Wat), the staff responsible for running BC United’s election campaign have also been leaving the party in droves.

Again, as we wrote yesterday, word from BC Conservative sources is that Kevin Falcon will, indeed, experience his Joe Biden moment, and resign as leader of BC United before month’s end, caving into pressure from all quarters, not to mention the pragmatism of acknowledging polling over the months that has BC United being obliterated at the polls this upcoming October.

As we wrote yesterday, we don’t believe this “speculation” / wishful thinking.

Why not?


BC United caucus members, l-r: Trevor Halford, Todd Stone, Shirley Bond, Mike Bernier, Coralee Oakes

For a start, the remaining MLAs in the BC United caucus running for re-election under the party’s banner — Todd Stone and Peter Milobar in Kamloops, Shirley Bond in Prince George, Coralee Oakes in Prince George Cariboo-North, Mike Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, Jackie Tegart in Fraser-Nicola, Ian Paton in Delta South, and Trevor Halford in Surrey-White Rock — would be left high and dry if BC United were to fold their tent (given that the BC Conservatives have already nominated candidates in each of those ridings), a Kevin Falcon decision to step down as leader would serve to create chaos in the lives of the loyal BC United caucus members who are running for re-election, effectively snuffing out their chance at another term in the BC Legislature, not to mention their political careers and aspirations.

In addition, let us not forget the remaining 87 members of the BC United team running for election under the BC United banner in ridings across our province.

BC United enters the campaign as the second most well-funded campaign, just behind the BC NDP, and miles ahead of the BC Conservatives. Anything can happen during the course of the upcoming 28-day British Columbia election campaign. Kevin Falcon and BC United could very well experience a Lazurus or Phoenix-like re-birth, arising from the dead to fight another day for their principles, as duly elected members in good standing, in the British Columbia Legislature.

VanRamblings will have more to say about Kevin Falcon — of a kindly and generous nature — in the days to come. To be quite honest, we are flummoxed that Kevin Falcon, once a celebrated member of Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberal caucus, a builder of the first order, a relatively non-partisan happy warrior in Campbell’s government, who was always prepared to work across the aisle, has fallen on such hard times politically. We’ll write about that grievous circumstance another day.


Bill Tieleman, a VanRamblings neighbour and friend, great chef and oenophile, and all around good guy

Note: VanRamblings’ friend, Bill Tieleman, an all around good guy, one of the most authentic and humane men, not to mention a well-informed and principled politico, and just darn good human being, which is to say, one of the best humans of our acquaintance, now or ever — informs us that in point of fact, the Writ will be dropped on September 21st, not September 14th, as we wrote earlier (we thought there’d be a 35-day election period … apparently not … woe is us … alas).

#BCPOLI | Two Months Out from British Columbia’s 43rd Provincial Election

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Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.

According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s novice BC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.

VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.

Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.

Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.

According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.

Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.

VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.


John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.

Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North —  there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently the wildly popular BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the Stikine, and current Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship and Minister Responsible for Fisheries in David Eby’s BC NDP government hardly constitutes a winning seat up north for the BC Conservative Party, so John Rustad would likely be denied a sweep of the ridings outside of Metro Vancouver.

All is not lost for John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, though, which VanRamblings will write about later in the week.


Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.

Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.

We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.


Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit   September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s  43rd provincial election.

As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.