Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.
According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s noviceBC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.
VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.
Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.
Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.
According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.
Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.
VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.
John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.
Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North — there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently the wildly popular BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the Stikine, and current Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship and Minister Responsible for Fisheries in David Eby’s BC NDP government hardly constitutes a winning seat up north for the BC Conservative Party, so John Rustad would likely be denied a sweep of the ridings outside of Metro Vancouver.
All is not lost for John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, though, which VanRamblings will write about later in the week.
Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.
Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.
We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.
Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s 43rd provincial election.
As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.
L-r, Premier David Eby; Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC
One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.
The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.
Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.
Unless …
William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier
The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.
Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.
Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.
As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.
We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Partyincumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.
The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.
Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.
Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …
See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …
Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.
According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.
Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.
Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.
But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …
Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservativesdo not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.
As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.
Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.
No longer.
Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?
Hmmm.
We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.
In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.
Andrea Reimer and Christine Boyle. Candidates for the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination.
Three weeks from today, the remaining 300 members of the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP riding association will cast their ballots to choose who they wish to represent them in the upcoming October 19th provincial election.
Background as to membership numbers: when, in late 2022, Anjali Appadurai announced her intention to run for the leadership of the provincial NDP, 200 citizens who lived in the Vancouver-Fairview (now called Vancouver-Little Mountain) NDP riding signed up to support her candidacy — but did not renew their membership this past, or this, year, leaving 300 remaining voting members in the riding to cast a ballot in the current race to determine the provincial Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP candidate. In 2021, Ms. Appadurai had run as the federal NDP candidate in the riding of Vancouver-Granville, which shares borders with Vancouver-Fairview, thus was well-positioned to re-sign members during her provincial leadership bid.
Vancouver-Fairview MLA George Heyman will not seek re-election in the October provincial election.
In the lead-up to former three-term Vancouver City Councillor Andrea Reimer announcing her Vancouver-Little Mountain New Democratic Party nomination bid, Ms. Reimer and her team were able to sign up a handful of NDP members in the riding to support her candidacy for the nomination, following George Heyman’s March 4th announcement that he would not seek a further term in the Legislature.
George Heyman endorsed Andrea Reimer at his retirement announcement.
Much to the surprise of political observers, current two-term OneCity Vancouver Councillor Christine Boyle announced her candidacy for the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination, within an hour of Ms. Reimer’s announcement.
Vancouver-Little Mountain membership was locked in early March, just prior to Andrea Reimer and Christine Boyle announcing their respective nomination bids.
After which, the NDP nomination race in Vancouver-Little Mountain was engaged.
Some big news! I am stepping up for my community and asking for your support to become Vancouver-Little Mountain’s next MLA.
In the 10 days since their respective announcements, both Andrea Reimer and Christine Boyle have been active on the campaign trail …
🙏 Thank you to the passionate volunteers out door knocking with me day after day. Your commitment to our community always inspires me — and kept me smiling all week. Let’s keep working together to build a strong future for everyone in Vancouver-Little Mountain! #BCNDPFamilypic.twitter.com/lGFgHAxZOo
— Andrea Reimer (she/her) (@andreareimer) March 10, 2024
Christine Boyle also tweeted out her work with volunteers on the campaign trail.
Great to be out knocking doors and talking to @bcndp members in #VancouverLittleMountain! So many good conversations about housing, healthcare, affordability and climate action.
So, where are we three weeks out from April 4th’s NDP nomination meeting?
Andrea Reimer has run a 24-hour-a-day, high energy, community-oriented and tightly focused campaign to gain the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination.
Christine Boyle has also been out on the campaign trail, but her commitment to gaining the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination has been hamstrung by her full-time job as OneCity Vancouver’s only member on Vancouver City Council.
Should Andrea Reimer secure the Vancouver-Little Mountain nomination, she is a lock to be appointed as British Columbia’s next Environment Minister this upcoming November, when a newly-elected Premier David Eby announces his new Cabinet. Both are can-do, no nonsense politicos, both are team players, and neither politician suffers fools gladly. David Eby prefers to appoint Cabinet Ministers in whom he sees a bit of himself — and that is certainly the case with Ms. Reimer.
Christine Boyle, should she secure the Vancouver-Little Mountain nomination will not be destined for Cabinet, but will most certainly secure a position as a Parliamentary Secretary. To some extent, Ms. Boyle — an Anjali Appadurai acolyte — while friendly with the Premier must be seen as something of a Trojan horse, who will in all likelihood emerge as a thorn in the side of the Premier, as she speaks out against fracking and the lack of progress on the development of the Little Mountain site between 33rd and 37th avenues along Main Street.
Note. There is much NDP support for the policy positions enunciated by Ms. Boyle.
Christine Boyle holding Vancouver School Board trustee Jennifer Reddy’s child in her arms
Of all the politicians across British Columbia, Christine Boyle has the most winning smile, and for many she is the most authentic political figure in Metro Vancouver.
While we support Andrea Reimer’s candidacy, we believe the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination is Christine Boyle’s to lose.
Not a day goes by when we don’t run across someone, or receive a call from an associate who sets about to extol Ms. Boyle’s many virtues — this recognition coming from persons from across the political spectrum. If you’re an old fogey like many of VanRamblings’ associates, you can’t help but look at Ms. Boyle and think, “If she were my daughter, I would be so proud of her.”
[A photo of Christine Boyle accompanies the word charming in the dictionary]
Clearly, Ms. Boyle has much support among younger, more activist NDP members.
Christine Boyle’s campaign for the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination has been less high profile than that of Andrea Reimer. But does it really matter?
All Christine Boyle needs to do is secure the support of one hundred and fifty-five Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP members to win the nomination.
We imagine that Ms. Boyle has found herself on the doorstep of each riding association member, and been invited inside for a cup of tea, and a warm chat, whereupon Christine Boyle without any effort on her part at all, has charmed the socks off the riding members in whose homes she finds herself, who will invariably be impressed at her deep knowledge of the issues, her presentation of self as an advocate for the change we all want to see, and perhaps the most authentic political figure Vancouver-Little Mountain riding members will have ever encountered.
The only potential fly in the ointment of Christine Boyle securing the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination arises as a consequence of the near million dollar expense to the citizens of Vancouver should she secure the nomination, and go on to attempt to win a seat in the government of Premier David Eby.
Vancouver City Councillor Christine Boyle upon securing a second term of office on Saturday, October 15, 2022 to City Hall, committed to representing those who elected her to office for the full four years of the mandate she had been given.
Given the cut and thrust of politics, one is left to wonder — should Christine Boyle secure the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination — how she would fare in the upcoming provincial general election, when confronted by her B.C. United, B.C. Conservative and Green party opponents, who would surely call her out on her failure to complete her elected term of office, and the consequent million dollar by-election expense that would ensue, in service of her ambition they might well say.
Andrea Reimer. Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP candidate? B.C.’s next Environment Minister?
Perhaps Andrea Reimer’s high profile campaign to secure the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP nomination, her many, many endorsements and her active participation in the community — and, let’s face it, her overall competence — will carry the day, and come the evening of Thursday, April 4th, Andrea Reimer will emerge as the chosen candidate, the Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP candidate who will go on to victory on E-Day, Saturday, October 19th — where soon after, Andrea Reimer will become British Columbia’s next, much admired Environment Minister.
