Tag Archives: british columbia

#BCPoli | Ridings in Contention in the Interior, the North & the Kootenays

With the 2024 British Columbia election now underway, several key ridings in the Interior of the province, including in the Okanagan, the Kootenays, and northern British Columbia look to play pivotal roles in determining the overall outcome.

These regions are historically less urbanized, with a mix of rural and resource-based economies, making them more politically diverse. The B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP), the resurgent B.C. Conservative Party, and a handful of high-profile Independents, including former B.C. United MLAs, are all vying for influence.

The B.C. Conservative Party, under leader John Rustad, is expected to make significant gains, particularly in the more conservative and rural areas of the province.

The party has capitalized on growing discontent with both the B.C. NDP government and the now virtually defunct B.C. United.

With Rustad steering the party towards a platform that resonates with socially conservative and populist voters, the B.C. Conservatives could emerge as the dominant opposition in the northern and Interior ridings.

In regions like the Okanagan and the Kootenays, where small-c conservative values have a strong foothold, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to gain traction.

In ridings such as Peace River North and Peace River South, long-time former B.C. United MLAs Dan Davies and Mike Bernier, respectively, are now running as Independents.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River North candidates, click here.

These ridings, which have traditionally voted conservative, will see fierce competition between these Independents, and the B.C. Conservative candidates.

If the vote splits between Independent conservatives and the B.C. Conservatives, it could allow the B.C. NDP to secure an unexpected victory — if they were running a candidate in either riding, which as of this writing they most decidedly are not. The B.C. NDP must figure it’s a lost cause.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River South candidates, click here.

As we say above, former B.C. United MLAs running as Independents could significantly impact the political dynamics in their respective ridings.

These candidates carry local recognition and established track records, but the collapse of B.C. United has left a vacuum that both the B.C. Conservatives and NDP are seeking to fill. The presence of high-profile Independent candidates, such as Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North, and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, could lead to a fragmentation of the right-leaning vote.

Mike Bernier, for example, has deep roots in Peace River South, and his decision to run as an Independent is likely to retain a significant portion of his previous support. However, he faces competition from a growing B.C. Conservative presence in the area. Similarly, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North may siphon votes away from the B.C. Conservative candidate, potentially paving the way for a closer contest with the B.C. NDP.

Before we leave the North, let’s take a look at …

Bulkley Valley-Stikine. The Stikine has been in the NDP column since 2009 with Doug Donaldson. Prior to 2009, Bulkley Valley-Stikine had been held by Dennis McKay of the B.C. Liberals. It’s the smallest riding in the province by population, and the largest by geography. The NDP’s Nathan Cullen is the MLA for the riding, which he won handily in 2020, following a 15-year stint as the shadow Finance Critic for the federal New Democratic Party.  As was the case in 2020, Rod Taylor, the head of the Christian Heritage Party, is running again; generally, he receives about 10% of the vote. Although not announced as of this writing, word is that the B.C. Greens will run an Indigenous candidate who has been active in the anti-pipeline movement. Stir that all around, and  Bulkley Valley-Stikine could very well turn into a horse race. One to keep an eye on.

Skeena. Pair this riding with Bulkley Valley-Stikine and this could be a pick up for the NDP, now that Ellis Ross — who had held the riding for B.C. United — has jumped to the federal Conservatives, where he’ll run as a federal candidate in the Skeena riding. Sarah Zimmerman who has deep roots in Skeena, and currently sits as an elected Terrace City Councillor and was the former Executive Director of Communications for Coast Mountain College is considered to be a very strong candidate in the riding. Expect David Eby to spend time in both ridings, to secure two victories in the North.

In the Okanagan, where former B.C. United candidates Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre), Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland), and Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) are now running as Independents, the political landscape is equally complicated.

The Okanagan is traditionally conservative, but the vote-splitting between Independents and B.C. Conservative candidates could offer opportunities for the NDP, particularly in historically competitive ridings such as Vernon-Lumby, which the NDP won in 2020. Acton’s candidacy will face pressure from both the B.C. NDP and a surging B.C. Conservative base. If the vote splits, it could swing the riding back into NDP control, or allow the B.C. Conservatives to make gains.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Salmon Arm-Shuswap candidates, click here.

In Salmon Arm-Shuswap, Greg McCune’s Independent bid will face similar dynamics. This riding has a deeply conservative base, but with B.C. Conservatives gaining momentum, vote-splitting could alter the outcome.

The Kootenay Ridings: NDP vs. B.C. Conservatives

In the Kootenays, the B.C. NDP has traditionally done well, especially in ridings like Kootenay West and Kootenay-Rockies, where progressive and environmentally-focused voters dominate. However, the B.C. Conservatives are working to broaden their appeal in these areas by emphasizing opposition to government overreach, particularly on resource management and rural development issues.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Central candidates, click here.

The B.C. Greens have historically been a strong force in Nelson and surrounding areas, appealing to environmentally conscious voters who support sustainable resource management and climate action. In ridings like Kootenay-West (the old Nelson-Creston riding) the Greens are expected to remain a key player, with potential to siphon votes away from the B.C. NDP. However, it is unlikely that the B.C. Conservatives will gain significant traction here due to the progressive nature of the electorate.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Rockies candidates, click here.

In Kootenay-Rockies, Tom Shypitka’s decision to run as an Independent, having previously been a B.C. United MLA, will complicate the conservative vote. The B.C. Conservatives are likely to perform well in this region, but Shypitka’s local popularity could create a fragmented right-leaning vote, giving the NDP a chance to maintain or even expand their influence.

The Kamloops Ridings

Kamloops has historically been a battleground, with ridings like Kamloops-North Thompson and Kamloops-Centre frequently seeing close contests.

The B.C. Conservatives, emboldened by their recent growth, are aiming to make headway in these ridings.

To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-North Thompson candidates, click here.

In Kamloops-North Thompson, where rural concerns about resource industries and housing affordability dominate, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to perform well, potentially at the expense of the B.C. NDP.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-Centre candidates, click here.

Kamloops-Centre, with a more urban electorate the Conservatives could retain the seat with former B.C. United / B.C. Liberal candidate Peter Milobar holding down the fort for the Conservatives, unless voters disillusioned with both the remnants of B.C. United. and decide to cast their ballot for a reinvigorated B.C. New Democratic Party.

The 2024 B.C. election in the Interior, Okanagan, Kootenays, and the North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

The B.C. Conservatives are positioned to make significant gains, particularly in more rural, conservative-leaning ridings. However, the presence of high-profile Independents, especially former B.C. United MLAs, adds complexity to the race, creating the potential for vote-splitting and unexpected outcomes.

The B.C. Greens will remain strong in progressive enclaves, particularly around Nelson, while the B.C. NDP faces the challenge of defending its gains from 2020 in the face of a re-energized conservative movement.

As of today, we are 25 days away from October 19th Election Day.


2024 British Columbia Provincial Election | Regional Riding Analysis

Part 1 | Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention, and Subject to Change



The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | BC NDP Will Implement a Dignified Province-Wide Supportive Housing Agenda

In British Columbia, Single Room Occupancy (SRO) units have long served as a last resort for many of the province’s most vulnerable individuals, including low-income residents, those with mental health challenges, and people grappling with homelessness.

However, these aging, often dilapidated buildings are increasingly unfit for human habitation. As such, there is an urgent need for the British Columbia government to transition vulnerable populations out of rundown SROs in Vancouver, Victoria and elsewhere, toward sustainable, supportive housing models.

By providing care similar to the successful systems used in European countries like Finland, B.C. can address the root causes of homelessness, poverty, and social marginalization while promoting long-term well-being and social integration.

In a 2022 interview with B.C. Legislative reporter Katie DeRosa, then with the Vancouver Sun and now in the same role with the CBC, B.C.’s New Democratic Party Attorney General and Minister Responsible for Housing, David Eby — who was running to replace Premier John Horgan, who had resigned as Premier for health reasons, as leader of the BC NDP — had the following to say about the need for government to provide dignified supportive housing for members of British Columbia’s vulnerable populations living in communities across the province, and move these abandoned individuals out of rundown SROs …

Premier David Eby addresses need to transition people out of SROs

“There really hasn’t been a co-ordinated strategy or a plan about how we get out of the problems of Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside, Victoria and elsewhere. I think … putting an invisible fence around neighbourhoods and saying ‘this is the best we can do’ and just hope that things work out, it’s a strategy that will no longer carry us forward.” Eby said if he’s successful in his bid to replace Premier John Horgan … he’ll co-ordinate a long-term response to homelessness issues across the province, with the support and assistance from the federal government, our province’s towns and cities, and concerned groups.

In point of fact, Premier David Eby has committed to just that, copying the Finnish model that provides supported and affordable housing.

Juha Kaakinen, Finnish CEO of the Y-Foundation, providing low-cost housing to the homeless

“We had to get rid of the night shelters and short-term hostels we still had back then. They had a very long history in Finland, and everyone could see they were not getting people out of homelessness. We decided to reverse the assumptions,” says Juha Kaakinen, CEO of Finland’s Y-Foundation, which provides low-cost flats to homeless people across Finland.

The Deplorable Conditions of SROs

SROs, originally constructed as affordable housing for the working class, have deteriorated significantly over the decades. Many SRO units in cities like Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna are plagued by chronic disrepair, pest infestations, poor heating and ventilation systems, inadequate plumbing, and a lack of basic sanitation. These environments are not only uncomfortable but dangerous, often exacerbating the mental and physical health challenges faced by their residents.

Research shows a strong correlation between poor living conditions and poor health outcomes, including increased rates of addiction, infectious diseases, and mental health crises. Furthermore, many SRO buildings are located in areas with high crime rates, compounding the risks for residents already facing social vulnerabilities. In essence, SROs have become a symbol of the failure to provide adequate housing and services to the people who need them most. Moving vulnerable individuals out of these dangerous environments is not only a moral imperative, but also a matter of public health and safety.

The Case for Supportive Housing

Supportive housing offers a more sustainable solution to the complex needs of the vulnerable populations currently residing in SROs. Unlike SROs, which often serve as temporary, stop-gap measures, supportive housing provides stable, permanent accommodations where individuals have access to social, medical, and psychological services on-site. This model addresses not only the need for safe and secure housing but also the underlying issues that contribute to homelessness and instability, such as mental health disorders, addiction, and unemployment.


The Globe and Mail’s Kerry Gold on how Finland is solving the problem of homelessness.

In European countries like Finland and Austria, supportive housing has proven to be remarkably successful. Finland, for instance, has implemented the “Housing First” model, which provides stable housing to homeless individuals as the first step toward addressing other social issues. This approach has reduced homelessness by over 50% since its introduction in 2008, with most formerly homeless individuals remaining housed long-term. Austria follows a similar model with an emphasis on affordable, long-term housing paired with social services, which has also led to positive outcomes for at-risk populations.

For B.C., adopting a comparable approach would mean transitioning away from crisis management in the form of emergency shelters or rundown SROs and toward long-term solutions that focus on stability, health, and empowerment.

Supportive housing projects, when coupled with services such as healthcare, employment training, and mental health support, help individuals reintegrate into society, reduce their dependence on public services, and lead more fulfilling lives.

Note should be made that Premier David Eby’s government alone has a long term strategy — that they have committed to implement in their next term of government —  to transition members of our vulnerable population out of rundown SROs and substandard accommodation into supportive housing

Cost Efficiency and Long-Term Benefits of Building Supportive Housing

One of the most compelling arguments for supportive housing is its cost-effectiveness. Studies from both Europe and North America demonstrate that investing in supportive housing ultimately saves governments money in the long run. Homelessness and inadequate housing impose significant costs on public systems, including healthcare, law enforcement, and emergency services.

For instance, individuals living on the streets or in unstable environments are more likely to require emergency medical attention, experience police interactions, or become involved in the criminal justice system. In contrast, when people are find safe haven and community in supportive housing, they use fewer emergency services and are better able to manage chronic health conditions, or avoid encounters with law enforcement. Finland’s Housing First model has shown that for every dollar spent on housing and support, the government saves approximately $2 in costs related to homelessness.

B.C., with its high cost of living and significant homeless population, faces similar challenges. Building and maintaining supportive housing units may initially require significant investment, but it will result in long-term savings by reducing strain on public health, criminal justice, and social services systems. Moreover, the social and economic benefits of helping individuals regain stability, employment, and health far outweigh the upfront costs.

In a government publication titled Lost in Transition, the cost of construction of thousands of supportive housing units would be made possible in part by the savings that would accrue from merging the 277 social services agencies on the DTES into 30 umbrella organizations.

Each of the 277 social agencies employs an Executive Director — at an average annual salary of $500,000 — Directors of Finance, Directors of Human Resources, Managers of Supported Housing, Property Managers and other senior administrative staff — each of these 247 individuals earning up to $375,000 annually — a duplication of services and administration funded by the province, Merging agencies would save more than $1 billion dollars annually that would helo to pay for the cost of building supportive housing on the DTES, and across the province.

The Lost in Transition report questioned if such duplication of services properly serves the interests of those who are resident, and cared for, on the DTES.

There was also recommendation in the Lost in Transition report that argued for the provincial appointment of a Commissioner who would oversee the reformation of the provision of services on the DTES, a person with the authority of a Deputy Minister who would report only to a provincially appointed Board of Directors, which would oversee the transition of the current service model, reporting as well as to the office of the Premier.

A Moral and Social Imperative of Providing Dignified Supportive Housing


Eby government planning to take co-ordination of housing provision for B.C.’s most vulnerable citizens

Finally, there’s a moral dimension to the issue.

In a society as wealthy and resource-rich as British Columbia, allowing vulnerable members of our population to languish in unsafe, unsanitary SRO units reflects poorly on social priorities.

The government has a responsibility — a responsibility recognized by those within the B.C.  New Democrat government — to protect its most vulnerable citizens, ensuring that these individuals have access to the basic necessities of life, including safe housing, healthcare, and social support.

Housing is not just a commodity; it is a human right.

By moving away from the outdated, harmful practice of relying on SROs & instead investing in supportive housing, B.C. can take a meaningful step toward ending homelessness and improving the quality of life for our most marginalized citizens.

Relocating vulnerable populations out of rundown SROs and into supportive housing is not just a practical solution; it is an ethical and economic necessity.

In adopting the supportive housing model, British Columbia can — and will, with the re-election of an NDP government — address homelessness more effectively, reduce the long-term social, moral and medical costs associated with inadequate housing, while promoting a more inclusive and caring society.

The time to act is now, with the re-election of a David Eby-led government.

The benefits of the B.C. New Democrats’ approach to building dignified housing for our most vulnerable population will be felt for generations to come.

#BCPoli | Whither Now BC United Chief Kevin Falcon?

Kevin Falcon currently sits in the British Columbia Legislature as BC United party Leader of the Loyal Opposition, to Premier David Eby’s BC NDP government.

As we wrote yesterday, Kevin Falcon’s BC United campaign for re-election is currently in the doldrums, with the very real prospect — if polls are to be believed — that BC United might very well be wiped off the political map this fall. In fact, VanRamblings has been told that Mr. Falcon is currently running (a distant) second to the BC Conservative’s Dallas Brodie in his home riding of Vancouver Quilchena.

This past Thursday, August 15th, federal Conservative / political observer / past Managing Editor at the Vancouver Sun / 2014 Vancouver NPA candidate for Mayor / former publisher-editor of Business in Vancouver, Kirk LaPointe, wrote a withering column titled,  Time for Kevin Falcon to Bid Adieu and Become B.C.’s Biden.

“Kevin Falcon is banking on having his Gordon Wilson moment — to ignite BC United as Wilson’s Leaders’ Debate performance did for the 1991 BC Liberals, rising above the onstage bickering of the NDP’s Mike Harcourt and the Social Credit’s Rita Johnson to deliver the famous line: ‘This reminds me of a couple of kids in a sandbox. I’m not interested in what happened 10 years ago; I’m interested in what happens tomorrow.’ Falcon should worry less about an upcoming debate and more about standing in the way of change.

Falcon’s party’s understandable bitterness about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ought to be set aside if the BC United team is serious about ending the NDP reign. If it wants to oust government, it ought to lend its experienced election machinery to the party in the best position to properly optimize it in the approaching campaign.

But it depends on the guy at the top, the guy who must regret dispatching Rustad from BC United on his birthday two years ago — to do what in his heart he must know by now is best for B.C.

If he is interested in change, Kevin Falcon needs a Biden moment.”

In point of fact, not only have several sitting members of BC United deserted the party (Lorne Doerkson, Elenore Sturko, Teresa Wat), the staff responsible for running BC United’s election campaign have also been leaving the party in droves.

Again, as we wrote yesterday, word from BC Conservative sources is that Kevin Falcon will, indeed, experience his Joe Biden moment, and resign as leader of BC United before month’s end, caving into pressure from all quarters, not to mention the pragmatism of acknowledging polling over the months that has BC United being obliterated at the polls this upcoming October.

As we wrote yesterday, we don’t believe this “speculation” / wishful thinking.

Why not?


BC United caucus members, l-r: Trevor Halford, Todd Stone, Shirley Bond, Mike Bernier, Coralee Oakes

For a start, the remaining MLAs in the BC United caucus running for re-election under the party’s banner — Todd Stone and Peter Milobar in Kamloops, Shirley Bond in Prince George, Coralee Oakes in Prince George Cariboo-North, Mike Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, Jackie Tegart in Fraser-Nicola, Ian Paton in Delta South, and Trevor Halford in Surrey-White Rock — would be left high and dry if BC United were to fold their tent (given that the BC Conservatives have already nominated candidates in each of those ridings), a Kevin Falcon decision to step down as leader would serve to create chaos in the lives of the loyal BC United caucus members who are running for re-election, effectively snuffing out their chance at another term in the BC Legislature, not to mention their political careers and aspirations.

In addition, let us not forget the remaining 87 members of the BC United team running for election under the BC United banner in ridings across our province.

BC United enters the campaign as the second most well-funded campaign, just behind the BC NDP, and miles ahead of the BC Conservatives. Anything can happen during the course of the upcoming 28-day British Columbia election campaign. Kevin Falcon and BC United could very well experience a Lazurus or Phoenix-like re-birth, arising from the dead to fight another day for their principles, as duly elected members in good standing, in the British Columbia Legislature.

VanRamblings will have more to say about Kevin Falcon — of a kindly and generous nature — in the days to come. To be quite honest, we are flummoxed that Kevin Falcon, once a celebrated member of Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberal caucus, a builder of the first order, a relatively non-partisan happy warrior in Campbell’s government, who was always prepared to work across the aisle, has fallen on such hard times politically. We’ll write about that grievous circumstance another day.


Bill Tieleman, a VanRamblings neighbour and friend, great chef and oenophile, and all around good guy

Note: VanRamblings’ friend, Bill Tieleman, an all around good guy, one of the most authentic and humane men, not to mention a well-informed and principled politico, and just darn good human being, which is to say, one of the best humans of our acquaintance, now or ever — informs us that in point of fact, the Writ will be dropped on September 21st, not September 14th, as we wrote earlier (we thought there’d be a 35-day election period … apparently not … woe is us … alas).

#BCElection | Who Will Form Government Post October 19? | Who Knows?


L-r, Premier David Eby;  Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC

One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.

The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.

Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.

Unless …


William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier

The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.


Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.

Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.

As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.

We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Party incumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.

The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.

Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.

Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …

See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …