Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.
According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s noviceBC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.
VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.
Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.
Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.
According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.
Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.
VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.
John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.
Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North — there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently the wildly popular BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the Stikine, and current Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship and Minister Responsible for Fisheries in David Eby’s BC NDP government hardly constitutes a winning seat up north for the BC Conservative Party, so John Rustad would likely be denied a sweep of the ridings outside of Metro Vancouver.
All is not lost for John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, though, which VanRamblings will write about later in the week.
Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.
Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.
We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.
Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s 43rd provincial election.
As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.
Two hundred and eight-five days from today, British Columbians go to the polls to elect a new government.
Will the citizens of British Columbia return the government of David Eby to an unprecedented third term in government for the British Columbia New Democratic Party? The polls seem to think so — but if you follow politics, you know that a day in politics can be equivalent to a year in the political realm. Whatever the polls may say, it is not until the votes of citizens have been counted that determines the “winner”, and who will form government in the succeeding four years.
As is the case in every election, much is on the line.
Health care, housing, and the cost of living feature as primary issues.
Which of the four main provincial parties do British Columbians believe is best fit to serve the public interest?
If David Coletto’s Abacus poll is any indication, the BC NDP — with its prohibitive lead in the polls — has the confidence of British Columbians, the citizens of our fine province seemingly set to return David Eby’s competent, hands-on, activist administration to government, come the late evening of Saturday, October 19, 2024.
Just finished an new @abacusdataca survey in BC, n=1,000, Nov 22 to Nov 28, 2023
Will put out the results this week, but BC NDP looking solid and the BC United in some serious trouble.#bcpolipic.twitter.com/UX6PUx6m7y
Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and in northern British Columbia.
According to Mr. Coletto …
Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.
The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).
The Abacus poll found that British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of our province than Canadians in other provinces.
In the Abacus survey, 34% of British Columbians indicated they felt the province is headed in the right direction, 10-points higher than polling taken in Ontario, and 11-points higher than Canadians across Canada feel about our own country.
On October 21, 2021, the Government of British Columbia appointed Justice Nitya Iyer, Linda Tynan and Chief Electoral Officer Anton Boegman to serve as the 2021 commissioners on British Columbia’sElectoral Redistribution Commission. Justice Iyer was appointed the chair. In February 2022, the commission opened public consultations for the redistribution of provincial electoral districts. The Commission’s report, published on October 3, 2022, proposed a total of 93 electoral districts, up from 87 districts. Six new ridings were proposed for areas with rapid population growth, with an additional 71 ridings having their boundaries adjusted to accommodate for geographic, demographic, and other concerns.
According to David Coletto, were an election held today, based on the polling conducted by Abacus Data, the BC NDP would win an unprecedented 80 seats in the Brltish Columbia legislature, with Kevin Falcon’s BC United Party (formerly BC Liberal party) winning a mere 6 seats (including Mr. Falcon’s home riding of Vancouver Quilchena), the newly formed BC Conservative Party, under the leadership of John Rustad set to win 6 seats, with Green Party of BC leader Sonia Furstenau left as the sole member of her party in the next term of government.
Believe us when we write the projected Abacus Data outcome — and attendant seat count — of the October 19, 2024 British Columbia election is not something any of the provincial party leaders want, or in any way, shape or form hope for.
At present, David Eby’s BC NDP government holds a comfortable 13-seat majority, holding 57 BC NDP seats out of the current 87 seats in the legislative assembly. As such, each elected member of the BC NDP is either a Minister, a Parliamentary Secretary, the House Speaker, or a Deputy Speaker, keeping themselves out of trouble, hard at work, and earning significant monies on top of their annual $115,045.93 salary as an elected Member of the British Columbia Legislature.
Ministers earn a $57,522.97 salary top up, as does the House Speaker, with the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Deputy Speaker earning an extra $40,266.08, and Parliamentary Secretaries taking in an extra $17,256.89 annually.
Were the David Eby government to elect 80 members to the B.C. legislature come Saturday, October 19th, an Eby government would find themselves with 23 MLAs, who — over time — would become disenchanted, unfulfilled and ready to either break with the party over environmental or other issues — to form their own party — while creating havoc within the BC NDP, leaving the government in disarray.
One can only hope that B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon is correct when he says that BC United is thechoicefor any British Columbian who wants change.
By election day, Falcon told The Tyee, the Conservative support will return to his party, making it competitive again with the NDP. That kind of turnaround has happened before, he added, giving the example of Christy Clark’s poll-defying BC Liberal victory in 2013 and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim’s ABC winning in Vancouver with a new party and an unfamiliar name.
For British Columbians of conscience, let’s hope for a victory and a comfortable majority for the British Columbia New Democratic Party come October 19, 2024, with a sizeable B.C. United opposition, a smattering of elected B.C. Conservative MLAs, and a sizeable Green Party of B.C. contingent of progressive, hold the BC NDP government’s feet to the fire, members of the B.C. legislative assembly.
Jordan Leichnitz, the NDP member of the Curse of Politics podcast, in the Oddball Predictions category, has a prediction on the outcome of the 2024 BC provincial election, and how each of the parties will do.
Following a 415-day break from publishing on VanRamblings, we return in 2024 to cover municipal, provincial and federal politics, and much much more.
In the coming months, VanRamblings will cover the second full year of the ABC civic administration at Vancouver City Hall, British Columbia’s upcoming provincial election — to be held on Saturday, October 19th, the first election for David Eby as Premier of the province of British Columbia — and the state of federal politics.
Fifty per cent of the countries across our globe go to the polls this year, so it is likely we’ll cover aspects of some of those elections, most particularly the morass that is politics in the United States.
As has been the case dating back to VanRamblings’ first column — published in February 2004 (the VanRamblings blog created by current Vancouver City Councillor Mike Klassen — who told us, “Raymond, you need a blog. Let me see what I can do.”) — more often than not, Monday through Thursday we’ll write on a number of topics, ranging from homelessness to health, politics to tech, and more.
Friday will be given over to Arts Friday— mainly cinema, we think you’ll find, in a bit of a change, this Thursday focusing on VanRamblings’ Best Picture Oscar predictions, and on Friday, our Best Actress / Actor, etc. predictions — Saturdays to Stories of a Life (although, for the next while we’ll focus on a Redux re-telling of previous Stories), and Sundays to Music, with a focus on the identification of our favourite 100 albums of all time, replete with audio, video and lots of storytelling.
After having been “away” for 59 weeks, chances are that it’ll take us a while to build back our readership — we’ve begun publishing now, in preparation for daily coverage of 2024’s British Columbia provincial election when, if history offers any indication, VanRamblings’ “daily hits” spikes to 10,000 to 50,000+ each day of the 60 days we publish prior to election day, in this case, as above, on October 19th.
As we wrote elsewhere recently, the central thematic structure of VanRamblings going forward will be kindness.
In a world rent with division, misinformation, rabid and accusatory partisanship, a spiritual hollowness, loneliness, anger, and so much more that is disquieting, VanRamblings will make every attempt to be kind to those about whom we write (although, we may / likely will take “entities” to task, when we feel it is deserving).
We do, however, reserve the right to disparage federal Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, who we believes represents an existential threat to the Canada we know and love. Even at that, we will acknowledge Mr. Poilievre’s humanity.
Pierre Poilievre says the quiet part out loud: he disdains ‘brainy people’, knowledge and expertise.
It’s why he and the CPC pose an existential threat to Canadian institutions and our way of life in this country.
Wherever possible, we’ll also attempt to keep columns to under a thousand words (we’re striving for 750 – 800 words), and on some days may publish a much shortened column. The exception, this week, will be Stories of a Life Redux — a republishing of an earlier Stories of a Life column (we will publish original content in this category in the weeks and months to come) — which will run long, at 1400 words.
VanRamblings will celebrate its 20th anniversary next month.
At 73 years of age, the writer-editor of VanRamblings — after several years of health challenges (hey, this getting old thing, it ain’t for wimps, although we’re feeling much better health-wise, at present) — is twenty years older than when we first began publishing on this peripatetic blog and, sad to say, we lack the “sit in front of the computer for 72 consecutive hours to publish a column” energy we once did.
The above said, we don’t believe we’ve lost a step when it comes to forming an opinion, and the recording of that opinion, which some may see as salutary, while others may have feelings on the matter that are not exactly in accord.
As of today, Friday, November 18, 2022, David Eby becomes the 37th Premier of the Province of British Columbia. Glad tidings for our province, and glad tidings for the British Columbia New Democratic Party, B.C.’s current sitting government.
David Eby, the duly elected three-term Member of the Legislature, who since his election to Victoria in 2013, has more than ably represented his many grateful constituents who reside in his Vancouver Point-Grey riding, as a community activist extraordinaire, and an on the ground advocate for any constituent who walks through the doors of his constituency office located on West Broadway just west of Macdonald, in the heart of the welcoming westside Kitsilano neighbourhood.
David Eby and David Eby alone will salvage a somewhat long in the tooth BC New Democratic government, as a steady as she goes but decidedly activist Premier intent on getting things done for all British Columbians, resident in the North, throughout the Interior, on Vancouver Island & across B.C.’s urban metropolises.
David Eby may well be the most sympathetic and authentic political figure this province has ever seen — just you wait and see — and as such represents not just the great hope of the BC NDP to retain government past the 2024 provincial election, but the great hope for all British Columbians who, over the next 24 months, will come to cherish David Eby as the once-in-a-generation inspirational leader who will lead our province through the certain-to-be challenging times ahead.
Premier David Eby has his work cut out for him, but from all reports he’s going to hit the ground running.
In an October 7, 2022 column in The Vancouver Sun, arising from an extensive poll by Angus Reid gauging the rate of satisfaction British Columbians felt for the incumbent John Horgan government, columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote …
“An opinion poll this week from the Angus Reid institute indicated the public is far from content with the NDP’s handling of major issues. On homelessness, the opioid crisis, labour shortages and seniors care — the verdict was negative: “poor/very poor job.”
Those responding to the survey gave the NDP government a 73% negative rating on health care, a 77% negative on dealing with the cost of living, and an 85% negative rating for its handling of housing affordability.
New Democrats should be worried about what happens when Premier John Horgan, the most popular British Columbia leader in decades, exits the Premier’s office, leaving behind only public discontent over how the government has been handling the major issues.”
Then Premier-designate David Eby’s response to the Angus Reid poll, and Mr. Palmer’s concerning column in The Vancouver Sun?
Premier David Eby releases 100-day plan for B.C. housing, health & safety
An article in the Canadian Press reads: “The B.C. New Democrats’ newly minted leader and Premier is promising “significant action” to bolster the province’s affordable housing, health-care system, public safety and environmental policies.”
At a press conference, David Eby rolled out his plans for his first 100 days.
“I’m setting down a marker today on these priorities for our government: housing, health care, the environment, public safety,” he said at a news conference.
“At the end of those 100 days, you will have seen announcements (and) activity from a government focused on delivering results for British Columbians that set out the groundwork for how, in the next two years, we are going to deliver significant change for British Columbians.”
Eby campaigned for leader on a housing plan that includes a $500-million fund to provide grants to non-profits & First Nations to buy rental properties, pledging to fast-track approvals & construction of multi-family housing projects.
On the health-care front, Premier Eby said his government will be looking at the process used to assess people with international credentials “to get them working as quickly as possible” to address a dire need in the health system.
When it comes to concerns over public safety, Premier Eby said there are issues where the criminal justice system is not responding they way it needs to.
“You will see action from our government on this issue. But what you will see is action that actually addresses the core issue that is causing so much chaos in communities: the issues of mental health, addiction, homelessness, and the need to intervene and break the cycle that people are involved in,” he said.
Mr. Eby is also promising to redirect fossil fuel subsidies to clean energy.
“British Columbians are really clear, we cannot continue to subsidize fossil fuels and expect clean energy to manifest somehow. We cannot continue to expand fossil fuel infrastructure and hit our climate goals,” he said.
One week ago, David Eby released a bold plan to take ownership of the DTES.
David Eby, then a lawyer with the B.C. Civil Liberties Association, speaks to reporters in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside in 2009. Photo by Ric Ernst /PNG
The area is worse than ever, says Eby, who knows whereof he speaks. As a young, activist lawyer, Eby got his start representing the residents of the DTES, writes Vaughn Palmer in a November 11th article in the Vancouver Sun.
Instead of joining the legions of buck-passers, Premier Eby proposes that his government take ownership of the troubled area.
“The key piece that’s been missing has been a single level of government to bottom line what’s happening in the neighbourhood,” Eby declared early in his bid for the NDP leadership.
“The crisis in the Downtown Eastside is well beyond what the city of Vancouver can take on, on their own. Ottawa is too far away.”
“The opportunity here is for the province to take a leadership role and say we will take responsibility. We will co-ordinate this. We’ll work with the city. We’ll work with the feds. We’ll work with the large Indigenous population down there.”
Measures will include replacing the single-room occupancy hotels “that are burning down, that people won’t live in, and replacing them with appropriate housing,” says Eby.
He’ll also replace the sidewalk-clogging tent cities that are the area’s most obvious sign of deterioration.
“I don’t support encampments,” Eby told Richard Zussman of Global TV. “I don’t think they’re a solution to homelessness. I don’t think they’re safe for the people who live in them. I’ve seen too many fires, too many injuries. People have died.”
Another element of Premier Eby’s thinking about the crisis on the streets emerged back in August when he came out in favour of involuntary treatment for people who overdose repeatedly.
“When someone overdoses twice in a day and they show up in the emergency room for the second time, a second overdose in the same day, the idea that we release that person back out into the street to overdose the third time and die or to have profound brain injury or just to come back to the emergency room again, seems very bizarre,” Eby told Postmedia’s Katie DeRosa.
“We need to have better interventions and that could include and should include involuntary care for people to make sure they at least have a chance,” he said.
Make no mistake, Premier David Eby means to make a difference, as PostMedia’s Katie DeRosa wrote just two days ago, David Eby, as an …
“Idealist and pragmatist. Activist and member of the establishment. Workaholic and yoga dad. Fixer of the root causes of crime, housing unaffordability and a crumbling health care system, intractable issues he’s under pressure to make progress on before he faces B.C. Liberal leader Kevin Falcon in the 2024 election.
Those around him say the 46-year-old father of two is driven, laser-focused and relentless and will likely expect the same from members of his soon-to-be-named Cabinet, the swearing-in of Premier Eby’s new and revitalized Cabinet set for December 7th. He’s also not afraid to defy those he believes are standing in the way of progress, which is why he has promised to override local mayors reluctant to approve affordable housing projects.
“His approach is calm, methodical, considerate, and broad-thinking,” says Joy MacPhail, the former NDP Cabinet Minister and interim party leader, and ICBC Board Chair when the reforms were underway in 2018, who remains a mentor to Eby.”
Premier-delegate David Eby and his transition team. Left to right: Chief of Staff Matt Smith; co-chair of the transition team, Doug White, chair of B.C.’s First Nations Justice Council & former chief of the Snuneymuxw First Nation; Premier David Eby; and former BC NDP leader and Finance Minister, Carole James, a co-chair of the transition team. Photo by Darren Stone /Victoria Times Colonist
David Eby was sworn in as Premier at the Musqueam Community Centre, the location a powerful symbol of reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, Eby told PostMedia’s Katie DeRosa.
Mr. Eby took the oath of office at 10 a.m. this morning in front of Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin at the community centre on the Musqueam First Nation.
“I am excited to be taking this important step close to home where my family and the people who have always supported me live,” Eby said Tuesday in a statement.
Mr. Eby said he’s grateful to Chief Wayne Sparrow, the Musqueam councillors and the Musqueam people for hosting the ceremony in their community.
“Because of their efforts, this event will be a powerful symbol of a shared vision for a province that delivers results for all British Columbians, in close partnership with Indigenous Peoples,” he said.
The community centre at 6735 Salish Dr. in Vancouver is in the Vancouver-Quilchena riding, which is represented by B.C. Liberal Leader Kevin Falcon. David Eby, 46, is the MLA for the neighbouring riding, Vancouver-Point Grey.
Moving the swearing-in ceremony to Vancouver is also an indication Premier Eby will likely conduct more government business from Vancouver, to be closer to his family. Mr. Eby’s wife, Dr. Cailey Lynch, is a family physician, and the happily married couple have two children, 8-year-old Ezra and 3-year-old Iva.
