L-r, Premier David Eby; Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC
One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.
The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.
Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.
Unless …
William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier
The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.
Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.
Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.
As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.
We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Partyincumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.
The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.
Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.
Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …
See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …
Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.
According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.
Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.
Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.
But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …
Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservativesdo not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.
As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.
Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.
No longer.
Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?
Hmmm.
We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.
In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.
Mario Canseco’s Research Co poll released on January 31, 2024 places the BC NDP in first place
Premier David Eby’s second worst nightmare continues to unfold less than nine months before the 2024 British Columbia provincial election.
David Eby’s worst nightmare, of course, would be a repeat of the 2001 British Columbia election, when voters went to the polls, leaving only two seats from the NDP majority government that held power from 1991 through 2001. From 2001 through 2005, Joy McPhail & Jenny Kwan held the fort for B.C.’s New Democratic Party. Failure on that scale in 2024 would be unimaginably devastating.
In fact, there is a 2001 provincial election scenario that is, at present, unfolding in British Columbia, but it is a redux versionof 2001, where the B.C. New Democratic Party has gained the confidence and largesse of British Columbia voters — seeming to give David Eby, and the BC NDP, an overwhelming majority — and where the renamed name B.C. Liberal Party — now inaptly named, B.C. United — look to be wiped out as a political force in our province, as they seem set to retain a mere six seats in the Legislature, in a house where 93 Members of the Legislature will sit.
Below, we’ll get to why the above scenario is Premier Eby’s 2nd worst nightmare.
Sonia Furstenau, Green Party of British Columbia leader, changing ridings before the 2024 election
Thank you @GraceALore – it’s refreshing to receive a warm welcome and I agree – politics should be about debating issues and ideas, and focused on solutions that help us build a better province for the people we serve. I look forward to a respectful and constructive campaign. https://t.co/8zMUMopOaZ
On the last day of January 2024, Sonia Furstenau announced to the world that she is giving up on British Columbia politics, that she’s frustrated, fed up, worn out, is devastated that British Columbians have failed to support her tenure as leader of the Green Party of B.C., her integrity, her hard work and that of her Green Party colleague, Adam Olsen, and that a very centrist British Columbia electorate have thrown their support to a centrist British Columbia New Democratic Party under the leadership of David Eby, and cast her and her Green Party of British Columbia aside, and no longer want her in place to challenge a B.C. NDP government.
Did Sonia Furstenau voice the (fictional) concerns raised above, yesterday?
No. But she might as well have.
Beacon Hill Park, in Victoria
For, you see, Ms. Furstenau announced Wednesday that in the upcoming 2024 provincial election, rather than run again in the very safe Green Party supporting riding of Cowichan Valley, which she has held comfortably since 2016, instead Ms. Furstenau has chosen to devastate her Green Party supporters and the voting electorate in the Cowichan Valley, by announcing that come this autumn, she will run for office in the riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill — perhaps the safest NDP seat in the province — where she will challenge popular incumbent, Grace Lore, the current Minister of Children and Family Development in the David Eby government.
Note should be made that due to redistribution, Ms. Furstenau’s riding was divided in half, statistically giving the B.C. NDP a three-to-one advantage in the new ridings should she decide to run in either of the two new ridings. Pulling out of the political fray in the Cowichan Valley where she believes she cannot win, in favour of certain defeat in Victora-Beacon Hill, to VanRamblings seems to be a Hobson’s choice.
The above said, we wish Ms. Furstenau well in her political “retirement”, because most assuredly she will not win re-election come this Saturday, October 19th.
VanRamblings imagines after clearing her office she will take some time off, vacationing with her husband, perhaps returning in the spring to supply teach in her Cowichan Valley school district, where the administration will be over the moon to have her back in the fold, given the dire shortage of teachers in our province.
Vancouver Island University, entrance to the Cowichan campus administration office
Returning to teaching will also afford Ms. Furstenau to put in the time necessary to raise her pension to 80% of her annual average teachers’ salary of $90,000+ — whether she resumes her teaching career in the Cowichan Valley, or her “new home” in British Columbia’s capital city, where she would be closer to family.
The University of Victoria
Upon retirement at age 65, Ms. Furstenau will live in comfort financially, her home paid off, her teachers’ pension paying handsomely, supplemented by her Member of the Legislature / leader of the Green Party of BC provincial government pension. In addition, we also expect Vancouver Island University’s Cowichancampus, or should Ms. Furstenau remains in Victoria, the University of Victoria will want to bring her on staff as an instructor, to conduct an evening class or two.
If seeing his current 57-member strong New Democratic Party caucus reduced to two seats, as was the cataclysmic case in 2001, is the nightmare electoral scenario that David Eby fears most (an event unlikely to unfold), as we’ve written previously, securing 80 seats in the Legislature is certainly a nightmare electoral October 19th scenario that our Premier is hoping against hope will not unfold.
Why? As we’ve written previously, and will write again many times in the months to come: with 57 seats in the Legislature, including the Premier’s own Vancouver Point Grey riding seat, British Columbia’s beloved, soon-to-be-a-father for the third time (come June!), the Premier is perfectly content with 57 seats, a comfortable majority, just the right number of seats in the House to portion out Ministers, Parliamentary Secretary and House Speaker jobs, keep his caucus members busy, keeping them happy, as well, as this “extra work” affords each of the members of the NPD caucus additional salary to their $115,045.93 annual MLA compensation.
Much more than a 57-seat win, and the Premier faces undesired “trouble”, cuz there are no more additional, well-paying jobs for him to give out, leaving the “extra NDP MLAs” largely disenfranchised, and at loose ends with themselves.
Next thing you know, a rump group of B.C. Dippers will hive off from the provincial party to form their own — say, five member, environmentally-minded, opposed to LNG and fracking — B.C. political party, affording them the “extra monies” they heretofore had been denied. Politics, lemme tell ya, it ain’t for the faint of heart.
Kevin Falcon, leader of B.C. United, and decidedly on the right, B.C. Conservative leader, John Rustad
Politically in British Columbia, we seem to be living in a redux period.
In 1991, as “Premier” Rita Johnson — when disgraced Socred Premier Bill Vander Zalm resigned from office, the party chose Ms. Johnson as their leader, and Premier — championed the Social Credit party during that year’s provincial election, she not only lost government and 47 legislative seats, the Social Credit Party came in a distant third, the Social Credit Party finis / the Socreds dead, far from phoenix-like, after nearly 41 years in power, the party wiped out, and gone forever.
Once the cabal who run this province removed 1991’s Liberal leader, Gordon Wilson — who secured 17 seats for the B.C. Liberals, a revived B.C. Liberal party became the political standard-bearer for our province’s capitalist forces, an all-too-willing Gordon Campbell made leader, who in 2001 went on to become Premier.
Global BC’s Richard Zussman reports on B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon + the Greens’ Sonia Furstenau
Kevin Falcon, once a well-thought-of activist Minister in the Gordon Campbell government, will soon become the undertaker for the B.C. Liberal renamed B.C United Party, as this capitalist, free market party — whatever it’s name — will soon be but a fading memory on the political landscape of British Columbia provincial politics.
British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly
As for B.C. Conservative Party leader, John Rustad, as the far right gains power across the globe — in Canada, that would be federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre “The Destroyer” Poilievre (“Canada is broken. It’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault,”), as well as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs — steps gingerly into the political vacuum left by a mortally wounded B.C. United Party, Rustad would seem to be on track to become, perhaps, the Leader of Her Majesty’s official loyal Opposition, in the post election, post October next session of the British Columbia Legislature.
Two hundred and eight-five days from today, British Columbians go to the polls to elect a new government.
Will the citizens of British Columbia return the government of David Eby to an unprecedented third term in government for the British Columbia New Democratic Party? The polls seem to think so — but if you follow politics, you know that a day in politics can be equivalent to a year in the political realm. Whatever the polls may say, it is not until the votes of citizens have been counted that determines the “winner”, and who will form government in the succeeding four years.
As is the case in every election, much is on the line.
Health care, housing, and the cost of living feature as primary issues.
Which of the four main provincial parties do British Columbians believe is best fit to serve the public interest?
If David Coletto’s Abacus poll is any indication, the BC NDP — with its prohibitive lead in the polls — has the confidence of British Columbians, the citizens of our fine province seemingly set to return David Eby’s competent, hands-on, activist administration to government, come the late evening of Saturday, October 19, 2024.
Just finished an new @abacusdataca survey in BC, n=1,000, Nov 22 to Nov 28, 2023
Will put out the results this week, but BC NDP looking solid and the BC United in some serious trouble.#bcpolipic.twitter.com/UX6PUx6m7y
Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and in northern British Columbia.
According to Mr. Coletto …
Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.
The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).
The Abacus poll found that British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of our province than Canadians in other provinces.
In the Abacus survey, 34% of British Columbians indicated they felt the province is headed in the right direction, 10-points higher than polling taken in Ontario, and 11-points higher than Canadians across Canada feel about our own country.
On October 21, 2021, the Government of British Columbia appointed Justice Nitya Iyer, Linda Tynan and Chief Electoral Officer Anton Boegman to serve as the 2021 commissioners on British Columbia’sElectoral Redistribution Commission. Justice Iyer was appointed the chair. In February 2022, the commission opened public consultations for the redistribution of provincial electoral districts. The Commission’s report, published on October 3, 2022, proposed a total of 93 electoral districts, up from 87 districts. Six new ridings were proposed for areas with rapid population growth, with an additional 71 ridings having their boundaries adjusted to accommodate for geographic, demographic, and other concerns.
According to David Coletto, were an election held today, based on the polling conducted by Abacus Data, the BC NDP would win an unprecedented 80 seats in the Brltish Columbia legislature, with Kevin Falcon’s BC United Party (formerly BC Liberal party) winning a mere 6 seats (including Mr. Falcon’s home riding of Vancouver Quilchena), the newly formed BC Conservative Party, under the leadership of John Rustad set to win 6 seats, with Green Party of BC leader Sonia Furstenau left as the sole member of her party in the next term of government.
Believe us when we write the projected Abacus Data outcome — and attendant seat count — of the October 19, 2024 British Columbia election is not something any of the provincial party leaders want, or in any way, shape or form hope for.
At present, David Eby’s BC NDP government holds a comfortable 13-seat majority, holding 57 BC NDP seats out of the current 87 seats in the legislative assembly. As such, each elected member of the BC NDP is either a Minister, a Parliamentary Secretary, the House Speaker, or a Deputy Speaker, keeping themselves out of trouble, hard at work, and earning significant monies on top of their annual $115,045.93 salary as an elected Member of the British Columbia Legislature.
Ministers earn a $57,522.97 salary top up, as does the House Speaker, with the Deputy Speaker and Assistant Deputy Speaker earning an extra $40,266.08, and Parliamentary Secretaries taking in an extra $17,256.89 annually.
Were the David Eby government to elect 80 members to the B.C. legislature come Saturday, October 19th, an Eby government would find themselves with 23 MLAs, who — over time — would become disenchanted, unfulfilled and ready to either break with the party over environmental or other issues — to form their own party — while creating havoc within the BC NDP, leaving the government in disarray.
One can only hope that B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon is correct when he says that BC United is thechoicefor any British Columbian who wants change.
By election day, Falcon told The Tyee, the Conservative support will return to his party, making it competitive again with the NDP. That kind of turnaround has happened before, he added, giving the example of Christy Clark’s poll-defying BC Liberal victory in 2013 and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim’s ABC winning in Vancouver with a new party and an unfamiliar name.
For British Columbians of conscience, let’s hope for a victory and a comfortable majority for the British Columbia New Democratic Party come October 19, 2024, with a sizeable B.C. United opposition, a smattering of elected B.C. Conservative MLAs, and a sizeable Green Party of B.C. contingent of progressive, hold the BC NDP government’s feet to the fire, members of the B.C. legislative assembly.
Jordan Leichnitz, the NDP member of the Curse of Politics podcast, in the Oddball Predictions category, has a prediction on the outcome of the 2024 BC provincial election, and how each of the parties will do.
