Tag Archives: bc ndp

#BCPoli | John Rustad: B.C.’s 48th Premier | David Eby Resigns as BC NDP Leader

2017 By-Election, BC Election 2024, BC Votes 2024, , , , , ,


Premier David Eby rallies the troops | Yet another misstep in a failing 2024 BC NDP campaign for office

Premier David Eby and the British Columbia New Democratic Party are on track to lose the 2024 provincial election.

Whether the result on Election Night, October 19th, will allow the BC NDP the opportunity to save face by retaining 39 to 42 seats, or whether British Columbia’s hapless New Democrats will be wiped out on October 19th — leaving the party with a rump caucus of 25 electeds — is a story that can only be told 18 days from now.


John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of B.C., and the next Premier of British Columbia

In Part 1 of a 3 part series VanRamblings will publish this week on the sorry fate of one of British Columbia’s two main legacy political parties — which for the past 7 years has held government in our province —  today VanRamblings will set about to explore the 15 or so ridings across the province the B.C. New Democrats are guaranteed to lose — consigning the party to an ignominious defeat — and provincial ridings that are currently on the bubble, leaning John Rustad Conservative.

We’re going to skip around a bit, but because losses for the B.C. NDP on Vancouver Island, long a New Democratic Party stronghold, will prove so devastating to the governing party — but not for much longer — let’s start on the Island, shall we?

You can reference detail about the devastation the B.C. New Democrats are about to experience of Vancouver Island, by clicking/tapping on this VanRamblings post .


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the North Island candidates, click or tap here.

B.C. New Democrat Michele Babchuk, who won the seat in a John Horgan pandemic sweep in November 2020, will lose to physician Dr. Anna Kindy, who lost her ability to practice when Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry ordered that health care workers who had not been vaccinated for COVID-19 would not be allowed to practice medicine in the province. Dr. Kindy — a potential Minister of Health in a John Horgan government — led a delegation of 200 North Island residents to raucously protest outside B.C. Legislature, expressing their disdain for the “health” edicts of the B.C. New Democratic government. In 2024, it’s payback time.

Courtenay-Comox. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding over incumbent Ronna-Rae Leonard — who only won her seat by the slimmest of margins, in a traditional right-of-centre seat — on October 19th. Not for no reason has John Rustad been front and centre in the riding multiple times since the election kick off.

Victoria-Beacon Hill. Held by the B.C. NDP since 2005, incumbent Grace Lore, currently the Minister of Children and Family Development, is in a tight three-way race with Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, there’s a very real possibility / probability Mr. Thielmann could prove victorious on Election Night.

Ladysmith-Oceanside. Adam Walker, elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election, and booted from the party for undisclosed reasons in September 2023, is running in 2024 as an Independent, with the support of the Green Party. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a small business owner, with a degree in Political Science and Criminology. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win, allowing a probable victory for Mr. Fee. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Nanaimo-Lantzville candidates, click or tap here.

Crime and public safety are the issues that will see former BC NDP MLA for Chilliwack — in 2024, a celebrated law and order B.C.Conservative candidate — Gwen O’Mahony, win this riding in a walk on Election Night. Nanaimo-Gabriola remains safe for B.C. NDP incumbent and Minister Social Development and Poverty Reduction, Sheila Malcolmson — a bit of good news for Dippers.

That’s a possible / probable loss of five seats for New Democrats on Vancouver Island, maybe more — all but certain losses in at least three of those ridings.

Enough with the foofaraw. Time to get down to brass tacks.

The B.C. NDP are rock solid to lose six seats, from Cloverdale to Chilliwack.

Langley. A two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.

To wit: High profile B.C. Conservative Elenore Sturko will deny the B.C. NDP’s Mike Starchuk a second term representing Surrey-Cloverdale.

Langley. As we write above, a two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.

1. B.C. NDP incumbent Megan Dykeman will lose her Langley-Walnut Grove seat to B.C. Conservative candidate Misty Van Popta, a Municipal Councillor in the Township of Langley.

2. Incumbent B.C. New Democrat Andrew Mercier, Minister of State for Workforce Development, will be defeated on Election NIght by the B.C. Conservative candidate Jody Toor, who holds a double PhD in Doctor of Integrative Medicine and Doctor of Humanitarian Services with the Board Of Integrative Medicine.

The Fraser Valley is traditionally a very conservative region of our province. Such will prove to be the case in 2024, when B.C. NDP incumbent Pam Alexis, Minister of Agriculture and Food prior to dissolution of the Legislature, will be trounced by the B.C. Conservative’s Reann Gasper, a Fraser Valley real estate agent.

And, finally, while we’re taking a look at ridings along the south arm of the Fraser River: Chilliwack, where the B.C. NDP will lose both seats, with B.C. New Democrat incumbent Dan Coulter going down to defeat to B.C. Conservative candidate Heather Maahs, a well-respected Chilliwack School Trustee since 2008.

In the riding of Chilliwack-Cultus lake, the B.C. NDP’s Kelly Paddon is also on her way out, to be replaced by high profile, Indigenous B.C. Conservative candidate Á’a:líya (A’aliya) Warbus, who was born and raised in Stó:lō Territory, with deep family roots in politics and activism, as the daughter of former Lieutenant Governor of British Columbia Steven Lewis Point.

At least three probable losses on Vancouver Island, and six guaranteed losses for the B.C. NDP along the south arm of the Fraser River. At dissolution, the B.C. New Democrats held 55 seats in the Legislature. The loss of 9 seats would leave the B.C. NDP with 46 seats, one shy of a majority in the  93-seat B.C. Legislature.

And, heck, we’ve only just begun our exploration of ridings the B.C. NDP will lose.

Susie Chant, the one-term B.C. NDP incumbent in the North Vancouver-Seymour riding will lose her seat to B.C. Conservative Sam Chandola, an award-winning technology entrepreneur, come Election Night.

Janet Routledge will lose her Burnaby North seat to Michael Wu, a small business owner, and an Auxiliary Member with the RCMP who works with the Combined Forces Special Enforcement Unit. Mr. Wu speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese.

Let’s skip over to Vernon-Lumby.

Harwinder Sandu, who most unexpectedly won the Okanagan riding of Vernon-Lumby in 2020, in 2024 will be soundly defeated by the B.C. Conservative candidate in the riding, Dennis Giesbrecht, who brings to his run for office a lifetime of invaluable experience in the energy, forestry and ship building industries.

Thus far we’re up to a 12-seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats — and, heck, we’ve not written about the two additional Surrey seats that will be won by B.C. Conservatives on Election Night, and all of the seats along the north arm of the Fraser River, from the five  Tri-Cities seats, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge East, all of which seats are on the bubble, leaning heavily in the direction of electing a swath of B.C. Conservative candidates to the B.C. Legislature.

In a column we wrote last week covering most of the Lower Mainland ridings, we wrote about the three ridings in Richmond currently held by the B.C. NDP, at least two of which will swing to the B.C. Conservatives on Election Night.

Prospects for a majority victory for David Eby’s New Democrats in the 2024 British Columbia provincial election look dire, indeed.

A generous count thus far suggests a 17-seat loss for the incumbent government, leaving them with 38 seats in the British Columbia Legislature.

Not all is lost: David Eby’s New Democrats will pick up three seats they’ve not held before, come Election Night: Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies.

Here’s what our sources in the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives are telling VanRamblings: at this point in time, given how the B.C. NDP campaign has fared up until today, and the momentum John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives have experienced the first week of the campaign, 18 days out from Election Day, VanRamblings’ sources in both mainstream parties tell us that the B.C. New Democrats will likely hold on to only 41 seats, for a 14-seat loss on Election Night.

There are an additional 16 seats that are on the bubble, we are told, that could go either way. VanRamblings’ sources in both political parties believe that 32 seats represents the floor for the New Democrats. Anything less than 35 seats for the B.C. NDP on Election Night, voters across B.C. can expect David Eby to tender his resignation as B.C. NDP leader, when he gives his concession speech.

VanRamblings’ sources in both parties believe the likely outcome on Election Night will allow the New Democrats to hold on to 39 to 42 seats.

The above said, a strong possibility still exists that the B.C. New Democrats could pull out a win on October 19th, securing 48 to 52 seats, by keeping Courtenay-Comox and Victoria-Beacon Hill in the fold, as well as Vernon-Lumby in the Interior, while retaining both Susie Chant’s seat in North Vancouver-Seymour, and Janet Routledge’s Burnaby North seat, with both Lisa Beare —  B.C. NDP Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills — and Bob D’Eith retaining their Maple Ridge seats. Add to those numbers, B.C. NDP pick ups in Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies, and to any seasoned observer, the 2024 British Columbia provincial election is far from decided 18 days out from Election Day.


Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll, published on Monday, September 30, 2024

Projected seat count on Election Night, for all three B.C. political parties …

Philippe J. Fournier at 338.com published his latest compilation poll on Monday.

Tomorrow on VanRamblings we will write about why it is that a decent, hard working, incredibly skilled B.C. New Democratic government who mean well for our province, may go down to defeat to an unschooled crew of (far) right leaning folks who have no experience in government, and who will spend the first year and a half in the Legislature trying to figure out where the washrooms are located, never mind governing for the benefit of all British Columbians.

On Thursday, we’ll write a prescriptive column on what David Eby — in particular, because this election is turning out to be a referendum on David Eby’s governing style — and our beloved B.C. New Democrats can do to right the ship and claim victory on October 19th, or at least save the furniture with a showing in the forties.

In a conversation Sunday afternoon with our friend, architect and former Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Bill McCreery, he asked about why we’re such a smarty pants on why the B.C. NDP will lose the 2024 provincial election, and just where the heck are we getting the information we publish?

The answer: Initially our primary source was the Hotel Pacifico podcast featuring Mike McDonald — the knower of all things British Columbia politics, who has spent time in all 93 ridings across the province and knows each of these ridings intimately and well — Geoff Meggs, former Chief of Staff to Premier John Horgan, and no slouch himself when it comes to understanding B.C. politics, and the very excitable (we’ve loved that about him since 2017, when we saw him bouncing around the Legislature the day John Horgan’s government was sworn into power … although Mr. Zussman’s ever present enthusiasm seems to drive Mr. McDonald nuts), Richard Zussman, Global BC’s skilled and informed Legislative reporter.

In addition to the above, we’ve done our own research on the ridings we’ve written about, reading the local newspapers online, and more. We also listen to coverage of the provincial election on CBC’s morning broadcast, The Early Edition. We are just as addicted to Baldrey’s Beat, at 10:05am on CKNW’s Mike Smyth show. We also read all of Mr. Baldrey’s columns in various of our community newspapers.

We never miss Global BC’s Newshour, most particularly when Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman are talking about the election. Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman, on Global BC’s Focus BC insist that Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies will be pick ups for the New Democrats on Election Night.

And, finally, VanRamblings has our own well-developed and informed sources within both the B.C. New Democratic Party campaign for office, as well as the B.C. Conservative campaign, folks we speak with on an almost daily basis.

At age 74, we’re something of an old fogey and lack the energy we once did — for most elections we’ve written about in the past, 20 hour days for weeks on end was de rigeur to our approach to coverage … we’ve reduced that to six to eight hours a day now, although we’ve pulled an all-nighter or two this election cycle.

We’ve got lots we want to say, and to write, which we’ll do in the days to come.

VanRamblings’ friend and neighbour, raconteur and politico extraordinaire, Bill Tieleman — who we love with all our heart — expressed concern to us this past weekend about our contention that David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats will go down to defeat in the current election.

Why are we — a tried-and-true 61-year member of the NDP — writing so despairingly about the prospects of our beloved NDP? We suggested to Bill, why (in part, we’re sounding the alarm, another part arising in response to a current health issue that has recently come to the fore … time’s a wastin’, we suggested to Bill).

“You must forgive my penchant for optimism, despite daunting odds. We won a majority government in 1996, against a favoured, well-funded foe. So long odds don’t intimidate me at all. You may still be right in what you’ve been writing, but I continue to think the NDP’s several advantages will prevail in this fraught election.”
Bill Tieleman, respected longtime political strategist, commentator and political pundit

From Bill’s lips to God’s ears. May all that is right and good prevail.

#BCPoli | A Troubling Race in Vancouver-Point Grey

BC Election 2024, BC Votes 2024, Canada, canadian politics, Essay, News, Politics, Vancouver, , , , , ,

In the 2024 British Columbia election, Premier David Eby is once again seeking re-election in his home riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, a constituency known for its progressive values and highly educated voters.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Vancouver-Point Grey candidates, click here.

David Eby, leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party (NDP) since November 2022, is facing several challengers, but the one drawing the most controversy is Paul Ratchford, the B.C. Conservative Party candidate.

Mr. Ratchford’s incendiary, partisan remarks about his now fellow B.C. Conservative candidate Elenore Sturko, a former B.C. United MLA, have raised concerns about homophobia and intolerance, potentially shaping the tone of the election campaign in Vancouver-Point Grey, and beyond.

In response to Ms. Sturko’s victory in the Surrey South by-election in 2022, Mr. Ratchford called the just elected MLA a “woke, lesbian, social justice warrior.”

Such language immediately triggered a backlash.

Ms. Sturko — a wife, a mother, and a high profile longtime spokesperson for the Surrey RCMP detachment, as well as a novice candidate in 2022 running with the recently renamed B.C. United political party  — was, as may be seen in the photo above, decidedly over the moon at her victory in the Surrey South riding.

Who, with any degree of integrity and humanity would seek to impinge in a partisan manner on Ms. Sturko’s good fortune in Surrey South, with a cruel comment on what must have been a joyous and halycon night for Elenore Sturko?

Ratchford, in referring to someone’s sexual orientation as part of a derogatory attack plays into harmful stereotypes and marginalizes the LGBTQ community.

The following day, Mr. Ratchford escalated his rhetoric by calling Ms. Sturko a “groomer,” a term long used in anti-LGBTQ narratives to falsely suggest LGBTQ individuals are trying to influence or “recruit” children into their community.

These remarks are not just harmful to Ms. Sturko, who has since joined the B.C. Conservative Party —  in 2024, running in the riding of Surrey-Cloverdale — but also to the broader LGBTQ community, and voters at large.

The “groomer” trope is especially damaging as it revives debunked homophobic and transphobic fears that still resonate in some corners of society.

Employing such a term in modern political discourse reflects an effort to exploit those fears, polarizing communities and harming vulnerable individuals.


L-r, candidates for office in Vancouver-Point Grey: David Eby, Paul Ratchford & Devanyi Singh

For candidate Paul Ratchford running to unseat David Eby in Vancouver-Point Grey — an urban riding that has historically voted for progressive candidates — such comments are likely to alienate a significant portion of the electorate.

Vancouver-Point Grey is home to a socially conscious, diverse population that places a high value on inclusivity and equality.

The area has a substantial LGBTQ population, and its voters are likely to be repelled by the kind of divisive rhetoric Mr. Ratchford has employed.

Residents of the Vancouver-Point Grey riding, many of whom work in education, health care, and in the public service, are generally attuned to the implications of such inflammatory language, recognizing its potential to incite hate and discrimination. Mr. Ratchford’s injurious remarks will likely reinforce perceptions of the B.C. Conservative Party as out of touch with Vancouver-Point Grey’s values.

In addition to offending the LGBTQ community, B.C. Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford’s comments are also problematic for the broader electorate.

Many voters in Vancouver-Point Grey prize civility and fairness in politics.

Personal attacks, particularly those based on sexual orientation, are viewed as inappropriate, but also as distractions from substantive policy discussions.

While issues like housing affordability, health care, and climate change dominate the concerns of Point Grey and Kitsilano residents, Mr. Ratchford’s rhetoric may be seen as a diversion that detracts from addressing these pressing issues.

Given the gravity of his comments, the question arises: Has Paul Ratchford apologized to Elenore Sturko, now his fellow B.C. Conservative candidate, for his earlier hurtful and incendiary remarks?

As of yet, no public apology has been issued.

The absence of an apology underscores the broader challenge facing the B.C. Conservative Party under John Rustad’s leadership.

While Elenore Sturko’s defection to the B.C. Conservatives suggests the party is attempting to broaden its appeal, Mr. Ratchford’s explosive comments stand in stark contrast to this effort, signaling internal contradictions within the party.

At the upcoming all-candidates meeting in Vancouver-Point Grey, where both Paul Ratchford and incumbent Member of the Legislature David Eby will share the stage, Premier Eby is likely to address these remarks head-on.

As a strong advocate for human rights and social justice, David Eby could seize the moment to challenge Mr. Ratchford’s intolerant views, framing the contest as a battle between progressive values and regressive intolerance.

David Eby’s response would resonate with the riding’s electorate, many of whom value inclusion and equality as fundamental principles of good governance.

Given David Eby’s calm demeanour and legal expertise, Mr. Eby will likely approach the issue with a measured tone, appealing to voters’ sense of fairness while subtly highlighting the unsuitability of his opponent.

Meanwhile, the B.C. New Democratic Party’s “war room” has proven adept at capitalizing on their opponents’ missteps.

With the release of footage earlier this week of B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad’s controversial views on COVID vaccines and his insinuation that Dr. Bonnie Henry’s rationale for decisions taken on how to fight COVID and keep British Columbians safe was, in his estimation, tied to efforts to ensure “population control,” … well, it’s entirely plausible the NDP might have additional material that could further undermine Mr. Ratchford’s credibility.

If the B.C. NDP possesses video of Paul Ratchford making similarly offensive comments about the LGBTQ community, they could release it strategically to reinforce the narrative that the B.C. Conservative Party harbours intolerant views.

Such a revelation would almost certainly derail Mr. Ratchford’s campaign, making it difficult for him to gain traction in a riding like Vancouver-Point Grey.

Ultimately, Paul Ratchford’s controversial remarks about Elenore Sturko are likely to be a significant liability in his campaign to unseat David Eby.

In a riding that embraces diversity and progressive values, Paul Ratchford’s mean-spirited and untoward commentary is out of sync with voters’ priorities.

As a result, Paul Ratchford’s contemptuous remarks could serve to strengthen David Eby’s chances for re-election, as voters in Vancouver-Point Grey seek a representative who reflects their commitment to tolerance, respect, and inclusivity.

The upcoming all-candidates meeting will offer a pivotal moment for these dynamics to play out in real time, potentially sealing the fate of Mr. Ratchford’s candidacy.

#BCPoli | Writ Drops on Saturday, September 21st | A 28-Day British Columbia Election Campaign Follows

BC Election 2024, BC Votes 2024, Essay, News, Politics, VanRamblings, Weblogs, , , , , ,

As the 2024 British Columbia provincial election draws near, the political landscape in the province is charged with intense debate and a host of key issues that will shape the campaign.

Set to officially begin when the Writ drops on September 21st, the 28-day campaign will see Premier David Eby’s B.C. New Democratic Party defend their hold on government against an ascending opposition. The chief challenger in 2024:  the resurgent B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, who, despite their limited war chest, aim to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the current government.

Key Issues in the 2024 British Columbia Election Campaign

  • Affordability and Housing: Housing remains the dominant issue in British Columbia politics, especially in urban centres like Vancouver and Victoria. The B.C. NDP under Premier David Eby has placed significant focus on addressing the housing crisis, with legislation proclaimed to increase the supply of affordable homes, streamline permitting processes, and combat speculation in the real estate market. David Eby has framed his party’s housing policy as one that balances affordability with responsible development, but the B.C. Conservatives have criticized the NDP’s efforts, accusing them of exacerbating the crisis by driving up costs with unnecessary regulations.

  • Rent Control and Tenant Rights: The B.C. NDP has enacted strict rent controls, limiting annual rent increases to match inflation rates. John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives have said if elected to government they would remove the cap on rent increases, arguing that rent controls hurt landlords and reduce the incentive to build new rental housing. This proposal is likely to be a key wedge issue, dividing renters, who are primarily concentrated in urban areas, from property owners and real estate investors.

  • SOGI 123 and LGBTQ+ Rights: Socially conservative elements within the B.C. Conservative Party, including leader John Rustad, have rallied against the SOGI 123 curriculum, which promotes inclusivity and understanding of sexual orientation and gender identity in BC schools. While the B.C. NDP and — earlier this year —  B.C. United supported SOGI 123 as a tool for fostering inclusivity, the B.C. Conservatives’ opposition appeals to a more socially conservative base, particularly in rural areas. Note should be made, B.C. Conservative leader Rustad has said that he would remove the programme from B.C.’s public school system, while also removing and banning books from the schools he believes “indoctrinate children”. The issue of the rights of LGBTQ children enrolled in B.C. schools — the programme brought in by the B.C. Liberal Christy Clark administration in 2015, as drafted by current ABC Vancouver City Councillor Lisa Dominato when she was in the employ of British Columbia’s Ministry of Education — has the potential to become a highly polarizing wedge issue, mobilizing both progressives and conservatives in different parts of the province.

  • Climate Change and Environmental Policy: British Columbia’s natural beauty and environmental stewardship are central to its identity, but climate policy has become a contentious issue. The B.C. NDP has taken a middle-of-the-road approach, supporting ambitious climate targets while also backing natural resource industries like LNG. The B.C. Conservatives, however, have been skeptical of aggressive climate policies, focusing instead on economic growth and job creation in resource sectors. This issue may pit environmentally conscious urban voters against rural communities reliant on resource extraction.

  • Public Transportation: Funding for public transportation, particularly in Metro Vancouver, will be a critical issue. The B.C. NDP supports expanding transit infrastructure, including SkyTrain expansions and increased bus service, to reduce congestion and emissions. However, the B.C. Conservatives have suggested prioritizing road infrastructure and reducing reliance on taxpayer-funded transit. This issue will likely divide urban voters who depend on public transportation from suburban and rural voters who prioritize road improvements.

  • Healthcare and Mental Health: The province’s healthcare system, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to be a significant issue. With long wait times for surgeries and difficulty accessing family doctors, healthcare is top of mind for many voters. The B.C. NDP has pledged more funding for healthcare and mental health services, while the B.C. Conservatives have focused on increasing private sector involvement to reduce wait times and improve access.

  • Taxes and Fiscal Responsibility: The B.C. NDP has faced criticism for its spending policies, with the B.C. Conservatives and other opponents accusing them of driving up provincial debt and over-taxing residents. The Conservatives have proposed cutting taxes and reducing government spending, appealing to fiscally conservative voters, particularly in the interior and northern regions of the province.

  • Crime and Public Safety: Rising crime rates, particularly in urban centres like Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo and Kelowna have made public safety a hot-button issue. The B.C. NDP has promised more funding for police and social services, whle working with the federal government to bring in tougher legislation that would keep repeat offenders and those accused of violent crimes in custody — while the B.C. Conservatives have taken a hardline approach, advocating for tougher sentencing and more resources for law enforcement, which is likely to realized only if Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party are elected to government next year. This issue will certainly be central to debates in urban and suburban ridings, where concerns about crime are highest.

  • Economic Development and Jobs: With economic uncertainty persisting post-pandemic, job creation and economic growth will be key topics. The B.C. NDP has highlighted its investments in green technology and infrastructure — which has proved successful while raising wages across the province. John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives have emphasized the importance of supporting traditional industries like forestry, mining, and oil and gas, which are crucial to many rural communities. A B.C. Conservative urban economic development plan has yet to be announced.

  • Education and School Funding: Public education will be a key issue, especially as concerns about classroom sizes, teacher shortages, and underfunding persist. The B.C. NDP has committed to increasing education spending, while the B.C. Conservatives have called for reforms to make the system more efficient, including increased support for alternative schooling options, which may resonate with their socially conservative base.

Key Ridings to Watch

Several ridings will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. Urban ridings in Metro Vancouver, such as Vancouver-Yaletown and Surrey-Newton, will be battlegrounds between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives, with housing and public safety as major issues. In the Fraser Valley and Interior, ridings like Chilliwack-Kent and Kamloops-North Thompson will see heated contests between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives, where affordability, resource development, and opposition to SOGI 123 may come to the forefront.

Additionally, suburban ridings in regions like Langley, Coquitlam, and Port Moody will be key, with issues such as transportation and crime dominating local discourse. The outcome in these swing areas could determine whether the B.C. NDP can maintain their majority or if the opposition makes significant inroads.

Voter Demographics and Turnout

Polling indicates that British Columbians aged 55 and older tend to support the B.C. NDP. This age group also tends to vote in greater numbers than younger voters, making their support crucial to the NDP’s success. If the B.C. NDP can effectively mobilize this demographic while appealing to younger voters concerned with housing affordability and climate change, they may secure another term in government. However, the B.C. Conservatives’ appeal to disaffected, older, rural voters who feel left behind by the NDP’s progressive agenda could create a potent challenge in key regions.

Wedge Issues and Potential “Bozo Eruptions”

The B.C. Conservatives, under John Rustad, face a significant risk of “bozo eruptions” during the campaign. With a number of candidates espousing socially conservative and conspiracy-laden views, the party could find itself embroiled in controversy throughout the campaign period, providing the B.C. NDP with ample ammunition to exploit. Rustad’s removal of the rent increase cap and his party’s opposition to the SOGI 123 programme are likely to emerge as key wedge issues, polarizing voters and drawing sharp contrasts between the parties. These controversies may help the B.C. NDP rally progressive voters and paint the Conservatives as out of touch with mainstream British Columbians.

The 2024 B.C. provincial election will be shaped by a range of pressing issues, from housing affordability and climate change to education and public safety.

With the B.C. NDP well-funded and and maintaining a slim lead in the polls, and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives seeking to channel discontent among socially conservative and rural voters, the stage is set for a fiercely contested election.

Key ridings in the Lower Mainland, the Interior, and northern B.C. will be critical, as will turnout among older voters.

As the campaign progresses, wedge issues like rent control, SOGI 123, and climate policy will likely define the battleground, with both major parties vying to secure their share of the vote.

#BCPoli | Former BC United MLAs & Candidates to Run as Independents

BC Election 2024, BC Votes 2024, Canada, canadian politics, Essay, News, Politics, , , , , ,

In the aftermath of the dissolution of B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberal Party, several incumbent B.C. United members of British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly, and former candidates, have this past week decided to run as Independents in the upcoming 2024 British Columbia provincial election.

This rise of Independents running for election — or, re-election — follows B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad and shutter the party, leaving centrist voters without a clear political home. The choices made by these MLAs and former candidates to run as Independents reveal a divergence of political philosophy from Kevin Falcon’s strategy, and reflect concerns about the lack of moderate representation in provincial politics.

The Independent Candidates: Incumbent Members of the Legislature

Several incumbent B.C. United MLAs have announced they will be running as Independents. Each brings their own rationale for breaking away from the party and running independently:

  • Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano): A staunch advocate for centrist policies, Kirkpatrick has expressed discomfort with B.C. United’s decision to merge its support with the B.C. Conservatives. Her primary concerns centre on the erosion of moderate voices, particularly regarding social policy issues like LGBTQ rights and environmental policies, which she sees as being disregarded by the decidedly more right-wing Conservative Party of British Columbia. MLA Karin Kirkpatrick aims to continue representing her constituents with hard work, and a centrist approach.

  • Coralee Oakes (Cariboo North): Ms. Oakes — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Community, Sport and Cultural Development — with a deep history of public service in her rural riding, has also similarly distanced herself from the merger. She has criticized the B.C. Conservatives alt-right stance, as she emphasizes her commitment to pragmatic, community-based governance that is neither aligned with the socially democratic B.C. NDP nor the far-too-right-wing for her, B.C. Conservatives. Oakes’s focus remains on rural issues such as forestry and infrastructure.
  • Mike Bernier (Peace River South): Mr. Bernier — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Education — has long advocated for resource development and economic growth, but believes that the endorsement of the B.C. Conservative Party by Kevin Falcon represents a step too far toward the political right. Running as an Independent allows Mr. Benier to maintain a balance between economic conservatism and moderate social policies that he believes reflect the values of his constituents.
  • Dan Davies (Peace River North): Mr. Davies has taken a similar stance, underscoring the importance of responsible fiscal policy without compromising on social issues like education and healthcare. His departure from B.C. United reflects his unease with the B.C. Conservatives extreme positions, particularly regarding climate change and Indigenous relations, which are key issues in his resource-rich riding.
  • Tom Shypitka (Kootenay-Rockies): Mr. Shypitka, known for his work in mining and natural resource sectors, has voiced concerns about how Kevin Falcon’s endorsement of the John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party could alienate voters who are interested in economic development, but who also value progressive stances on issues like environmental sustainability. By running as an Independent, Mr. Shypitka hopes to represent a balance that the B.C. Conservative Party does not embrace.

Former B.C. United Candidates Turning Independent in 2024

Several former B.C. United candidates are also taking the Independent route:

  • Jackie Lee (Richmond-Steveston) and Wendy Yuan (Richmond Centre).  A long-time advocate for immigrant communities and small businesses, Jackie Lee has voiced frustration over the lack of moderate representation, most particularly Conservative’s socially intolerant stances. Meanwhile, Wendy Yuan is a three decade resident in the Richmond Centre riding, who has expressed concern about escalating crime, open drug use, and a relentless surge in the cost of living.
  • Karen Long (Langley-Abbotsford), Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre) and Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland). All four former — well known in their communities — B.C. United candidates, now running as Independents, have expressed similar concerns regarding social policies and a desire to represent their ridings with a more balanced platform, reflecting frustration with the direction taken by John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party.

  • Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) and Greg McCune (Salmon Arm-Shuwap): These candidates, who have championed rural issues like farming and resource management, have expressed concerns about the polarizing impact of the B.C. Conservative Party on voters who may not agree with their stance on climate change or social issues, but still want robust support for local economies.
  • Meiling Chia (Burnaby South-Metrotown): Ms. Chia has positioned herself as a voice for urban issues like housing affordability and transit. She believes that neither the B.C. Conservatives nor the B.C. NDP offers real solutions for these problems, particularly in fast-growing urban areas where centrist solutions are needed

The Impact of Independent Candidates on B.C.’s Provincial Election

The decision by these former B.C. United MLAs and candidates to run as Independents will have significant implications for both the B.C. Conservative Party and the B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP) in the upcoming election.

  • Impact on B.C. Conservative Party: With B.C. United’s former base splintering, the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad are poised to gain support, especially in rural ridings where conservative values are popular. However, the presence of high-profile Independents like Bernier, Oakes, and Davies could split the vote in these regions, potentially reducing the chances of a B.C. Conservative victory. These Independents may appeal to voters who are fiscally conservative but uncomfortable with the B.C. Conservatives’ positions on social issues like LGBTQ rights and climate change.
  • Impact on B.C. NDP: The splintering of the centre-right vote could benefit the B.C. NDP, especially in urban ridings like Richmond-Steveston, Burnaby South-Metrotown, and Kelowna-Mission. Without a strong centrist party, the B.C. NDP may face less competition from a unified right, allowing them to consolidate support in key battlegrounds. However, if Independent candidates gain enough traction, they could draw away moderate voters who would otherwise have supported the NDP as a strategic choice.

Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse John Rustad and close B.C. United has left a significant void in British Columbia’s political landscape. VanRamblings has been told by folks in the know that come the 2028 British Columbia provincial election voters will see the revival of a vibrant new, well-funded B.C. Liberal party, offering a fiscally responsible, and socially progressive approach to B.C. politics.

In 2024, by running as Independents, the former B.C. United MLAs and candidates we write about today are aiming to fill that gap, providing voters with a centrist option they believe no longer exists within B.C.’s formal party system.

Their presence in the election is likely to reshape the dynamics in key ridings, creating new challenges for both the B.C. Conservatives and the B.C. NDP.

Whether this strategy will succeed remains to be seen, but it underscores the shifting political terrain in British Columbia as voters navigate between the increasingly polarized political options on offer in the British Columbia provincial election.