#BCPoli | A Puzzling, Undecided Election Result

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NDPer David Eby wins but loses, Green Sonia Furstenau loses, Con John Rustad sort of wins, for now

The 2024 British Columbia provincial election has set the stage for an extended period of uncertainty and ongoing and troubling political tension.


B.C. NDP supporter reacts as election night results come in (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

With the BC NDP securing 46 seats, pending a hand count of the ballots in at least two ridings where the vote was close , and the BC Conservatives close behind with 45, the situation is too close to call definitively until the final results, including mail-in ballots, are released on October 28, seven excruciating days from today.

The dynamics are further complicated by the two ridings where Green Party members were elected, and the Saturday night defeat of leader Sonia Furstenau.

David Eby’s path to once again becoming Premier and forming a government hinges on a confidence and supply agreement with the two elected Green MLAs, echoing the 2017 arrangement that brought the BC NDP to power. Eby’s focus on health care reform, particularly the establishment of community clinics, could be a key part of negotiations with the Greens, as Furstenau has made this a priority.

John Rustad and the BC Conservatives’ success, especially in rural areas, positions them as a formidable opposition. Rustad’s call for a new election highlights his confidence in gaining a majority, especially if he manages to unify some of the former BC United candidates who could have tipped the balance in his favour.

The inclusion of controversial conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers among the new BC Conservative MLAs introduces a wildcard element to the Legislature, potentially influencing policy debates and public discourse in unpredictable ways. BC’s political landscape is entering a period of heightened polarization, with urban-rural divides and deep ideological differences set to dominate in the coming months.

For Premier David Eby, the 2024 election marks both a personal victory and a daunting political challenge. His BC NDP narrowly held onto power in key urban ridings, particularly in Vancouver, where they won 11 of 12 seats. This urban dominance, especially in Vancouver, helped stave off what could have been a catastrophic defeat for the British Columbia New Democrats, given the rising popularity of the BC Conservatives. However, the BC NDP fell short of the majority needed to govern outright in the 93-seat legislature, placing Eby in a precarious position where his political future hinges on complex negotiations and compromises.

The Rise of the BC Conservatives and John Rustad’s Ambitions

While the BC NDP barely held their ground, the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, surged to unprecedented heights, winning 45 seats and dominating much of the rural and interior regions of the province. This represents a dramatic shift in BC’s political landscape, as the Conservatives capitalized on widespread discontent in regions such as the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan, and the North. These areas, which have traditionally felt underrepresented in provincial politics, rallied around Rustad’s message of rural empowerment, deregulation, and resistance to what many see as overreach by the urban-centric NDP.

Rustad’s success is particularly striking given the collapse of BC United, the former centre-right party that was once a dominant force in provincial politics.

Many former BC United voters shifted their support to the BC Conservatives, and Rustad has positioned himself as the new leader of the province’s right-wing movement. Rustad has been vocal in calling for a new election, believing that with just a few more seats, he could secure a majority government. Indeed, had Rustad allowed key figures like Lumby Mayor Kevin Acton and Josh Stein in Vancouver-Langara to run as BC Conservative candidates rather than Independents, he might very well have been in a position to become Premier, and govern British Columbia.

As BC citizens await the final results, the province stands at a political crossroads.


Juan de Fuca-Malahat: 23 votes separate NDPer Dana Lajeunesse & Conservative Marina Sapozhnikov.

Note should be made that, at present, there are 49,000 outstanding mail-in votes that are yet to be counted. The count of the mail-in ballots and the hand count in two ridings could very well alter the outcome of the British Columbia election.

  • The B.C. Conservatives were leading in Surrey-Guildford by a margin of 0.6 per cent late on election night. That party’s candidate, Honveer Singh Randhawa, was ahead of NDP incumbent Garry Begg by 102 votes;
  • The rookie candidates for both parties in Kelowna-Centre were separated by only 0.6 per cent. Conservative, realtor Kristina Loewen was leading the City Councillor, the NDP’s Loyal Woodridge by only 148 votes;
  • Meanwhile, the difference in the race in Courtenay-Comox, between NDP incumbent Ronna-Rae Leonard and the Conservatives’ Brennan Day was 0.7 per cent, with the Conservatives ahead by 232 votes, in that traditionally swing riding.

When the results of the hand count, and the inclusion of the mail-in ballots are announced on October 28th, we’ll know the true outcome of Election 2024.


Surrey City Centre. 96 votes separate the BC NDP’s Amna Shaw and the Conservatives’ Zeeshan Wahla.

The urban-rural divide has deepened, and the ideological gap between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives will lead to polarization and a contentious Legislature. In the coming months, the province’s political leaders will need to navigate these divisions carefully, as the future of British Columbia hangs in the balance.

How Do Other Political Observers Feel About Saturday’s Election Results?

Business in Vancouver Legislative reporter Rob Shaw: David Eby lost the election.

Despite running with all the advantages of government right up until the writ drop on September 21 — in the form of near-infinite money — resources and power, the Eby administration managed to squander the massive majority and record popularity left to it by predecessor John Horgan.

The NDP was brought to its knees by a BC Conservative party it argued was full of racist, homophobic, science-denying whackos, unfit to even run for public office, let alone hold it. Turns out, not everyone sees the world through the lens of moral superiority that New Democrats do.

Rob Shaw is must reading, with the best post-election political analysis you’ll read anywhere, as he tags Eby for the bare win, but actual loss.


John Rustad and wife Kim at the Conservative after-election event. Photo by Arlen Redekop /PNG.

PostMedia Legislative columnist Vaughn Palmer also blames Eby for the bare win, actual loss, and ponders whether Eby can hold on as leader of the BC NDP.

“Never lacking confidence in himself,” Palmer writes, “Eby vowed to govern until the scheduled election date and show results people could see, feel, touch and experience.

“How’s that working out?” One imagines more than a few New Democrats saying that as they saw their party once again thrown into the arms of the Greens to preserve its hold on power.

The second thing that some might question is Eby’s take-no-prisoners personal attacks on Rustad and the Conservatives.

Eby never seemed to allow that voters might have greater concerns — crime, the drug crisis, housing prices, overcrowded emergency rooms — than a seven-year-old social media posting, however appalling.

Had he toned down the moral superiority, he might have done better with voters who were wanting change.

Yet after presiding over a campaign dominated by vicious, personal attacks, on Saturday night he proclaimed himself “a Premier to bring us together, not drive us apart.’”

Can Eby, having done so badly, survive as leader of an NDP that has done in leaders that disappointed it in the past?”


BC Conservative Leader John Rustad poses for an election night photo. Ethan Cairns | Canadian Press.

Veteran Globe and Mail columnist Gary Mason sticks to the facts, and how David Eby must move forward to retain power in the Legislative assembly in Victoria.

“Barring a change from the current results, the NDP holds a one-seat advantage over the Conservatives,” writes Mason.

“To form a majority it needed 47 seats, so the party will need the help of the two B.C. Green Party MLAs to make a legislative agenda work. The NDP would almost assuredly have to sacrifice one MLA to the position of Speaker, which would make its hold on power even more tenuous.

It’s hard to imagine the Greens ever agreeing to work with Mr. Rustad to give his party a shot at governing, given the Conservatives’ views on climate change and environmental matters more generally.

Mr. Rustad is a proud climate denier. While that seems astonishing in this day and age, I’m certain his skepticism around the science of climate change and COVID vaccines helped boost his popularity. There are many people in B.C., especially in rural parts of the province, that cheered Mr. Rustad on around these issues.

There are others who aren’t likely thrilled over those stands, or even cringe when they think of possibly being governed by a man who is stuck in the dark ages when it comes to climate change, but were willing to set those feelings aside to vote for change.

There was definitely an anti-David Eby sentiment that was pervasive in this election.

Regardless of what happens in the near future, Mr. Eby will need to take a hard look at his progressive agenda over the past two years and ask: Was it too much, too fast?”

Press Progress editor Luke LeBrun writes a must-read article on the Far-Right BC Conservative Candidates who are now BC legislators.

For instance, Tara Armstrong (Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream), who claimed a medical doctor who was encouraging the public to get vaccinated was “bought and paid for by big pharma” and a “total fraud.”

Suffice to say, we live in troubling times.

Let all those who cast themselves as progressives hope that David Eby can get his act together, and the BC NDP — when the next election rolls around — runs a more energetic and inspiring campaign, rather than the lacklustre, lethargic, utterly enervating, tone deaf, and uninspiring campaign the party chose to run in 2024.

For those of you who can’t get enough of democracy, and the elections which decide the nature of governance, you will be heartened to know that the 2024 New Brunswick general election is being held today, Monday, October 21st, 2024, where 49 members will be elected to the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly. The election was called at the dissolution of the 60th Assembly, September 19, 2024.

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick (PC) government — which has proved to be hardly that, progressive we mean — led by Premier Blaine Higgs since 2018, is seeking a third consecutive term in office.

Higgs’ government has been mired in controversy over the past couple of years, with one high profile Minister after enough resigning from Higgs’ Cabinet in disgust, arising from Higgs’ intolerant decision to jettison New Brunswick’s version of the SOGI 123 programme that, you know, actually treats gender variant / LGBTQ+ children as if they matter — looks to be headed for defeat tonight.

Even if BC voters don’t have their heads screwed on straight — Higgs = Rustad — at least New Brunswickers of conscience do. Yay, is all we can say.

The PCs’ primary opponent is the New Brunswick Liberal Association led by Susan Holt, who is looking tonight to become the province’s 61st Premier.

VanRamblings will take a much needed break, through until late on October 28th.

#BCPoli | A Re-Elected David Eby and a BC NDP Majority Government

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The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 2863 citizens in every riding across the province — online, on the phone and in focus groups — a statistically valid sampling of a representative group of voters in each riding / region of the province, and predicts a majority NDP government will be elected on October 19.

Come 9pm this upcoming Saturday night — October 19th, 2024 — incorporating an up-to-date riding by riding analysis, and a representative cross-sampling of the twenty most reliable polling companies which have weighed in and reported out on the 2024 British Columbia election, VanRamblings has come to believe the good citizens of British Columbia will elect David Eby to a full term of office, as our province’s duly-elected Premier-designate, as the British Columbia New Democratic Party is set to enjoy majority government through the autumn of 2028, with a good prospect of being re-elected to office again that year.


The Honourable Thomas R. Berger, leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party in 1969.

For a good long while, VanRamblings believed that the BC NDP’s 2024 campaign for office bore a distinct relation to Tom Berger’s failed and far too “intellectual”, professorial and “coldly calculating” NDP campaign for office, in 1969.

VanRamblings no longer believes that to be the case.

Over the course of the past 10 days — in the post-debate period — the conditions of the 2024 BC NDP campaign have been radically reset, as a warmer David Eby has emerged on the campaign trail, no longer providing deadly boring lectur-y and utterly enervating policy pronouncements devoid of humanity.

Instead what British Columbians have seen in televised press conferences held in, for example, Courtenay-Comox, Campbell River and Surrey, is a David Eby who radiates warmth, the David Eby many of us know so well — the David Eby who consistently polled at a 53% approval rating for the past two years, as Canada’s most popular Premier — once again emerging on B.C.’s political stage, humble and comfortable in his skin — not to mention, affable and engaging — while providing the information British Columbians need to know before they cast their ballot.

VanRamblings advised B.C. NDP leader David Eby to be more aggressive on the campaign trail. David Eby, wisely, ignored VanRamblings’ advice, instead saying to himself, “Well, if I’m going to lose this campaign, I’m going to lose it being me, not as some automaton the campaign created.” David Eby has, as we expected would be the case, taken charge of his campaign for re-election over the course of the past ten days, his waggish sense of humour and his love of the province and all of its citizens front and centre in a rejuvenated and re-energized B.C. NDP campaign.


BC NDP leader Glen Clark emerges victorious and Premier-designate in 1996’s British Columbia election

Then we got to thinking, “If the correlation between the failed 1969 BC NDP campaign and the 2024 BC NDP campaign for office doesn’t hold water, what about the 1996 election, when Glen Clark became Premier, in spite of the fact that Gordon Campbell’s insurgent B.C. Liberal party garnered 43% of the popular vote to Mr. Clark’s 39% of the vote, yet due to ‘voter efficiency,’  the British Columbia New Democratic Party would form and hold government from 1996 through 2001?”

The BC NDP in 2024 have consistently polled five points ahead of the BC Conservatives. What if a situation occurred in 2024 that, although the BC NDP is polling ahead of the BC Conservatives, on a riding-by-riding basis and in the targeted riding campaign BC Conservative co-campaign manager, Dimitri  Pantazopoulos has run, BC Conservatives pull ahead on the seat count on election night to form government, despite winning fewer votes than their BC NDP rival?

Nah, we concluded. Too many differences between the 1996 and 2024 campaigns.

The upstart BC Conservatives are running a seat-of-their-pants election, devoid of a GOTV (Get Out the Vote) electoral machine necessary to win government, with much less money, many more untried candidates, and in a campaign that is rife with … see below as to what we believe to be a more relevant campaign correlation that may well inform the outcome of the 2024 British Columbia election.

On March 26th of this year, VanRamblings published a prescient column titled, Bozo Eruptions Disrupt Election Campaign, where we tracked then Alberta Wildrose party leader Danielle Smith’s failed bid for office.

See if you don’t think that there’s a correlation between Danielle Smith’s failed 2012 campaign for office, and the BC Conservative’s calamitous 2024 campaign.

As Stuart Thompson wrote, at the time, in The National Post …

It is a surefire rule of politics that at any given moment, somewhere in Canada a bozo is about to erupt.

Just as a political campaign is looking to flip the script, or turn the corner, or recapture the narrative, some bozo will ruin it for them, prompting damage control, tearful apologies, or, in the most severe cases, a resignation.

The bozos simply can’t stop themselves from erupting.

Conservative strategist Tom Flanagan, who ran Smith’s 2012 campaign, oversaw one of the most memorable stretches of bozo eruptions in Canadian political history: Smith wanted a big tent party, and open and unvetted candidate nominations.

Two days after the 2012 election was called, a Wildrose candidate’s year-old blog post was unearthed declaring that all gays were destined for a “lake of fire”. Smith refused to rebuke her candidate, saying the party “accepts a wide range of views.” And the hits just kept on comin’ for the Wildrose campaign, as day after day after day, a new candidate bozo eruption garnered front page coverage, and the lead story status on the evening news.

Danielle Smith’s dreams of becoming the Wildrose Premier were dashed, the party 20 points behind their polling on Election Day.

Danielle Smith’s failure to rebuke a candidate. Kind of sounds like BC Conservative Party leader John Rustad, who has consistently refused to censure any racist, intolerant, misogynist and homophobic utterance by any of his candidates.

What does the above have to do with British Columbia’s October 19th election?

Everything.

From the day after the Leaders’ Debate through until today, the BC Conservative campaign has been dogged by the shocking controversy surrounding their Surrey South candidate, Brent Chapman, such that the entire focus of leader John Rustad’s campaign for office has not been on the issues he’s raised at the daily press conferences he has held over the past week. Talk about being off message.


Brent Chapman, the B.C. Conservative Party’s Surrey South candidate, has said that what happened at residential schools is a “massive fraud”, called for a “boycott” of Air Canada to stop airlifts of Syrian refugees, questioned high profile mass shootings such as Sandy Hook elementary school where 20 children were murdered, while denying the white nationalist terrorist attack on a Québec City mosque.

Think of Rustad’s BC Ferries press conference, which got buried in an avalanche of questions put to the leader about whether Brent Chapman would be allowed to continue as a candidate for the BC Conservative Party in the riding of Surrey South.

The entire focus of reporter questions related to the ongoing, disastrous Brent Chapman fiasco, with no questions whatsoever on the BC Conservative plan for BC Ferries, or on subsequent days on the BC Conservative issue of the day, as the BC Conservative campaign was consistently held off message.

Can you say, devastating, calamitous, detrimental, hapless and noxious?

Chapman also shared a graphic posted by a far-right meme account.

The graphic features images of two handguns and the silhouettes of two heads.

“To those liberals who said they would kill themselves if Trump were elected,” the graphic states. “Don’t fuck this up too.”

The graphic suggests “liberals” should aim the gun at the centre of their brain rather than at their chin, an apparent reference to how best to commit suicide.

The most damning Chapman post — and destructive to the BC Conservative campaign — occurred surrounding the resurfacing of past statements demonizing Muslims and Palestinians, accusing them of “inbreeding.”

Why destructive to the BC Conservative campaign? Well, just see above.

Also, because 43% of the voters in the Surrey-Cloverdale riding where former BC United MLA, Elenore Sturko, who joined the BC Conservatives in June — who, only two weeks ago was polling at 56% in the riding, as Brent Chapman’s extremist anti-Muslim rants came to light has seen her potential to win the riding evaporate, as NDP incumbent Mike Starchuk, with the full support of the 43% Muslim electorate, is now set to win the riding Saturday night, and re-election to the BC Legislature.


Keith Baldrey, veteran Global BC Legislative reporter

On Mike Smyth’s CKNW talk show, Global BC reporter Keith Baldrey stated that Elenore Sturko was fully aware of Brent Chapman’s extreme views before she decided to run alongside him, as Ms. Sturko described Chapman as “an extremist” and a “QAnon conspiracy theorist” shortly before she defected.

“A week before Sturko made her jump, her announcement that she’s going to join the BC Conservatives, I ran into her in the Legislature library. And in my Facebook feed was suddenly a video from Brent Chapman and it was sort of about his candidacy. And I didn’t know him, I didn’t know he was married to (federal Conservative MP) Kerry-Lynne Findlay … I said to Sturko, “Oh, so you’re running against an actor?” And she says, “Oh, this guy, he’s a…” and she called him “an extremist,” said he was a ‘QAnon conspiracy theorist, that he’s crazy, you know.’ And at that point, she was still a member of BC United.” (CKNW, Oct 10)

All of the unsettling and disturbing news that has emanated from the BC Conservative campaign, following a dreadful — what CHEK-TV reporter Rob Shaw called a cadaver-like — Leaders’ Debate performance by John Rustad, giving the “win” to David Eby at 48%, with only 32% support for John Rustad, has caused the BC Conservative campaign not only to stall, as the party continues to lose momentum and more and more voter support with each passing day, but to recede, or perhaps even collapse, making a BC Conservative win on Saturday, at best unlikely.

As occurred in 2012 during that year’s Alberta election, come Election Day when Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party lost 16 percentage points in support due to the day after day, drip by drip revelations of racism, intolerance and the hate espoused by many of her candidates, VanRamblings believes, come Saturday, when the vast majority of British Columbians will cast their ballot at the polls, British Columbians of conscience will make the decision to cast their ballot for the principled candidate for Premier, David Eby, and a British Columbia New Democratic Party where you have heard nary a whisper of intolerance, because as British Columbians we realize when we enter our local polling station, the only reasonable political party to vote for to form government will be the British Columbia New Democratic Party.

You’ll want to watch / listen to what former BC NDP Premier Glen Clark has to say about the 2024 British Columbia provincial election. If you don’t see the Hotel Pacifico podcast YouTube video above, you can listen to it here or here or here.

#BCPoli | VanRamblings Endorses David Eby and a Majority NDP Government

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David Eby and his family, baby Gwen, son Ezra, 10, daughter Iva, 5, and David’s wife, Dr. Cailey Lynch

David Eby stands out as a visionary, a once in a generation political leader who is committed to justice, equity, and the well-being of all British Columbians.

As the Premier of British Columbia, David Eby has demonstrated his exceptional skills as a politician, and his unwavering dedication to meaningful social change.

David Eby’s leadership embodies a rare combination of compassion, authenticity, a deep understanding of how government functions and how best to bring about change for the better that serves the interests of all B.C. citizens — young people just starting their lives, vulnerable populations in every community, middle class and those working to join the middle class working people setting a path to establish themselves in the economy, those British Columbians who have already established themselves as the core element of British Columbia’s population that are thriving in our robust economy, members of our mature population and senior citizens in retirement or just about to embark on retirement — and all ethnic and cultural groups who comprise the mosaic of British Columbia’s diverse population.

David Eby’s bold policy vision seeks to address the province’s most pressing issues — health care, the provision of housing to serve the interests of all British Columbians no matter their economic circumstance, crime and public safety — with a well-thought-out action plan to ensure his government’s success.

  • Health care. David Eby has successfully worked with a sometimes intransigent and hide bound federal government to streamline the process to allow doctors and nurses to enter Canada, become accredited and begin their practice in British Columbia. In 2023, David Eby’s government hired 700 new doctors and 1500 new nurses, and will do so again this year and next year — for a total of 2100 new doctors and 4500 new nurses arriving from abroad over a three year period into British Columbia, unprecedented any where else in Canada, many of Canada’s new physicians and nurses arriving from Great Britain, these health care professionals leaving a British health care system in crisis after 15 years of Conservative government. In addition, British Columbia graduates 1500 new registered nurses and 300 new doctors from British Columbia post secondary institutions each year, a figure set to expand;

  • Housing for all. 100,000 new housing co-operative units to be built across the province over the next 10 years, on Crown land, on a 99-year leasehold basis, collective home ownership for 250,000 British Columbians; 25,000 units of supportive housing to be constructed and open by 2030 to house British Columbia’s unhoused and most vulnerable citizens, too many of them currently living in rundown, rat-infested SROs; 25,000 new homes for those getting into the market, 40% of the cost of the new homes borne by government on a 25-year cost recovery basis; the B.C. Builds programme, which will see the construction of 100,000 units of market housing, many of those transit-oriented new homes in Metro Vancouver built around Skytrain stations; and 50,000 units of housing as homes for our burgeoning seniors population;
  • British Columbia Attorney General Niki Sharma and Premier David Eby have over the past two years embarked on a mission to ensure the revolving door system of justice — or injustice, as most British Columbians see it — comes to an end, so that prolific offenders are jailed and off the streets for an indefinite period of time. In addition, Premier David Eby has committed to a system of involuntary care for those addicted, mentally unwell members of our community involved in crime, assault and mayhem as a lifestyle choice, who pose a danger to themselves and others, who will receive  treatment to allow them to become functioning members of our community.

The entire British Columbia New Democratic Party platform may be found by clicking or tapping on this link, and includes information on the B.C. NDP’s proposed transportation policy — which involves full government funding of public transportation, as a priority — expanding school meal programmes; strengthening consumer protection laws; cracking down on housing speculators and flippers; protecting you from the return of MSP premiums and bridge tolls; keeping rent caps in place for B.C.’s residents living in one of British Columbia’s 600,000 rental units; training more doctors;  making B.C. a clean-energy superpower; reducing carbon pollution; moving B.C. closer to our goal of protecting 30% of provincial lands by 2030;  and working with Indigenous peoples to strengthen communities, by taking action on Indigenous housing, education and supports for families and people.

The Future: A Choice for Progress or Regression

As British Columbia heads towards Election Day 2024 — this upcoming Saturday, October 19th — the stakes are high.

David Eby’s B.C. NDP is the only British Columbia political party offering a comprehensive, inclusive vision for our province’s future.

In contrast, the far-right BC Conservative Party, known for its climate change denial and socially regressive policies, not to mention racism and intolerance, threatens to undo much of the progress made under David Eby’s leadership — for instance, the 250,000 British Columbians who might look forward to a residence within one of the 100,000 units of co-op housing David Eby’s government will build, can forget about that as a future prospect, given John Rustad’s regressive Conservatives have no plan to provide any such housing, which they consider to be a radical communist conspiracy, one of the many conspiracies which inform their raison d’être.

The B.C. Conservative Party’s rejection of diversity, inclusivity, and climate science stands in stark contrast to David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats’ commitment to addressing real-world problems with innovative and compassionate solutions.


The October 13th Angus Reid poll of 2863 eligible B.C. voters. Want to make it happen? Vote NDP!

For British Columbians, the choice is clear: a vote for David Eby and the British Columbia New Democratic Party is a vote for progress, stability, and the continuation of policies that uplift all citizens, particularly the vulnerable and marginalized.

David Eby’s leadership represents a rare opportunity for the citizens of British Columbia — a chance to build a fairer, more equitable society while tackling the housing, health care, and climate challenges that will define our province’s future.