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#BCPoli | Election 2024 | Riding Breakdown Analysis | Vancouver Island

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In the 2024 British Columbia provincial election there are 93 ridings, six more than in the 2020 B.C. election, thanks to the redistribution recommendation of the Independent Electoral Commission which was charged to make voting in British Columbia fairer and more representative of the population of the province.

In British Columbia, there are 25 ridings in the Interior (the Okanagan and the Kootenays), 16 ridings across Vancouver Island, and 52 ridings across Metro Vancouver, reaching out into the Fraser Valley, and extending to Chilliwack.

In total, there are approximately 30 ridings that will tell the tale on Election Night,  October 19th. The outcome in these ridings will determine whether incumbent Premier David Eby’s New Democratic Party will hold onto government, or will be replaced by John Rustad’s insurgent Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Today, VanRamblings will focus on the Vancouver Island ridings in contention.

For the past couple of provincial elections Vancouver Island has proved to be a New Democratic Party fortress, with the party winning every riding on the Island. Following the October 19th election, we could witness a return to the days when a handful of Socred  / B.C. Liberal candidates held sway in five or six Vancouver Island ridings.

VanRamblings will publish three additional riding analysis columns covering the Interior and the North, a good portion of Metro Vancouver (focusing on Vancouver / Burnaby / Richmond / Delta / New Westminster / Surrey), and a final riding by riding analysis column covering the Tri-Cities, the north side of the Fraser River, Langley, and into the Fraser Valley through to Chilliwack.

Today, VanRamblings is focused on the Vancouver Island ridings that could allow David Eby to hold government, or thrust John Rustad into the Premier’s chair.

Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention in Election 2024

(Click on the underlined text for more information on the candidates running in the riding)

  • Victoria-Beacon Hill . Held by former B.C. NDP leader / Finance Minister Carole James from 2005 to 2020, upon resigning for health reasons, popular Victoria City Councillor Grace Lore ran in her stead in the 2020 B.C. election and won. During her first term, Ms. Lore’s four-year-old son was diagnosed with a brain tumour, which saw his mother cut back on some of her political activities in the riding, also gaining her family much sympathy and support. Upon her son’s return to health, Grace Lore was appointed as the Minister of Children and Family Development, a job she has excelled at, gaining much recognition for competence in the post, as well as for her caring and compassion. Ms. Lore’s challengers in 2024: Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, this will be a tight three-person race, with the very real possibility that there could be as little as half a percentage point in the vote separating the winner from the two politicos who fail to secure victory on the evening of October 19th.

  • Ladysmith-Oceanside . Adam Walker was elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election. For reasons that have never been revealed, Mr. Walker was removed from the NDP caucus on September 18, 2023, and since that date has sat as an Independent. Mr. Walker is running for office in 2024 as an Independent, with the endorsement of the Green Party, and the on the ground support of the party’s supporters. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a relative unknown. There’s also a second Independent candidate, Lehann Wallace, who is seeking the seat. The outcome in the riding is unpredictable. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.

  • Courtenay-Comox . Both Courtenay-Comox and North Island are in the federal riding of North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn — whose claim to fame was being removed from the B.C. Liberal party leadership race in 2021 for being too far right — is the federal Conservative Party candidate. In 2017, Ronna-Rae Leonard — who is running for re-election in 2024 — won Courtenay-Comox by a hair’s breadth. For the previous two decades, the riding had been a B.C. Liberal stronghold. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest that Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding come October 19th. Not for no reason was John Rustad front and centre in the riding on the opening day, and again on Sunday for a big rally, of Election 2024.

  • North Island. As far as North Island is concerned, the riding oughta be another pick up for the B.C. Conservatives, their candidate physician Anna Kindy, who was an organizer with the Trucker Convoy, who brought hundreds of her future (anti-vaxx) constituents to the B.C. Legislature to protest Health Minister Adrian Dix, and Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry’s edicts on how to fight COVID. In a change election, the pundits’ smart money is on Dr. Kindy to put the riding in the win column for the B.C. Conservatives — who will fire Dr. Henry as a first order of business should they form government.

  • Saanich North and the Islands. B.C. Liberal from 1991 to 2013. A bare NDP victory in 2013, with B.C. Green Party candidate, Adam Olsen — who is not running again in 2024 — securing victory in 2017 and 2020. With former Islands Trustee Rob Botterell running with the Greens, lawyer David Busch with the B.C. Conservatives and Sarah Riddell, elected to Central Saanich City Council in 2022, the B.C. NDP candidate — a riding that has voted Conservative federally for decades — it’s anyone’s guess as to the outcome of this tight three way race come election night.

The 11 remaining Vancouver Island ridings oughta vote solidly NDP come election day. C’mon back tomorrow for more riding analysis, as we move to the Interior and the North, after which we’ll analyze Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPOLI | Two Months Out from British Columbia’s 43rd Provincial Election

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Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.

According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s novice BC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.

VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.

Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.

Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.

According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.

Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.

VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.


John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.

Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North —  there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently the wildly popular BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the Stikine, and current Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship and Minister Responsible for Fisheries in David Eby’s BC NDP government hardly constitutes a winning seat up north for the BC Conservative Party, so John Rustad would likely be denied a sweep of the ridings outside of Metro Vancouver.

All is not lost for John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, though, which VanRamblings will write about later in the week.


Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.

Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.

We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.


Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit   September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s  43rd provincial election.

As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.

#BCElection | Who Will Form Government Post October 19? | Who Knows?

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L-r, Premier David Eby;  Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC

One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.

The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.

Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.

Unless …


William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier

The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.

Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.

Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.

As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.

We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Party incumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.

The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.

Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.

Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …

See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …

#BCPoli | The Speech from the Throne | Preparation for the October Election

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As of this writing, the British Columbian electorate are 241 days away from our province’s 43rd general election, set to take place on Saturday, October 19th.

Members of the British Columbia Legislature will sit for a total of 37 days in the spring session.


All 41 minutes and 2 seconds of Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin’s Speech from the Throne

The Throne Speech read in the Legislature by Lt. Gov Janet Austin on Tuesday kicks off a 10-week spring legislative session.

On Thursday, the government will unveil their budget, a compressed timeline in 2024 to accommodate a session that’s two weeks shorter than usual, in this the final session of the Legislature before the upcoming October provincial election.

In the Vancouver Sun, Legislative reporter Katie DeRosa writes, “The throne speech did give a hint that the 2024 budget is expected to be heavy on social spending “because leaving people to fend for themselves does not work. It did not work before. And it will not work now. It would mean deep cuts that weaken the services we rely on.”

In her speech — that was drafted in the Premier’s office —  the Lieutenant Governor began her address to British Columbians by emphasizing the actions government is taking, and will continue to take, to boost the number of middle-class homes available across the province.


On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a housing funding announcement with B.C. Premier David Eby, and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim to expand the province’s B.C. Builds programme, to construct between 8,000 & 10,000 units, on an expedited timeline, over the next 5 years.

Programmes like BC Builds were touted as a way the government is reportedly taking underused land, grant money and low-cost financing to lower the cost of construction. On Tuesday, the federal government announced it would invest $2 billion in additional financing into the programme, on top of the $2 billion announced by the province last week.

Lt. Gov Austin also highlighted expanding infrastructure the province is building to accompany the growing housing supply, including projects that are set to increase the region’s SkyTrain network by 27 per cent. Other priorities outlined in the Throne Speech included public health care, such as the addition of hundreds of new doctors and thousands of new nurses in the province in the last year.

Lt. Gov Austin also referred to the medical school being built at Simon Fraser University’s Surrey campus, which will be the first new medical school in Western Canada in more than 50 years. She also alluded to actions the government will continue to take to build on its ten-year cancer plan.

Relieving cost-of-living for British Columbians and leveraging B.C.’s natural resource sector were also mentioned as areas where action will be taken in the upcoming budget, set to be announced Thursday.  The Lt. Gov gave B.C. Hydro as an example, as it attempts to expand B.C.’s electrical grid, and the new E-One Moli facility in Maple Ridge where battery production will be ramping up in the province.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the E-One Moli manufacturing plant in Maple Ridge to announce a billion-dollar battery cell production plant that will produce up to 135 million batteries each year as part of Canada’s push toward clean technology. (Justine Boulin/CBC)

References were also made to the government’s plan to manage the droughts and wildfires continuing to plague B.C.’s warmer seasons.

“The climate crisis is here, we have seen it all around us these last few years,” Lt. Governor Janet Austin said.

One of the highlights of Tuesday’s kick-off to the upcoming Legislative session were the cries — welcomed by Lt. Gov. Austin, mid-speech — of Azalea, the young daughter of British Columbia’s Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness Minister, Bowinn Ma.

The response to the Throne Speech by the Opposition B.C. United Party …

Todd Stone, BC United Member of the Legislature for Kamloops-South Thompson; Official Opposition House Leader; and Shadow Minister for Jobs weighed in with …

John Rustad, B.C. Conservative Party leader (pictured above) had this to say …

“It’s been 16 years of the BC Liberals and now the seventh year of the NDP and we have a crisis in housing, we have an affordability crisis, we have a health crisis, we have a crisis in drugs and crime. The province quite frankly is in crisis.

It’s about time quite frankly that people became the focus of governments rather than what we are seeing, which is ideologies and other types of approaches that have failed every time they have been tried.”

B.C. Green Party leader / Cowichan Valley MLA Sonia Furstenau  had this to say …

All said, the David Eby government — despite the slew of ads from B.C. United that cross our dinnertime news programmes, and desultory commentary from the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. Greens — continue to sit in the catbird seat according to the polls, in what would appear to be a near wipe out vote for the opposition parties.