Tag Archives: kevin falcon

#BCPoli | Whither Now BC United Chief Kevin Falcon?

BC Election 2024, BC Politics, canadian politics, Politics, , , , , ,

Kevin Falcon currently sits in the British Columbia Legislature as BC United party Leader of the Loyal Opposition, to Premier David Eby’s BC NDP government.

As we wrote yesterday, Kevin Falcon’s BC United campaign for re-election is currently in the doldrums, with the very real prospect — if polls are to be believed — that BC United might very well be wiped off the political map this fall. In fact, VanRamblings has been told that Mr. Falcon is currently running (a distant) second to the BC Conservative’s Dallas Brodie in his home riding of Vancouver Quilchena.

This past Thursday, August 15th, federal Conservative / political observer / past Managing Editor at the Vancouver Sun / 2014 Vancouver NPA candidate for Mayor / former publisher-editor of Business in Vancouver, Kirk LaPointe, wrote a withering column titled,  Time for Kevin Falcon to Bid Adieu and Become B.C.’s Biden.

“Kevin Falcon is banking on having his Gordon Wilson moment — to ignite BC United as Wilson’s Leaders’ Debate performance did for the 1991 BC Liberals, rising above the onstage bickering of the NDP’s Mike Harcourt and the Social Credit’s Rita Johnson to deliver the famous line: ‘This reminds me of a couple of kids in a sandbox. I’m not interested in what happened 10 years ago; I’m interested in what happens tomorrow.’ Falcon should worry less about an upcoming debate and more about standing in the way of change.

Falcon’s party’s understandable bitterness about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ought to be set aside if the BC United team is serious about ending the NDP reign. If it wants to oust government, it ought to lend its experienced election machinery to the party in the best position to properly optimize it in the approaching campaign.

But it depends on the guy at the top, the guy who must regret dispatching Rustad from BC United on his birthday two years ago — to do what in his heart he must know by now is best for B.C.

If he is interested in change, Kevin Falcon needs a Biden moment.”

In point of fact, not only have several sitting members of BC United deserted the party (Lorne Doerkson, Elenore Sturko, Teresa Wat), the staff responsible for running BC United’s election campaign have also been leaving the party in droves.

Again, as we wrote yesterday, word from BC Conservative sources is that Kevin Falcon will, indeed, experience his Joe Biden moment, and resign as leader of BC United before month’s end, caving into pressure from all quarters, not to mention the pragmatism of acknowledging polling over the months that has BC United being obliterated at the polls this upcoming October.

As we wrote yesterday, we don’t believe this “speculation” / wishful thinking.

Why not?


BC United caucus members, l-r: Trevor Halford, Todd Stone, Shirley Bond, Mike Bernier, Coralee Oakes

For a start, the remaining MLAs in the BC United caucus running for re-election under the party’s banner — Todd Stone and Peter Milobar in Kamloops, Shirley Bond in Prince George, Coralee Oakes in Prince George Cariboo-North, Mike Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, Jackie Tegart in Fraser-Nicola, Ian Paton in Delta South, and Trevor Halford in Surrey-White Rock — would be left high and dry if BC United were to fold their tent (given that the BC Conservatives have already nominated candidates in each of those ridings), a Kevin Falcon decision to step down as leader would serve to create chaos in the lives of the loyal BC United caucus members who are running for re-election, effectively snuffing out their chance at another term in the BC Legislature, not to mention their political careers and aspirations.

In addition, let us not forget the remaining 87 members of the BC United team running for election under the BC United banner in ridings across our province.

BC United enters the campaign as the second most well-funded campaign, just behind the BC NDP, and miles ahead of the BC Conservatives. Anything can happen during the course of the upcoming 28-day British Columbia election campaign. Kevin Falcon and BC United could very well experience a Lazurus or Phoenix-like re-birth, arising from the dead to fight another day for their principles, as duly elected members in good standing, in the British Columbia Legislature.

VanRamblings will have more to say about Kevin Falcon — of a kindly and generous nature — in the days to come. To be quite honest, we are flummoxed that Kevin Falcon, once a celebrated member of Gordon Campbell’s B.C. Liberal caucus, a builder of the first order, a relatively non-partisan happy warrior in Campbell’s government, who was always prepared to work across the aisle, has fallen on such hard times politically. We’ll write about that grievous circumstance another day.


Bill Tieleman, a VanRamblings neighbour and friend, great chef and oenophile, and all around good guy

Note: VanRamblings’ friend, Bill Tieleman, an all around good guy, one of the most authentic and humane men, not to mention a well-informed and principled politico, and just darn good human being, which is to say, one of the best humans of our acquaintance, now or ever — informs us that in point of fact, the Writ will be dropped on September 21st, not September 14th, as we wrote earlier (we thought there’d be a 35-day election period … apparently not … woe is us … alas).

#BCPOLI | Two Months Out from British Columbia’s 43rd Provincial Election

BC Election 2024, BC Politics, BC Votes 2024, canadian politics, News, Politics, , , , ,

Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.

According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s novice BC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.

VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.

Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.

Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.

According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.

Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.

VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.


John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.

Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North —  there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently the wildly popular BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the Stikine, and current Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship and Minister Responsible for Fisheries in David Eby’s BC NDP government hardly constitutes a winning seat up north for the BC Conservative Party, so John Rustad would likely be denied a sweep of the ridings outside of Metro Vancouver.

All is not lost for John Rustad and the BC Conservative Party, though, which VanRamblings will write about later in the week.


Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.

Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.

We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.


Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit   September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s  43rd provincial election.

As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.

#BCElection | Who Will Form Government Post October 19? | Who Knows?

BC Election 2024, BC Politics, News, Politics, VanRamblings, , , , , , , , ,


L-r, Premier David Eby;  Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC

One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.

The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.

Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.

Unless …


William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier

The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.

Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.

Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.

As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.

We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Party incumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.

The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.

Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.

Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …

See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …

#BCPoli | BC Conservatives On the Rise, While BC NDP, B.C. United & Greens Fall?

BC Politics, Decision BC 2024, Politics, , , , ,

Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.

As published in the Vancouver Sun on March 18th ..

According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.

Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.

Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.

But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …

  • Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
  • Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservatives do not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
  • 93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.

As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.

Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper  or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.

No longer.

Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?

Hmmm.

We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.

In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.

More tomorrow.