L-r, Premier David Eby; Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC
One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.
The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.
Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.
Unless …
William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier
The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.
Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.
Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.
As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.
We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Partyincumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.
The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.
Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.
Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …
See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …
Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.
According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.
Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.
Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.
But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …
Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservativesdo not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.
As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.
Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.
No longer.
Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?
Hmmm.
We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.
In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.
This is my family’s last Family Day as a household of four, as we’re expecting a new addition later this year. We’re making the most of it: sleeping in past sunrise and enjoying a nice, long walk without a diaper bag. From my family to yours, happy Family Day! pic.twitter.com/m1OTKNgC2M
As of this writing, the British Columbian electorate are 241 days away from our province’s 43rd general election, set to take place on Saturday, October 19th.
Members of the British Columbia Legislature will sit for a total of 37 days in the spring session.
All 41 minutes and 2 seconds of Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin’s Speech from the Throne
The Throne Speech read in the Legislature by Lt. Gov Janet Austin on Tuesday kicks off a 10-week spring legislative session.
On Thursday, the government will unveil their budget, a compressed timeline in 2024 to accommodate a session that’s two weeks shorter than usual, in this the final session of the Legislature before the upcoming October provincial election.
In the Vancouver Sun, Legislative reporter Katie DeRosa writes, “The throne speech did give a hint that the 2024 budget is expected to be heavy on social spending “because leaving people to fend for themselves does not work. It did not work before. And it will not work now. It would mean deep cuts that weaken the services we rely on.”
In her speech — that was drafted in the Premier’s office — the Lieutenant Governor began her address to British Columbians by emphasizing the actions government is taking, and will continue to take, to boost the number of middle-class homes available across the province.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a housing funding announcement with B.C. Premier David Eby, and Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim to expand the province’s B.C. Builds programme, to construct between 8,000 & 10,000 units, on an expedited timeline, over the next 5 years.
Programmes likeBC Builds were touted as a way the government is reportedly taking underused land, grant money and low-cost financing to lower the cost of construction. On Tuesday, the federal government announced it would invest $2 billion in additional financing into the programme, on top of the $2 billion announced by the province last week.
Lt. Gov Austin also highlighted expanding infrastructure the province is building to accompany the growing housing supply, including projects that are set to increase the region’s SkyTrain network by 27 per cent. Other priorities outlined in the Throne Speech included public health care, such as the addition of hundreds of new doctors and thousands of new nurses in the province in the last year.
Lt. Gov Austin also referred to the medical school being built at Simon Fraser University’s Surrey campus, which will be the first new medical school in Western Canada in more than 50 years. She also alluded to actions the government will continue to take to build on its ten-year cancer plan.
Relieving cost-of-living for British Columbians and leveraging B.C.’s natural resource sector were also mentioned as areas where action will be taken in the upcoming budget, set to be announced Thursday. The Lt. Gov gave B.C. Hydro as an example, as it attempts to expand B.C.’s electrical grid, and the new E-One Moli facility in Maple Ridge where battery production will be ramping up in the province.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the E-One Moli manufacturing plant in Maple Ridge to announce a billion-dollar battery cell production plant that will produce up to 135 million batteries each year as part of Canada’s push toward clean technology. (Justine Boulin/CBC)
References were also made to the government’s plan to manage the droughts and wildfires continuing to plague B.C.’s warmer seasons.
“The climate crisis is here, we have seen it all around us these last few years,” Lt. Governor Janet Austin said.
One of the highlights of Tuesday’s kick-off to the upcoming Legislative session were the cries — welcomed by Lt. Gov. Austin, mid-speech — of Azalea, the young daughter of British Columbia’s Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness Minister, Bowinn Ma.
Todd Stone, BC United Member of the Legislature for Kamloops-South Thompson; Official Opposition House Leader; and Shadow Minister for Jobs weighed in with …
The NDP Throne Speech well articulates the affordability crisis, healthcare mess and dire public safety / mental health & addiction realities British Columbians are facing … after 7 years of NDP Gov’t … and it’s also breathtakingly devoid of NDP solutions to these challenges. https://t.co/eZ08LvmQB0
John Rustad, B.C. Conservative Party leader (pictured above) had this to say…
“It’s been 16 years of the BC Liberals and now the seventh year of the NDP and we have a crisis in housing, we have an affordability crisis, we have a health crisis, we have a crisis in drugs and crime. The province quite frankly is in crisis.
It’s about time quite frankly that people became the focus of governments rather than what we are seeing, which is ideologies and other types of approaches that have failed every time they have been tried.”
B.C. Green Party leader / Cowichan Valley MLA Sonia Furstenau had this to say…
All said, the David Eby government — despite the slew of ads from B.C. United that cross our dinnertime news programmes, and desultory commentary from the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. Greens — continue to sit in the catbird seat according to the polls, in what would appear to be a near wipe out vote for the opposition parties.
Mario Canseco’s Research Co poll released on January 31, 2024 places the BC NDP in first place
Premier David Eby’s second worst nightmare continues to unfold less than nine months before the 2024 British Columbia provincial election.
David Eby’s worst nightmare, of course, would be a repeat of the 2001 British Columbia election, when voters went to the polls, leaving only two seats from the NDP majority government that held power from 1991 through 2001. From 2001 through 2005, Joy McPhail & Jenny Kwan held the fort for B.C.’s New Democratic Party. Failure on that scale in 2024 would be unimaginably devastating.
In fact, there is a 2001 provincial election scenario that is, at present, unfolding in British Columbia, but it is a redux versionof 2001, where the B.C. New Democratic Party has gained the confidence and largesse of British Columbia voters — seeming to give David Eby, and the BC NDP, an overwhelming majority — and where the renamed name B.C. Liberal Party — now inaptly named, B.C. United — look to be wiped out as a political force in our province, as they seem set to retain a mere six seats in the Legislature, in a house where 93 Members of the Legislature will sit.
Below, we’ll get to why the above scenario is Premier Eby’s 2nd worst nightmare.
Sonia Furstenau, Green Party of British Columbia leader, changing ridings before the 2024 election
Thank you @GraceALore – it’s refreshing to receive a warm welcome and I agree – politics should be about debating issues and ideas, and focused on solutions that help us build a better province for the people we serve. I look forward to a respectful and constructive campaign. https://t.co/8zMUMopOaZ
On the last day of January 2024, Sonia Furstenau announced to the world that she is giving up on British Columbia politics, that she’s frustrated, fed up, worn out, is devastated that British Columbians have failed to support her tenure as leader of the Green Party of B.C., her integrity, her hard work and that of her Green Party colleague, Adam Olsen, and that a very centrist British Columbia electorate have thrown their support to a centrist British Columbia New Democratic Party under the leadership of David Eby, and cast her and her Green Party of British Columbia aside, and no longer want her in place to challenge a B.C. NDP government.
Did Sonia Furstenau voice the (fictional) concerns raised above, yesterday?
No. But she might as well have.
Beacon Hill Park, in Victoria
For, you see, Ms. Furstenau announced Wednesday that in the upcoming 2024 provincial election, rather than run again in the very safe Green Party supporting riding of Cowichan Valley, which she has held comfortably since 2016, instead Ms. Furstenau has chosen to devastate her Green Party supporters and the voting electorate in the Cowichan Valley, by announcing that come this autumn, she will run for office in the riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill — perhaps the safest NDP seat in the province — where she will challenge popular incumbent, Grace Lore, the current Minister of Children and Family Development in the David Eby government.
Note should be made that due to redistribution, Ms. Furstenau’s riding was divided in half, statistically giving the B.C. NDP a three-to-one advantage in the new ridings should she decide to run in either of the two new ridings. Pulling out of the political fray in the Cowichan Valley where she believes she cannot win, in favour of certain defeat in Victora-Beacon Hill, to VanRamblings seems to be a Hobson’s choice.
The above said, we wish Ms. Furstenau well in her political “retirement”, because most assuredly she will not win re-election come this Saturday, October 19th.
VanRamblings imagines after clearing her office she will take some time off, vacationing with her husband, perhaps returning in the spring to supply teach in her Cowichan Valley school district, where the administration will be over the moon to have her back in the fold, given the dire shortage of teachers in our province.
Vancouver Island University, entrance to the Cowichan campus administration office
Returning to teaching will also afford Ms. Furstenau to put in the time necessary to raise her pension to 80% of her annual average teachers’ salary of $90,000+ — whether she resumes her teaching career in the Cowichan Valley, or her “new home” in British Columbia’s capital city, where she would be closer to family.
The University of Victoria
Upon retirement at age 65, Ms. Furstenau will live in comfort financially, her home paid off, her teachers’ pension paying handsomely, supplemented by her Member of the Legislature / leader of the Green Party of BC provincial government pension. In addition, we also expect Vancouver Island University’s Cowichancampus, or should Ms. Furstenau remains in Victoria, the University of Victoria will want to bring her on staff as an instructor, to conduct an evening class or two.
If seeing his current 57-member strong New Democratic Party caucus reduced to two seats, as was the cataclysmic case in 2001, is the nightmare electoral scenario that David Eby fears most (an event unlikely to unfold), as we’ve written previously, securing 80 seats in the Legislature is certainly a nightmare electoral October 19th scenario that our Premier is hoping against hope will not unfold.
Why? As we’ve written previously, and will write again many times in the months to come: with 57 seats in the Legislature, including the Premier’s own Vancouver Point Grey riding seat, British Columbia’s beloved, soon-to-be-a-father for the third time (come June!), the Premier is perfectly content with 57 seats, a comfortable majority, just the right number of seats in the House to portion out Ministers, Parliamentary Secretary and House Speaker jobs, keep his caucus members busy, keeping them happy, as well, as this “extra work” affords each of the members of the NPD caucus additional salary to their $115,045.93 annual MLA compensation.
Much more than a 57-seat win, and the Premier faces undesired “trouble”, cuz there are no more additional, well-paying jobs for him to give out, leaving the “extra NDP MLAs” largely disenfranchised, and at loose ends with themselves.
Next thing you know, a rump group of B.C. Dippers will hive off from the provincial party to form their own — say, five member, environmentally-minded, opposed to LNG and fracking — B.C. political party, affording them the “extra monies” they heretofore had been denied. Politics, lemme tell ya, it ain’t for the faint of heart.
Kevin Falcon, leader of B.C. United, and decidedly on the right, B.C. Conservative leader, John Rustad
Politically in British Columbia, we seem to be living in a redux period.
In 1991, as “Premier” Rita Johnson — when disgraced Socred Premier Bill Vander Zalm resigned from office, the party chose Ms. Johnson as their leader, and Premier — championed the Social Credit party during that year’s provincial election, she not only lost government and 47 legislative seats, the Social Credit Party came in a distant third, the Social Credit Party finis / the Socreds dead, far from phoenix-like, after nearly 41 years in power, the party wiped out, and gone forever.
Once the cabal who run this province removed 1991’s Liberal leader, Gordon Wilson — who secured 17 seats for the B.C. Liberals, a revived B.C. Liberal party became the political standard-bearer for our province’s capitalist forces, an all-too-willing Gordon Campbell made leader, who in 2001 went on to become Premier.
Global BC’s Richard Zussman reports on B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon + the Greens’ Sonia Furstenau
Kevin Falcon, once a well-thought-of activist Minister in the Gordon Campbell government, will soon become the undertaker for the B.C. Liberal renamed B.C United Party, as this capitalist, free market party — whatever it’s name — will soon be but a fading memory on the political landscape of British Columbia provincial politics.
British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly
As for B.C. Conservative Party leader, John Rustad, as the far right gains power across the globe — in Canada, that would be federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre “The Destroyer” Poilievre (“Canada is broken. It’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault,”), as well as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs — steps gingerly into the political vacuum left by a mortally wounded B.C. United Party, Rustad would seem to be on track to become, perhaps, the Leader of Her Majesty’s official loyal Opposition, in the post election, post October next session of the British Columbia Legislature.
