David Eby: chastened, humbled, reflective, willing to listen, refocusing his government’s priorities.
Barely scraping by with the slimmest of majority governments, Premier David Eby has emerged from the bruising 2024 British Columbia election campaign a humbled and chastened man, a provincial leader prepared to change his government’s legislative priorities, to listen more, to be more collaborative in his approach, and to refocus on the priorities identified by the British Columbia electorate.
In the two years since assuming power in the Premier’s office, David Eby proved to be the provincial equivalent of the energizer bunny, going off in 10,000 different directions at once, unfocused, taking on far too much with little prospect of changing anything at all, Eby’s imperious, autocratic, top down approach alienating broad swaths of British Columbia’s citizenry, at odds with municipal administrations across the province, all the while racking up debt and ill will, and a cry to please just slow the merry-go-round down a bit, the change David Eby sought to achieve dizzying and disquietening in the breadth and depth of its unachievable scope.
British Columbia’s 31st (BC NDP) Premier, Glen Clark, pictured above in 2024, at 66 years of age.
During the course of the election, broadcaster Mo Amir conducted an extensive, thoughtful and engaging interview on his This is Vancolour podcast with British Columbia’s 31st Premier, the original B.C. political energizer bunny, the British Columbia New Democrat’s Glen Clark, now a senior citizen at the ripe old age of 66 (soon to be 67, given that his birthday is coming up on November 22nd).
This is the advice that the older, and now wiser, Mr. Clark has for David Eby …
“David tried to accomplish too much in his two-year term as Premier, with little in the way of definable outcomes that people could see and feel. In the coming term, my advice to the Premier would be to refocus his government on four or five achievable goals: fulfill the government’s promise of $10-a-day child care; when it comes to health care, make a firm commitment that by 2026 the Interior region of the province will no longer experience emergency room closures, all while committing to reducing wait times and ensuring every B.C. citizen has a family physician.
Focus his government’s priority on achieving public safety, while ensuring that the indigent population are well-housed; and build social housing, high quality co-operative housing constructed on Crown land, a commitment to opening the doors on 10,000 units of housing for families, by 2027, in every region across our province.”
In the 2017 British Columbia election campaign, the BC NDP committed to building 100,000 units of affordable housing by 2025. In point of fact, the government has achieved only 20% of that goal. British Columbia’s NDP government has got to stop making promises that they have no real and palpable intention of fulfilling.
Throughout the course of the recent 28-day election campaign, David Eby championed his government’s near fulfilled commitment to achieving $10-a-day child care for families who live in every region across B.C., when in point of fact his government is a very long way from achieving that goal. Most irritating to VanRamblings was the Premier’s championing of how his government had cut child care fees in half during their term of government (note: not $10-a-day child care), when David Eby’s government had no role to play in halving child care fees: doing so was entirely a federally funded initiative of the Trudeau government.
The key to a successful, full-term David Eby-led British Columbia New Democratic Party government is, as we write above, collaboration, consultation, respect for the municipal partners in the change movement to build the much needed housing the public has demanded, an ability to listen and to act, and be seen to act, on the input that will be provided by the stakeholders in the movement for change (read: citizens), who desire change as much as David Eby wants change, but change reflected in the wants and needs of the populace, rather than the autocratic imposition of a “I know best what you need” British Columbia provincial government.
Now for the good news — good news, that is, if you’re a fan of Premier David Eby (as is the case with VanRamblings) and the B.C. New Democratic Party government he leads with vision, and an unwavering commitment to the public good.
If Premier Eby can hold onto government for the next three years — for which the prospects are good, given that negotiations between Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau and David Eby, to work collaboratively, are moving ahead well for both concerned parties — a number of salutary events will unfold for the BC NDP …
The Broadway Millennium Line Skytrain extension to Arbutus Street will open in late 2027, along with the 13-storey social housing seniors facility at 7th and Arbutus. Governments that get things done always wears well with the public;
The new Pattullo Bridge, connecting New Westminster to Surrey, will also open, as yet another feather in the cap of the B.C. New Democratic Party government;
And, best of all, a far-right, chaos driven, extremely unpopular Pierre Poilevre government will have been in power for two years come late 2027, which will have a number of salutary impacts: the re-birth of a renewed B.C. Liberal Party, a very unpopular B.C. Conservative opposition following on the coattails of a hated Pierre Poilievre, a Trumpian nightmare of a Prime Minister — you wonder why Nova Scotia Conservative Premier Tim Houston is going to the polls early, as will soon be the case with Ontario Conservative Premier, Doug Ford … cuz they know, even if you don’t, that Pierre Poilievre will be held in such disrepute that their respective chances for re-election would be fatally wounded with Poilievre in power. And what does this have to do with the cost of tea in China, and the prospects of David Eby being re-elected to a second full term, with a much increased majority, in 2027-2028? An upstart B.C. Liberal Party garnering 23% of the vote, a B.C. Conservative Party also registering at 23% in the polls, and our beloved David Eby-led British Columbia New Democratic Party government coming up the middle in 2027-2028, in a B.C. provincial election that will give them a comfortable majority in the British Columbia legislature.
And, yes, we’re aware that we’re driving you nuts with our criticism of the BC NDP, while touting their majority government re-election, three or four years hence.
All part of the invaluable service we provide to you, most days, at VanRamblings!
Premier David Eby rallies the troops | Yet another misstep in a failing 2024 BC NDP campaign for office
Premier David Eby and the British Columbia New Democratic Party are on track to lose the 2024 provincial election.
Whether the result on Election Night, October 19th, will allow the BC NDP the opportunity to save face by retaining 39 to 42 seats, or whether British Columbia’s hapless New Democrats will be wiped out on October 19th — leaving the party with a rump caucus of 25 electeds — is a story that can only be told 18 days from now.
John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of B.C., and the next Premier of British Columbia
In Part 1 of a 3 part series VanRamblings will publish this week on the sorry fate of one of British Columbia’s two main legacy political parties — which for the past 7 years has held government in our province — today VanRamblings will set about to explore the 15 or so ridings across the province the B.C. New Democrats are guaranteed to lose — consigning the party to an ignominious defeat — and provincial ridings that are currently on the bubble, leaning John Rustad Conservative.
We’re going to skip around a bit, but because losses for the B.C. NDP on Vancouver Island, long a New Democratic Party stronghold, will prove so devastating to the governing party — but not for much longer — let’s start on the Island, shall we?
You can reference detail about the devastation the B.C. New Democrats are about to experience of Vancouver Island, by clicking/tapping on this VanRamblings post .
To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the North Island candidates, click or tap here.
B.C. New Democrat Michele Babchuk, who won the seat in a John Horgan pandemic sweep in November 2020, will lose to physician Dr. Anna Kindy, who lost her ability to practice when Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry ordered that health care workers who had not been vaccinated for COVID-19 would not be allowed to practice medicine in the province. Dr. Kindy — a potential Minister of Health in a John Horgan government — led a delegation of 200 North Island residents to raucously protest outside B.C. Legislature, expressing their disdain for the “health” edicts of the B.C. New Democratic government. In 2024, it’s payback time.
Courtenay-Comox. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding over incumbent Ronna-Rae Leonard — who only won her seat by the slimmest of margins, in a traditional right-of-centre seat — on October 19th. Not for no reason has John Rustad been front and centre in the riding multiple times since the election kick off.
Victoria-Beacon Hill. Held by the B.C. NDP since 2005, incumbent Grace Lore, currently the Minister of Children and Family Development, is in a tight three-way race with Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, there’s a very real possibility / probability Mr. Thielmann could prove victorious on Election Night.
Ladysmith-Oceanside. Adam Walker, elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election, and booted from the party for undisclosed reasons in September 2023, is running in 2024 as an Independent, with the support of the Green Party. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a small business owner, with a degree in Political Science and Criminology. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win, allowing a probable victory for Mr. Fee. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.
To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Nanaimo-Lantzville candidates, click or tap here.
Crime and public safety are the issues that will see former BC NDP MLA for Chilliwack — in 2024, a celebrated law and order B.C.Conservative candidate — Gwen O’Mahony, win this riding in a walk on Election Night. Nanaimo-Gabriola remains safe for B.C. NDP incumbent and Minister Social Development and Poverty Reduction, Sheila Malcolmson — a bit of good news for Dippers.
That’s a possible / probable loss of five seats for New Democrats on Vancouver Island, maybe more — all but certain losses in at least three of those ridings.
Enough with the foofaraw. Time to get down to brass tacks.
The B.C. NDP are rock solid to lose six seats, from Cloverdale to Chilliwack.
Langley. A two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.
To wit: High profile B.C. Conservative Elenore Sturko will deny the B.C. NDP’s Mike Starchuk a second term representing Surrey-Cloverdale.
Langley. As we write above, a two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.
1.B.C. NDP incumbent Megan Dykeman will lose her Langley-Walnut Grove seat to B.C. Conservative candidate Misty Van Popta, a Municipal Councillor in the Township of Langley.
2.Incumbent B.C. New Democrat Andrew Mercier, Minister of State for Workforce Development, will be defeated on Election NIght by the B.C. Conservative candidate Jody Toor, who holds a double PhD in Doctor of Integrative Medicine and Doctor of Humanitarian Services with the Board Of Integrative Medicine.
The Fraser Valley is traditionally a very conservative region of our province. Such will prove to be the case in 2024, when B.C. NDP incumbent Pam Alexis, Minister of Agriculture and Food prior to dissolution of the Legislature, will be trounced by the B.C. Conservative’s Reann Gasper, a Fraser Valley real estate agent.
And, finally, while we’re taking a look at ridings along the south arm of the Fraser River: Chilliwack, where the B.C. NDP will lose both seats, with B.C. New Democrat incumbent Dan Coulter going down to defeat to B.C. Conservative candidate Heather Maahs, a well-respected Chilliwack School Trustee since 2008.
In the riding of Chilliwack-Cultus lake, the B.C. NDP’s Kelly Paddon is also on her way out, to be replaced by high profile, Indigenous B.C. Conservative candidate Á’a:líya (A’aliya) Warbus, who was born and raised in Stó:lō Territory, with deep family roots in politics and activism, as the daughter of former Lieutenant Governor of British Columbia Steven Lewis Point.
At least three probable losses on Vancouver Island, and six guaranteed losses for the B.C. NDP along the south arm of the Fraser River. At dissolution, the B.C. New Democrats held 55 seats in the Legislature. The loss of 9 seats would leave the B.C. NDP with 46 seats, one shy of a majority in the 93-seat B.C. Legislature.
And, heck, we’ve only just begun our exploration of ridings the B.C. NDP will lose.
Susie Chant, the one-term B.C. NDP incumbent in the North Vancouver-Seymour riding will lose her seat to B.C. ConservativeSam Chandola, an award-winning technology entrepreneur, come Election Night.
Janet Routledge will lose her Burnaby North seat to Michael Wu, a small business owner, and an Auxiliary Member with the RCMP who works with the Combined Forces Special Enforcement Unit. Mr. Wu speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese.
Let’s skip over to Vernon-Lumby.
Harwinder Sandu, who most unexpectedly won the Okanagan riding of Vernon-Lumby in 2020, in 2024 will be soundly defeated by the B.C. Conservative candidate in the riding, Dennis Giesbrecht, who brings to his run for office a lifetime of invaluable experience in the energy, forestry and ship building industries.
Thus far we’re up to a 12-seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats — and, heck, we’ve not written about the two additional Surrey seats that will be won by B.C. Conservatives on Election Night, and all of the seats along the north arm of the Fraser River, from the five Tri-Cities seats, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge East, all of which seats are on the bubble, leaning heavily in the direction of electing a swath of B.C. Conservative candidates to the B.C. Legislature.
In a column we wrote last week covering most of the Lower Mainland ridings, we wrote about the three ridings in Richmond currently held by the B.C. NDP, at least two of which will swing to the B.C. Conservatives on Election Night.
Prospects for a majority victory for David Eby’s New Democrats in the 2024 British Columbia provincial election look dire, indeed.
A generous count thus far suggests a 17-seat loss for the incumbent government, leaving them with 38 seats in the British Columbia Legislature.
Not all is lost: David Eby’s New Democrats will pick up three seats they’ve not held before, come Election Night: Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies.
Here’s what our sources in the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives are telling VanRamblings: at this point in time, given how the B.C. NDP campaign has fared up until today, and the momentum John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives have experienced the first week of the campaign, 18 days out from Election Day, VanRamblings’ sources in both mainstream parties tell us that the B.C. New Democrats will likely hold on to only 41 seats, for a 14-seat loss on Election Night.
There are an additional 16 seats that are on the bubble, we are told, that could go either way. VanRamblings’ sources in both political parties believe that 32 seats represents the floor for the New Democrats. Anything less than 35 seats for the B.C. NDP on Election Night, voters across B.C. can expect David Eby to tender his resignation as B.C. NDP leader, when he gives his concession speech.
VanRamblings’ sources in both parties believe the likely outcome on Election Night will allow the New Democrats to hold on to 39 to 42 seats.
The above said, a strong possibility still exists that the B.C. New Democrats could pull out a win on October 19th, securing 48 to 52 seats, by keeping Courtenay-Comox and Victoria-Beacon Hill in the fold, as well as Vernon-Lumby in the Interior, while retaining both Susie Chant’s seat in North Vancouver-Seymour, and Janet Routledge’s Burnaby North seat, with both Lisa Beare — B.C. NDP Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills — and Bob D’Eith retaining their Maple Ridge seats. Add to those numbers, B.C. NDP pick ups in Vancouver-Langara, Cowichanand Kootenay-Rockies, and to any seasoned observer, the 2024 British Columbia provincial election is far from decided 18 days out from Election Day.
Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll, published on Monday, September 30, 2024
Projected seat count on Election Night, for all three B.C. political parties …
NEW @MainStResearch BC projection. Here are the results:
🔵 Conservatives: 54 seats, 45.7%.
🟠NDP: 39 seats, 41.7%.
🟢Green: 1 seat, 8.9%.
Chances of winning:
🔵Conservatives: 80.8%.
🟠NDP: 19.2%.
🟢Green: 0%#bcpoli
Tomorrow on VanRamblings we will write about why it is that a decent, hard working, incredibly skilled B.C. New Democratic government who mean well for our province, may go down to defeat to an unschooled crew of (far) right leaning folks who have no experience in government, and who will spend the first year and a half in the Legislature trying to figure out where the washrooms are located, never mind governing for the benefit of all British Columbians.
On Thursday, we’ll write a prescriptive column on what David Eby — in particular, because this election is turning out to be a referendum on David Eby’s governing style — and our beloved B.C. New Democrats can do to right the ship and claim victory on October 19th, or at least save the furniture with a showing in the forties.
In a conversation Sunday afternoon with our friend, architect and former Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Bill McCreery, he asked about why we’re such a smarty pants on why the B.C. NDP will lose the 2024 provincial election, and just where the heck are we getting the information we publish?
The answer: Initially our primary source was the Hotel Pacifico podcast featuring Mike McDonald — the knower of all things British Columbia politics, who has spent time in all 93 ridings across the province and knows each of these ridings intimately and well — Geoff Meggs, former Chief of Staff to Premier John Horgan, and no slouch himself when it comes to understanding B.C. politics, and the very excitable (we’ve loved that about him since 2017, when we saw him bouncing around the Legislature the day John Horgan’s government was sworn into power … although Mr. Zussman’s ever present enthusiasm seems to drive Mr. McDonald nuts), Richard Zussman, Global BC’s skilled and informed Legislative reporter.
In addition to the above, we’ve done our own research on the ridings we’ve written about, reading the local newspapers online, and more. We also listen to coverage of the provincial election on CBC’s morning broadcast, The Early Edition. We are just as addicted to Baldrey’s Beat, at 10:05am on CKNW’s Mike Smyth show. We also read all of Mr. Baldrey’s columns in various of our community newspapers.
We never miss Global BC’s Newshour, most particularly when Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman are talking about the election. Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman, on Global BC’s Focus BC insist that Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies will be pick ups for the New Democrats on Election Night.
And, finally, VanRamblings has our own well-developed and informed sources within both the B.C. New Democratic Party campaign for office, as well as the B.C. Conservative campaign, folks we speak with on an almost daily basis.
At age 74, we’re something of an old fogey and lack the energy we once did — for most elections we’ve written about in the past, 20 hour days for weeks on end was de rigeur to our approach to coverage … we’ve reduced that to six to eight hours a day now, although we’ve pulled an all-nighter or two this election cycle.
We’ve got lots we want to say, and to write, which we’ll do in the days to come.
VanRamblings’ friend and neighbour, raconteur and politico extraordinaire, Bill Tieleman — who we love with all our heart — expressed concern to us this past weekend about our contention that David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats will go down to defeat in the current election.
Why are we — a tried-and-true 61-year member of the NDP — writing so despairingly about the prospects of our beloved NDP? We suggested to Bill, why (in part, we’re sounding the alarm, another part arising in response to a current health issue that has recently come to the fore … time’s a wastin’, we suggested to Bill).
“You must forgive my penchant for optimism, despite daunting odds. We won a majority government in 1996, against a favoured, well-funded foe. So long odds don’t intimidate me at all. You may still be right in what you’ve been writing, but I continue to think the NDP’s several advantages will prevail in this fraught election.” Bill Tieleman, respected longtime political strategist, commentator and political pundit
From Bill’s lips to God’s ears. May all that is right and good prevail.
B.C. Premier David Eby has attacked the B.C. Conservatives over abortion, race and gender identity. B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad has been critical of Eby and the ‘radical NDP.’ | Photo: CBC.
On Tuesday evening, those who tuned into the contentious Kamala Harris-Donald Trump debate on ABC-TV witnessed the division and polarization that has come to frame realpolitik in the United States, and an ever more impactful defining feature of American politics over the past eight years, since Donald Trump first came down the elevator at New York City’s Trump Tower in 2015 to announce his Presidential bid to secure the Republican Party nomination.
If polarization and division have become a defining feature of American politics, in the 2024 British Columbia provincial election, with an alt-right / far right, climate change skeptical Conservative Party of British Columbia emerging as a serious contender for government over the current centre-left B.C. New Democratic Party government led by Premier David Eby, this year’s provincial election is poised to be one of the most contentious in the province’s history.
The deep polarization between the B.C. New Democrats and the B.C. Conservatives reflects a broader national and global trend, with political forces on the left and far right dominating the discourse.
The NDP is often seen as a left-leaning, socialist party, while the B.C. Conservatives, as we say above, have gained a reputation for being alt-right or far right, especially on social issues.
As both parties position themselves on opposite ends of the political spectrum, the rhetoric, contentious statements, and ideological battles between them have intensified, creating an atmosphere of division.
Polarization in British Columbia Politics
British Columbia has long been a politically diverse province, with both urban and rural areas reflecting distinct priorities and values.
Traditionally, the province has seen competition between the NDP, representing progressive, labour-oriented interests, and the B.C. Liberals, a more centrist / centre-right party. However, the resurgence of the B.C. Conservatives the last couple of years, combined with the decline of the B.C. Liberals / B.C. United, has created a new dynamic.
The NDP has consolidated its hold on progressive voters, while the Conservatives have catered to socially conservative and populist sentiments, giving rise to a polarized political landscape.
The B.C. NDP, under Premier David Eby, champions policies focused on climate action, the construction of affordable housing for various economic stratas, public transportation, social welfare programmes, and expanding public services.
A B.C. Conservative Party government would walk away from the province’s commitment to protect 30% of British Columbia’s wilderness land base by 2030, says party leader John Rustad .
These priorities resonate with urban voters, particularly in Vancouver and other metropolitan areas.
The NDP’s approach to addressing issues like affordable housing, health care, and environmental sustainability has been lauded by progressives but criticized by opponents as being overly ambitious and fiscally irresponsible.
On the other side, the B.C. Conservatives have positioned themselves as defenders of traditional values — for instance, the province’s SOGI 123 programme, which protects the interests of LGBTQ students — and individual freedoms.
#bcpoli Even friendly on Rustad says “some candidates who have called LGBTQ people “degenerates,” claimed COVID-19 vaccines give you magnetism, believed …, claimed 5G signals lead to genocide, and called for criminal investigations into Dr. Bonnie Henry https://t.co/kbZu4EKqkk
The B.C. Conservative Party has gained traction among rural voters and those disillusioned with the political establishment.
With rhetoric that often borders on populism, the B.C. Conservatives, under the leadership of John Rustad, have campaigned on issues like opposing carbon taxes, promoting resource extraction, and resisting what they view as “woke” progressive policies, including LGBTQ+ rights and climate change initiatives.
This sharp ideological division has made co-operation and compromise between the two parties seem increasingly unlikely.
Contentious Statements from the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservatives
Both current British Columbia political parties have made highly charged statements about one another, fueling the perception that this election is about more than just policy — it’s a battle over the future direction of the province.
The following was tweeted out by a retiring B.C. United MLA …
Wow. If I follow this way of thinking, this means women shouldn’t vote and should not be elected to government? A large percentage of undecided voters in BC are women and I can’t imagine this will make them too comfortable. https://t.co/vHkOd3h9iO
The B.C. NDP has painted the B.C. Conservatives as being out of touch with modern British Columbia, accusing them of aligning with far-right extremism.
Premier Eby and his colleagues have criticized the B.C. Conservatives for their stance on climate change, with NDP officials often labeling them as “climate change deniers” and suggesting that their policies would set the province back decades in the fight against global warming.
John Rustad’s candidate posts so many disturbing opinions on abortion, breastfeeding, and now the age of consent.
These concerning opinions tell you all you need to know about Rustad’s BC Conservatives.
Furthermore, the B.C. NDP has accused the B.C. Conservatives of being hostile to diversity and inclusion, particularly regarding LGBTQ+ rights, with some NDP members framing the B.C. Conservative agenda as “regressive” and “intolerant.”
As a young woman who experienced first hand the devastating cuts to sexual assault centres & support in the 2000s under John Rustad, I can absolutely without hesitation say that access to women’s healthcare is on the ballot this election. Conservatives want us to forget their… https://t.co/4Ma6ab9I9D
In response, the B.C. Conservatives have launched attacks on the NDP, framing the ruling party as being out of step with the needs of ordinary British Columbians.
B.C. Conservatives have characterized the NDP’s policies as “socialist overreach,” arguing the government is infringing on individual freedoms and burdening taxpayers with excessive regulations and taxes.
The B.C. Conservatives have taken aim at the NDP’s environmental policies, particularly the implementation of carbon taxes and clean energy initiatives, which they argue hurt the economy and disproportionately affect rural communities dependent on resource industries.
The B.C. Conservative Party leadership has also criticized the NDP for what they see as pandering to special interest groups, claiming the government is more focused on identity politics than on addressing inflation, crime, and economic growth.
As such, the B.C. Conservatives have taken a page out of Donald Trump’s MAGA Republican playbook, which has proved successful in the United States. We’ll have to wait until the evening of Saturday, October 19th to see whether the Trump-like B.C. Conservative electoral strategy bears fruit at the polls, and allows them to form government.
The 2024 B.C. Election May Become The Most Contentious On Record
Several factors make the upcoming election in British Columbia particularly contentious. First, the ideological gulf between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives is wider than ever.
Appalling. BC Conservative candidate Tim Thielmann just launched this bigoted attack on racialized NDP MLAs.
Reducing me and other MLAs to our skin colour is the same old Trump politics meant to divide us. @JohnRustad4BC are you really ok with this? pic.twitter.com/2ZVtkADAvS
While previous elections in the province have often involved debates over centrist policies, this election is shaping up to be a choice between two starkly different visions for the future. On one side is the NDP’s progressive, environmentally conscious, and socially inclusive platform, and on the other is the B.C. Conservatives’ economically libertarian, socially conservative, and resource-focused agenda.
John Rustad says we can’t be harmed by carbon pollution because we’re carbon-based. This is the same logic as saying a brick to the head won’t hurt you because we’re both made of atoms. Utterly moronic conspiracy views. #UnfitToLead#bcpolihttps://t.co/pjcN1NJZfZ
The B.C. NDP is seeking a mandate to continue its transformative policies, particularly around climate action and social justice, while the B.C. Conservatives are eager to capitalize on voter discontent.
For many voters, the upcoming election is about more than just political leadership — it’s about the soul of British Columbia itself.
Urban voters, particularly in Vancouver and Victoria, may see the election as a referendum on progressive policies, while rural voters view it as a chance to push back against what they perceive as an out-of-touch government.
Broader national & global trends are influencing B.C.’s upcoming election
Across Canada and other Western democracies, political polarization has increased, with far-right and far-left parties gaining ground as centrist parties struggle to maintain relevance.
In British Columbia, this trend is magnified by the province’s unique political landscape, where environmental concerns and social issues intersect with a resource-based economy.
With the B.C. Liberals / B.C. United Party having abandoned its bid for government, the resulting fight between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives represents a new era in provincial politics, one where compromise seems unlikely, with the stakes being higher than ever.
As the election approaches — the Writ will be dropped on Saturday, September 21st, at which time the election will be officially underway — the rhetoric between the two parties is intensifying, with each accusing the other of being out of touch with the province’s needs.
With so much at stake — climate action, housing, economic development, social justice, and the future direction of British Columbia — B.C.’s upcoming election is likely to prove to be a pivotal moment in the province’s social and economic history, setting the stage for B.C.’s political trajectory for years to come.
Dimitri Pantazopoulos, President @ Yorkville Strategies, Inc. | Partner @ Maple Leaf Strategies
Dimitri Pantazopoulos could very well play a determinative role in the outcome of the 2024 British Columbia provincial election.
Should John Rustad’s fledgling B.C. Conservative Party emerge victorious late on the evening of Saturday, October 19th, such an outcome will arise in part from the genius organizing skills of Mr. Pantazopoulos, the pollster / de facto co-campaign manager for the upstart, recently revived British Columbia political party.
Dating back to 2004, Dimitri Pantazopoulos was Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper’s pollster, a role he played through until the defeat of the Harper government in 2015. Mr. Pantazopoulos remains to this day the definitive pollster for Pierre Poilievre’s — certain to be government in 2025 — federal Conservative party.
When it comes to British Columbia, Dimitri Pantazopoulos’ myth-making claim to fame arises from B.C. LiberalPremier Christy Clark’s come from behind victory at the polls on Monday, May 13, 2013, in that year’s all-important provincial election.
When Dimitri Pantazopoulos arrived in British Columbia in early 2013, from his home in Ottawa, to survey the political scene in our province on behalf of the B.C. Liberal party, Mr. Pantazopoulos and his crack team from Maple Leaf Strategies set about to conduct intensive polling in the, then, 84 provincial ridings that comprised British Columbia’s tumultuous, voter capricious political landscape.
At the time, an unpopular Premier Christy Clark was mired at 26% in the polls, while newly-minted B.C. New Democratic Party leader Adrian Dix was riding a wave of unprecedented popularity, registering 49% support from British Columbia residents, an electorate eager for change, ready to make Mr. Dix B.C.’s 35th Premier.
In late mid-March 2013, a confident, ebullient Dimitri Pantazopoulos told the Premier, B.C. Liberal campaign manager Mike McDonald, and top B.C. Liberal fundraiser, Bob Rennie that the election could not only be won by Premier Clark, but that she could secure a majority government early in the evening of May 13th.
To say that Premier Clark, Mike McDonald and Bob Rennie were incredulousupon hearing what Mr. Pantazopoulos had to say would be to understate the matter.
Here’s what Dimitri Pantazopoulos told the political trio of disbelieving doubters.
“Having surveyed the province, my team and I believe that the B.C. Liberal party could win 50 seats on election night. We’ve identified those 50 seats. The remaining 34 ridings are write-offs, and represent unwinnable NDP strongholds into which the B.C. Liberals, although you may nominate candidates in those ridings, should not put one plug nickel into supporting the B.C. Liberal candidates running in those ridings.
On the other hand, in the 50 winnable ridings for the B.C. Liberal party, you’ll want to pour all of your resources into those ridings. Maple Leaf Strategies will conduct nightly polling in those 50 ridings, and “meet” with the candidates in those ridings each morning to advise them of the issues — identified in our nightly polling in the riding — that should be the focus of their activity and public pronouncements that day. I guarantee, should the B.C. Liberal party move forward on my recommendation, the party will secure victory in each of those ridings, as we run a hyper-local campaign for office in 2013.”
Premier Clark, Mike McDonald and Bob Rennie thought that Mr. Pantazopoulos had lost his marbles — but what did they have to lose in adopting Dimitri’s electoral strategy? Defeat seemed almost certain at that point. Dimitri Pantazopoulos offered the doleful B.C. Liberal election team a ray of hope that the party would not be wiped out at the polls, as unconvinced as they remained of the prospect of victory at the polls two months hence.
Premier Christy Clark, grinning like the chesire cat that both got the cream, and swallowed the canary
Premier Christy Clark did, indeed, emerge victorious with a comfortable majority government on May 13, 2013 thrilling the Premier, her campaign manager and major fundraiser. Dimitri Pantazopoulos had been right and there was untold joy at B.C. Liberal election headquarters that night.
Conservative Party of British Columbia leader John Rustad. Soon to be 38th Premier of our province?
In 2024, Dimitri Pantazopoulos has returned to British Columbia with a vengeance, working overtime to a secure victory for the band of untested newbies running for office with the embryonic, nascently inchoate British Columbia Conservative party.
You know what we can’t afford? The EBYNDP, their $5 billion deficits, opioid deaths, free crack pipes, shuttered Emergency Rooms, traffic snarls, crumbling infrastructure. We can’t afford EBYNDP’s radical schemes. https://t.co/OhUY5Oj3mF
Nine years on, Mr. Pantazopoulos and his team have identified 55 winnable ridings for the B.C. Conservatives, a number that may rise now that B.C. United has folded into the B.C. Conservative party. The fly in the ointment in 2024, though? The B.C. Conservative Party is woefully underfunded, having raised a paltry three million dollars, a fraction of the $26 million with which Premier David Eby’s New Democratic Party of British Columbia will fight the upcoming provincial election.
In some measure, the success of the B.C. Liberal campaign in 2013 was due to the 30-second game changing ads that ran incessantly, multiple times during the Global BC, CTV Vancouver and CBC morning, noon, 5pm, 6pm and 11pm newscasts — not to mention, every radio station across the province — that cast Adrian Dix as an ineffectual flip flopper, and a poor choice for Premier of the province. Add to that two botched debates by the NDP leader.
Taking into consideration Dimitri Pantazopoulos’ game plan, together with the devastatingly effective campaign ads run again Mr. Dix, and the poor debate performances by the NDP leader, spelled electoral doom for Adrian Dix’s New Democratic Party, which lost and lost badly to Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals.
Underfunded or not, Dimitri Pantazopoulos and his team believe a victory for John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative party a near certainty — not, of course, if Premier David Eby’s BC NDP have anything to say about the matter. And they do, and they will.
All said, the wind is at the back of British Columbia’s provincial Conservative party, as they ride the wave of popularity that federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre currently enjoys in all parts of British Columbia, and across Canada.
Add to that, members of the election teams that helped secure victory for Conservative Premier Tim Houston in Nova Scotia, a second term for Ontario Premier Doug Ford, and last year a surprise victory for far-right-of-centre Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the outcome of British Columbia’s upcoming election — our provincial election officially gets underway on Saturday, September 21st — may be far from certain, but given, as well, that the B.C. Conservatives, apart from the controversy that some of their soon-to-be-former candidates caused, could win it all on Saturday, October 19th, and form the next government.
Two fine B.C. Conservative candidates, one of whom we’ll endorse, the other who we like very much
Wednesday and Thursday on VanRamblings, we’ll take a look at the Vancouver-Yaletown and Vancouver-Little Mountain ridings, where two strong B.C. Conservative candidates for office are currently vying for elected provincial office.
TheCurse of Politicspodcast, where the ineffable David Herle, Jordan Leichnitz and Kory Teneycke discuss and debate the shenanigans that have gone on in British Columbia politics this past week.
