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#BCPoli | BC NDP on Track to Lose Election, Despite the BC Conservative Party Being Unfit to Govern

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VanRamblings continues to believe that the British Columbia New Democratic Party will lose the 2024 provincial election.

In fact, the current circumstance is so bad for the party, and its leader David Eby, chances are 50/50 that Mr. Eby will lose his Vancouver-Point Grey seat.

The public seems not to care that John Rustad and the Conservative Party of British Columbia are fielding a surfeit of sexist, misogynist, racist, homophobic and transphobic, climate change denying, reproductive rights denying hate mongers — by no means are we saying that this ne’ er-do-well retinue of antediluvian B.C. Conservative Party candidates represent the entirety, or even a majority, of the B.C. Conservative candidates running for office under the Conservative banner — but rather the desire for change, the anger at what many consider to be an arrogant David Eby-led B.C. NDP administration has proved so concerning, the party in power for the past seven years will lose government eight short days from now.

At dissolution, the B.C. NDP held 55 seats: the party is set to lose up to 18 seats …

  • Vancouver Island. North Island, Courtenay-Comox and Nanaimo-Lantzville will be lost to the B.C. NDP and won by the B.C. Conservatives, as will likely be the case in the Ladysmith-Oceanside riding, with the probability that popular NDP Cabinet Minister Grace Lore will lose her Victoria-Beacon Hill seat to either the Green Party’s Sonia Furstenau, or B.C. Conservative candidate Tim Thielmann;
  • Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley. The NDP’s Mike Starchuk will lose his Surrey-Cloverdale seat to B.C. Conservative candidate Elenore Sturko. One or both of the Langley seats will be lost by the NDP, although there’s a fighting chance Megan Dykeman will hold on to her Langley-Walnut Grove seat. Abbotsford-Mission is a goner for the NDP, as are both of the  Chilliwack seats currently held by the B.C. NDP;
  • Metro Vancouver, north of the Inlet / Fraser River. Susie Chant will lose her North Vancouver-Seymour seat, as will Janet Routledge, in Burnaby North. One of two, or perhaps both Maple Ridge NDP seats will be counted as a loss(es) on election night.

That’s a total of 11 seats the B.C. NDP are all but guaranteed to lose, which would reduce their seat count to 44, or three below a  majority.

If the B.C. NDP lose two more Surrey seats — as is expected — and lose both Langley and both Maple Ridge seats — and lose Victoria-Beacon Hill — that would add five to the total of lost seats, leaving the B.C. NDP with 39 seats.

Keep an eye on the ridings above on Election Night.

If the B.C. NDP are falling behind in these ridings, and on track to lose them to the B.C. Conservatives, you’ll see Global BC / CTV / CBC call the election for the B.C. Conservatives early in the evening.

The good news is that the B.C. NDP are set to pick up three ridings: Cowichan, Vancouver-Langara and Kootenay-Rockies.

Surprisingly — and we feel disappointingly — in David Eby’s home riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, Mr. Eby is running neck and neck with the controversial B.C. Conservative Party candidate, Paul Ratchford.

As we live in the Vancouver-Point Grey riding, we have heard from a large number of residents in the riding that they will be parking their vote with the Green Party candidate, Devanyi Singh, rather than vote for David Eby.

David Eby could very well lose his own seat on Election Night.

The up side for the B.C. New Democratic Party campaign — and, yes, there is heartening news to be had — is that the party has recovered its support among women voters, and are currently polling 17 points ahead of the B.C. Conservatives with women voters. So, yes indeed, there is still some hope yet for a B.C. NDP win.

Also, in the good news department: the latest polling shows that the B.C. NDP have recovered their support among the electorate age 55+, with even stronger support among those 65 years of age and up. Given that this portion of the population gets out to vote, if the B.C. New Democrats — who have a superb ground game and excel at getting their vote out — can ensure their more mature voters get to either the Advance Polls, or to the polling station on Election Day, that would bode well.

And, finally, in the good news department: the B.C. New Democrats have recovered their support with voters age 18 to 34. Seems that young folks are once again enthusiastic about the B.C. NDP campaign, most probably in response to the failings of the “yep, they’re a grotty bunch of aged, mostly white, mostly male, sexist, misogynist, homo-and-transphobic, and climate change denying ne-er-do-well” B.C. Conservatives, as we’ve seen day-in and day out as reported in various news outlets, on our social media feeds, on Tik Tok, and in small, informal gatherings of friends, “I mean, you’re not voting Conservative, are you?”

Nope, younger voters will not be placing an X next to the name of the B.C. Conservative candidate on the ballot they’ll receive at their local polling station.

All of the above is by way of saying, “it ain’t over til it’s over.”

The election of a John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party government would bring chaos, hurt and dysfunction, a maintaining of the status quo — for instance, all of the NDP’s housing projects would grind to a halt, as single family dwellings are maintained as the housing form of choice, with nothing getting done, no new schools built or seismically upgraded —and even more egregiously, the SOGI 123 programme that protects LBGTQ+ and gender variant children will be lost, along with 4,000 books from school libraries, identified by far-right-wing “parental rights” forces — transit will not be properly funded … well, the list goes on and on.

Just because the electoral circumstance is looking dire, doesn’t mean that VanRamblings has any intention of rolling over, or that we’re giving up.

Instead, as we promised on our Facebook timeline yesterday, on VanRamblings today you will find a link to the B.C. United “oppo doc” — see below, and click on the highlighted link — the now defunct, and once powerful, political party compiled on the unfit for office candidates running under the B.C. Conservative banner.

#BCPOLI | OPPO RESEARCH DOC | B.C. United on BC Conservative candidates

Should you click on the link above, you will find concerning information on …

  • Dallas Brodie (Vancouver Quilchena)
  • Chris Sankey (North Coast-Haida Gwaii)
  • Bryan Breguet (Vancouver-Langara)
  • Paul Ratchford (Vancouver-Point Grey)
  • Harman Banghu (Langley-Abbotsford)
  • Jordan Kealy (Peace River North)
  • Larry Neufeld (Peace River South)
  • Tim Thielmann (Victoria-Beacon Hill)
  • Honveer Singh Randhawa (Surrey-Guildford)
  • Korky Neufeld (Abbotsford West)
  • Rosalyn Bird (Prince George-Valemount)
  • Tony Luck (Fraser Nicola)
  • John Koury (Cowichan Valley).

Well, the list goes on and on of B.C. Conservative Party malefactors.

You’ll want to read the oppo doc for yourself.

It’s an eye-opening document providing disturbing insight into the people who could soon be running our province.

#BCPoli | Charlie Smith Weighs In| Campaign 2024

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In a change of pace, on VanRamblings today we will publish the latest column written by respected British Columbia journalist, Charlie Smith, for nearly two decades the Editor of The Georgia Straight newspaper.

In the 2024 British Columbia provincial, Mr. Smith has come forward as an Independent candidate for office in the riding of Richmond-Bridgeport.

Please find below an “abridged” version of Mr. Smith’s column. The original, unexpurgated column may be read in its entirety by clicking or tapping here.


Protesters against vaccine mandates often invoked Nuremberg 2.0.

Random thoughts on John Rustad, Nuremberg 2.0, and Teresa Wat’s decision to join the B.C. Conservatives
Richmond-Bridgeport Independent candidate Charlie Smith wonders how Rustad could have misunderstood “Nuremberg 2.0”, given all the publicity

This week, the anti-science leader of the B.C. Conservatives apologized for his earlier response to a question about trying public-health officials for war crimes. John Rustad expressed regret for saying he would “certainly be participating with other jurisdictions”.

This came after he was asked in an online meeting about his position on Nuremburg 2.0.

Rustad professed that he misunderstood the question.

As the Independent candidate in Richmond-Bridgeport, I am feeling skeptical. If he indeed misunderstood, then he is remarkably ignorant about a subject that has received tremendous attention in recent years.

I say this as someone who has written several articles about how opponents of mRNA vaccines have been raising a ruckus about Nuremberg-style war crime trials.

In fact, I’m currently being sued for defamation by someone who sent me a notice of liability. This notice purported that I had violated the findings of the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal through my reporting on COVID-19 vaccines.

In the past, I also received threats of lawsuits from others who opposed the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. They too claimed that I was committing grave crimes through my reporting.

A group called Action4Canada created these notices of liability. They were widely distributed to politicians, health officials, and media workers.

One of them states …

“Members of the Media who lied and misled the German People were executed, right along with Medical Doctors and Nurses who participated in medical experiments using living people as guinea pigs. Those who forget the past are condemned to relive it.”

Sometimes, the activists would gather outside TV and radio stations and distribute these notices of liability. In one of these notices that I obtained, this message appears under a photo of Nazi war criminals being hanged.

Politicians hanged in effigy

Then, there was the highly publicized rally in front of the B.C. Legislature on December 9, 2021. Provincial NDP politicians were hanged in effigy as part of the protest. This took place at an event promoted as the 75th anniversary of the Nuremberg trials.

Just over a week later, a sandwich board sign was placed outside a Vancouver church declaring “Nuremberg Trial 2.0”. This phrase appeared above the face of Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry after she had prohibited in-person church services to stop the spread of the Omicron variant.

Earlier that year, I wrote about a COVID-19 denier who warned staff at the Castanet media outlet that they will hang for “being involved with the most corrupt hoax in history”. The man’s associate mentioned the Nuremberg trials.

I wrote another article about how a former People’s Party of Canada candidate wrote “should happen again” on social media. She did this in response to a meme declaring: “During the Nuremberg trials, even the media was prosecuted and put to death for lying to the public.”

Then, there were the mass protests at hospitals by opponents of mRNA vaccines. Outside Vancouver General Hospital, a crowd chanted “lock her up” in response to a speaker mentioning Dr. Henry by name. Health workers complained that they had trouble getting through the crowds.

“Some of these activists are eager to hold Nuremberg-like show trials for public-health officials and politicians who support vaccine passports,” I wrote at the time.

Yet Rustad claims that he misunderstood the question about Nuremberg 2.0 when he was in a Zoom meeting with people who opposed the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. This week to defuse the controversy, he insisted that it was a “distortion of history” to draw links between the crimes of the Holocaust and the mass immunization of the public against COVID-19.

A political double standard

All I can say is if Rustad did not know the meaning of Nuremberg 2.0 after playing political footsie with the people advancing this idea over the past two years, then he hasn’t really been listening to what they are saying.

I also marvel over the incredible double standard that we have in B.C. politics.

When a brown and renowned pediatric cardiac surgeon accidentally hit a “like” on a tweet mentioning a Nazi war criminal, a media and political uproar drummed him out of politics. But when a white leader of a right-wing party proclaims that he misunderstood the meaning of Nuremberg 2.0 in response to a direct question, all is forgiven.

Rustad is still in the race to become Premier.

I’m running in Richmond-Bridgeport for several reasons. One of them is so that residents have the option of voting someone who has always favoured evidence-based responses to the COVID-19 catastrophe.

Richmond-Bridgeport has many voters of Chinese ancestry. I admire how they played a leadership role in the early days of the pandemic by being among the first to wear masks to stop the spread of COVID-19. Chinese community leaders were among the first to call for more testing and greater use of masks. I know this because I edited an article by two of them.

To her credit, my Conservative opponent who is seeking re-election in Richmond-Bridgeport issued stirring words at the start of the pandemic.

“I rise today to remind everyone that the coronavirus is a common enemy, one we must fight and overcome together,” Teresa Wat said in the legislature on February 12, 2020 as a B.C. Liberal MLA.

“We must also fight hard against the spread of fearmongering and stigmatization,” Wat continued. “Negative stereotypes towards any group have no place in British Columbia or in Canada. It is in times like this, more than ever, that we as Canadians have a responsibility to protect our multicultural communities and support our local businesses.”

Bravo.


Teresa Wat sided with Rustad against ex-colleagues who back mRNA vaccinations.

Wat sides with the B.C. Conservatives

But now more than four years later — after Rustad pandered to the Nuremberg 2.0 crowd — Wat decided to abandon her caucus colleagues. She did this despite B.C. United caucus members consistently supporting mRNA vaccines to fight COVID-19.

Instead, Wat threw her lot in with Rustad after already qualifying for a lucrative MLA pension if she chose not to seek reelection.

Wat became a B.C. Conservative MLA even though the party was built, in part, by leaders in the movement against mRNA vaccines. Some in this movement talk seriously about Nuremberg-style war crimes trials for public health officials, politicians, and journalists.

One of the anti-mRNA vaccine movement’s slogans has been “the media is the virus”.

Donald Trump uses the racist phrase “China virus”.

I urge the voters of Richmond-Bridgeport to keep this history in mind when they go to the polls. I will fight for the health of all voters regardless of race, ethnicity or national origin by proposing evidence-based responses to public-health issues.

It’s an obscenity against the victims of the Holocaust to liken the work of B.C. public health officials, politicians, and hardworking journalists to sadistic mass murderers who were hanged after the Second World War.


You may subscribe to Charlie Smith’s necessary and invaluable Substack by clicking or tapping here.

#BCPoli | Former BC United MLAs & Candidates to Run as Independents

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In the aftermath of the dissolution of B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberal Party, several incumbent B.C. United members of British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly, and former candidates, have this past week decided to run as Independents in the upcoming 2024 British Columbia provincial election.

This rise of Independents running for election — or, re-election — follows B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad and shutter the party, leaving centrist voters without a clear political home. The choices made by these MLAs and former candidates to run as Independents reveal a divergence of political philosophy from Kevin Falcon’s strategy, and reflect concerns about the lack of moderate representation in provincial politics.

The Independent Candidates: Incumbent Members of the Legislature

Several incumbent B.C. United MLAs have announced they will be running as Independents. Each brings their own rationale for breaking away from the party and running independently:

  • Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano): A staunch advocate for centrist policies, Kirkpatrick has expressed discomfort with B.C. United’s decision to merge its support with the B.C. Conservatives. Her primary concerns centre on the erosion of moderate voices, particularly regarding social policy issues like LGBTQ rights and environmental policies, which she sees as being disregarded by the decidedly more right-wing Conservative Party of British Columbia. MLA Karin Kirkpatrick aims to continue representing her constituents with hard work, and a centrist approach.

  • Coralee Oakes (Cariboo North): Ms. Oakes — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Community, Sport and Cultural Development — with a deep history of public service in her rural riding, has also similarly distanced herself from the merger. She has criticized the B.C. Conservatives alt-right stance, as she emphasizes her commitment to pragmatic, community-based governance that is neither aligned with the socially democratic B.C. NDP nor the far-too-right-wing for her, B.C. Conservatives. Oakes’s focus remains on rural issues such as forestry and infrastructure.
  • Mike Bernier (Peace River South): Mr. Bernier — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Education — has long advocated for resource development and economic growth, but believes that the endorsement of the B.C. Conservative Party by Kevin Falcon represents a step too far toward the political right. Running as an Independent allows Mr. Benier to maintain a balance between economic conservatism and moderate social policies that he believes reflect the values of his constituents.
  • Dan Davies (Peace River North): Mr. Davies has taken a similar stance, underscoring the importance of responsible fiscal policy without compromising on social issues like education and healthcare. His departure from B.C. United reflects his unease with the B.C. Conservatives extreme positions, particularly regarding climate change and Indigenous relations, which are key issues in his resource-rich riding.
  • Tom Shypitka (Kootenay-Rockies): Mr. Shypitka, known for his work in mining and natural resource sectors, has voiced concerns about how Kevin Falcon’s endorsement of the John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party could alienate voters who are interested in economic development, but who also value progressive stances on issues like environmental sustainability. By running as an Independent, Mr. Shypitka hopes to represent a balance that the B.C. Conservative Party does not embrace.

Former B.C. United Candidates Turning Independent in 2024

Several former B.C. United candidates are also taking the Independent route:

  • Jackie Lee (Richmond-Steveston) and Wendy Yuan (Richmond Centre).  A long-time advocate for immigrant communities and small businesses, Jackie Lee has voiced frustration over the lack of moderate representation, most particularly Conservative’s socially intolerant stances. Meanwhile, Wendy Yuan is a three decade resident in the Richmond Centre riding, who has expressed concern about escalating crime, open drug use, and a relentless surge in the cost of living.
  • Karen Long (Langley-Abbotsford), Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre) and Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland). All four former — well known in their communities — B.C. United candidates, now running as Independents, have expressed similar concerns regarding social policies and a desire to represent their ridings with a more balanced platform, reflecting frustration with the direction taken by John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party.

  • Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) and Greg McCune (Salmon Arm-Shuwap): These candidates, who have championed rural issues like farming and resource management, have expressed concerns about the polarizing impact of the B.C. Conservative Party on voters who may not agree with their stance on climate change or social issues, but still want robust support for local economies.
  • Meiling Chia (Burnaby South-Metrotown): Ms. Chia has positioned herself as a voice for urban issues like housing affordability and transit. She believes that neither the B.C. Conservatives nor the B.C. NDP offers real solutions for these problems, particularly in fast-growing urban areas where centrist solutions are needed

The Impact of Independent Candidates on B.C.’s Provincial Election

The decision by these former B.C. United MLAs and candidates to run as Independents will have significant implications for both the B.C. Conservative Party and the B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP) in the upcoming election.

  • Impact on B.C. Conservative Party: With B.C. United’s former base splintering, the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad are poised to gain support, especially in rural ridings where conservative values are popular. However, the presence of high-profile Independents like Bernier, Oakes, and Davies could split the vote in these regions, potentially reducing the chances of a B.C. Conservative victory. These Independents may appeal to voters who are fiscally conservative but uncomfortable with the B.C. Conservatives’ positions on social issues like LGBTQ rights and climate change.
  • Impact on B.C. NDP: The splintering of the centre-right vote could benefit the B.C. NDP, especially in urban ridings like Richmond-Steveston, Burnaby South-Metrotown, and Kelowna-Mission. Without a strong centrist party, the B.C. NDP may face less competition from a unified right, allowing them to consolidate support in key battlegrounds. However, if Independent candidates gain enough traction, they could draw away moderate voters who would otherwise have supported the NDP as a strategic choice.

Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse John Rustad and close B.C. United has left a significant void in British Columbia’s political landscape. VanRamblings has been told by folks in the know that come the 2028 British Columbia provincial election voters will see the revival of a vibrant new, well-funded B.C. Liberal party, offering a fiscally responsible, and socially progressive approach to B.C. politics.

In 2024, by running as Independents, the former B.C. United MLAs and candidates we write about today are aiming to fill that gap, providing voters with a centrist option they believe no longer exists within B.C.’s formal party system.

Their presence in the election is likely to reshape the dynamics in key ridings, creating new challenges for both the B.C. Conservatives and the B.C. NDP.

Whether this strategy will succeed remains to be seen, but it underscores the shifting political terrain in British Columbia as voters navigate between the increasingly polarized political options on offer in the British Columbia provincial election.

#BCPoli | Falcon | The King is Dead, Long Live the King

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When BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced yesterday afternoon in a joint press conference with BC Conservative leader John Rustad that he would be resigning as leader of his party — while suspending BC United’s campaign for office in the upcoming British Columbia election, leaving John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative party to represent the alleged centre-right in a two-way race with David Eby’s British Columbia New Democratic Party, Kevin Falcon did so with a heavy heart.

Today on VanRamblings, we’ll provide you with the background that led to Kevin Falcon making his decision to step away from British Columbia electoral politics.

Make no mistake, there is no love loss between Kevin Falcon and John Rustad.

Kevin Falcon continues to believe — as he espoused to Global BC’s Keith Baldrey in a breakfast / walk around the Legislature grounds on Tuesday morning — that John Rustad represents an existential threat to the health and well-being of British Columbians, in particular to the interests of families raising children.

Interesting that Kevin Falcon — as VanRamblings has been writing all week — gave as rationale for his resignation, the interests of his two young daughters, and by extension all children across the province.

Focusing on the interests of children was the code Mr. Falcon employed to state that he remains adamantly opposed to the climate denialist, homo-and-transphobic, racist, misogynist,  anti-vaxx, Christian dominionist-wannabe, Trump-like John Rustad-led BC Conservatives.

So, what led Kevin Falcon to make the very difficult decision to leave politics?

Sources tell us, two weeks ago representatives of the development industry in our province met with Mr. Falcon, demanding he resign as BC United party leader, and fold the B.C. United tent in favour of supporting John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative party, a “request” that was anathema to Kevin Falcon.

The development industry was not simply making a suggestion to Kevin Falcon, an idle request he might consider, but a demand, backed up by a threat …

“Either you resign as leader, and fold the B.C. United campaign for office, or we assure you that you will never work again in British Columbia, no one will hire you, you will be unemployable, and unable to provide for your family.”

Representatives of the development industry were not making an idle threat.

Kevin Falcon was given two weeks to make up his mind as to what course of action he would take. In coming to a decision, Mr.Falcon took the interests of his wife, and his two daughters, Josephine and Rose, as his priority and .. resigned.


Dimitri Pantazopoulos, currently employed as B.C. Conservative pollster, and co-campaign manager

Earlier this week, Kevin Falcon met with his longtime friend Dimitri Pantazopoulos, long Stephen Harper’s Conservative party pollster, B.C. Liberal and Vancouver Non-Partisan Association pollster, who is currently employed by the surging B.C. Conservatives as that party’s pollster, and de facto co-campaign manager. As you may recall, it was Mr. Pantazopoulos who in British Columbia’s 2013 provincial election identified the 50 B.C. ridings that the B.C. Liberals could win — this at a time when B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark was mired at 26% in the polls, with Adrian Dix soaring at 49% voter approval. Indeed, on May 14, 2013, Christy Clark did, in fact, win the 50 seats Mr. Pantazopoulos had identified.

When Dimitri Pantazopoulos met with Kevin Falcon, Mr. Pantazopoulos told him …

“Kevin, not only will B.C. United be decimated at the polls on the night of October 19th, none of B.C. United’s candidates will win in their ridings, and that includes you. At the moment, Kevin, you are running a distant second to Dallas Brodie, the B.C. Conservative candidate and longtime resident within your Vancouver-Quilchena riding, while you continue to maintain your family home across the inlet in North Vancouver. You’re going to lose, and lose badly, an embarrassing and regrettable loss to be sure, but a most assured loss, and a humiliating end to your once promising political career in British Columbia politics.”

And with that piece of devastating news, Kevin Falcon’s decision was made.

The ironic aspect to the present British Columbia political circumstance, where John Rustad stands on the precipice of victory at the polls on October 19th, is that Mr. Rustad doesn’t even want to be British Columbia’s next Premier.

At 61 years of age, having celebrated his birthday on August 18th, Mr. Rustad believes he’s had his day in the sun — as British Columbia’s once upon a time B.C Liberal government Minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation, and Minister of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources. Not for this man from the hinterlands, the cut and thrust of electoral politics. Mr. Rustad simply wants to rest.

When John Rustad was unceremoniously dropped from the B.C. Liberal caucus on his birthday in 2022, for his antediluvian stand on LGBTQ issues, his vehement opposition to the SOGI 123 (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) programme, his contention that climate change is a hoax, his support of the anti-vaxx movement, and his adherence to any number of QAnon conspiracy theories, including wireless 5G as a root cause of COVID, John Rustad was only too happy to leave what he considered to be a “too progressive” BC United party.

When, some months, later — on Friday, March 31st, 2023 — John Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservative party, he expected that he’d been heading a conservative party better aligned with his alt-right values, and a provincial political party that in 2024 would likely secure only 1.92% of the vote, as the B.C. Conservatives had in the 2020 British Columbia provincial general election.

Colour John Rustad surprised and disappointed when that presumed outcome of his leadership of the B.C. Conservative party did not come to pass.

So, what does this hill ‘o beans all mean?

Well, there are a couple of issues to consider before we wrap today’s column.

According to an extensive polling of British Columbians from across the province that was conducted last evening, David Eby’s New Democratic Party finds itself in pretty good shape following Kevin Falcon’s resignation as B.C. United leader, with an expected win of 57 seats (a 10-seat majority) in the next (post election) session of the Legislature, to only 36 seats for John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives.

Given how Kevin Falcon came to define his B.C. United party as a fiscally conservative, yet socially progressive, political party, the thinking among the political cogniscenti is that the remaining adherents of B.C. United just can’t stomach John Rustad’s alt-right B.C. Conservative party and have headed over to the political party, the B.C. New Democrats, that better align with their values.

Next up: you know how we were discussing the power of the development industry to influence the state of politics in British Columbia? Well, listen up, cuz we’ve got a story of wit and (who knows how much) wisdom to tell you.

Turns out that the development industry is pretty darn happy with David Eby’s “we’re gonna build 100,000 units of housing in our next term of government” development ethos. Through Geoff Meggs — former Vision Vancouver City Councillor, former Chief of Staff to Premier John Horgan, and since 2005 the left’s political liaison to the development industry, and at present a senior housing development advisor to Premier David Eby and Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon — they’ve been only too happy to fund David Eby’s NDP re-election bid.

Who’da thunk, huh?

The development industry does not want John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives to win — gain 40 seats, sure, but hell’s bells, not win — so that John Rustad, who doesn’t for gawd’s sake even want to be Premier, might be replaced within the next year by someone who would, sure, be conservative, but a more pragmatic and palatable to the general public conservative.

Hell, if the antediluvian John Rustad were to win, the development industry would lose billions of dollars in revenue from the David Eby ‘transit-oriented projects’ that would be sidelined were the B.C. Conservatives to win majority government on Saturday, October 19th.

With an easily manipulated Brad West, Elenore Sturko or that youngster, Gavin Dew, installed as the next B.C. Conservative party leader — following John Rustad’s ouster —  should the development industry tire of David Eby come the next provincial election in 2028, they’d have their favourite ambitious, developer-friendly guy or gal in place to do their bidding.

Everybody wins, except us.

Today, we are 52 days away from knowing the outcome of the 2024 British Columbia provincial election, an election VanRamblings predicts will experience a record low turnout — as happened in the last Ontario election, when a paltry 43% of the population turned out to vote, by orders of magnitude the lowest ever turnout in any provincial election, ever.

What does David Eby’s New Democratic Party have in their favour that might contribute to victory come the evening of Saturday, October 19th? A ground game. There is no political party in Canada, and in B.C. in particular, that has a better, more sophisticated and vibrant Get Out the Vote (GOTV) mechanism.

VanRamblings has worked on dozens of federal and provincial NDP campaigns.

We can tell you that you don’t know the meaning of the word organized until you’ve worked on a B.C. New Democratic Party election campaign.

Not to mention, David Eby’s NDP are, by far, the best funded B.C. political party.

What do the B.C. Conservatives have in their favour?

We’ll get into that next week — when, unlike above, we promise to be kind.