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#BCPoli | Falcon | The King is Dead, Long Live the King

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When BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced yesterday afternoon in a joint press conference with BC Conservative leader John Rustad that he would be resigning as leader of his party — while suspending BC United’s campaign for office in the upcoming British Columbia election, leaving John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative party to represent the alleged centre-right in a two-way race with David Eby’s British Columbia New Democratic Party, Kevin Falcon did so with a heavy heart.

Today on VanRamblings, we’ll provide you with the background that led to Kevin Falcon making his decision to step away from British Columbia electoral politics.

Make no mistake, there is no love loss between Kevin Falcon and John Rustad.

Kevin Falcon continues to believe — as he espoused to Global BC’s Keith Baldrey in a breakfast / walk around the Legislature grounds on Tuesday morning — that John Rustad represents an existential threat to the health and well-being of British Columbians, in particular to the interests of families raising children.

Interesting that Kevin Falcon — as VanRamblings has been writing all week — gave as rationale for his resignation, the interests of his two young daughters, and by extension all children across the province.

Focusing on the interests of children was the code Mr. Falcon employed to state that he remains adamantly opposed to the climate denialist, homo-and-transphobic, racist, misogynist,  anti-vaxx, Christian dominionist-wannabe, Trump-like John Rustad-led BC Conservatives.

So, what led Kevin Falcon to make the very difficult decision to leave politics?

Sources tell us, two weeks ago representatives of the development industry in our province met with Mr. Falcon, demanding he resign as BC United party leader, and fold the B.C. United tent in favour of supporting John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative party, a “request” that was anathema to Kevin Falcon.

The development industry was not simply making a suggestion to Kevin Falcon, an idle request he might consider, but a demand, backed up by a threat …

“Either you resign as leader, and fold the B.C. United campaign for office, or we assure you that you will never work again in British Columbia, no one will hire you, you will be unemployable, and unable to provide for your family.”

Representatives of the development industry were not making an idle threat.

Kevin Falcon was given two weeks to make up his mind as to what course of action he would take. In coming to a decision, Mr.Falcon took the interests of his wife, and his two daughters, Josephine and Rose, as his priority and .. resigned.


Dimitri Pantazopoulos, currently employed as B.C. Conservative pollster, and co-campaign manager

Earlier this week, Kevin Falcon met with his longtime friend Dimitri Pantazopoulos, long Stephen Harper’s Conservative party pollster, B.C. Liberal and Vancouver Non-Partisan Association pollster, who is currently employed by the surging B.C. Conservatives as that party’s pollster, and de facto co-campaign manager. As you may recall, it was Mr. Pantazopoulos who in British Columbia’s 2013 provincial election identified the 50 B.C. ridings that the B.C. Liberals could win — this at a time when B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark was mired at 26% in the polls, with Adrian Dix soaring at 49% voter approval. Indeed, on May 14, 2013, Christy Clark did, in fact, win the 50 seats Mr. Pantazopoulos had identified.

When Dimitri Pantazopoulos met with Kevin Falcon, Mr. Pantazopoulos told him …

“Kevin, not only will B.C. United be decimated at the polls on the night of October 19th, none of B.C. United’s candidates will win in their ridings, and that includes you. At the moment, Kevin, you are running a distant second to Dallas Brodie, the B.C. Conservative candidate and longtime resident within your Vancouver-Quilchena riding, while you continue to maintain your family home across the inlet in North Vancouver. You’re going to lose, and lose badly, an embarrassing and regrettable loss to be sure, but a most assured loss, and a humiliating end to your once promising political career in British Columbia politics.”

And with that piece of devastating news, Kevin Falcon’s decision was made.

The ironic aspect to the present British Columbia political circumstance, where John Rustad stands on the precipice of victory at the polls on October 19th, is that Mr. Rustad doesn’t even want to be British Columbia’s next Premier.

At 61 years of age, having celebrated his birthday on August 18th, Mr. Rustad believes he’s had his day in the sun — as British Columbia’s once upon a time B.C Liberal government Minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation, and Minister of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources. Not for this man from the hinterlands, the cut and thrust of electoral politics. Mr. Rustad simply wants to rest.

When John Rustad was unceremoniously dropped from the B.C. Liberal caucus on his birthday in 2022, for his antediluvian stand on LGBTQ issues, his vehement opposition to the SOGI 123 (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) programme, his contention that climate change is a hoax, his support of the anti-vaxx movement, and his adherence to any number of QAnon conspiracy theories, including wireless 5G as a root cause of COVID, John Rustad was only too happy to leave what he considered to be a “too progressive” BC United party.

When, some months, later — on Friday, March 31st, 2023 — John Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservative party, he expected that he’d been heading a conservative party better aligned with his alt-right values, and a provincial political party that in 2024 would likely secure only 1.92% of the vote, as the B.C. Conservatives had in the 2020 British Columbia provincial general election.

Colour John Rustad surprised and disappointed when that presumed outcome of his leadership of the B.C. Conservative party did not come to pass.

So, what does this hill ‘o beans all mean?

Well, there are a couple of issues to consider before we wrap today’s column.

According to an extensive polling of British Columbians from across the province that was conducted last evening, David Eby’s New Democratic Party finds itself in pretty good shape following Kevin Falcon’s resignation as B.C. United leader, with an expected win of 57 seats (a 10-seat majority) in the next (post election) session of the Legislature, to only 36 seats for John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives.

Given how Kevin Falcon came to define his B.C. United party as a fiscally conservative, yet socially progressive, political party, the thinking among the political cogniscenti is that the remaining adherents of B.C. United just can’t stomach John Rustad’s alt-right B.C. Conservative party and have headed over to the political party, the B.C. New Democrats, that better align with their values.

Next up: you know how we were discussing the power of the development industry to influence the state of politics in British Columbia? Well, listen up, cuz we’ve got a story of wit and (who knows how much) wisdom to tell you.

Turns out that the development industry is pretty darn happy with David Eby’s “we’re gonna build 100,000 units of housing in our next term of government” development ethos. Through Geoff Meggs — former Vision Vancouver City Councillor, former Chief of Staff to Premier John Horgan, and since 2005 the left’s political liaison to the development industry, and at present a senior housing development advisor to Premier David Eby and Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon — they’ve been only too happy to fund David Eby’s NDP re-election bid.

Who’da thunk, huh?

The development industry does not want John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives to win — gain 40 seats, sure, but hell’s bells, not win — so that John Rustad, who doesn’t for gawd’s sake even want to be Premier, might be replaced within the next year by someone who would, sure, be conservative, but a more pragmatic and palatable to the general public conservative.

Hell, if the antediluvian John Rustad were to win, the development industry would lose billions of dollars in revenue from the David Eby ‘transit-oriented projects’ that would be sidelined were the B.C. Conservatives to win majority government on Saturday, October 19th.

With an easily manipulated Brad West, Elenore Sturko or that youngster, Gavin Dew, installed as the next B.C. Conservative party leader — following John Rustad’s ouster —  should the development industry tire of David Eby come the next provincial election in 2028, they’d have their favourite ambitious, developer-friendly guy or gal in place to do their bidding.

Everybody wins, except us.

Today, we are 52 days away from knowing the outcome of the 2024 British Columbia provincial election, an election VanRamblings predicts will experience a record low turnout — as happened in the last Ontario election, when a paltry 43% of the population turned out to vote, by orders of magnitude the lowest ever turnout in any provincial election, ever.

What does David Eby’s New Democratic Party have in their favour that might contribute to victory come the evening of Saturday, October 19th? A ground game. There is no political party in Canada, and in B.C. in particular, that has a better, more sophisticated and vibrant Get Out the Vote (GOTV) mechanism.

VanRamblings has worked on dozens of federal and provincial NDP campaigns.

We can tell you that you don’t know the meaning of the word organized until you’ve worked on a B.C. New Democratic Party election campaign.

Not to mention, David Eby’s NDP are, by far, the best funded B.C. political party.

What do the B.C. Conservatives have in their favour?

We’ll get into that next week — when, unlike above, we promise to be kind.

#BCPoli | Polls, Polls and More Useless Damn Polls

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VanRamblings’ believes that Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on the positioning of the four main political parties in our province to be so much malarkey.

Unlike the Abacus poll we quoted yesterday that gives David Eby’s BC NDP a solid five-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservatives — which ran only 19 provincial candidates in the 2020 British Columbia election, with 35,902 votes cast across the province for candidates running with the party, securing a paltry 1.91% of the popular vote — yesterday’s Mainstreet poll gives the BC Conservatives a 3-point lead in the popular vote, well within the poll’s multi-point margin of error.

On Tuesday, VanRamblings suggested that the Mainstreet poll was little more than a push poll, designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast their ballot. Further, Mr. Maggi’s Mainstreet Research polling has consistently over the years undercounted support for John Horgan or David Eby’s BC NDP provincially, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, federally.

Further, the Abacus poll, unlike the Mainstreet poll, results were broken down by region, giving David Eby’s BC NDP an insurmountable nine-point lead across Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, well outside of the 3.2% margin of error …

Out of a potential British Columbia voting population of more than four million adults who are eligible to cast a ballot at advance polls this early October, or on Election Day, October 19th, Mainstreet’s survey interviewed only 962 respondents, employing wildly unreliable automated telephone interviews as Mainstreet’s sole source of information, without any reference whatsoever to voter intention.

Further, Mainstreet’s published survey results fail to break down respondent response by the area of the province where respondents live, be it in the Metro Vancouver region, on Vancouver Island, the Okanagan, the Interior or the North.

Now, as it happens, the BC Conservatives have in their employ Canada’s best Conservative pollster, Dmitri Pantazopoulos — about whom we will write another day. Only the BC Conservative election team, and leader John Rustad — and certainly not everyday British Columbians — will see the results of Mr. Pantazopoulous’ intricate and wildly reliable daily polling results, intensive nightly surveys of those who live in each of British Columbians’ the ridings Mr. Pantazopoulos has deemed — and  targeted — as winnable for John Rustad’s BC Conservatives, the 50+ ridings that would give Mr. Rustad the winning Legislative majority, and government over the next four years.


Dimitri Pantazopoulos (above) will play a key role in determining the outcome of the 2024 BC election

The role of a prescient Mr. Pantazopoulous in determining the outcome of 2024 British Columbia election is a column VanRamblings will save for another day.

#BCElection | Who Will Form Government Post October 19? | Who Knows?

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L-r, Premier David Eby;  Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC

One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.

The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.

Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.

Unless …


William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier

The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.

Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.

Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.

As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.

We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Party incumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.

The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.

Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.

Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …

See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …

#BCPoli | BC Conservatives On the Rise, While BC NDP, B.C. United & Greens Fall?

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Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll on British Columbia voter intention, above, must be considered a rogue poll, as the results vary wildly with the work of every other reputable polling firm that has been taking the temperature of British Columbia voters leading up to this autumn’s October 19th provincial election.

As published in the Vancouver Sun on March 18th ..

According to the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on voter intention, it appears Premier David Eby’s party has a sizable lead ahead of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United and John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, as well as the benefit of being the incumbent party. The NDP remains the party of choice for most voters when it comes to tackling key issues in B.C., despite most respondents saying they don’t feel the provincial government has met expectations when it comes to improving on the cost of living and health care access.

Every other reputable pollster weighing in on British Columbia voter intention find themselves in accord with the polling results published by Angus Reid.

Make no mistake, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad comes across as a nice guy, well-meaning, authentic, an ‘aw shucks down home fella’ you’d like to have over for Sunday dinner.

But here’s the rub for Mr. Rustad and his fledgling B.C. Conservative Party …

  • Mr. Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party has $346,000 in the bank with which to fight an election, while Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party — which has been peppering the airwaves with a (so far ineffective) multi-million dollar anti-David Eby, anti-B.C. NDP ad campaign, has $10 million in his pre-election war chest to fight the upcoming election — and David Eby’s BC NDP are fundraising like mad, with $12 million currently in the kitty to fight the upcoming provincial election;
  • Organization. The BC NDP has a finely-tuned, can’t be beat election machine, a grassroots riding-based campaign strategy dependent on thousands of volunteers signing up to help David Eby’s government gain re-election this upcoming autumn. B.C. United are not just well-funded they, too, have an experienced campaign team. Mr. Rustad became leader of the B.C. Conservatives on March 31, 2023, less than a year ago — believe us when we write that in addition to having no money to wage a winning campaign for office, the B.C. Conservatives do not have the campaign infrastructure necessary to wage a winning campaign for office;
  • 93 candidates. Each party will field 93 candidates for office this upcoming autumn. The B.C. NDP will run a tightly-controlled campaign for re-election, each of their candidates for office vetted to a fare-thee-well. The same is true for Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party, and Sonia Furstenau’s B.C. Green Party. Not so with John Rustad’s neophyte B.C. Conservative Party candidates for office. We’ll write more about the implications of untested candidates running for office tomorrow on VanRamblings.

As we’ve written previously, six and one-half months out from British Columbia’s autumn provincial election, approximately 4% of the British Columbia electorate are even remotely aware that there’s a provincial election on the horizon.

Let’s keep in mind that only 18% of British Columbia’s electorate tune into one or another of the various evening news programmes, read a newspaper  or otherwise keep themselves informed on what’s going on in our province. There was a time when we had an informed electorate, passionate about the place where they lived.

No longer.

Now, four per cent of the electorate represents 160,000 British Columbians, no small number that. But still. One hundred sixty thousand out of four million?

Hmmm.

We’ll have a much better idea as to how British Columbians feel about the state of the province in the early part of October, three weeks or so shy of the election.

In some sense the story will be told, too, coming out of the two election debates that will occur this autumn: one broadcast on all the television networks, the other on CKNW, when they hold their pre-election Leaders’ Debate. These debates, as we’ll write tomorrow, can have a dramatic impact on the outcome of an election.

More tomorrow.