Women comprise 51% of British Columbia’s population, and electorate.
As such, whether provincial, federal or municipal, political parties offering candidates seek to ensure fair representation of the candidates running on their slates.
In the 2024 British Columbia provincial election, approxiately 60 per cent of B.C. NDP candidates, 45 per cent of B.C. Green candidates and 25 per cent of B.C. Conservative candidates are women, heading into the October 19th election.
According to a a Sunday article published in the Victoria Times Colonist the online journal Equal Voice, which advocates for gender parity in provincial and federal elections and tallies up the nominees on its election tracker, notes that 42.5 per cent of MLAs elected in the last provincial election in 2020 were women.
Kimberly Speers, a University of Victoria assistant teaching professor in the School of Public Administration, said political parties in British Columbia need to ensure their candidates for office reflect the population the party is seeking to represent.
“Otherwise, they may face voters who do not see their needs and themselves reflected in the policies and faces of political party and will vote for the party who has made the effort,” she said.
According to Statistics Canada, women make up just over half of the 5.6 million people living in British Columbia, 2.85 million women versus 2.75 million men.
Ensuring a legislature or council effectively represents its population is critical for a well-functioning government and society, said Speers.
While women run for all political parties and have varying perspectives on how to govern, “the common trait is that they represent a group that has been underrepresented in positions of political power,” said Speers.
Women candidates for office are dramatically underrepresented on the slate of 93 candidates John Rustad’s Conservative Party of B.C. are offering to the people of British Columbia, which in 2024 must be seen as regressive, and a step backwards.
The lack of women candidate representation in the B.C. Conservative Party is a source of concern that must considered when casting your ballot, at either an advance polling station — which open this upcoming Thursday, October 10th — or on Election Day, just 13 short days from today, on Saturday, October 19th.
Do British Columbians Really Want to Elect an Anti-Vaxx Premier?
In a series of interviews conducted with the press, B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad has expressed deep concern about the COVID-19 vaccine — both Pfizer and Moderna — saying he regrets having had three COVID-19 shots, attributing a heart condition with which he was afflicted months later to the COVID shot.
In July of this year, John Rustad met with an anti-vax group that is suing Dr. Bonnie Henry.
He said he regrets getting “the so-called vaccine” and accuses Dr. Henry of using it for “control on the population.” pic.twitter.com/m2h3IHAyK0
Mr. Rustad is also on record as stating that should he become Premier of B.C., a first order of business for his B.C. Conservative administration would be to fire Dr. Bonnie Henry — who, it should be noted enjoys a 62 per cent approval rating — as British Columbia’s well-regarded Provincial Health Officer. Firing Dr. Bonnie Henry, who got us through the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, is that a course of action with which most British Columbians would find themselves in agreement?
According to a September 23rd Vaughn Palmer column in the Vancouver Sun …
He (Rustad) now regards the COVID mRNA shots as “a ‘so-called’ vaccine.”;
He (Rustad) wishes he had not been vaccinated.;
He (Rustad) thinks the vaccine mandate was about “control of the population.”
Rustad has been accused of harbouring crackpots. On the video, included in today’s VanRamblings column, “he sounds like one himself,” writes Palmer.
As the icing on the cake of the craziness and chaos that would follow the election of John Rustad as British Columbia’s 48th Premier, he states that his administration would be open to joining other jurisdictions in legal proceedings inspired by the Nuremberg Trials, aimed at prosecuting those deemed responsible for COVID-19 public health measures and vaccines.
The Nuremberg trials were held in Germany after WWII to hold to account the Nazi leaders responsible for the murder of 8 million Jews, and LGBTQ and disability communities. John Rustad equates Dr. Bonnie Henry with WWII Nazi war criminals.
Nuremberg 2.0advocates typically call for those who created, justified or enforced public health measures — including politicians, doctors, academics, journalists and police — to be jailed and even executed for “crimes against humanity.”
“Nuremberg 2.0,” an idea to hold Nuremberg-style trials to prosecute and execute political leaders and public health officials for bringing in COVID-19 restrictions, is big in anti-vaxxer and QAnon circles.
Timothy Caulfield, a Canada research chair in health law and policy at the University of Alberta who specializes in online misinformation and conspiracies, says “it’s horrifying” to hear a political leader “legitimizing and normalizing” any talk of a “Nuremberg 2.0.”
“This is dark, nasty stuff,” Caulfield told Press Progress. “They’re not talking about some kind of careful judicial process, it really is code for execution and retribution. That’s what’s at the heart of Nuremberg 2.0.”
Peter Smith, an investigative journalist and researcher with the Canadian Anti-Hate Network, says people who talk about Nuremberg 2.0 are typically fuelled by grievances about pandemic public health measures.
“It is a phrase that emerged during the pandemic and was supposed to be the title for these coming trials for ‘crimes against humanity’ that would be brought against doctors, politicians, police and more for enforcing and carrying out COVID-19 health restrictions,” Smith told the folks at Press Progress. “It is essentially accusing a large number of public and private individuals who acted during a health crisis of being on par with one of the worst campaigns of subjugation, humiliation and destruction in modern history,” Smith added, referencing Nazi atrocities during the Second World War.
A question: do you want taxpayer funds to go to compensation for the small rump group of British Columbia health workers who refused to get the COVID-19 vaccine to keep their patients safe, and further to fund a far-right-inspired government campaign to hold health officials, including Dr. Bonnie Henry and B.C.’s Minister of Health, Adrian Dix, “to account”? That’s what you’ll get if you elect John Rustad.
VanRamblings has known David Eby since he first arrived in town in 2007 to article with the grassroots and activist Pivot Legal Society, where he fought the good fight for the residents who reside on Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside.
In all the time we’ve known David — registering voters and getting the vote out in the 2009 provincial election, in his time as an activist Executive Director with the B.C. Civil Liberties Association, and working closely with David in his campaigns for provincial office in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020 — we’ve always been inspired by David Eby’s utter brilliance and command of the issues, his compassion and kindness, his ability to connect with people on a visceral level, his commitment to the public good, and for the welfare of everyone who has come to him for help.
Sadly, the David Eby we’ve known well for 17 years, and the David Eby who everyone who has worked with David knows so well and is so passionate about, has not been on display in the B.C. NDP 2024 campaign for office, as if somehow David is a lightning rod, and the campaign team wants to keep him under wraps.
What a terrible mistake the B.C. NDP campaign has made in “hiding” the David Eby those who care passionately about David know so well, and believe in David as the leader we know him to be, with all of our heart and conscience and utter devotion.
Today on VanRamblings, we’re going to introduce you to the David Eby we know well, and will suggest that it is David Eby, and David Eby alone, who will rescue the failed 2024 B.C. NDP campaign for office, that it is David Eby who will lead a 180-degree turnaround of the campaign, as the most inspiring and energizing presence on the hustings, a David Eby who many British Columbians will see for the very first time, a vigorous and tireless campaigner for the public good, in the sprint to the finish of a campaign that will conclude with victory on Saturday, October 19th.
First of all, something you may not know about David.
Our good Mr. Eby has a temper on him, and although not quick to anger, allow us to tell you from first-hand experience, you do not want to be on the receiving end of David’s anger — of course it is a directed and controlled anger, a good anger meant to redefine the circumstance in which one might find oneself, to inspire a change for the better.
In the lacklustre 2024 B.C. NDP campaign for office, we have not witnessed David’s anger — and, migawd, we should, we must — because the David Eby we know is right pissed offwith what an antediluvian, regressive John Rustad Conservative administration would mean for the people of British Columbia.
In two words, chaos and hurt.
In the final two weeks of the 2024 B.C. election campaign, let us all see more righteous and palpable anger from David Eby, anger that will cause British Columbians to sit up and take notice, and say …
“Hey, this guy’s passionate about creating a better British Columbia for our family. This David Eby fella, he’s a leader, the kind of leader we need in 2024, someone who is passionate about fighting for us, and is committed to making our lives better.”
We’ll tell you something else you may not know about David Eby.
David Eby does not suffer fools gladly, least of all the so-called leader of the regressive Conservative Party of British Columbia. In the third day of the current campaign that became obvious, when reporters asked the NDP leader to respond to an allegation made by John Rustad that educators were indoctrinating students, so much so that his government would ban 4,000 books currently available in British Columbia schools, “including pornography made available to Grade 4 students as a part of the province’s SOGI 123 programme,” a programme designed to support gender variant children enrolled in our public education system with compassion.
CBC’s Michelle Elliot’s interview with John Rustad, where he says pornography is being made available to students enrolled in B.C.’s public education system, as part of the province’s SOGI 123 programme.
David’s Eby response to John Rustad’s absurd remarks was a roiling amalgam of anger, incredulousness and risible derision, as he rolled his eyes, stating to reporters that he was unsure if he’d ever heard anything more preposterous stated by a political leader. Going forward, the 2024 B.C. NDP campaign must hear, and witness, more fiery and passionate responses from B.C’s NDP leader, and more rolling of his eyes at the nonsensical rantings of the leader of the B.C. Conservatives.
Now, something you already know about David Eby, the Premier of our province.
David Eby is a take charge kind of guy. We’ve seen that every day since he became Premier of British Columbia in November 2022.
Here’s a personal example we’ve experienced: In the 2017 British Columbia election campaign, VanRamblings as we’ve written previously worked the front desk in David Eby’s campaign office. One bright afternoon when David returned to the office following an hour of mainstreeting along West Broadway, from Macdonald to Alma, upon entering the premises David queried us as to how things were going. “Fine,” we said, to which David responded, “Raymond, I know you. You’ve got concerns. Spill. What’s going on? Give me the straight goods. C’mon now.”
We expressed to David that every second call we’d received that morning and early afternoon expressed a concern that although a constituent and supporter had ordered a David Eby re-election sign to be delivered, sometimes as long as two weeks previous, the signs had yet to arrive. David responded, saying, “Raymond, my car is out back. Load up the hatchback with 200 signs, and you and I will spend the afternoon delivering and putting up signs. I’ll get the list from Gala.”
In fact, the two of us spent three hours putting up signs. But we’re talking David Eby here. VanRamblings would put up a sign. David would frown, saying “Two signs, at the corner of the lot, one facing west, the other facing north, for maximum visibility.” And so it went. David Eby very much in control. 200 signs up in 3 hours, sign requests completely up to date, David Eby once again being the hands on, take charge candidate satisfied and energized. That’s the David Eby we know.
Let’s talk about the issues that David Eby is running on.
British Columbia’s Housing Shortage. David Eby, as the feet on the ground visionary leader of British Columbia, working with his 55-member B.C. NDP caucus, has developed a realistic, multi-faceted plan to build housing for …
Members of our vulnerable population living on the streets, unhoused, or in substandard, rat-infested SROs located on Vancouver’s DTES, and similar areas in Prince George, Victoria, Kelowna, Nanaimo, and elsewhere will find accommodation in dignified housing in David Eby’s next term in office;
Seniors who have found themselves poorly housed, or on the verge of eviction arising from the build, build, build ethos of developers will be afforded accommodation in dignified, and supported where necessary, housing where no resident will pay more than 30% of their income to be housed;
Individuals with incomes between $30,000 and $88,000 annually, where one hundred thousand units of co-op housing will be built across the province on federal or provincial Crown land, a place you would own collectively with your neighbours, where no housing co-op member would pay more than 30% of their annual income in housing charge, where vulnerable, low income seniors, and families would be housed in safety and comfort;
British Columbians earning an income between $88,000 and $254,000 annually, there’s the B.C. Builds programme, dedicated to the development of new homes for middle-income working people living in communities throughout British Columbia;
British Columbians who want to own their own homes, where the B.C. NDP would subsidize 60% of the purchase of a home for first time buyers, and 40% of the purchase price of a home for homeowners who wish to upgrade their housing, in both instances allowing the new homeowners to reimburse government over a 25-year period for the portion of the house purchase subsidized by the province.
David Eby’s government is committed to training and hiring 700 new doctors, and 1500 new nurses each year until every British Columbian has a family doctor, and where wait times for those entering hospital are reduced or eliminated.
David Eby is the man with the plan, running against a tired old, right wing ideologue, bereft of ideas, not on your side, with no action plan whatsoever.
On Thursday, David Eby announced the B.C. NDP’s public transportation programme, which includes an extension of the Millennium line to UBC; a light rail system to Squamish and Whistler; and a rapid bus system to the North Shore, to eventually be replaced by light rail transit or Skytrain, and much more.
In the sprint to the finish in Campaign 2024, David Eby will have to dramatically up his energy level, develop the fire in his belly style of campaigning that Justin Trudeau perfected in the 2019 and 2021 federal election campaigns, where Trudeau carried a flagging Liberal party campaign on his back, emerging in both instances with a substantial minority government.
The Honourable Thomas R. Berger, leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party in 1969.
There’s been some talk among the punditry that has suggested in 2024 David Eby and the B.C. NDP are running a losing 1969 Tom Berger campaign.
B.C. NDP leader Tom Berger in 1969 ran a progressive campaign for office, but was viewed by the public as that most hoary of things: an “intellectual”, his style of campaigning human scale and reasoned, but devoid of warmth and the signifying entertainment value that always defines a successful campaign for office.
When the 1969 election results came in late on the summer evening of August 27th, British Columbians had wholly rejected Tom Berger as B.C. NDP leader, awarding him only 18 seats — for a loss of four seats, including Mr. Berger’s own seat of Vancouver Burrard — in a 55-seat Legislature, instead re-electing the tired administration of Premier W.A.C. Bennett to a seventh consecutive term in office.
The David Eby VanRamblings knows will not, under any circumstance, allow his and our B.C. New Democratic Party campaign to falter and fail, and will in these final two weeks of Campaign 2024 turn on the jets to run a high energy, inspiring, populist campaign for office, a take charge campaign where David Eby will be louder, angrier, more pointed in his criticism of B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad, more visible and surrounded by thousands of supporters in ridings spanning the province, the galvanizing leader we know him to be and need him to be, imbued with the spirit and best interests of British Columbians front and centre in his campaign, rallying the citizens of our province in common cause to ensure going forward that there will be accessible and ready health care services for everyone, housing for everyone, a vibrant public transportation system, and a thriving green economy, the touchstones of the British Columbia New Democratic Party’s winning campaign for office in the 2024 British Columbia provincial election.
As of this writing, David Eby’s British Columbia New Democratic Party and John Rustad’s Conservative Party of B.C. are, according to the latest polling, in a statistical dead heat in their respective bids to form the next government in our province.
The 2024 British Columbia New Democratic Party (B.C. NDP) campaign has faced criticism for its perceived ineffectiveness and inability to connect with the broader concerns of British Columbians, in a campaign that has clearly not resonated with a broad swath of voters, leaving the B.C. NDP campaign in the doldrums.
Despite Premier David Eby’s personal appeal — which he emphasizes in campaign materials, with images of his family and messages of hope for future generations — the B.C. NDP campaign has failed to effectively counter the momentum that has been building for weeks for John Rustad’s upstart, unschooled B.C. Conservatives, failing to effectively respond to critical issues like the rate-of-inflation cap on rents, which Rustad has said a B.C. Conservative government would repeal and revoke.
Today on VanRamblings, we will seek to address one of the primary weaknesses of the B.C. New Democrat’s current campaign for office.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the B.C. NDP’s poorly designed and executed advertising strategy, and the B.C. NDP’sbroader inability to engage with British Columbians.
On Friday, we’ll offer some prescriptive fixes for the B.C. NDP’s failing campaign.
David Eby’s 2017 campaign office opening, attended by more than 400 constituents and supporters
Campaign offices located in a neighbourhood within the Riding
There was a time when the New Democratic Party was a grassroots party.
No longer, it seems.
In 2024, as a “cost saving measure” the B.C. New Democrats have chosen not to open easily accessible neighbourhood riding offices available to the public. Instead, the NDP campaign team made the wrong-headed decision to create campaign offices that would accommodate candidates running in six different ridings.
David Eby in attendance at his tiny “campaign office” — which he shares with 5 other NDP candidates
In 2024, David Eby shares a tiny, largely inaccessible and out of the way campaign office, a campaign office outside of the ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown NDP candidate Terry Yung, Vancouver-South Granville NDP MLA Brenda Bailey, Vancouver Quilchena NDP candidate Callista Ryan, Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP candidate Christine Boyle, and Vancouver-West End MLA, Spencer Chandra Herbert.
Seems the B.C. New Democrat brain trust arrived at the conclusion prior to the outset of the 2024 B.C. NDP campaign that John Horgan’s 2020 B.C. NDPonline campaign proved to be such a wild success — with the B.C. NDP electing 57 MLAs — clearly, an online campaignout of necessity, arising from the fact that in 2020 the world was in the throes of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, the prevailing wisdom:
“Hey, it worked once, and worked very well. Let’s try it again in 2024, and save ourselves some big bucks in the process, money we can pour into media buys.”
What tragic, non-thinking, utterly wrongheaded campaign destroying nonsense.
In case you were wondering senior B.C. NDP campaign folks, in 2024 we are no longer in the midst of a deadly pandemic.
Sure, COVID is still around, but for the most part, folks have stopped wearing masks, and getting together in enclosed spaces has once again become de rigeur.
Stalwart members of the New Democratic Party would relish the opportunity to get together with the friends they’ve made in their riding over the years — camaraderie and human contact counts for something, y’know. But the brain trust running the 2024 NDP campaign, well … they’ve got better ideas, it would seem. Alas.
In each of the four David Eby campaigns VanRamblings has worked on, in 2011 and 2013 managed by the incredible and monumentally-skilled Kate Van Meer-Mass, and in 2017 by the equally wonderful Gala Milne (no 2020 campaign manager required, arising from the pandemic), here’s how things worked, effectively and well.
We’ll use 2017 as an example. Gala Milne, as we say above, very effectively managed David Eby’s 2017 campaign for office. Danika Skye Hammond co-ordinated and inspired the 400 outside volunteers — who were out door knocking from early morning til 8pm, as well as those delivering pamphlets and other campaign literature, and arranging daily, well-attended burmashaves — while Chris did the same for the 200 inside volunteers, operating the phone room 9am til 9pm daily, responsible for ensuring David Eby signs were delivered four times a day, while overseeing inside volunteers.
In addition, there was a media team (social media, photo and videographers), a fundraising team, office staff, and a crew who kept the troops fed.
At David Eby’s campaign office opening in 2017, four hundred constituents and supporters attended at the campaign office, collectively with thousands of dollars in their pockets to donate to David’s campaign. The enthusiasm for David’s re-election was palpable — 400 people who would spend the next four weeks getting the vote out, and supporting David Eby’s re-election bid in any way the could.
in 2024, at David Eby’s out of the way campaign office opening, constituents were not invited to attend at the tiny space outside of the riding. Only the candidates, their spouses and their children, and campaign staff were allowed to attend.
What a godawful B.C. NDP campaign mistake, foregoing the invaluable and necessary opportunity to inspire constituents, and to raise thousands of dollars.
In 2011, 2013 and 2017, David Eby’s campaign office was a magnet for community participation in his election, and later for re-election.
You could feel the enthusiasm and good will from inside the campaign office wafting out into the street, and from there throughout the neighbourhood. Hundreds of people came by, dropped into the office, chatted, ate some of the food Susan Walsh prepared (Susan — whose husband Michael Walsh, the lead film critic at The Province for 40 years, passed on January 3rd this year — was told her services would not be required this year, a cruelty beyond all measure, in our estimation).
VanRamblings worked a 4-hour front desk shift midday Monday through Friday, and sometimes on the weekend, this in addition to attending burmashaves, going door knocking, delivering literature, and distributing David Eby campaign signs. David Eby’s campaign office was abuzz with activity at least 12 hours a day. Folks came in off the street to ask questions, to see if arrangements could be made to meet with David — such requests almost always accommodated.Constituents picked up their David Eby campaign sign, or two.
And most wonderfully of all, people came in off the street — even people who didn’t live in the riding — to drop off $200 in cash, or $500 in bills, which they were only too glad to hand over in support of the re-election of “that wonderful young man, David Eby.” Of course, as we together filled out all of the proper forms — campaign staff would have been apoplectic if we didn’t follow Elections B.C. donation guidelines — we must have raised five to ten thousand dollars each week of the campaign, just from folks walking in off the street.
This was grassroots, community-involved election campaigning at its very finest.
But not in 2024. No siree. The B.C. NDPcampaign team is saving money, don’tcha see, while destroying grassroots, riding by riding constituent enthusiasm for their candidates, where everything is done online.
We ordered two David Eby campaign signs 9 days ago. When they hadn’t arrived by last Thursday, we contacted the office (by e-mail, of course, because there’s no talking to real human beings in the 2024 B.C. NDP campaign), and here we are on Wednesday, October 2nd, and no David Eby signs for VanRamblings to put up.
Should the British Columbia New Democrats lose this election — which seems to be a real possibility — it will have occurred, at least in part, as a consequence of the arrogant and condescending decision by the senior B.C. NDP campaign team to “combine” campaign offices, rather than opening an accessible campaign office in each constituency, a maladroit decision of immense and regrettable proportion.
Politics is a people business. The B.C. New Democratic Party campaign for office in 2024 seems not to understand this fundamental principle of politics.
Premier David Eby rallies the troops | Yet another misstep in a failing 2024 BC NDP campaign for office
Premier David Eby and the British Columbia New Democratic Party are on track to lose the 2024 provincial election.
Whether the result on Election Night, October 19th, will allow the BC NDP the opportunity to save face by retaining 39 to 42 seats, or whether British Columbia’s hapless New Democrats will be wiped out on October 19th — leaving the party with a rump caucus of 25 electeds — is a story that can only be told 18 days from now.
John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of B.C., and the next Premier of British Columbia
In Part 1 of a 3 part series VanRamblings will publish this week on the sorry fate of one of British Columbia’s two main legacy political parties — which for the past 7 years has held government in our province — today VanRamblings will set about to explore the 15 or so ridings across the province the B.C. New Democrats are guaranteed to lose — consigning the party to an ignominious defeat — and provincial ridings that are currently on the bubble, leaning John Rustad Conservative.
We’re going to skip around a bit, but because losses for the B.C. NDP on Vancouver Island, long a New Democratic Party stronghold, will prove so devastating to the governing party — but not for much longer — let’s start on the Island, shall we?
You can reference detail about the devastation the B.C. New Democrats are about to experience of Vancouver Island, by clicking/tapping on this VanRamblings post .
To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the North Island candidates, click or tap here.
B.C. New Democrat Michele Babchuk, who won the seat in a John Horgan pandemic sweep in November 2020, will lose to physician Dr. Anna Kindy, who lost her ability to practice when Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry ordered that health care workers who had not been vaccinated for COVID-19 would not be allowed to practice medicine in the province. Dr. Kindy — a potential Minister of Health in a John Horgan government — led a delegation of 200 North Island residents to raucously protest outside B.C. Legislature, expressing their disdain for the “health” edicts of the B.C. New Democratic government. In 2024, it’s payback time.
Courtenay-Comox. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding over incumbent Ronna-Rae Leonard — who only won her seat by the slimmest of margins, in a traditional right-of-centre seat — on October 19th. Not for no reason has John Rustad been front and centre in the riding multiple times since the election kick off.
Victoria-Beacon Hill. Held by the B.C. NDP since 2005, incumbent Grace Lore, currently the Minister of Children and Family Development, is in a tight three-way race with Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, there’s a very real possibility / probability Mr. Thielmann could prove victorious on Election Night.
Ladysmith-Oceanside. Adam Walker, elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election, and booted from the party for undisclosed reasons in September 2023, is running in 2024 as an Independent, with the support of the Green Party. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a small business owner, with a degree in Political Science and Criminology. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win, allowing a probable victory for Mr. Fee. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.
To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Nanaimo-Lantzville candidates, click or tap here.
Crime and public safety are the issues that will see former BC NDP MLA for Chilliwack — in 2024, a celebrated law and order B.C.Conservative candidate — Gwen O’Mahony, win this riding in a walk on Election Night. Nanaimo-Gabriola remains safe for B.C. NDP incumbent and Minister Social Development and Poverty Reduction, Sheila Malcolmson — a bit of good news for Dippers.
That’s a possible / probable loss of five seats for New Democrats on Vancouver Island, maybe more — all but certain losses in at least three of those ridings.
Enough with the foofaraw. Time to get down to brass tacks.
The B.C. NDP are rock solid to lose six seats, from Cloverdale to Chilliwack.
Langley. A two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.
To wit: High profile B.C. Conservative Elenore Sturko will deny the B.C. NDP’s Mike Starchuk a second term representing Surrey-Cloverdale.
Langley. As we write above, a two seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats.
1.B.C. NDP incumbent Megan Dykeman will lose her Langley-Walnut Grove seat to B.C. Conservative candidate Misty Van Popta, a Municipal Councillor in the Township of Langley.
2.Incumbent B.C. New Democrat Andrew Mercier, Minister of State for Workforce Development, will be defeated on Election NIght by the B.C. Conservative candidate Jody Toor, who holds a double PhD in Doctor of Integrative Medicine and Doctor of Humanitarian Services with the Board Of Integrative Medicine.
The Fraser Valley is traditionally a very conservative region of our province. Such will prove to be the case in 2024, when B.C. NDP incumbent Pam Alexis, Minister of Agriculture and Food prior to dissolution of the Legislature, will be trounced by the B.C. Conservative’s Reann Gasper, a Fraser Valley real estate agent.
And, finally, while we’re taking a look at ridings along the south arm of the Fraser River: Chilliwack, where the B.C. NDP will lose both seats, with B.C. New Democrat incumbent Dan Coulter going down to defeat to B.C. Conservative candidate Heather Maahs, a well-respected Chilliwack School Trustee since 2008.
In the riding of Chilliwack-Cultus lake, the B.C. NDP’s Kelly Paddon is also on her way out, to be replaced by high profile, Indigenous B.C. Conservative candidate Á’a:líya (A’aliya) Warbus, who was born and raised in Stó:lō Territory, with deep family roots in politics and activism, as the daughter of former Lieutenant Governor of British Columbia Steven Lewis Point.
At least three probable losses on Vancouver Island, and six guaranteed losses for the B.C. NDP along the south arm of the Fraser River. At dissolution, the B.C. New Democrats held 55 seats in the Legislature. The loss of 9 seats would leave the B.C. NDP with 46 seats, one shy of a majority in the 93-seat B.C. Legislature.
And, heck, we’ve only just begun our exploration of ridings the B.C. NDP will lose.
Susie Chant, the one-term B.C. NDP incumbent in the North Vancouver-Seymour riding will lose her seat to B.C. ConservativeSam Chandola, an award-winning technology entrepreneur, come Election Night.
Janet Routledge will lose her Burnaby North seat to Michael Wu, a small business owner, and an Auxiliary Member with the RCMP who works with the Combined Forces Special Enforcement Unit. Mr. Wu speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese.
Let’s skip over to Vernon-Lumby.
Harwinder Sandu, who most unexpectedly won the Okanagan riding of Vernon-Lumby in 2020, in 2024 will be soundly defeated by the B.C. Conservative candidate in the riding, Dennis Giesbrecht, who brings to his run for office a lifetime of invaluable experience in the energy, forestry and ship building industries.
Thus far we’re up to a 12-seat loss for the B.C. New Democrats — and, heck, we’ve not written about the two additional Surrey seats that will be won by B.C. Conservatives on Election Night, and all of the seats along the north arm of the Fraser River, from the five Tri-Cities seats, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge East, all of which seats are on the bubble, leaning heavily in the direction of electing a swath of B.C. Conservative candidates to the B.C. Legislature.
In a column we wrote last week covering most of the Lower Mainland ridings, we wrote about the three ridings in Richmond currently held by the B.C. NDP, at least two of which will swing to the B.C. Conservatives on Election Night.
Prospects for a majority victory for David Eby’s New Democrats in the 2024 British Columbia provincial election look dire, indeed.
A generous count thus far suggests a 17-seat loss for the incumbent government, leaving them with 38 seats in the British Columbia Legislature.
Not all is lost: David Eby’s New Democrats will pick up three seats they’ve not held before, come Election Night: Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies.
Here’s what our sources in the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives are telling VanRamblings: at this point in time, given how the B.C. NDP campaign has fared up until today, and the momentum John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives have experienced the first week of the campaign, 18 days out from Election Day, VanRamblings’ sources in both mainstream parties tell us that the B.C. New Democrats will likely hold on to only 41 seats, for a 14-seat loss on Election Night.
There are an additional 16 seats that are on the bubble, we are told, that could go either way. VanRamblings’ sources in both political parties believe that 32 seats represents the floor for the New Democrats. Anything less than 35 seats for the B.C. NDP on Election Night, voters across B.C. can expect David Eby to tender his resignation as B.C. NDP leader, when he gives his concession speech.
VanRamblings’ sources in both parties believe the likely outcome on Election Night will allow the New Democrats to hold on to 39 to 42 seats.
The above said, a strong possibility still exists that the B.C. New Democrats could pull out a win on October 19th, securing 48 to 52 seats, by keeping Courtenay-Comox and Victoria-Beacon Hill in the fold, as well as Vernon-Lumby in the Interior, while retaining both Susie Chant’s seat in North Vancouver-Seymour, and Janet Routledge’s Burnaby North seat, with both Lisa Beare — B.C. NDP Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills — and Bob D’Eith retaining their Maple Ridge seats. Add to those numbers, B.C. NDP pick ups in Vancouver-Langara, Cowichanand Kootenay-Rockies, and to any seasoned observer, the 2024 British Columbia provincial election is far from decided 18 days out from Election Day.
Quitto Maggi’s Mainstreet Research poll, published on Monday, September 30, 2024
Projected seat count on Election Night, for all three B.C. political parties …
NEW @MainStResearch BC projection. Here are the results:
🔵 Conservatives: 54 seats, 45.7%.
🟠NDP: 39 seats, 41.7%.
🟢Green: 1 seat, 8.9%.
Chances of winning:
🔵Conservatives: 80.8%.
🟠NDP: 19.2%.
🟢Green: 0%#bcpoli
Tomorrow on VanRamblings we will write about why it is that a decent, hard working, incredibly skilled B.C. New Democratic government who mean well for our province, may go down to defeat to an unschooled crew of (far) right leaning folks who have no experience in government, and who will spend the first year and a half in the Legislature trying to figure out where the washrooms are located, never mind governing for the benefit of all British Columbians.
On Thursday, we’ll write a prescriptive column on what David Eby — in particular, because this election is turning out to be a referendum on David Eby’s governing style — and our beloved B.C. New Democrats can do to right the ship and claim victory on October 19th, or at least save the furniture with a showing in the forties.
In a conversation Sunday afternoon with our friend, architect and former Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Bill McCreery, he asked about why we’re such a smarty pants on why the B.C. NDP will lose the 2024 provincial election, and just where the heck are we getting the information we publish?
The answer: Initially our primary source was the Hotel Pacifico podcast featuring Mike McDonald — the knower of all things British Columbia politics, who has spent time in all 93 ridings across the province and knows each of these ridings intimately and well — Geoff Meggs, former Chief of Staff to Premier John Horgan, and no slouch himself when it comes to understanding B.C. politics, and the very excitable (we’ve loved that about him since 2017, when we saw him bouncing around the Legislature the day John Horgan’s government was sworn into power … although Mr. Zussman’s ever present enthusiasm seems to drive Mr. McDonald nuts), Richard Zussman, Global BC’s skilled and informed Legislative reporter.
In addition to the above, we’ve done our own research on the ridings we’ve written about, reading the local newspapers online, and more. We also listen to coverage of the provincial election on CBC’s morning broadcast, The Early Edition. We are just as addicted to Baldrey’s Beat, at 10:05am on CKNW’s Mike Smyth show. We also read all of Mr. Baldrey’s columns in various of our community newspapers.
We never miss Global BC’s Newshour, most particularly when Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman are talking about the election. Keith Baldrey and Richard Zussman, on Global BC’s Focus BC insist that Vancouver-Langara, Cowichan and Kootenay-Rockies will be pick ups for the New Democrats on Election Night.
And, finally, VanRamblings has our own well-developed and informed sources within both the B.C. New Democratic Party campaign for office, as well as the B.C. Conservative campaign, folks we speak with on an almost daily basis.
At age 74, we’re something of an old fogey and lack the energy we once did — for most elections we’ve written about in the past, 20 hour days for weeks on end was de rigeur to our approach to coverage … we’ve reduced that to six to eight hours a day now, although we’ve pulled an all-nighter or two this election cycle.
We’ve got lots we want to say, and to write, which we’ll do in the days to come.
VanRamblings’ friend and neighbour, raconteur and politico extraordinaire, Bill Tieleman — who we love with all our heart — expressed concern to us this past weekend about our contention that David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats will go down to defeat in the current election.
Why are we — a tried-and-true 61-year member of the NDP — writing so despairingly about the prospects of our beloved NDP? We suggested to Bill, why (in part, we’re sounding the alarm, another part arising in response to a current health issue that has recently come to the fore … time’s a wastin’, we suggested to Bill).
“You must forgive my penchant for optimism, despite daunting odds. We won a majority government in 1996, against a favoured, well-funded foe. So long odds don’t intimidate me at all. You may still be right in what you’ve been writing, but I continue to think the NDP’s several advantages will prevail in this fraught election.” Bill Tieleman, respected longtime political strategist, commentator and political pundit
From Bill’s lips to God’s ears. May all that is right and good prevail.
