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The University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, once again in 2013, will run their Election Prediction Market, having succeeded in 2009 in quite accurately predicting the results of British Columbia’s previous provincial election. For the duration of the 2013 election, the fine folks out at UBC will provide daily updates to the Globe and Mail, with their up-to-minute projection of popular vote share and legislature seat share predictions. VanRamblings will continue to provide you with links and graphics, although you may want to bookmark the Globe and Mail page.
Otherwise, it was a rather quiet day on the hustings on Wednesday, April 17th — so, without further ado then, we’ll just jump right in to the media coverage of Decision BC 2013 for the day.
Vancouver Courier. Andrew Fleming posits that we’ll see at least three new MLAs take their seats in the British Columbia legislature following May 14th, suggesting in his article that newly-minted Liberal candidate, multi-hyphenate doctor / lawyer / Rhodes Scholar, etc. Andrew Wilkinson remains an absolute lock to take Vancouver Quilchena, while the odds favour former BC Civil Liberties Executive Director David Eby in Vancouver Point Grey to defeat Premier Christy Clark, with Sierra Club BC Executive Director George Heyman set to take Vancouver Fairview away from physician and BC Liberal Minister of Health, Margaret MacDiarmid.
The Tyee. Meanwhile, Natascia Lypny encourages us to meet the youngest candidates vying for a seat in the legislature: a delivery driver, a bank staffer, a restaurant manager, and a grocer, viable candidates all.
With an average age of 24, BCNDP candidate for Langley Andrew Mercier, Green Party of BC Victoria-Swan Lake candidate Spencer Malthouse, Liberal candidate for Port Coquitlam, Barbara Lu, and BC Conservative candidate in Nanaimo Bryce Crigger (gotta love that ‘stache) are the youngest candidates from each of the four main parties in this provincial election.
GlobalBC / Glacier Media. Keith Baldrey writes that the NPD are favourites in 50 of the province’s 85 ridings, identifying 40 strong and 10 NDP-leaning ridings, 8 strong Liberal and 14 Liberal-leaning ridings, with14 toss-up ridings, while suggesting that Independents, incumbent Vicki Huntington in Delta South, and Arthur Hadland, in Peace River North will likely emerge triumphant election night.
Globe and Mail. Éric Grenier updates the ThreeHundredEight.com poll VanRamblings published on Tuesday, writing in BC Votes 2013 that …
“Adrian Dix’s New Democrats remain heavily favoured to prevail on May 14 … the New Democrats would take 48 per cent of the vote, the B.C. Liberals 30 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives 12 per cent, and the B.C. Greens 9 per cent. With such a large margin over the Liberals, the NDP should be able to capture between 57 and 73 seats to form a majority government. The Liberals would be reduced to between 10 and 27 seats, while as many as four independents could be elected.”
Bleak numbers for the Liberals, indeed, as Mr. Grenier suggests.
In their Day 2 wrap up story, titled “Confident Clark taking aim at NDP territory“, Justine Hunter and Ian Bailey cover Liberal leader Christy Clark’s day on the hustings. The story’s headline seems misleading, though, given that Clark spent most of her day in traditional Liberal territory, while NDP leader Adrian Dix spent the entirety of Wednesday encroaching on Liberal turf, visiting ridings throughout the traditionally unfriendly Fraser Valley.
For those of you who haven’t read it, the Globe and Mail’s Justine Hunter has written a standout piece on Adrian Dix that is well worth reading.
Georgia Straight. Editor Charlie Smith opines that housing as an issue is getting short shrift by the four main parties, reporting that the Greens pay the most attention, the NDP hasn’t released their platform position on the issue as yet, and the Liberals “brush over housing in their 84-page platform document.” Earlier in the week, Charlie posited five unusual scenarios that could yet make Decision BC 2013 a barn burner interest grabber — the first couple of days of the campaign have emerged as anything but. Interest oughta wax high, though, following the leaders debate (6:30pm – 8pm, April 29th) — which we hope will be more about substance than style.
Yolanda Cole interviewed $10/day Child Care advocate Sharon Gregson, who pretty much called the BC Liberals’ proposed child care registry useless, while The Straight’s Carlito Pablo reports that the Green Party of BC remains the only provincial political party that has as a tenet of their platform that they would legalize and tax marijuana.
Vancouver Sun. Reporter Francois Marchand interviews Ryan McCormick, a director of the Vancouver-based non-profit Safe Amplification Site Society (Safe Amp) - an organization dedicated to creating a permanent all-ages music and arts venue in Vancouver - as Safe Amp injects itself into Decision BC 2013 by calling for an overhaul of BC’s antiquated liquor laws.
In a Canadian Press story published on the Vancouver Sun website, Christy Clark is reportedly attempting to shore up support in bellwether ridings where the Liberals currently trail the NDP.
News from other places. In Andrea Klassen’s Kamloops This Week story, Kamloops-South Thompson BC Liberal candidate Todd Stone seems to be doing everything he can to distance himself from the BC Liberal label, with Klassen suggesting in her article that the argument for Stone’s Decision BC 2013 candidacy “sounds a lot like ‘Stone, not Liberal.'”
Castanet, the Interior online newspaper and magazine, reports that disgraced, now former NDP candidate for Kelowna-Mission Dayleen Van Ryswyk will run as an Independent, Twitter all agog with speculation that she could actually hurt the candidacy of Liberal incumbent Steve Thomson with her racist, intolerant views.
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The healthy advocates over at the BC Cycling Coalition urge you to bike to vote and exercise your pedal power on May 14th, suggesting that “through the simple act of pedaling to the polls, you can play your part in actively decreasing traffic congestion, while making our streets and neighbourhoods safer, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, saving time and money, all of which salutary effort will result in improving our collective health and well-being.” We’re putting our helmet on now, and heading out for a ride along the beach, all in preparation to bicycle to our polling station on E-Day.
BC Election 2013: What the Parties Were Up to Wednesday
What platform positions did the four main parties release on April 17th?
- The British Columbia New Democratic Party committed to freezing ferry fares while a newly-elected NDP government awaits the results of an NDP-mandated audit of the financially troubled company. BC NDP leader Adrian Dix also announced that an NDP government would invest $40 million in skills training and $100 million in a student grants programme, annually, as part of the NDP’s plan for jobs and growth.
Adrian Dix took the fight to Liberal Finance Minister Mike DeJong’s Abbotsford riding on Wednesday, where he NDP told supporters he felt Abbotsford West was an eminently winnable riding for the NDP in 2013.
You may click here to see the entire 2013 BC NDP candidate team.
- The BC Liberal party campaign: as we reported earlier Christy Clark spent most of her day shoring up support for her trailing party by spending time in Surrey, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Kamloops, before traveling further north in the late evening.
The Globe and Mail’s Justine Hunter asked the question, “What will happen to the B.C. Liberals if they lose?”
A “what if” scenario that VanRamblings has been told Ms. Clark has pondered herself in the days leading up to 40th provincial election.“What happens to the Liberals after the polls close at 8pm on May 14? It is treasonous talk, not out in the open. But if the governing party is reduced to a rump — a fate many in the party seemed resigned to — then their focus is on saving seats and resources to rebuild in the election aftermath. Liberal party headquarters is cooking up ways to win back voters. But those pessimists in the party who don’t see that succeeding are already trying to identify the likely survivors to decide who would best lead the coalition so that the NDP victory doesn’t last more than a single term. It is a reason that some candidates in the B.C. Liberal campaign seem to have distanced themselves from Ms. Clark. If her name appears at all on campaign signs, it is in small print. While Ms. Clark is focused on a comeback strategy, some in her party are running a parallel campaign: A comeback in 2017”.
You’ll find the entire BC Liberal team here.
- The BC Conservatives are pretty much off the radar in Decision BC 2013. We’re seeing no coverage by the mainstream media, apart from this call by provincial Conservative leader John Cummins to jettison the Pacific Carbon Trust, which he says is nothing more than a scam and corporate welfare system. One suspects that the BC Conservatives are running a stealth campaign in those Interior ridings where they think they’ve got a fighting chance at winning a seat in the legislature. Mainstream media coverage of Mr. Cummins and the BC Conservatives will likely improve after the April 29th leaders debate, with only two weeks to go from that date til election day.
You’ll find all of the BC Conservative candidates here.
- The Green Party of BC has found itself surprisingly successful in gaining coverage, most particularly because of the opportunity Andrew Weaver, running in Oak Bay – Gordon Head (a riding to watch election night), has to become British Columbia’s first elected Green Party member in the provincial legislature.
Green Party of BC candidates? Yep, they’re all here.
- The BC Conservatives are pretty much off the radar in Decision BC 2013. We’re seeing no coverage by the mainstream media, apart from this call by provincial Conservative leader John Cummins to jettison the Pacific Carbon Trust, which he says is nothing more than a scam and corporate welfare system. One suspects that the BC Conservatives are running a stealth campaign in those Interior ridings where they think they’ve got a fighting chance at winning a seat in the legislature. Mainstream media coverage of Mr. Cummins and the BC Conservatives will likely improve after the April 29th leaders debate, with only two weeks to go from that date til election day.
We’ll leave you with Global’s BC1 Decision BC 2013 coverage.
(For the latest VanRamblings election coverage, click on Decision BC 2013)
(For those of you who arrived here looking for coverage of last week’s Kitsilano Community Centre AGM — as sorry an example of untoward democratic engagement as you’re ever likely to witness — VanRamblings’ coverage of the KitsCC AGM may be found here. The Vancouver Courier’s Sandra Thomas has written about the KitsCC AGM, as well, her coverage of the delirious, anti-community meeting to be found here.)
Note: Coverage of Decision BC 2013 tomorrow will likely be somewhat more sparse than you’ve witnessed the first three days of the election cycle.
