Category Archives: BC Politics

#BCPoli | Election 2024 | Riding Breakdown Analysis | Vancouver Island

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In the 2024 British Columbia provincial election there are 93 ridings, six more than in the 2020 B.C. election, thanks to the redistribution recommendation of the Independent Electoral Commission which was charged to make voting in British Columbia fairer and more representative of the population of the province.

In British Columbia, there are 25 ridings in the Interior (the Okanagan and the Kootenays), 16 ridings across Vancouver Island, and 52 ridings across Metro Vancouver, reaching out into the Fraser Valley, and extending to Chilliwack.

In total, there are approximately 30 ridings that will tell the tale on Election Night,  October 19th. The outcome in these ridings will determine whether incumbent Premier David Eby’s New Democratic Party will hold onto government, or will be replaced by John Rustad’s insurgent Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Today, VanRamblings will focus on the Vancouver Island ridings in contention.

For the past couple of provincial elections Vancouver Island has proved to be a New Democratic Party fortress, with the party winning every riding on the Island. Following the October 19th election, we could witness a return to the days when a handful of Socred  / B.C. Liberal candidates held sway in five or six Vancouver Island ridings.

VanRamblings will publish three additional riding analysis columns covering the Interior and the North, a good portion of Metro Vancouver (focusing on Vancouver / Burnaby / Richmond / Delta / New Westminster / Surrey), and a final riding by riding analysis column covering the Tri-Cities, the north side of the Fraser River, Langley, and into the Fraser Valley through to Chilliwack.

Today, VanRamblings is focused on the Vancouver Island ridings that could allow David Eby to hold government, or thrust John Rustad into the Premier’s chair.

Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention in Election 2024

(Click on the underlined text for more information on the candidates running in the riding)

  • Victoria-Beacon Hill . Held by former B.C. NDP leader / Finance Minister Carole James from 2005 to 2020, upon resigning for health reasons, popular Victoria City Councillor Grace Lore ran in her stead in the 2020 B.C. election and won. During her first term, Ms. Lore’s four-year-old son was diagnosed with a brain tumour, which saw his mother cut back on some of her political activities in the riding, also gaining her family much sympathy and support. Upon her son’s return to health, Grace Lore was appointed as the Minister of Children and Family Development, a job she has excelled at, gaining much recognition for competence in the post, as well as for her caring and compassion. Ms. Lore’s challengers in 2024: Green Party of B.C. leader Sonia Furstenau, who moved from her Cowichan riding after redistribution, and B.C. Conservative candidate, Tim Thielmann. According to the most recent internal party polling, this will be a tight three-person race, with the very real possibility that there could be as little as half a percentage point in the vote separating the winner from the two politicos who fail to secure victory on the evening of October 19th.

  • Ladysmith-Oceanside . Adam Walker was elected as the NDP candidate in the riding in the 2020 B.C. election. For reasons that have never been revealed, Mr. Walker was removed from the NDP caucus on September 18, 2023, and since that date has sat as an Independent. Mr. Walker is running for office in 2024 as an Independent, with the endorsement of the Green Party, and the on the ground support of the party’s supporters. Stephanie Higginson, a past president of the B.C. School Trustees’ Association, is the B.C. NDP candidate. The B.C. Conservative candidate, Brett Fee, is a relative unknown. There’s also a second Independent candidate, Lehann Wallace, who is seeking the seat. The outcome in the riding is unpredictable. Ordinarily, the riding would be solidly NDP, but the candidacy of Adam Walker throws a spanner into NDP expectations for a win. This one’s gonna be a nailbiter come election night.

  • Courtenay-Comox . Both Courtenay-Comox and North Island are in the federal riding of North Island-Powell River, where Aaron Gunn — whose claim to fame was being removed from the B.C. Liberal party leadership race in 2021 for being too far right — is the federal Conservative Party candidate. In 2017, Ronna-Rae Leonard — who is running for re-election in 2024 — won Courtenay-Comox by a hair’s breadth. For the previous two decades, the riding had been a B.C. Liberal stronghold. With support for the Green Party in the basement, political pundits suggest that Courtenay-Comox will be a tight two way race, with B.C. Conservative candidate Brennan Day set to win the riding come October 19th. Not for no reason was John Rustad front and centre in the riding on the opening day, and again on Sunday for a big rally, of Election 2024.

  • North Island. As far as North Island is concerned, the riding oughta be another pick up for the B.C. Conservatives, their candidate physician Anna Kindy, who was an organizer with the Trucker Convoy, who brought hundreds of her future (anti-vaxx) constituents to the B.C. Legislature to protest Health Minister Adrian Dix, and Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry’s edicts on how to fight COVID. In a change election, the pundits’ smart money is on Dr. Kindy to put the riding in the win column for the B.C. Conservatives — who will fire Dr. Henry as a first order of business should they form government.

  • Saanich North and the Islands. B.C. Liberal from 1991 to 2013. A bare NDP victory in 2013, with B.C. Green Party candidate, Adam Olsen — who is not running again in 2024 — securing victory in 2017 and 2020. With former Islands Trustee Rob Botterell running with the Greens, lawyer David Busch with the B.C. Conservatives and Sarah Riddell, elected to Central Saanich City Council in 2022, the B.C. NDP candidate — a riding that has voted Conservative federally for decades — it’s anyone’s guess as to the outcome of this tight three way race come election night.

The 11 remaining Vancouver Island ridings oughta vote solidly NDP come election day. C’mon back tomorrow for more riding analysis, as we move to the Interior and the North, after which we’ll analyze Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | An Alternative Perspective on Election ’24 | The Hotel Pacifico

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Today on VanRamblings, a departure from our usual ramblings, and instead an interview with Premier David Eby, conducted by the folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast, the inimitable and skilled purveyors of all things British Columbia politics: former 2013 Christy Clark B.C. Liberal campaign manager, Mike McDonald; former Globe and Mail B.C. Legislative reporter, Kate Hammer; and Geoff Meggs, the former Chief of Staff to BC NDP Premier, John Horgan.

On their most recent edition of Hotel Pacifico, the co-hosts of British Columbia’s most informed political podcast hold Premier David Eby’s feet to the fire, for a good half hour, the remainder of the hour-long podcast dedicated to informed punditry on all of the issues that will impact on the 2024 B.C. provincial election.

Next week, the derring pundit trio introduce B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad to their listeners, and all of us folks with a passing interest in politics.


Hotel Pacifico podcast hosts / pundits extraordinaire: Mike McDonald, Kate Hammer and Geoff Meggs

Note should be made before we get to Hotel Pacifico’s David Eby interview that Mr. Macdonald, Ms. Hammer and Mr. Meggs will broadcast daily, Monday to Friday, for 18 consecutive weekdays beginning Monday, September 23rd (two days after the Writ is dropped) in the lead up to the October 19th election, on the machinations of the 28-day B.C. campaign for government, a must-watch, must-listen-to (the podcast available on YouTube, and your favourite Apple or other podcast app, as well as on Spotify and other media platforms) endeavour.


The Hotel Pacifico hosts’ podcast interview with B.C. New Democratic Party Premier, David Eby.

#BCPoli | BC United Leader | The Personal, Joyful Tragedy of Kevin Falcon

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Bliss, happiness, joy, a life fulfilled, family as all important, and a driving political force: BC United leader Kevin Falcon sitting on the porch of their home with wife Jessica and their two daughters

Kevin Falcon is one of the most driven, successful and accomplished tranformational figures to grace the British Columbia political landscape this century.

The former Deputy Premier of British Columbia, Kevin Falcon is generally regarded as one of our province’s most successful ever Finance Ministers — during his tenure in that portfolio, providing necessary services and economic growth to serve the interests of all British Columbians — an outstanding Minister of Health — yet another portfolio in which he far exceeded expectation, emerging as a groundbreaking defender of our health care system —  and a builder in the mould of former Socred Premier, W.A.C. Bennett, Kevin Falcon in his lengthy, storied tenure as British Columbia’s Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure — without Kevin Falcon, those of us living across Metro Vancouver would have no Canada Line today, with ridership levels of more than 170,000 commuters each day, were it not for the across the aisle, non-partisan, visionary leadership of Kevin Falcon.

The current leader of B.C. United — the official opposition in the British Columbia Legislature, to Premier David Eby’s British Columbia New Democratic Party — Kevin Falcon is a generational British Columbia political leader who has long served the best interests of the citizens of our province well, with dedication and distinction.


Jessica Elliott and Kevin Falcon were wed on Saturday, July 25, 2009, in a low-key, back yard ceremony

For all his success as a Minister of the Crown, Kevin Falcon — for almost a half century — was a confirmed bachelor, leading a lonely — if directed — life of service, unloved, unseen, unappreciated and little known — feeling deep within himself that he was, perhaps, undeserving of love. Upon meeting Jessica Elliott, a substitute teacher working on her Master’s degree, he fell head over heels in love, and much to his utter surprise and delight,  the object of his deep affection and love, fell just as deeply in love with him as he was with her, as remains the case to this very day.

Life changed forever — Mr. Falcon would contend, if you were to ask him, for the much much better — upon his marriage to Ms. Elliott, now Ms. Falcon, the personal, joyful “tragedy” of Mr. Falcon’s marriage to Ms. Elliott compounded only months later by the birth of his daughter, Josephine, now 14 years of age, and in 2012 with the birth of his second child, daughter Rose, all of 11 years young.

With the birth of newborn Rose, Kevin Falcon — now and forever, a changed man, a family man whose primary priority was now the happiness and welfare of his wife Jessica, and their beloved young daughters — told the members of his B.C. Liberal caucus that he would not run for re-election in his long-held Surrey-Cloverdale riding, in the then upcoming 2013 British Columbia provincial general election.

As a dedicated family man — his life revolving almost totally around his wife, and two daughters —  Kevin Falcon did not forego contribution, as he took on a number of volunteer roles with non-profit organizations, including the Canuck Place Foundation, Lions Gate Hospital Foundation and the Streetohome Foundation.

From that date in 2013 through until February 5, 2022, upon crossing the 50% threshold required to win the leadership of the B.C. Liberal party — which he did on the fifth ballot —  Kevin Falcon had remained out of politics, when in 2013, he joined Vancouver-based Anthem Capital as their Executive Vice President.

Following Mr. Falcon’s win, Andrew Wilkinson — who had led the B.C. Liberals to ignominous defeat in the 2020 British Columbia election, his campaign for office dogged by allegations of lack of leadership, and anti-LGBTQ / anti-vax / anti-woman / eugenics sentiment of then Chilliwack-Kent B.C. Liberal candidate Laurie Throness — formally resigned as an MLA to free up his Vancouver-Quilchena seat  for Mr. Falcon. A by-election for the riding was called on April 2, 2022. Mr. Falcon won the by-election, and was elected riding MLA, taking his seat in the Legislature.

Perhaps the most transformative change western culture has experienced in the past two decades has arisen as a consequence of the critically important, the vital, the fundamental, the pivotal and the joyous, indispensable role men have now come to play as involved, utterly essential fathers in the lives of their children.


Clockwise from the top left: Scott Andrews, senior consultant at Earnscliffe Strategies; Derrick O’Keefe, journalist with Richochet Media; Gavin Dew, BC Conservative candidate for Kelowna-Mission, with his lovely wife, Erin, and their beautiful daughter and young son;  and Stephen von Zychowski, President of the Vancouver District & Labour Council, with daughter, Coraline (who he loves with all his heart).

The Kevin Falcon of 2024 is very much not the Kevin Falcon of 2001 thru 2013.

The Kevin Falcon of today is more forward and ‘future thinking’ than the Kevin Falcon of old — the pre-having-a-family Kevin Falcon — the Kevin Falcon we thought we all knew, but apparently did not, and the Kevin Falcon the B.C. Liberal party elected as the redemptive leader of the aimless, perhaps too regressive, ‘out of touch with the times’ B.C. Liberal party of 2022, the centre-right B.C. political party that had been so unceremoniously defeated in the 2020 B.C. election.


BC United leader Kevin Falcon, walking his beloved, cherished daughters, Rose & Josephine, to school

Today’s VanRamblings constitutes the first of a two-part series on the B.C. United leader, the second part of the series expressing why Kevin Falcon and B.C. United find themselves in the doldrums politically, seemingly on the verge of political oblivion come the evening of Saturday, October 19th, why the newly progressive, forward-and-future-thinking, newly-minted B.C. United leader believed it was of critical importance to excise a backward thinking, neanderthal member of the B.C. Liberal caucus — which is to say, current B.C. Conservative party leader, John Rustad, who Mr. Falcon could just not stomach — and the impact that decision has had on Mr. Falcon’s personal and political fortunes, and on the fortunes of the British Columbia political party he heads …  but for how much longer?

#BCPoli | B.C. Conservative Leader Not the Aw Shucks Guy He Bills Himself As

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John Rustad, the ‘climate change denying’ (transphobic) leader of the upstart B.C. Conservative party — destined to become, either, British Columbia’s next Premier, or at the very least form the official Opposition in the next session of B.C.’s Legislature — portrays himself as an ‘aw shucks’ kind of guy, a ‘man of the people’ who hails from the hinterland, someone who has your best interests at heart, not to mention, a democrat of the first order, and the furthest thing you could possibly imagine from a died-in-the-wool autocrat, a detestable top down kind of fella.

Don’t you believe his ‘aw shucks’ persona for a second.

John Rustad — long a Cabinet Minister in Gordon Campbell’s and Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberal Party — is very much the autocratic / ‘my way or the highway’ kind of leader of the once moribund, but now seemingly thriving, BC Conservative party.

If Alec Lazenby’s PostMedia article published in the Vancouver Sun yesterday is to be believed — and who is going to question Mr. Lazenby’s well-searched, and well-sourced article? — as the headline of the article reads, B.C. Conservative constituency executive resigns as controversy swirls over party’s nomination process …

“In its haste to nominate 93 candidates in time for October’s provincial election, the B.C. Conservative party has angered some rank-and-file members by bypassing grassroots decision-making.

Last week, the president of the party’s Vernon-Lumby association — in charge of raising money and selecting a candidate for the riding — resigned after rumours that party leader John Rustad planned to parachute former federal Conservative hopeful Kevin Kraft into the riding.”

Mr. Lazenby’s article goes on to state …

“Last week, it was revealed the party had held discussions with former B.C. Liberal leadership contestant Gavin Dew about running in Vernon-Lumby, before ultimately deciding to place him in Kelowna-Mission after ousting Alexandra Wright as that riding’s candidate.”

In point of fact, Gavin Dew refused John Rustad’s entreaty to run in the Vernon-Lumby riding, as he makes his home — with his wife, former Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Erin Shum, and their two young children — in the south Okanagan city of Kelowna.

The next shoe to drop?

Gavin Dew, a one-time hopeful leader of the BC Liberal party was offered the BC Conservative seat of Kelowna-Mission, following the unceremonious ouster of longtime, loyal conservative Kelowna activist Alexandra Wright — up until Mr. Dew’s latter day ascension as a newly-minted BC Conservative candidate — the once-upon-a-time, but no more, elected by the constituency association to become their local BC Conservative candidate for Kelowna-Mission in the coming provincial election.

Is unhappiness with how John Rustad runs the BC Conservative party limited only to the south Okanagan Vernon-Lumby and Kelowna-Mission constituencies?

Nope. According to Mr. Lazenby …

“On June 7, Kari Simpson, the vice-president of the party’s Langley-Abbotsford association, asked the B.C. Supreme Court to cancel a nomination meeting scheduled for the next day.

Simpson’s complaint centred on party president Aisha Estey threatening to remove the local association’s board members if they didn’t delay the meeting by a week.

There is such a furore within the BC Conservative party, and its membership, that a cadre of party members have called on John Rustad to resign as party leader.

More recently, Mr. Lazenby’s article reads, “the party has had to respond to a group calling itself a “grassroots organization of B.C. Conservative supporters,” which put up a website calling for the firing of John Rustad over his appointment of candidates who were members of other parties, such as recent B.C. United defector Teresa Wat in Richmond-Bridgeport and former NDP MLA Gwen O’Mahoney in Nanaimo-Lantzville.”

Rob Shaw, in an article published in Business in Vancouver on Monday, writes …

“There’s a movement afoot within the BC Conservative party to fire leader John Rustad.

Some party members have been receiving a letter that accuses Rustad of “diluting” the Conservative brand by accepting floor-crossing BC United candidates, as well as candidates previously associated with the BC NDP.

Disgruntled BC Conservative party members write on their hastily published Fire John Rustad website … “We are writing to you today to raise the alarm about John Rustad’s recent welcoming of pro-Beijing and former BC Liberal MLA, Teresa Wat, into the BC Conservative Party with no regards for the voices of grassroots members,” it reads.

“We are a grassroots organization of BC Conservative supporters who have been around long before John Rustad’s appointment as leader, and will be around long after he’s gone.

“While we continue to support the party and look forward to forming government, we must put a stop to John’s diluting of our party.”

On March 26th of this year, VanRamblings wrote about the “bozo eruptions” that would most assuredly hinder the BC Conservative party from gaining government post the October 19th British Columbia provincial election.

Since that date, the BC Conservative party has jettisoned several nominated candidates over social media posts, including Esquimalt-Colwood hopefuls Jan Webb and Dr. Stephen Malthouse of Ladysmith-Oceanside, both who falsely claimed COVID-19 vaccines make you shed spike proteins and could make you magnetic.

Other BC Conservative candidates have left quietly, such as UFC fighter Jason Day of Columbia River-Revelstoke who made comments in May on social media that accused the World Health Organization of wanting to “achieve world government” by removing “from the minds of men, their individualism, loyalty to family traditions, national patriotism and religious dogmas.”

Constituency nominated BC Conservative Kyle Schell was recently replaced by John Rustad with Tony Luck in the riding of Fraser-Nicola, where Mr. Luck will go up against popular, longtime BC United MLA, Jackie Tegart.

The question arises: Are the wheels coming off the BC Conservative campaign bus, even before the provincial election campaign begins in earnest following the dropping of the Writ on Saturday, September 21st?

In an article published in the Burnaby Now, Global BC Legislative reporter Keith Baldrey writes …

The B.C. Conservatives, a moribund party for decades, is leading all parties with 81 people named as candidates, in the 93 ridings that will be up for grabs this October.

The NDP is not far behind, with 74 candidates nominated or named so far and another 13 people in the process of becoming one.

As for both the B.C. United and B.C. Green parties, given that they’re having a difficult time finding candidates to fill the 93 open slots, both parties will likely install party or caucus staffers as candidates to fill out their roster, if they need to.

Employing his autocratic style, rather than adhere to democratic engagement and allow ridings to nominate the local candidates of their choosing, instead Mr. Rustad has chosen to appoint his “preferred” BC Conservative candidates, thereby squelching community and local riding association input into who these local riding association members believe will best represent their interests in Victoria.

Sad that. Not to mention, anti-democratic and bullying.

But that’s the BC Conservative party heading into 2024’s B.C. provincial election.