L-r, Premier David Eby; Kevin Falcon, BC United; John Rustad, BC Conservatives; Sonia Furstenau, Green Party BC
One month from today, on Saturday, September 14th, Premier David Eby will visit the Lieutenant Governor, the Honourable Janet Austin, and ask her to dissolve the Legislature and arrange for a Saturday, October 19th B.C. provincial election.
The latest compilation poll from 338.com has David Eby’s BC NDP, and John Rustad’s surging BC Conservatives in a statistical dead heat.
Of course, we’re still 67 days away — which is to say, a lifetime in politics — from knowing the outcome of the October 19th B.C. provincial election. All indications at this point suggest the coming election will be hard fought, the results close.
Unless …
William John Bowser, the 17th Premier of British Columbia & last elected Conservative Party Premier
The BC Conservatives sweep the election, riding on the popularity coattails of federal Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, causing not just a wave election, but a tsunami of support for novice party leader John Rustad, resulting in a Conservative Party of British Columbia forming majority government in the province for the first time since 1915, when William John Bowser swept to power for a near one-year period, from December 15, 1915 to November 23, 1916.
Here’s the bottom line: the coming election will be hard fought, it’ll be a tight race for government between David Eby’s well-funded BC NDP, and the B.C. Conservatives (now, surprisingly) well-organized campaign, the latter about which we will write next week.
Chances are that Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United will be all but wiped out, although some polls have B.C. United winning as many as six seats.
As for the Green Party: leader Sonia Furstenau is running in the riding of Victoria Beacon Hill, currently held by Grace Lore, Minister of Children and Family Development, the riding held by former BC NDP leader Carole James from 2005 through 2021, when Ms. James resigned from government for health reasons.
We predict Sonia Furstenau will lose in Victoria Beacon Hill. Well-respected B.C. Green Party incumbent Adam Olsen has indicated he will not run for re-election.
The B.C. Green Party post October 19th could be no more. Sad. But there it is.
Over the course of the next month, we’ll cover the coming B.C. election’s pre-Writ period — for instance, we intend to write about the closely fought races that will occur in the new provincial ridings of Vancouver-Yaletown, and Vancouver-Little Mountain — while delving into Vancouver municipal politics and the sorry state of Ken Sim’s ABC Vancouver civic party, what’s going on federally with Justin Trudeau’s beleaguered federal Liberal Party, and Pierre Poilievre’s ‘certain to form government’ post the 2025 federal election Conservative Party (we’re not a big fan), while addressing any number of other topics which catch our fancy.
Want to know what’s going on in federal politics? You’ll want to watch …
See you here tomorrow, and often we hope after that, and for the next 67+ days …
