These past 30 days and more have been confusing, frustrating, exhilarating and, from time to time, just a little hopeful.
On May 2, 2011, Canadians go to the polls to elect the 41st Canadian Parliament. At dissolution, on March 30th, the Conservative government held 143 seats, the Liberals 77, the Bloc Québécois 49, and the NDP 37.
Although the various polls released in recent weeks by Harris-Decima, EKOS-iPolitics and Nanos have suggested everything from a Conservative or an NDP majority (& the obliteration of the Bloc), to another Conservative minority government with the NDP (or the Liberal party) in the role of official opposition, pundits and prognosticators alike won’t know what the face of Canadian politics will look like until about 10 p.m. Monday night.
The folks at the Election Prediction Project have developed a methodology that has, in the past, fairly ably predicted federal riding outcomes across the country. The graphic below offers EPP’s seat projection for the 2011 federal election. Click on the graphic for a detailed provincial breakdown …
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Meanwhile, the folks at ThreeHundredEight.Com are being a tad more generous to the NDP, offering a Canadian seat breakdown suggesting that the Conservatives will elect 143, with the Liberals 60, NDP 78, and Bloc 27.
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Really, who can honestly predict the outcome of Monday’s federal election?
Whether the NDP garner 48, 61, 78, 108 or 157 seats, or the Conservatives manage their long sought after majority, the outcome of this suddenly exciting 2011 Canadian election will have historical significance going forward, and suggests to many the emergence of a two-party system, with one party on the centre-right and one on the centre-left.
Election coverage begins at 7 p.m. in British Columbia, when the polls close. If you didn’t get around to voting at an advance poll, make sure you, your eligible family members, your friends and your neighbours get out to your local polling station on Monday, and exercise your franchise. You have the very real opportunity to participate in history.
