Tag Archives: mike bernier

#BCPoli | Ridings in Contention in the Interior, the North & the Kootenays

BC Election 2024, BC Politics, BC Votes 2024, Canada, canadian politics, Essay, News, Politics, , , , , , , , ,

With the 2024 British Columbia election now underway, several key ridings in the Interior of the province, including in the Okanagan, the Kootenays, and northern British Columbia look to play pivotal roles in determining the overall outcome.

These regions are historically less urbanized, with a mix of rural and resource-based economies, making them more politically diverse. The B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP), the resurgent B.C. Conservative Party, and a handful of high-profile Independents, including former B.C. United MLAs, are all vying for influence.

The B.C. Conservative Party, under leader John Rustad, is expected to make significant gains, particularly in the more conservative and rural areas of the province.

The party has capitalized on growing discontent with both the B.C. NDP government and the now virtually defunct B.C. United.

With Rustad steering the party towards a platform that resonates with socially conservative and populist voters, the B.C. Conservatives could emerge as the dominant opposition in the northern and Interior ridings.

In regions like the Okanagan and the Kootenays, where small-c conservative values have a strong foothold, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to gain traction.

In ridings such as Peace River North and Peace River South, long-time former B.C. United MLAs Dan Davies and Mike Bernier, respectively, are now running as Independents.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River North candidates, click here.

These ridings, which have traditionally voted conservative, will see fierce competition between these Independents, and the B.C. Conservative candidates.

If the vote splits between Independent conservatives and the B.C. Conservatives, it could allow the B.C. NDP to secure an unexpected victory — if they were running a candidate in either riding, which as of this writing they most decidedly are not. The B.C. NDP must figure it’s a lost cause.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Peace River South candidates, click here.

As we say above, former B.C. United MLAs running as Independents could significantly impact the political dynamics in their respective ridings.

These candidates carry local recognition and established track records, but the collapse of B.C. United has left a vacuum that both the B.C. Conservatives and NDP are seeking to fill. The presence of high-profile Independent candidates, such as Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North, and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, could lead to a fragmentation of the right-leaning vote.

Mike Bernier, for example, has deep roots in Peace River South, and his decision to run as an Independent is likely to retain a significant portion of his previous support. However, he faces competition from a growing B.C. Conservative presence in the area. Similarly, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North may siphon votes away from the B.C. Conservative candidate, potentially paving the way for a closer contest with the B.C. NDP.

Before we leave the North, let’s take a look at …

Bulkley Valley-Stikine. The Stikine has been in the NDP column since 2009 with Doug Donaldson. Prior to 2009, Bulkley Valley-Stikine had been held by Dennis McKay of the B.C. Liberals. It’s the smallest riding in the province by population, and the largest by geography. The NDP’s Nathan Cullen is the MLA for the riding, which he won handily in 2020, following a 15-year stint as the shadow Finance Critic for the federal New Democratic Party.  As was the case in 2020, Rod Taylor, the head of the Christian Heritage Party, is running again; generally, he receives about 10% of the vote. Although not announced as of this writing, word is that the B.C. Greens will run an Indigenous candidate who has been active in the anti-pipeline movement. Stir that all around, and  Bulkley Valley-Stikine could very well turn into a horse race. One to keep an eye on.

Skeena. Pair this riding with Bulkley Valley-Stikine and this could be a pick up for the NDP, now that Ellis Ross — who had held the riding for B.C. United — has jumped to the federal Conservatives, where he’ll run as a federal candidate in the Skeena riding. Sarah Zimmerman who has deep roots in Skeena, and currently sits as an elected Terrace City Councillor and was the former Executive Director of Communications for Coast Mountain College is considered to be a very strong candidate in the riding. Expect David Eby to spend time in both ridings, to secure two victories in the North.

In the Okanagan, where former B.C. United candidates Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre), Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland), and Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) are now running as Independents, the political landscape is equally complicated.

The Okanagan is traditionally conservative, but the vote-splitting between Independents and B.C. Conservative candidates could offer opportunities for the NDP, particularly in historically competitive ridings such as Vernon-Lumby, which the NDP won in 2020. Acton’s candidacy will face pressure from both the B.C. NDP and a surging B.C. Conservative base. If the vote splits, it could swing the riding back into NDP control, or allow the B.C. Conservatives to make gains.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Salmon Arm-Shuswap candidates, click here.

In Salmon Arm-Shuswap, Greg McCune’s Independent bid will face similar dynamics. This riding has a deeply conservative base, but with B.C. Conservatives gaining momentum, vote-splitting could alter the outcome.

The Kootenay Ridings: NDP vs. B.C. Conservatives

In the Kootenays, the B.C. NDP has traditionally done well, especially in ridings like Kootenay West and Kootenay-Rockies, where progressive and environmentally-focused voters dominate. However, the B.C. Conservatives are working to broaden their appeal in these areas by emphasizing opposition to government overreach, particularly on resource management and rural development issues.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Central candidates, click here.

The B.C. Greens have historically been a strong force in Nelson and surrounding areas, appealing to environmentally conscious voters who support sustainable resource management and climate action. In ridings like Kootenay-West (the old Nelson-Creston riding) the Greens are expected to remain a key player, with potential to siphon votes away from the B.C. NDP. However, it is unlikely that the B.C. Conservatives will gain significant traction here due to the progressive nature of the electorate.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kootenay-Rockies candidates, click here.

In Kootenay-Rockies, Tom Shypitka’s decision to run as an Independent, having previously been a B.C. United MLA, will complicate the conservative vote. The B.C. Conservatives are likely to perform well in this region, but Shypitka’s local popularity could create a fragmented right-leaning vote, giving the NDP a chance to maintain or even expand their influence.

The Kamloops Ridings

Kamloops has historically been a battleground, with ridings like Kamloops-North Thompson and Kamloops-Centre frequently seeing close contests.

The B.C. Conservatives, emboldened by their recent growth, are aiming to make headway in these ridings.

To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-North Thompson candidates, click here.

In Kamloops-North Thompson, where rural concerns about resource industries and housing affordability dominate, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to perform well, potentially at the expense of the B.C. NDP.


To read Vote Mate candidate profiles of the Kamloops-Centre candidates, click here.

Kamloops-Centre, with a more urban electorate the Conservatives could retain the seat with former B.C. United / B.C. Liberal candidate Peter Milobar holding down the fort for the Conservatives, unless voters disillusioned with both the remnants of B.C. United. and decide to cast their ballot for a reinvigorated B.C. New Democratic Party.

The 2024 B.C. election in the Interior, Okanagan, Kootenays, and the North is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

The B.C. Conservatives are positioned to make significant gains, particularly in more rural, conservative-leaning ridings. However, the presence of high-profile Independents, especially former B.C. United MLAs, adds complexity to the race, creating the potential for vote-splitting and unexpected outcomes.

The B.C. Greens will remain strong in progressive enclaves, particularly around Nelson, while the B.C. NDP faces the challenge of defending its gains from 2020 in the face of a re-energized conservative movement.

As of today, we are 25 days away from October 19th Election Day.

2024 British Columbia Provincial Election | Regional Riding Analysis

Part 1 | Vancouver Island | Five Ridings in Contention, and Subject to Change


The Hotel Pacifico podcast will broadcast daily, Monday thru Friday, throughout the 2024 election

The good folks at Air Quotes Media’s Hotel Pacifico podcast — featuring Mike McDonald, Christy Clark’s campaign manager in 2013; Geoff Meggs, Premier John Horgan’s Chief of Staff; and Kate Hammer, a former Globe and Mail British Columbia legislative reporter — will “broadcast” on the B.C. Election each day, Monday through Friday.

VanRamblings will post the podcast, for your edification and enjoyment.

#BCPoli | Former BC United MLAs & Candidates to Run as Independents

BC Election 2024, BC Votes 2024, Canada, canadian politics, Essay, News, Politics, , , , , ,

In the aftermath of the dissolution of B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberal Party, several incumbent B.C. United members of British Columbia’s Legislative Assembly, and former candidates, have this past week decided to run as Independents in the upcoming 2024 British Columbia provincial election.

This rise of Independents running for election — or, re-election — follows B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse B.C. Conservative leader John Rustad and shutter the party, leaving centrist voters without a clear political home. The choices made by these MLAs and former candidates to run as Independents reveal a divergence of political philosophy from Kevin Falcon’s strategy, and reflect concerns about the lack of moderate representation in provincial politics.

The Independent Candidates: Incumbent Members of the Legislature

Several incumbent B.C. United MLAs have announced they will be running as Independents. Each brings their own rationale for breaking away from the party and running independently:

  • Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano): A staunch advocate for centrist policies, Kirkpatrick has expressed discomfort with B.C. United’s decision to merge its support with the B.C. Conservatives. Her primary concerns centre on the erosion of moderate voices, particularly regarding social policy issues like LGBTQ rights and environmental policies, which she sees as being disregarded by the decidedly more right-wing Conservative Party of British Columbia. MLA Karin Kirkpatrick aims to continue representing her constituents with hard work, and a centrist approach.

  • Coralee Oakes (Cariboo North): Ms. Oakes — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Community, Sport and Cultural Development — with a deep history of public service in her rural riding, has also similarly distanced herself from the merger. She has criticized the B.C. Conservatives alt-right stance, as she emphasizes her commitment to pragmatic, community-based governance that is neither aligned with the socially democratic B.C. NDP nor the far-too-right-wing for her, B.C. Conservatives. Oakes’s focus remains on rural issues such as forestry and infrastructure.
  • Mike Bernier (Peace River South): Mr. Bernier — a former B.C. Liberal Minister of Education — has long advocated for resource development and economic growth, but believes that the endorsement of the B.C. Conservative Party by Kevin Falcon represents a step too far toward the political right. Running as an Independent allows Mr. Benier to maintain a balance between economic conservatism and moderate social policies that he believes reflect the values of his constituents.
  • Dan Davies (Peace River North): Mr. Davies has taken a similar stance, underscoring the importance of responsible fiscal policy without compromising on social issues like education and healthcare. His departure from B.C. United reflects his unease with the B.C. Conservatives extreme positions, particularly regarding climate change and Indigenous relations, which are key issues in his resource-rich riding.
  • Tom Shypitka (Kootenay-Rockies): Mr. Shypitka, known for his work in mining and natural resource sectors, has voiced concerns about how Kevin Falcon’s endorsement of the John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party could alienate voters who are interested in economic development, but who also value progressive stances on issues like environmental sustainability. By running as an Independent, Mr. Shypitka hopes to represent a balance that the B.C. Conservative Party does not embrace.

Former B.C. United Candidates Turning Independent in 2024

Several former B.C. United candidates are also taking the Independent route:

  • Jackie Lee (Richmond-Steveston) and Wendy Yuan (Richmond Centre).  A long-time advocate for immigrant communities and small businesses, Jackie Lee has voiced frustration over the lack of moderate representation, most particularly Conservative’s socially intolerant stances. Meanwhile, Wendy Yuan is a three decade resident in the Richmond Centre riding, who has expressed concern about escalating crime, open drug use, and a relentless surge in the cost of living.
  • Karen Long (Langley-Abbotsford), Ashley Ramsay (Kelowna-Mission), Dr. Michael Humer (Kelowna Centre) and Tracy St. Claire (Penticton-Summerland). All four former — well known in their communities — B.C. United candidates, now running as Independents, have expressed similar concerns regarding social policies and a desire to represent their ridings with a more balanced platform, reflecting frustration with the direction taken by John Rustad’s B.C. Conservative Party.

  • Kevin Acton (Vernon-Lumby) and Greg McCune (Salmon Arm-Shuwap): These candidates, who have championed rural issues like farming and resource management, have expressed concerns about the polarizing impact of the B.C. Conservative Party on voters who may not agree with their stance on climate change or social issues, but still want robust support for local economies.
  • Meiling Chia (Burnaby South-Metrotown): Ms. Chia has positioned herself as a voice for urban issues like housing affordability and transit. She believes that neither the B.C. Conservatives nor the B.C. NDP offers real solutions for these problems, particularly in fast-growing urban areas where centrist solutions are needed

The Impact of Independent Candidates on B.C.’s Provincial Election

The decision by these former B.C. United MLAs and candidates to run as Independents will have significant implications for both the B.C. Conservative Party and the B.C. New Democratic Party (NDP) in the upcoming election.

  • Impact on B.C. Conservative Party: With B.C. United’s former base splintering, the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad are poised to gain support, especially in rural ridings where conservative values are popular. However, the presence of high-profile Independents like Bernier, Oakes, and Davies could split the vote in these regions, potentially reducing the chances of a B.C. Conservative victory. These Independents may appeal to voters who are fiscally conservative but uncomfortable with the B.C. Conservatives’ positions on social issues like LGBTQ rights and climate change.
  • Impact on B.C. NDP: The splintering of the centre-right vote could benefit the B.C. NDP, especially in urban ridings like Richmond-Steveston, Burnaby South-Metrotown, and Kelowna-Mission. Without a strong centrist party, the B.C. NDP may face less competition from a unified right, allowing them to consolidate support in key battlegrounds. However, if Independent candidates gain enough traction, they could draw away moderate voters who would otherwise have supported the NDP as a strategic choice.

Kevin Falcon’s decision to endorse John Rustad and close B.C. United has left a significant void in British Columbia’s political landscape. VanRamblings has been told by folks in the know that come the 2028 British Columbia provincial election voters will see the revival of a vibrant new, well-funded B.C. Liberal party, offering a fiscally responsible, and socially progressive approach to B.C. politics.

In 2024, by running as Independents, the former B.C. United MLAs and candidates we write about today are aiming to fill that gap, providing voters with a centrist option they believe no longer exists within B.C.’s formal party system.

Their presence in the election is likely to reshape the dynamics in key ridings, creating new challenges for both the B.C. Conservatives and the B.C. NDP.

Whether this strategy will succeed remains to be seen, but it underscores the shifting political terrain in British Columbia as voters navigate between the increasingly polarized political options on offer in the British Columbia provincial election.