Momentum: Support for surging Liberals reaches new election high, at expense of NDP

VanRamblings believes that the various polling companies — in suggesting that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada maintain a seven-plus-point lead over Stephen Harper — have understated support for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, and that in fact, on October 19th the Liberal Party could very well emerge with a majority government of more than 170 Members of Parliament in a rejuvenated and much changed nation’s capital.

Pollster Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Public Research — which predicted the NDP’s orange crush in Alberta earlier this year — told The National Observer’s Fram Dinshaw in an article published yesterday that …

“It’s just a matter of how big the momentum is for the next few days, it could end up in a landslide relative to what we’ve seen for the majority of this campaign, which was a three-way deadlock.”

According to Mainstreet’s polling data, the Liberals are surging across Ontario’s vast heartland, with current support for the party pegged at 47 per cent of the electorate to only 30 per cent support for the Tories, while Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats lag far behind at just 18 per cent support.
More worryingly for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, the Liberals are surging in Toronto’s suburban 905 ridings, as the NDP collapse has handed the anti-Harper vote straight to the Grits, in a vote that is no longer split.

“Right now everything that’s happening nationwide is being confirmed by what’s happening in individual ridings,” said Maggi. “If things continue moving in the direction that they’ve been going, the eventual outcome is a Liberal majority. It still has to move a few more points.”

Over the Thanksgiving weekend, a record 507,920 British Columbians cast a ballot at the advance polls — a whopping 96% increase over 2011, when 259,278 eligible voters in B.C. cast advance ballots — indicating not only almost certain change in government at the federal level come October 19th, but generational change, unlike anything Canadians have witnessed in almost 50 years, dating back to 1968 when Pierre Elliott Trudeau swept to power in an overwhelming victory that proved near revolutionary.

In exit interviews conducted by the three main parties outside the advance polling stations, recorded data indicates that almost 60% of those casting a ballot were in the 18-44 age group, which suggests much greater involvement by the millennial generation in the 2015 election over 2011, when only 38.6% of voters aged 18-44 voted in the previous election.
All you needed to do was look around at the number of baby buggies and strollers, the number of young children running around along the polling lines hour upon hour, with their parents lined up leading up to the table where voters were issued their ballot — there was a new and vital energy at the polling stations, consisting not just of the parents of these young children, but of the children themselves, who represented a new electorate of future engaged citizens, an electorate of families of every description.
In 2015, in order to make polling results more accurate, pollsters are “weighting” published poll results over raw data returns, correlating past voting behaviour with current voting intention.
Given that roughly four out of ten voters aged 18-44 voted in the 2011 election, only four tenths of raw data collected for the 18-44 age group are factored into published poll results. Meanwhile, more than 70% of voters in the 55-80 age group cast a ballot in 2011; the weight given the voter intention of seniors by pollsters is counted at a much greater seven tenths.
If, in fact, as this past weekend’s advance polling station exit interviews would indicate that almost 60% of voters age 18-44 will in fact cast a ballot in 2015, pollsters have been woefully understating current voting intentions for the millennial generation, exit interviewees indicating to enumerators that they had cast ballots in overwhelming numbers for the Liberal party.

The Liberal Party of Canada have momentum on their side, as Justin Trudeau’s message of hope — very similar to the campaign of hope waged by Barack Obama in 2008 — appears to be resonating with a broad cross-section of the voting electorate. Even if Stephen Harper successfully manages to dampen the prospects of a surging Trudeau campaign, it would only mean that most of the 70 per cent or so of Canadians desiring a change in government would cast a ballot for a party other than the Tories.
As of today, according to CBC pollster Éric Grenier at his poll amalgamation site threehundredeight.com, the Liberals are now leading in 15 seats in British Columbia, 10 seats across the three Prairie provinces, an astounding 68 seats in Ontario, 24 seats in Québec, and 27 seats in the Maritimes and the Territories, for a potential total of 144 seats in Canada’s 43rd Parliament, up eight seats today over yesterday, as the wave of support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada continues unabated.

According to Mainstreet’s Quito Maggi, traditional New Democratic Party voters in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia who supported their provincial NDP branches abandoned the federal party as it pitched right, as the Liberals wooed them over with its resurgent progressive messaging.

“By taking that vote for granted and tacking right and trying to outflank Trudeau on those economic issues they lost their base on the left, and by the time Mulcair and the NDP realized that and tacked back left it was too late,” says Maggi.

Maggi goes on to report that Mainstreet Public Research polling results indicate that the Liberals have enjoyed access to a large pool of such traditional NDP voters, as 55% of New Democrat respondents have indicated they were prepared to vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party in the 2015 federal election, a troubling development for the NDP.
While the 70 per cent of Canadian voters wanting change would now appear to be flocking en masse to the Liberal tent — and may yet prove to be Stephen Harper’s worst nightmare on Monday evening, October 19th — the Conservatives retain their core, right-wing Reform-Alliance support base of roughly 30% who, despite all, remain loyal to the slumping Tories.

Tory cabinet ministers to be squeezed out: Leona Aglukkaq (Environment), Rob Nicholson (Justice), Ed Holder (Science), Joe Oliver (Finance), Chris Alexander (Immigration)

We live in a time of some great social and political turbulence.
War in the Middle East plagues the world. A renewed Cold War heats up between a crippled Russian bear, and a United States in turmoil (Donald Trump running for President? … make no mistake, the U.S. is in trouble).
At home, Canadians have experienced 10 lost years at the malevolent hand of our homegrown dictator, Stephen Harper: the economy roils with anxiety, record numbers of families are in distress as child poverty grips our land, environmental concerns remain a sour afterthought, and only days away deliverance beckons as but a forlorn hope for an uncertain — but let us hold out for all our sakes, a buoyant and aspirational — future.

For the progressive forces of change, let us take joy where we may find it.
On October 19th, amidst the maelstrom, there are some joyous certainties:

• Next Monday, the Liberals and the New Democrats will triumph in upwards of five ridings out of 34 in Alberta, a formerly true blue bastion for the federal Conservatives. Political strategists and MPs told The Hill Times that in the current tight, three-way election national campaign, the Liberals and the NDP have a realistic shot at making gains in the Edmonton and Calgary-area ridings. The Liberals and the NDP will win the Edmonton-area ridings of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Strathcona, while Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and Calgary Skyview will go to the Liberals.
• More than two and a half dozen incumbent Conservative MPs are certain to go down to defeat on October 19th, including: Jay Aspin (Nipissing-Timiskaming, Ont.), Ryan Leef (Yukon), Andrew Saxton (North Vancouver, BC), Ted Opitz (Etobicoke Centre, Ont.), Jacques Gourde (Levis-Lotbiniere, Que.), Chungsen Leung (Willowdale, Ont.), Kerry-Lynne Findlay (Delta, BC), Lawrence Toet (Elmwood-Transcona, Man.), Chungsen Leung (Willowdale, Ont.), Wai Young (Vancouver South, BC), John Carmichael (Don Valley West, Ont.), John Duncan (Courtenay-Alberni, BC), Joe Daniel (Don Valley North, Ont.), Roxanne James (Scarborough Centre, Ont.), Peter Braid (Waterloo, Ont.), John Weston (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country, BC), Peter Braid (Waterloo, Ont.), Joyce Bateman (Winnipeg South Centre, Man.), Bernard Trottier (Etobicoke Lakeshore, Ont.), Stephen Woodworth (Kitchener Centre, Ont.), Susan Truppe (London North Center, Ont.), Royal Galipeau (Orléans, Ont.), Bryan Hayes (Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.), Joan Crockatt (Calgary Centre, AB), Joe Daniel (Don Valley North, Ont.), Keith Ashfield (Fredericton, NB), Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester, NS), and Parm Gill (Brampton North, Ont.).

  In addition, five Tory cabinet ministers are set to go down to defeat: Finance Minister Joe Oliver (Toronto Eglinton-Lawrence), Justice Minister Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls), Minister of State (Science and Technology) Ed Holder (London West), Minister of the Environment Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavit), and best of all, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Chris Alexander (Ajax), who angered so many Canadians for his role in the Syrian refugee tragedy.

In these waning days of the 2015 federal election campaign, the ride continues to be dizzying, the leaders full-throated, the outcome uncertain, but at least we can take some solace in the knowledge that Stephen Harper will lose more than 20% of his certain-to-be-defeated caucus.

Here are the updated poll results from Nanos Research — conducted for the CTV and the Globe and Mail — and Éric Grenier’s CBC Polltracker, which today projects a 136-seat minority for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at a campaign event in Vaughan, Ont., on Oct. 8, 2015. The election of a Liberal government in Ottawa could prove transformative for Canadians.

Although pollster Michael Marzolini states to War Room writer Warren Kinsella in an October 12th article in The Hill Times that support for the Conservatives is “extremely understated”, that although support for the Conservatives is …

“very weak among young voters, and amongst all the demographics that don’t tend to vote, in hard numbers, when one factors in that Conservative support is almost exclusively among high turnout groups, including seniors (whose turnout rate is almost double that of voters aged 18-44)”, at which point in the article, Mr. Marzolini …”

… goes on to predict 37% Conservative support on election night, October 19th, to 32% support for the Liberals and 27% support for the New Democrats, VanRamblings will take as an article of faith that the Forum Research, Nanos Research, Angus Reid and the plethora of other reputable polling companies cannot possibly be understating support for the Conservatives by 9%, and that the distinguished Mr. Marzolini is dreaming in technicolour, and that next Monday, we will in fact elect a minority Liberal government. VanRamblings will proceed today to post about what the election of a Liberal government to Ottawa will mean for all Canadians across our land. In the meantime, we would plead with you to get out to vote, in order to stave off the potential for a soul destroying Tory victory.

Moving Canadian seniors out of poverty. A central tenet of the Liberal platform involves increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement for seniors by $750 million annually, to lift more than 650,000 Canadian seniors out of poverty. The Liberals would also cancel the Conservative plan to increase OAS eligibility age to 67. In addition, Mr. Trudeau has stated that he would hold a First Ministers Conference with all of Canada’s Premiers, and that he is open to the position taken by the Premier’s Conference that over the next eight years, Canada would move to ensure that no senior would live on less than $2000 a month in pension benefits.

Boosting youth employment. Youth unemployment is nearly twice the national average. A Liberal government will put in place a Youth Hiring Incentive for small and medium sized businesses: they’ll pay no Employment Insurance premiums for any Canadian youth they hire. More importantly, perhaps, the Liberals will provide up to $100 million a year to create more than 40,000 jobs, paid internships and co-op placements for youth over four years, as well as spend $1.5 billion over four years on a youth job strategy to help 125,000 young people find a job.
In addition, the Liberals will create a Prime Minister’s Youth Advisory Council, consisting of young Canadians aged 16 to 24, to provide non-partisan advice to the Prime Minister on issues facing the country.

Funding affordable and co-operative housing. For those who live in the more than 2,000 housing co-ops in Canada, housing greater than 111,000 Canadians, a renewal of the $2 billion subsidy for tens of thousands of Canadians requiring a subsidy on their housing charge is absolutely mandatory; the Liberal party has made that commitment, the Conservative party — who have the worst record on housing of any Canadian government in the 148-year history of our nation — has not.

One can check which Liberal, or NDP, candidate will best be able to defeat the Conservative candidate in your riding by consulting Éric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com — you can take it as gospel that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are not on your side.
What other changes will a Liberal government in Ottawa bring about that will serve the interests of the broadest cross-section of Canadians?

• Unlike Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister will hold regular meetings with the Premiers to discuss and come up with resolutions to the important social, political and environmental issues of the day;
• No longer will Canadians be subject to an imperial Prime Minister’s Office, with decisions taken in secret, and forced upon Canadians without consultation with Members of Parliament, or Canadians across our land;
• As has always been the case under Liberal regimes, a Liberal government will have strong, independently-minded Ministers of Government — the notion of an imperial PMO will thankfully be off the table, once and for all;
• The Liberal party will reverse corporate tax cuts, which will serve to plough more than $5.2-billion annually into the Canadian economy;
• Liberal immigration policy will focus on family reunification, doubling the number of applications allowed for parents and grandparents to 10,000 each year; in addition, there will be a change to the rules allowing spouses immigrating to Canada to receive immediate permanent residency, eliminating the current two-year waiting period.
• Liberals will provide $380 million in additional funding for the arts, as well as undo Conservative funding cuts to the CBC;
• Liberals will reduce wait times for a first EI payment to one week from two. In addition, Liberals will implement a new six-month family care employment insurance benefit similar to the EI parental leave benefit;
• As every knows, the Liberal party will both, initially, decriminalize use of marijuana in Canada, and present legislation to Parliament that will legalize the administration and use of marijuana across our country.

The entire Liberal party platform is available here.

Perhaps the single most despicable act of the Stephen Harper Tories involves sending Canadians troops into harm’s way — in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Syria, and other war torn parts of the world — and upon arriving home from the theatres of war, denying our injured troops pensions, health programmes and support, cruelly leaving our veterans and their families to fend for themselves. One is left to wonder how Stephen Harper, the members of his party, and those who would deign to vote for the Conservatives manage to sleep at night knowing of the tragedies that have been created by their heartless, penny-pinching Tory administration.
Let’s be clear: Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada will re-establish lifelong pensions for our injured veterans, as well as increase the value of the disability award; Liberals will invest $25 million to expand access to the Permanent Impairment Allowance; invest $40 million to increase the Earnings Loss Benefit to 90 percent of pre-release salary; invest $80 million per year to create a new Veterans Education Benefit (in the U.S., it’s call the “GI Plan”) that will provide full support for the cost of up to four years of college, university, or technical education; invest $100 million per year to expand support for families of veterans; and, re-open the 9 Veterans Affairs service offices closed by the Harper Conservatives.

The choice is clear. On October 19th, 2015 Canadians of heart and conscience will vote for the candidate in their riding who will best be able to defeat the Conservative party. As it happens, if the polls are correct, in upwards of 134 ridings across Canada, the candidate who will best be able to defeat the Conservatives is the Liberal candidate in your riding.

On day seventy-two of Canada’s 2015 marathon election, according to a consensus of more than 70 pollsters, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have pulled away from the pack and now have a substantial lead over both the fusty Conservative Party, and the principled but hapless New Democratic Party. One week from today, we may have a new government.
As can be seen in the latest Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada have opened an almost insurmountable seven-point lead over Stephen Harper’s Regressive Conservatives, that lead in voter support finally — according to CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier’s Polltracker — translating into a substantive seat count confirming a slim but workable minority government for the Liberals heading into Canada’s 43rd Parliament, in the process ridding our country of the most malevolent force in federal Canadian politics in all of Canada’s 148 years as a nation, not to mention the ten lost years of leadership at the federal level under a Stephen Harper-led government.

CBC Polltracker | October 11, 2015 | projected Liberal minority government | 134 seats

As VanRamblings posted last Tuesday, reiterated by Georgia Straight editor Charlie Smith this weekend, according to Éric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com, the Liberals are now leading in 14 seats across British Columbia, a rise of 12 seats over the 2011 federal election results.

“When Parliament was dissolved, the Liberals held only two B.C. seats: Vancouver Centre (Hedy Fry) and Vancouver Quadra (Joyce Murray),” writes Smith.

“The (threehundredeight.com) website has the Liberals likely or in serious contention to elect the following candidates in addition to Fry and Murray: Jody Wilson-Raybould (Vancouver Granville), Terry Beech (Burnaby North-Seymour), Carla Qaultrough (Delta), Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South), Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver), Pamela Goldsmith-Jones (West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast), Lawrence Woo (Richmond Centre), Joe Peschisolido (Steveston-Richmond East), Randeep Sarai (Surrey Centre), Sukh Dhaliwal (Surrey-Newton), Ken Hardie (Fleetwood-Port Kells), and Judy Higginbotham (South Surrey-White Rock).”

Grenier currently projects 10 seats across the Prairies for the Liberals, 62 seats in Ontario (representing more than half the seats in the province), 22 seats in Québec, and 26 seats in the Maritimes and the Territories.

Across Ontario, the Liberal Party of Canada has established what can only be described as a massive lead as the ABC (Anything but Conservative) strategic vote coalesces around Justin Trudeau in response to the NDP’s support evaporating in Québec, according to a survey carried out by Google Consumer Surveys and commissioned by ThinkPol.
The Liberals currently sit at a solid 45% in voter support in Ontario, followed by the Conservatives at 27%, the NDP at 24%, and the Greens at 4%. In the ThinkPol survey, the Liberals dominated both genders and all age groups except the 65 and over group, which sided with the Conservatives, who came last behind the Greens for the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups. The Liberals also led in all income groups except the $24,000 or less group, which favoured the New Democratic Party.
Support for the NDP in MetroToronto and the 905 (the suburbs surrounding Metro Toronto) has all but vanished, as committed voters have moved to the Liberals as the Anyone But Conservative party. The remaining gains for the Liberals come at the expense of dwindling support for the Tory party.
Justin Trudeau continues to make his pitch to those voters who had previously cast their ballot for Stephen Harper’s Tories …

“At a rally held earlier today in the riding of Nepean in suburban Ottawa, the Globe and Mail reports, Mr. Trudeau said ‘the Tories have a proud history,’ before taking shots at Mr. Harper’s promise to remove the Canadian citizenship of convicted terrorists with dual nationalities.”

“Most importantly, Progressive Conservatives — Tories — can be proud that their prime ministers didn’t base everything on wedge politics. They didn’t divide Canadians over differences of religion or citizenship. Progressive Conservative prime ministers believed that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian,” Mr. Trudeau said in front of hundreds of supporters.”

“The Liberal Leader said that in the past, PC governments fought against poverty and helped to improve Canada’s reputation on the world stage. “Those are values that haven’t disappeared, they have just disappeared from the current Conservative Party and disappeared along with anything progressive about them,” he said.