Decision Canada 2015: Stephen Harper, Master Manipulator

Nick Davies, in The Guardian, compares Stephen Harper to Richard Nixon

In less than 24 hours from now — on Monday, October 19th — Canadian voters will head to the polls to elect a new federal government in Ottawa.
As a service to VanRamblings’ readers, we will today present a précis of a trenchant, first rate article published in The Guardian, written by British investigative journalist & documentary maker, Nick Davies, who in autumn 2010 broke Britain’s News of the World phone hacking scandal, and wrote the book, Hack Attack: How the Truth Caught Up with Rupert Murdoch.
The Guardian article on Canada’s election is titled Stephen Harper: master manipulator. Davies asks the question, “Despite several scandals worthy of Watergate over the past decade, Stephen Harper could win a fourth election October 19th. Can the master manipulator work his dark magic?”
Davies goes on to compare Stephen Harper’s politics of manipulation to those of discredited U.S. president Richard “Tricky Dick” Nixon, writing …

“In the Watergate scandal, all the president’s men were accused primarily of breaking the law to get Nixon a second term in the White House. In Canada, some of the prime minister’s men and women have been accused not simply of cheating to win elections but of conspiring to jam the machinery of democratic government.”

“Some of these allegations have been proved.”

“In the 11 years since he became leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, the party has been fined for breaking electoral rules, and various members of Team Harper have been caught misleading parliament, gagging civil servants, subverting parliamentary committees, gagging scientists, harassing the Supreme Court, gagging diplomats, lying to the public, concealing evidence of potential crime, spying on opponents, bullying and smearing. Harper personally has earned himself the rare rebuke of being found to be in contempt of his Parliament.”

“At heart, Harper’s team are not that different from politicians across the developed world who have discovered that democracy is a pretty sweet theory but that, in reality, if you want to get hold of power and use it, there are all kinds of devious moves available that have very little to do with that antique idea.”

Davies writes that the path to electoral crime is rarely trodden but that there is a close alternative, what Nixon’s people called ratfucking — acts of sabotage to damage an opponent. Not exactly criminal. Not always.

2015 Canadian Federal election, Stephen Harper and Dirty Tricks Campaigning

For example, when the current Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, recently held an open-air press conference in Ottawa — as has been the case this past week, wherever Trudeau held a rally — he found himself being heckled by a group of young protesters waving placards. The Huffington Post revealed that these hecklers were interns working for the Prime Minister’s Office.
In his October 15th article in The Guardian, Davies expands on the idea …

“In the fortnight before polling day in 2011, Liberal supporters started receiving nuisance calls from people who claimed to be Liberal party workers – calling Jewish voters on the Sabbath, waking up others in the middle of the night. Liberals said this was Conservatives trying to alienate their support. Then, in the final three days before the vote, Elections Canada received a series of complaints about robocalls — recorded messages sent by automatic dialing — that told voters quite falsely that their polling station had been moved.”

“By election day, anxiety was rising among officials, as internal emails recorded: ‘It seems that Conservative candidates are pretending that Elections Canada or returning officers have changed the polling stations … They have actually disrupted the voting process … It’s right across the country except Saskatchewan … It appears it is getting worse.’ This looked like a national campaign to suppress the Liberal vote by scattering it away from the polling booths.”

When a group of voters from the six affected Ontario ridings went to federal court to challenge the results of the election, Mr Justice Mosley issued a devastating verdict, stating …

“I am satisfied that it has been established that misleading calls about the locations of polling stations were made to electors in ridings across the country and that the purpose of those calls was to suppress the votes of electors who had indicated their preference in response to earlier voter-identification calls.”

Even so, the judge declined to order new elections.

Stephen Harper, the dark god of Canadian politics, and a master manipulator

Davies goes on to call Harper a “master tactician” which reflects his “clever and harsh” character, who has turned the democratic process into a sequence of ugly political manoeuvres that hew closely to the philosophy of American political conspirator, himself a master manipulator, Arthur Finkelstein, a senior advisor to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, and who has consulted on all five of Stephen Harper’s campaigns for office.
One of Harper’s allies in the 1990s, Gerry Nicholls, captured in his memoirs the special cynicism of Finkelstein’s will to manipulate the electorate in his dictum: “We have to convince Canadians to drink pig’s piss.”
How did Harper go about achieving this far from laudable goal?
Attack ads smearing the opposition, in 1993, a focus on Liberal leader Jean Chrétien’s facial disfigurement, caused by Bell’s palsy, and more recently exploiting “wedge” issues that aim to alienate a section of the opposition support, such as demanding the closure of the unit where heroin addicts in Vancouver may access safe injections, not to mention descending into old-fashioned, U.S.-style pork-barrel politics — as he did prior to the August 2nd election call — pouring public money into ridings that were politically important. A Globe and Mail investigation this year found that 83% of the Harper government’s new infrastructure projects had gone to the 52% of ridings that were in Conservative hands.

2015 Canadian Federal election, Stephen Harper considers the prospect of losing the election

Once the election was called eleven weeks ago today, Stephen Harper — having stopped public funding for political parties, yielding the financial advantage to his corporate-funded Conservative party — the prime minister, when he made speeches or held photo ops avoided questions from the press, dragged out Canadian idol Wayne Gretzky — hardly a deep political thinker — to endorse the Conservative party, thereby garnering headlines and nightly television news hours coverage, microtargeted home owners with a tax break on home renovations, and when the party was slipping backwards in the polls, came up with a brilliantly successful wedge issue that devastated the New Democratic Party campaign — where Harper insisted that no Muslim woman should be allowed to take the oath of Canadian citizenship while wearing a niqab, appealing to “old stock” Canadians, who fear Muslim migrants as intruders, and liberal feminists, to whom one of Harper’s ministers appealed by describing the niqab as “a medieval tribal custom that treats women as property rather than people.”
For speaking up in favour of a Muslim woman’s right to choose what she wears, Tom Mulcair, the leader of the New Democratic party, was punished with a disastrous collapse in his poll ratings, while Harper surged upwards.
Davies concludes his article in The Guardian, writing …

“Harper has the natural advantage of an opposition, which is divided between Mulcair’s NDP and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. He also has the advantage of what looks like a form of voter suppression which, unlike robocalls, is legal — a requirement that voters produce an official document in addition to their voter card to prove that they have a home in the riding.”

“Harry Neufeld, who has been running elections in Canada since 1982, said he estimated that at least 250,000 qualified electors would be denied a vote. These are likely to be people who would not vote Conservative — students, the poor, aboriginal people.”

“I believe the legal changes amount to systematic manipulation,” he said. “It saddens me to see this happening in Canada. It reduces the perceived integrity of our national elections. And it damages our reputation as a country with deep democratic values.”

Will Canadians elect Stephen Harper to a fourth consecutive term in office as Canada’s Prime Minister, a feat not achieved since the bygone days of Liberal prime minister Sir Wilfred Laurier, at the outset of the 20th century?

2015 Canadian Federal election: Vote for Change

Only you can reject the politics of fear and division. Only you can say to Stephen Harper, “Enough is enough!” Tomorrow the polls open in British Columbia at 7 a.m., closing 12 hours later at 7 p.m. Get out and vote.
As we have suggested previously, consult with Éric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com, and make sure that you cast a ballot for the Liberal or NDP candidate in your riding who will best be able to defeat the Conservative candidate on the ballot, and put an end to heinous Canadian politics in the form of Stephen Harper.
On October 19th make your voice heard. Tell Harper, Enough is enough!

Decision 2015: The Why of the Collapse of the NDP Campaign

2015 Canadian Federal election, Nanos Research Poll Results, October 17th

The notable figure in the Nanos Research poll above is not the fact that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals maintain a near seven-point lead over the fusty, Canadians ain’t gonna be returning ’em to office Stephen Harper-led Conservatives, but at 22.6% in the polls, the utter collapse of the New Democratic Party campaign, not just in the waning days of the 42nd federal campaign for national office, but over the course of the past seven weeks.
Today on VanRamblings, a glancing blow at just what happened to the New Democrats this past 76 days, why Tom Mulcair and the NDP seem to have lost favour with the voting public, and how it is that Canadians no longer see the New Democratic Party of Canada as the agents of change party, but rather a national political party promising more of the same old, same old.

2015 Canadian Federal election, Tom Mulcair, leader of the New Democratic Party

If you ask Rick Salutin, current Toronto Star columnist, longtime Globe and Mail columnist, and for more than 40 years the authoritative voice of the left in Canada, Mr. Salutin would chock the NDP campaign collapse up to Tom Mulcair’s and the New Democratic Party’s essential mean-spiritedness, a lack of respect for Justin Trudeau, the leader of the Liberal party, and a neoliberal NDP campaign that pitched to right, promising a succession of balanced budgets and a social and economic plan that would take at least ten years to implement, and would require the uncertain support of the provincial and territorial premiers from sea to sea to shining sea.

“Justin Trudeau has withstood a pummeling that wasted the two previous Liberal leaders so badly that each broke down publicly during their campaign under the scorn and humiliation. Trudeau survived and overcame. You wanted a narrative?” writes Salutin.

“A major weapon was referring to him only as Justin, as if he was nine. Sort of first-naming and shaming. Thomas Mulcair of course was Mr. Mulcair, like your math teacher. This may have overreached. ‘He’s 43! barked a high school student I know, as if nothing more needed saying. Forty-three is senior enough for anyone under that age.”

“Mulcair could have expressed revulsion at the scuzzy tone of the assaults on Trudeau, which I think would have been politically astute. Instead he piled on, calling Trudeau, ‘Justin’, in the debates and running ads saying ‘I’m ready,’ which made him sound like Harper’s poodle. It was a sad denouement for someone who’d made many forceful sallies against Harper during Question Period — though it’s richly dramatic in terms of plot line. It reached a nadir at the Munk debate when Mulcair said Trudeau needs others to write his lines for him — even though Mulcair himself has clearly been coached on how to behave and which level to calibrate his smile at. Trudeau replied that we’ve had 10 years of personal slurs from Harper and we don’t need more.”

“I fully expect the Liberals to screw us over if they win. Liberals always break your heart after the election. It’s conventionally known as running from the left and governing from the right. The NDP, on the other hand, has taken to breaking our hearts before the election.”

While Justin Trudeau appealed to the angels of Canadians’ better nature, in what appears less than 48 hours before election day to be a winning campaign of hope that will see him become Canada’s next Prime Minister, Mr. Mulcair piled onto Harper’s campaign, aimed at the annihilation of the Liberal leader — in 2015, Canadians have clearly had enough of the politics of personal destruction, as the Tory campaign has engaged in divisiveness and the politics of xenophobia and racist provocation, while Mulcair, and the New Democrats, has continued to rely on the Just Not Ready narrative.

Justin Trudeau’s Campaign of Hope: giving the lie to the Just Not Ready narrative.

Then there’s the listless, too-safe-by-far and, at least of late, unfocused nature of the New Democratic Party campaign, with NDP leader Tom Mulcair no longer seen as the effective and necessary agent of change, waging an uninspiring protean and prosaic campaign that seems only to say to Canadians, “Well, gosh, we’re just darn better than the other guys.”
Honestly, what is the real difference between the Liberal and New Democratic Party campaign platforms? Mr. Trudeau has made a more compelling and — and as left-wing gadfly and columnist Terry Glavin writes in his Ottawa Citizen column — more rousing argument for change …

“You don’t have to drill down through the finer points of the NDP and Liberal campaign platforms to notice that the few substantial differences in their economic and spending policies can be read in such a way as to situate the Liberals to the left of the NDP. The foreign policy and domestic policy notes on everybody’s election concertinas are in the same key. Terrorism, citizenship revocation, niqabs, trade policy, Syrian refugees and the parties’ tireless wooing of ethnic votes have ended up being at least as entertaining as the competing bread and butter tunes all three parties were hoping to play. But between Mulcair and Trudeau, it’s Trudeau’s renditions that are proving the most rousing.”

Glavin then goes on to write about Trudeau’s inspiring leadership …

“While Mulcair gives the impression of mostly being aggravated by the Conservatives’ deucedly fiendish campaign chess moves, Trudeau relishes the fight, insisting that what is at stake are inviolable frontiers that decent societies must never allow to be crossed. Hallowed boundaries circle the dignity of the individual and the rights of citizenship, Trudeau will tell you, and fleeting assumptions about the civic good or national security, no matter how popular, must not be permitted to trespass across them.”

“That’s the sterner stuff of liberal idealism. It is a devil of a thing to champion effectively at the best of times, but it is the difficult philosophical standpoint that Trudeau has been most vigorously and extemporaneously defending. What does Mulcair stand for again? What does Harper stand for?”

While it is true that Tom Mulcair and the New Democrats have not necessarily made any discernible faux pas during the course of the 42nd national election campaign, Tom Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada have failed to galvanize their initial support as the best alternative to a tired and out of touch Conservative Party — which is too bad, really.
For, make no mistake, Tom Mulcair and the New Democrats — even given the lacklustre nature of their campaign, and their utter failure to inspire the imaginations of Canadians on the topic of a fairer Canada — remain the singular party of principle on the national scene, the one federal and provincial political party that will always, always, always support and further the aspirations of working Canadians for a better future for themselves and for their families, and in the process … a better Canada.

2015 Canadian Federal election: Vote for Change

On Monday, October 19th make your voice heard. As we’ve written previously, consult with Éric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com, and make sure that you cast a ballot for the Liberal or NDP candidate in your riding who will best be able to defeat the Conservative candidate on the ballot.

Decision 2015: Make Change Happen This Monday, October 19th

2015 Canadian Federal election, Nanos Research Poll Results, October 16th

Make no mistake: this is a change election.
On Monday, October 19th, Canadians will likely elect a minority Liberal government to Ottawa, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will be relegated to official opposition (the consequence of which will see Harper step down as Tory leader in the days following Monday’s election), Tom Mulcair and the NDP — whose popularity has recovered somewhat in recent days — will return, in Canada’s 43rd Parliament, to their traditional third party status, maintaining in the neighbourhood of 85 seats (which is to say, more than five times as many seats as the NDP held at the federal level only a decade ago), as Canadians once again reclaim our traditional values of respect for cultural differences, and a commitment to social justice.
Over the Thanksgiving weekend, more than 3.6 million Canadians cast a ballot at one of the hundreds of advance polls across our land — fully one-quarter of all voters who cast a ballot in 2011, and almost double the number of voters who cast a ballot in the advance polls in the previous election — as change for the better was on their mind.
In 2015, Canada will move inexorably forward. If you haven’t voted already, make damn sure that you get out to vote on Monday, October 19th. Only you can help to make change happen.
Make your voice heard. Consult with Éric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com, and vote for the Liberal or NDP candidate in your riding who will best be able to defeat the loathsome, heinous Conservative candidate on the ballot.

2015 Canadian Federal election, CBC Polltracker, October 16, 2015

2015 Canadian Federal election, CBC Polltracker seat projection, October 16, 2015

The October Surprise: Justin Trudeau and Majority Government?

2015 Canadian Federal election, Nanos Research Poll Results, October 15thMomentum: Support for surging Liberals reaches new election high, at expense of NDP

VanRamblings believes that the various polling companies — in suggesting that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada maintain a seven-plus-point lead over Stephen Harper — have understated support for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, and that in fact, on October 19th the Liberal Party could very well emerge with a majority government of more than 170 Members of Parliament in a rejuvenated and much changed nation’s capital.

Mainstream Public Research, Canada's most accurate polling company

Pollster Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Public Research — which predicted the NDP’s orange crush in Alberta earlier this year — told The National Observer’s Fram Dinshaw in an article published yesterday that …

“It’s just a matter of how big the momentum is for the next few days, it could end up in a landslide relative to what we’ve seen for the majority of this campaign, which was a three-way deadlock.”

According to Mainstreet’s polling data, the Liberals are surging across Ontario’s vast heartland, with current support for the party pegged at 47 per cent of the electorate to only 30 per cent support for the Tories, while Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats lag far behind at just 18 per cent support.
More worryingly for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, the Liberals are surging in Toronto’s suburban 905 ridings, as the NDP collapse has handed the anti-Harper vote straight to the Grits, in a vote that is no longer split.

“Right now everything that’s happening nationwide is being confirmed by what’s happening in individual ridings,” said Maggi. “If things continue moving in the direction that they’ve been going, the eventual outcome is a Liberal majority. It still has to move a few more points.”

Over the Thanksgiving weekend, a record 507,920 British Columbians cast a ballot at the advance polls — a whopping 96% increase over 2011, when 259,278 eligible voters in B.C. cast advance ballots — indicating not only almost certain change in government at the federal level come October 19th, but generational change, unlike anything Canadians have witnessed in almost 50 years, dating back to 1968 when Pierre Elliott Trudeau swept to power in an overwhelming victory that proved near revolutionary.

2015 Canadian Federal election, advance polling station

In exit interviews conducted by the three main parties outside the advance polling stations, recorded data indicates that almost 60% of those casting a ballot were in the 18-44 age group, which suggests much greater involvement by the millennial generation in the 2015 election over 2011, when only 38.6% of voters aged 18-44 voted in the previous election.
All you needed to do was look around at the number of baby buggies and strollers, the number of young children running around along the polling lines hour upon hour, with their parents lined up leading up to the table where voters were issued their ballot — there was a new and vital energy at the polling stations, consisting not just of the parents of these young children, but of the children themselves, who represented a new electorate of future engaged citizens, an electorate of families of every description.
In 2015, in order to make polling results more accurate, pollsters are “weighting” published poll results over raw data returns, correlating past voting behaviour with current voting intention.
Given that roughly four out of ten voters aged 18-44 voted in the 2011 election, only four tenths of raw data collected for the 18-44 age group are factored into published poll results. Meanwhile, more than 70% of voters in the 55-80 age group cast a ballot in 2011; the weight given the voter intention of seniors by pollsters is counted at a much greater seven tenths.
If, in fact, as this past weekend’s advance polling station exit interviews would indicate that almost 60% of voters age 18-44 will in fact cast a ballot in 2015, pollsters have been woefully understating current voting intentions for the millennial generation, exit interviewees indicating to enumerators that they had cast ballots in overwhelming numbers for the Liberal party.

2015 Canadian Federal election

The Liberal Party of Canada have momentum on their side, as Justin Trudeau’s message of hope — very similar to the campaign of hope waged by Barack Obama in 2008 — appears to be resonating with a broad cross-section of the voting electorate. Even if Stephen Harper successfully manages to dampen the prospects of a surging Trudeau campaign, it would only mean that most of the 70 per cent or so of Canadians desiring a change in government would cast a ballot for a party other than the Tories.
As of today, according to CBC pollster Éric Grenier at his poll amalgamation site threehundredeight.com, the Liberals are now leading in 15 seats in British Columbia, 10 seats across the three Prairie provinces, an astounding 68 seats in Ontario, 24 seats in Québec, and 27 seats in the Maritimes and the Territories, for a potential total of 144 seats in Canada’s 43rd Parliament, up eight seats today over yesterday, as the wave of support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada continues unabated.

Tom Mulcair pitches 2015 NDP campaign to the right

According to Mainstreet’s Quito Maggi, traditional New Democratic Party voters in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia who supported their provincial NDP branches abandoned the federal party as it pitched right, as the Liberals wooed them over with its resurgent progressive messaging.

“By taking that vote for granted and tacking right and trying to outflank Trudeau on those economic issues they lost their base on the left, and by the time Mulcair and the NDP realized that and tacked back left it was too late,” says Maggi.

Maggi goes on to report that Mainstreet Public Research polling results indicate that the Liberals have enjoyed access to a large pool of such traditional NDP voters, as 55% of New Democrat respondents have indicated they were prepared to vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party in the 2015 federal election, a troubling development for the NDP.
While the 70 per cent of Canadian voters wanting change would now appear to be flocking en masse to the Liberal tent — and may yet prove to be Stephen Harper’s worst nightmare on Monday evening, October 19th — the Conservatives retain their core, right-wing Reform-Alliance support base of roughly 30% who, despite all, remain loyal to the slumping Tories.