Former astronaut Marc Garneau is a shoo-in for a cabinet spot. Toronto-based business journalist and author Chrystia Freeland is also high on the list of newcomers.

Only hours from now, Canadians will know the names and personages of the Liberal Party members of Parliament — some veterans, many more first time electeds, at least half of whom will be women — who will constitute the Trudeau government’s diverse and unrivaled first Cabinet of equals.
Speculation has run rampant lo these many days. Today, what the pundits think they know. As for the rest of us, we’ll know soon enough — on or before 7:30 a.m. PST, Wednesday, while we watch live coverage of change in motion, as Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau and his chosen Cabinet alight from the bus that will transport them to Rideau Hall, to be sworn into office by Canada’s Governor General, David Johnston.

Justin Trudeau has vowed to ensure that women will comprise fully half of his cabinet. Here are some of the rookie contenders (clockwise from top left): Patty Hajdu, Kate Young, Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Carla Qualtrough, Maryam Monsef, and Mélanie Joly.

First off, read this very fine column by Kate Heartfield in the Ottawa Citizen, a defense of gender parity in the Trudeau cabinet.

For one thing, it is a statement of philosophy. Trudeau is the leader of a party that … faces a number of challenges in which gender plays a part, from prostitution law to a promised inquiry about missing and murdered indigenous women.

The simplest answer to why women should make up half of Cabinet is, simply, why not?

“One human being out of two is a woman, so it is a question of simple justice that women hold half of political positions,” explains Manon Tremblay, a professor at the University of Ottawa who studies gender and politics, in an email. “Since women are subjected to the law, they must have a fair participation in the public decision making process.”

And who will be the strong Ministers of the Crown who will sit in Mr. Trudeau’s Cabinet, who will develop policy, and transform your lives?
Finance. As we wrote yesterday, Toronto MP Chrystia Freeland seems to be the odds on favourite to become Canada’s first female Minister of Finance. Tracking not so far behind her is former Nova Scotia Conservative Party member, and last term, Liberal Party shadow Finance critic, Scott Brison. Late speculation, from CTV News, has first-time elected Bill Morneau (Toronto Centre), “who has a Bay Street background but has never sat in Parliament” taking the position of Finance Minister, where he’ll be supported by Université Laval economist Jean-Yves Duclos, who recently won his first federal election, representing Québec City in Parliament.
Environment. With the Paris Climate Change Conference due to get underway November 30th, Prime Minister Trudeau will want to be up-to-speed on environmental issues. Who better to appoint than former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion (and Paul Martin’s Environment Minister)? Vancouver Quadra’s Joyce Murray, a former British Columbia Environment Minister is also in the running — although late word is that she’ll be passed over for cabinet entirely, as the B.C. seats in cabinet will go to three first-timers: Jody Wilson-Raybould, Carla Qualtrough and Pam Goldsmith-Jones.

Cabinet contender Liberal Amarjeet Sohi pulls out a squeaker in Edmonton Mill Woods.

There’s speculation that PEI’s Sean Casey will become Canada’s new Justice Minister. Calgary’s Kent Hehr is apparently set to become Treasury Board President, while his colleague, Edmonton City Councillor, Amarjeet Sohi is under consideration for National Revenue or Natural Resources minister. Winnipeg South Centre MP will likely become our next Agriculture Minister. New Brunswick Southwest MP? Why not Karen Ludwig as Fisheries Minister?

Federal Liberal Party MP-elect for Ahuntsic-Cartierville Mélanie Joly, and close friend of the Trudeau family, seems to be a certainty for cabinet, apparently as Heritage Minister.

Then there are the new faces in the Liberal caucus, destined for cabinet: Medical geography professor Kirsty Duncan, the MP for Etobicoke (Science and Technology Minister?); either former Newfoundland cabinet minister, Yvonne Jones (Labrador), or Judy Foote (Random-Burin-St. George’s), who held numerous cabinet posts in Clyde Wells’ provincial government — but not both; Montréal lawyer (and close Trudeau family friend), Mélanie Joly (apparently slated to become Heritage Minister, as Canada prepares to mark 150 years; Ottawa lawyer and former U.N. legal advisor, Catherine McKenna; and former West Vancouver mayor, Pamela Goldsmith-Jones; not to mention the only BC lock for cabinet, Vancouver-Granville MP, Jody Wilson-Raybould, being touted as Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development minister; former Manitoba NDP provincial Minister of Industry, Trade and Mines, MaryAnn Mihychuk, looks to be set for Public Works minister; retired Lieutenant Colonel Karen McCrimmon is reportedly a lock for cabinet, as is refugee advocate and medical doctor, Jane Philpott, and from rural Qu&eacutebec, either businesswoman Diane Lobouthillie (Gaspé), or Marie-Claude Bibeau (Compton-Stanstead). Healthcare manager / former University of Toronto Vice-Chair, Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Whitby), is also under consideration. In addition, rookie Ontario MPs — representing the all important 905 area outside Toronto — investment specialist Karina Gould (Burlington), and community organizer Maryam Monsef (Peterborough-Kawartha) stand an outside chance of making the cut in Justin Trudeau’s first cabinet.
Late speculation from the Sun chain of newspapers Parliamentary bureau chief David Akin had Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Liberal MP Filomena Tassi making the cut, although Mr. Akin is the first pundit to report Ms. Tassi as a serious contender for cabinet; we’ll know Wednesday morning.
Let’s be very clear: with only 28 to 30 spots open in the Trudeau cabinet, perhaps only half of those named above will end up making the final cut.

The art of cabinet-making means diversity and regional representation, as well as representation from all creeds and cultures. As such Northern Ontario will have to be represented, most probably by Patty Hajdu (pronounced “high-dew”), the former executive director of Shelter House in Thunder Bay. Southwestern Ontario will have to have a seat at the table, so the chatter is that someone like Kate Young, a former TV anchor and newly elected MP for London West, will get a position.
Of course, old Liberal warhorse Ralph Goodale (Regina-Wascana) — the only Saskatchewan Liberal MP — will find almost certainly find himself in a senior cabinet portfolio, as will one time astronaut and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount MP Marc Garneau, who is reportedly under consideration to become Canada’s next Minister of Foreign Affairs. Dominic Leblanc (Beauséjour), an old family friend of the Trudeau family, is also all but a shoo-in for cabinet. Kelowna-Lake Country’s Stephen Fuhr (Kelowna-Lake Country) to Veteran Affairs? Might be a good fit.
Also, there will be one Sikh minister, most likely Navdeep Bains, a Mississauga MP who played a key role in Trudeau’s leadership bid in 2013, who will emerge as a trusted Justin Trudeau cabinet minister.

Hunter Tootoo and Jean-Yves Duclos contenders to make it into Trudeau’s cabinet.

Men will hold up half the sky in the Trudeau cabinet, so there’s likely room for retired Canadian Forces Lieutenant-General Andrew Leslie — late breaking news: according to the Globe and Mail, he’s out , as are former Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair, and Toronto lawyer Marco Mendicino, who turned 40 on election day. Former Manitoba business council head Jim Carr may be headed for cabinet, as is almost certainly the case with Québec City MP, the former head of the economics department at Laval University, Jean-Yves Duclos, who could become Canada’s next Human Resources Minister, or take on an economic portfolio. All things being equal, there may be room for former speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Nunavut Hunter Tootoo (likely), but are prospects dimming for retired police and military officer, newly-elected Vancouver-South MP, Harjit Sajjan?
Five things Justin Trudeau can do on day one
Absences from the cabinet list? On the outside looking in? Popular former Toronto City Councillor Adam Vaughan (Spadina-Fort York), who may be given a non-cabinet role related to affordable housing; former defense minister John McCallum (Markham-Thornhill); former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett (Toronto-St. Paul’s); former Solicitor General Wayne Easter (Malpeque, P.E.I), former Minister of Labour Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan) — the longest-serving MP in the history of Prince Edward Island — former Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Geoff Regan (Halifax West), brother of former Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, David McGuinty (Ottawa South), former Secretary of State for Multiculturalism and Status of Women, and long-serving Vancouver Centre MP Hedy Fry, former Minister of Citizenship and Immigration in the Paul Martin government, Judy Sgro (Humber River-Black Creek), and Mark Holland (Ajax), a key organizer of Trudeau’s 2013 leadership campaign could be on the outs.
Despite all the post-election speculation about how difficult it would be for Trudeau to choose a cabinet from the “abundance of riches” that Liberals won a majority government and 184 seats in the Oct. 19 election, according to insiders, the job turned out to be surprisingly easy. Trudeau, aided by Liberal co-campaign Chair and the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, Katie Telford and policy wonk Gerald Butts, went about the process of building a cabinet considering several key factors: gender equity, ethnic diversity, regional distribution and a balance of new and veteran MPs, but leaning to young and generational change, versus old and experienced.
Stephen Harper’s cabinet had 39 ministers. The Trudeau cabinet will likely be comprised of 28 to 30 members, the incoming Prime Minister dedicated to a leaner, more efficient cabinet team than his predecessor.

Fulfilling a Liberal campaign promise: legalizing and regulating cannabis use in Canada

Although a low priority on the incoming Liberal Party’s governmental agenda, there are two iconic election promises — both with broad popular support — which will serve to determine whether incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be viewed by Canadians as a man who keeps his word, or is a politician who promises a feast, and delivers only thin gruel.

Syrian refugee children in a transition camp, as they await emigration to Canada

Make no mistake, there is a great deal on the incoming government’s legislative agenda, promises Canadians will want to see kept: sustaining home mail delivery; resettling 25,000 Syrian refugees by year’s end; modifying Bill C-51 (anti-terrorism legislation) to satisfy civil libertarians (and most Canadians), while implementing robust national security oversight; cancelling the delivery of the F-35s in favour of less expensive fighter jets; restoring the retirement age to 65, while working with the Premiers on a reform of Canada’s pension plan to ensure no senior lives in poverty; comprehensive reform of Canada’s access-to-information process; appointment of an independent, arm’s length federal Commissioner to oversee expenditure of monies on advertising, ensuring that the ads are not partisan; and, in addition, establishing an independent commission to organize leaders’ debates in time for the next federal election, in 2019.
And let’s not forget the $10 billion annual expenditure on new spending on infrastructure — transit and more — a top priority for the new government.

Students attending a residential school in the 1930s. Righting an historical wrong.

As if the above was not enough, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party also made election commitments on: reform of the Senate and the Supreme Court appointment process; ensuring free votes for MPs on legislative items other than confidence bills, fulfillment of platform commitments, or “matters pertaining to our shared values and the protections guaranteed by the Charter”; redefining House of Commons’ procedural standing orders to prohibit omnibus bills; empowering and enriching Parliamentary Budget Office oversight; restoring the mandatory StatsCan long-form census; establishing “a pan-Canadian framework for combating climate change” within 90 days of the Paris conference that begins on November 30th; renewing Canada’s commitment to peacekeeping operations; immigration reform to enhance family re-unification; for aboriginal peoples: enacting the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, adopting and implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, closing the aboriginal educational achievement gap, working towards the elimination of the over representation of aboriginal people in custody, ensuring the provision of clean water on reserves and the introduction of a programme to build housing, and the establishment of a federal inquiry into missing and murdered aboriginal women; and, restoring and increasing funding for the arts, as well as for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

All of the “promises” above, to be turned into federal legislation, constitute much less than half of the 180 commitments made to Canadians by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party during the recent 78-day election campaign.

On Wednesday morning, November 4th at 10:30 a.m. EST, the newly elected Liberal Party of Canada majority will be sworn into Canada’s 43rd Parliament as Canada’s government, as the Right Honourable Justin Pierre James Trudeau becomes Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister, working alongside a Cabinet of trusted colleagues, twenty-eight Ministers of the Crown who will form government, and rule as the governing party of our nation.
Prime Minister-designate Trudeau, in a press conference held last week in the House of Commons Press Gallery Theatre (the first press conference of its kind in more than eight years) told the assembled press, and Canadians, in the moments following the swearing-in ceremony announcements will be made respecting the fufillment of Liberal party election commitments.
Despite the naysayers, both within and outside government, the first commitment to be filled will be the transport of 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada before year’s end, to be housed on the ten Canadian armed forces bases across Canada. There will also be an official announcement that the Premiers of the ten provinces and the Territories, and the leaders of Canada’s opposition parties, will accompany the Prime Minister as delegates to the Paris Climate Change Conference, that begins at the end of the month. Mr. Trudeau is likely to announce that the House will be called back into session in the second week of December, for a brief session of Parliament where the government will move to act on its legislative agenda.
At the top of the government’s December legislative agenda: implementation of the promised “middle class tax cut”, in order that such legislation might become policy, effective January 1, 2016.
Next on the government’s agenda: the formation of two Parliamentary committees, both of which are to report out on February 16, 2017: 1) an all-party committee on democratic reform, leading to a recommendation on the implementation of a form of proportional representation to be legislated as government policy governing the 2019 federal election; and 2) an all-party committee to provide recommendations on the implementation of a framework for the introduction of detailed and specific legislation on the legalization and regulation of marijuana in Canada, such groundbreaking legislation to be introduced in the 2017 spring session of Parliament.
Informed pundit speculation has it that Prime Minister Trudeau will announce a mid-winter session of Parliament — as early as mid-February, although that seems early to this writer — at which time the government will announce in the Speech from the Throne their legislative agenda for the term, followed by the announcement of the date for the introduction of the budget by the new Finance Minister (currently speculated to be either Liberal member Parliament for Toronto University-Rosedale, Chrystia Freeland, or recent Liberal Party Finance critic and Liberal member of Parliament for Nova Scotia Kings-Hants (formerly Annapolis Valley-Hants, a rural locale with which VanRamblings is intimately familiar), Scott Brison.

Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau holds a press conference in the Parliamentary Press Theatre, the first such press conference to be held in more than eight years.

Prime Minister Trudeau must be seen to be running an open government, and continue to be accessible (he’s their best salesman). As above, there are some hopeful early signs: holding an open press conference in the Parliamentary Press Theatre, and announcing to President Obama that Canadians troops will be pulled out of the Middle East before year’s end.
Make no mistake, the process of change will be slow, slower than most Canadians would wish, but as was the case with former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien — who implemented 78% of his promised Red Book agenda early in his first term of office — change will come.
Make no mistake, either, the government’s honeymoon will be short-lived as Mr. Trudeau and his Ministers will most assuredly be given a rough ride by the opposition, and by the media. Tom Mulcair, as leader of the New Democratic Party, and whoever it is the Conservative Party caucus chooses as their interim leader this upcoming Thursday, as well as whoever becomes the new leader of the Bloc Québécois, and re-elected leader of Canada’s Green Party, Elizabeth May, will hold the government to account, on behalf of and in the interests all Canadians, from sea to sea to sea.
Now is a time of hope, and change. Mr. Trudeau, don’t break our hearts.