Passover is a major, biblically derived Jewish holiday, a commemoration of Jewish liberation by God from slavery in ancient Egypt, their (our, for VanRamblings is a Jew) freedom as a nation under the leadership of Moses, commemorated by the story of the Exodus as described in The Five Books of Moses, most especially in the Book of Exodus.
As with Passover and the theme of liberation and freedom, that too is what our democracy promises us, and that is what Canadians will be voting for come this October, in Canada’s 43rd general election.
As Canadians find themselves at the beginning of our country’s quadrennial federal election season, those of the Jewish faith today celebrate the midway point of Passover, which commemoration began this past Friday evening, and will end late on this upcoming Saturday evening.
As the Jewish celebration of liberation, freedom and democracy draws to a close in just a few days, Canadians’ celebration of the three central tenets of democratic life across our nation is just now beginning.
Commencing with publication of VanRamblings columns effective this upcoming Monday, April 29th, VanRamblings will provide our own idiosyncratic insight into a variety of subjects, including the recent Jody Wilson-Raybould ‘scandal’ (sure not to please many), the state of our provincial governance (ditto, although overall, we’re supportive of our New Democrat government), and Vancouver’s municipal government — of which we will be somewhat critical, but much less so than you might imagine.
In the interim, we’ll leave you with our early prediction as to how the federal election will unfold late in the evening of Monday, October 21st …
With the Jody Wilson-Raybould ‘scandal’ fading back into the deep recesses of the consciousness of fickle Canadian voters, come Monday evening, October 21st, 2019, while the Liberals will end up losing seats in BC (5 – 8), Ontario (23+) and the Maritimes (6), they’ll pick up seats in Québec. The Conservatives will gain seats in BC (8 – 10), Ontario (23+), Québec (5 or more), and perhaps as many as a half dozen seats in the Maritimes.
Meanwhile, the NDP will be all but wiped out in Québec, taking their seat count down in that province from 16 (as of election night 2015) to one lone seat, that of the much-beloved Ruth Ellen Brosseau, in the riding of Berthier — Maskinongé. Meanwhile, the Greens are set to gain additional seats on Vancouver Island and in the Maritimes, and if Jane Philpott joins newlywed Elizabeth May’s ascendant Green party, a seat or two in Ontario.
Although we’re looking at an ugly election, as Justin Trudeau has predicted for months, the Liberals possess the most experienced and effective campaign team, are well-financed, and have in Justin Trudeau a born campaigner, who lives to interact with the electorate.
Andrew Scheer, sad to say, simply lacks Trudeau’s charisma, and although the Conservatives will gain seats in the next Parliament, we predict Scheer will not catch on with most of the electorate.
Jagmeet Singh, as with Trudeau, will also prove to be a first-rate campaigner, but what with 17 resignations and defections from his caucus in recent months, unless Mr. Singh catches fire with the electorate, the woefully underfunded federal New Democratic Party will find themselves having one helluva not-so-good time on the campaign trail.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth May’s political star is in its ascendancy, which will translate into votes for her from disaffected members of the Liberal, Conservative and New Democratic parties, resulting in an effective rump Green caucus in Canada’s next Parliament.
Take note: you read it here first.
After completing the writing of the above post, a friend posted a text message at the conclusion of a lengthy text tête-à-tête we were having on the upcoming federal election, resulting in the writing of the following …
For another, not too dissimilar projection, the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy’s Barry Kay last evening published his seat projection on the Global News website, giving one seat to Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party, and only two seats to Elizabeth May’s Green Party.
Source: Laurier Institute. Blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet between mid-March and mid-April, derived from over 15,000 individual interviews. Link provided by VanRamblings reader (friend and politico), Jacob Kojfman.
