Election tracking: CPAC-SES Poll, June 2, 2004.
EKOS, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Compas and Environics can say what they will, but when it comes to daily election tracking, VanRamblings tends to turn first to the overnight CPAC-SES results for the most authoritative results.
Okay, okay — maybe we’re a tad (a tad! — ed.) prejudiced against the prospects of a Conservative government, and CPAC-SES has tended, throughout, to publish results favouring the Liberals and the NDP.
And yes, one supposes, we are not entirely unthrilled that the Liberals are eight glorious points in front of the damnable Conservatives, as reflected in the CPAC-SES poll results published today. Of course, as you might well expect, VanRamblings is also more than a little bit over the moon that the New Democrats continue to gain the support of Canadians, and today find themselves up a full point in support — to 19% — since the outset of the election campaign only 11 short days ago.
To be fair to CPAC-SES — in respect of the equanimity and professional they bring to the arduous task of election tracking — VanRamblings will quote President & CEO of SES Research, Nikita James Nanos. From his e-mail today, Mr. Nanos writes, “CPAC-SES polling was the first to show the Liberal-Conservative gap narrowing (LP 34, CP 31) last Saturday. New Liberal campaign tactics seem to be working (though).”
In the current poll results scenario, Martin taking shots at Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is good for federal Liberal support, even if both Liberal leaders seem to have changed their tune since both the CPAC-SES and EKOS polls — above and below — were taken.
At least as of last night, support for the Liberals has indeed picked up, and momentum would once again appear to be on their side.
As Globe and Mail columist John Barber writes today, “Now that overeager pundits are busy assigning seats in the cabinet of prime minister Stephen (Firewall) Harper, it’s time for Her Majesty’s Loyal Torontonians to play their now-customary role in federal politics. That would be to get scared and rush back into the arms of the Liberal Party.”
Such would seem to be the case. Good for Torontonians. Good for us.
EKOS polling results, June 2, 2004.
For insight into Stephen Harper’s policies, as well as important 2004 federal election news events, click on VanRamblings’ full Decision Canada coverage.
