Today, VanRamblings was planning on publishing a satirical column on Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives aka the Canadian Taliban, but truth to tell we’re simply not in the mood. Instead, on this late August summer’s day, please find below a series of “items” of possible interest pertaining to #Elxn44.
Kiavash Najafi over at Press Progress, the publishing division of the left-wing Broadbent Institute think tank, writes …
“We’re more than a week into a snap election in Canada and the top question on everyone’s mind is still: Why are we having this election?”
Opinion polls have been consistently good for Trudeau’s party. The pandemic measures that came out of the minority parliament are popular with Canadians. And, until recently, every provincial government that went through an election during the pandemic ended up winning big.
Very good. Last year, poll after poll showed him with support between mid-30 and low-40 per cent, with the Conservatives performing much lower than their 2019 election results. A government’s ability to manage the timing of an election gives it an upper hand. But it’s not always a sure bet. Snap elections can snap back and snap hard.
So how’s Trudeau doing?
Not great, to be honest. We’re more than a week into the campaign and everyone is still wondering why we’re having this election. And his party is the only major party that hasn’t introduced a platform yet. Still, a lot can change in the next few weeks. At this point in the campaign, Trudeau is still first in most polls, but definitely not in the majority territory anymore.
And his drop in the polls isn’t helping the Conservatives much. Most projections suggest that Trudeau would see a modest increase to the number of his MP’s. Conservatives are likely to lose a few seats. It looks like Jagmeet Singh and the NDP could be the main beneficiaries of an election they didn’t want.”
Um, the projections above hardly match the latest polls. Whereas it seems likely that Jagmeet Singh’s NDP will pick up a few seats, as will Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives, the only reason why Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are hanging on — at least on Day 10 — is thanks to the almost complete collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote, and the record unpopularity of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, which may result in a seat gain of as many as six Liberal seats in Alberta, and as many as 20 additional seats in Québec.
Of course, it’s still very early in #Campaign44 — anything could happen.
Going negative. Justin Trudeau and members of his cabinet have been attacking Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives on mandatory vaccines, abortion and conscience rights, and universal health care. Former Liberal Rick Anderson, who morphed into a Reform Party / Canadian Alliance, and then Stephen Harper strategic advisor and acolyte, got to wondering …
Meanwhile, Mike McDonald, who ran Christy Clark’s miraculous come from behind 2013 British Columbia campaign for office, who now pours his thoughts into his Rosedeer blog, recently told Politico’s Zi-Ann Lum …
“These days, Conservatives are nowhere in Vancouver, so the riding of Vancouver-Granville is safe for the Liberals unless they get knocked off their stride which, of course, would be welcome news for high-profile NDP candidate Anjali Appadurai, who recently won the nomination race to represent Vancouver-Granville.
Anjali Appadurai, the high profile NDP 2021 hopeful in Vancouver Granville.
“Ridings the Liberals won in 2015 and lost in 2019 are probably the first places the Grits will look to win back seats,” says McDonald. “That means: Vancouver Granville; Steveston-Richmond East; Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge; Cloverdale-Langley City; Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon; and, in the Okanagan, the very winnable riding of Kelowna-Lake Country.”
“What with raging wildfires burning across the province, and what looks to be the nascent beginning of a fourth wave of the pandemic, climate change and COVID-19 vaccines are two issues that are likely to resonate with British Columbia voters as they head to the polls in mid-September,” suggests McDonald. “Although those are national issues, they might play out in British Columbia more so than other regions. If that comes to pass, the advantage would go to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.”
Meanwhile, B.C. riding-wise, Politico’s Nick Taylor-Vaisey weighs in with …
“Another riding Team Trudeau lost in 2019 was South Surrey-White Rock. It went blue in 2015, red in a 2017 byelection, and blue again in 2019. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is also looking to make gains in B.C. after losing Nanaimo-Ladysmith; Port Moody-Coquitlam; and Kootenay-Columbia.”
Wondering which ridings are in play in British Columbia? Now you know.
As always, VanRamblings will complete the day’s post with …
David Herle, Scott Reid, Jenni Byrne | Curse of Politics podcast | August 24, 2021.
