Category Archives: Politics

#BC Poli | BC NDP | British Columbia’s Natural Governing Party

BC Politics, Politics

The BC NDP as British Columbian's natural governing party

With the interim results of the current British Columbia provincial election only two days away, and as per regulations mandated by Elections BC, and as VanRamblings will not be writing about the election in the 24-hour period prior to October 24th, nor on E-Day itself, it’s time for us to weigh in with our wrap-up column on the 2020 British Columbia provincial election.
As VanRamblings has written previously, the B.C. NDP have run a high energy, flawless and humanist re-election campaign that early on defined Liberal opposition leader Andrew Wilkinson as a corrupt, Trump-like tool of B.C.’s wealthy billionaire class, and John “dad” Horgan as your best friend, the guy you’d most like to get together with over a beer, the results of the 2020 B.C. election all but a foregone conclusion in the minds of most.
The B.C. New Democrats will form the next provincial government with a comfortable and comforting majority, with Adrian Dix returning as British Columbia’s much-loved and much-respected, activist Health Minister — and all will be well with the world. Yes, post-election we can all set about to prepare for the upcoming holiday season, with a little more jingle jangle in our pockets thanks to the election commitment John Horgan made, that B.C. couples will receive $1000, and B.C. singles $500, due to arrive no later than early December, along with the promised retroactive rent freeze for renters, that will last all the way through to December 31st, 2021.
In 2020, the B.C. New Democrats have positioned themselves as the progressive, forward-thinking, fiscally responsible, and diverse British Columbia political party that seeks to represent the interests of all wage-earning British Columbians — that’s the vast majority of working people in our province — and seniors, while looking after the interests of families by ensuring the provision of affordable child care, and an education system that will see new state-of-the-art schools built across B.C., and every primary, middle and secondary student attending class in schools across the province that are seismically-safe, where parents will no longer have to fundraise for playgrounds, or fund basic school supplies for their children.
As such, the British Columbia New Democratic Party have positioned themselves as the new, perpetual natural governing party of B.C., supported by an undeniable coalition of working people, union members, parents, small business owners, and members of the LGBTQ2+, Indigenous and diverse persons of colour communities who comprise the British Columbia we all love, where access to opportunity is available to everyone.
The sobriquet “natural governing party” was initially deployed to characterize the success of the federal Liberal Party in the 20th century, the notion of a “natural governing party” well entrenched in the literature on Canadian party politics. The NDP — firmly embedded in the provincial political culture of British Columbia dating back to the days of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) in the 1930s, transformed themselves in 1961 to the newly renamed New Democratic Party.

The cultural mosaic that comprises the citizenry of British Columbia

Since 2017, John Horgan’s NDP has developed an image of the New Democratic Party that projects a policy path which both pursues and is congruent with the touchstones of our province’s ethos, while assembling a vigorous electoral coalition comprised of working class persons of European origin, as well as the 31% of British Columbia’s population comprised of persons of east, southeast and south Asian, middle eastern, Latin, central and south American, and African descent, and including the 5.9% of our province’s First Nations’ Indigenous population, while drawing in the young and focusing on the health, safety & welfare of our senior citizen populace, ensuring opportunity for all, and an inclusive B.C. for all of its citizens.

British Columbia's New Democratic Party | Working for You

So, let’s take a moment to see how the three main political parties have defined themselves in the 2020 British Columbia provincial election. VanRamblings hasn’t written a great deal about the B.C. Green Party during the course of this election — should B.C. Green leader Sonia Furstenau appear to retain her seat when election results are published on Saturday night, we’ll correct that oversight in a column to be published next week.
The BC NPD have placed themselves smack dab in the centre of the political spectrum
John Horgan’s BC NDP are defining themselves as, essentially, an activist, union-supporting version of Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberal party, or more accurately a Canadian version of Joe Biden’s Democratic Party, placing the NDP smack dab in the middle of the political spectrum, taking up the territory where, in 2020, the B.C. Liberals oughta be: promoting diversity and social justice, while also strong on the economy — but that’s not the case, so the empty space ceded to them by Andrew Wilkinson has been taken up by the political party that is set to become British Columbia’s new, natural governing party, a broad, non-scary coalition party dedicated to a strong economy, and focused on health care, child care, Indigenous reconciliation, education, jobs, our province’s thriving cultural sector, public transportation, the natural resources industry, and B.C.’s flourishing green, high tech industry, a low key government ensuring prosperity for all.

2020-bc-liberals.jpg

The B.C. Liberals, as has become abundantly clear in this election, is liberal in name only. With a name stolen from Gordon Wilson in the early 1990s, the B.C. Liberals have since Gordon Campbell took the reins of the party fashioned themselves as latter day pavement politics Socreds, and in recent years, as (increasingly) far-right-of-centre Reform Party Stephen Harper Conservatives, closely associated with the fear-based politics of Donald Trump and the U.S. Republican party — which, by the way, worked for the Socreds and the B.C. Liberals for years, but with diminishing returns during the course of the 2020 British Columbia election. The B.C. Liberals are a party of the past, not the future. In time, they’ll either fade away, adopt the Conservative name, or re-fashion themselves as the B.C. Party.

Sonia Furstenau, B.C. Green Party leader

Unless B.C. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau can get herself re-elected in the B.C. NDP stronghold riding of Cowichan Valley — which is a tall order, given that most insider party polling shows her running third in the riding, with both the B.C. Liberals and a surprisingly ungenerous BC NDP wishing her prospects for re-election ill, a salutary future for the B.C. Green Party, and the Canadian Green Party movement, in general, does not bode well — which would be pitiable, indeed. Should Ms. Furstenau fail to win back her Cowichan seat — a possibility which VanRamblings finds to be unthinkable, and contrary to the best interests of British Columbians — the electoral fortunes of the Green Party are done, which would be a tragedy for us all.
Sonia Furstenau has moved Green politics in Canada to where it should have been since the founding of the Green Party movement in Canada: as eco-socialists, as concerned with the welfare of our province and our nation, as with the environment — which, as any thinking person knows, are inextricably entwined. Sonia Furstenau is the great hope of our future.
Should Ms. Furstenau appear to prevail on Saturday night, we’ll expand on the theme expressed above, and set about to dedicate an entire column to Ms. Furstenau and a rejuvenated Green Party movement under her visionary, Jacinda Ardern-like leadership — long overdue and full of hope.

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VanRamblings will return next week to conduct a four-part political post-mortem on the 2020 British Columbia provincial election campaign. In the meantime, tomorrow you can look forward to our regular Arts Friday coverage, on Saturday a new Stories of a Life, and then … Music Sunday.

#BC Poli | 3 Days to Go | BC NDP Campaign | The Tweet Edition

BC Politics, Politics


Spirits have never been higher than is the case with the broad swath of candidates running with John Horgan & British Columbia’s New Democratic Party, as we catapult towards election day on Saturday, October 24th.
After 29 days on the campaign trail, the younger, more diverse contingent of New Democrats are energized — and having loads of fun, as can be seen in Ravi Kahlon’s tweet directly below — which is to say, the dancing, and the sentiment expressed in Arrested Development’s Metamorphosis mix of Sly Stone’s Everyday People, perfectly expressing what the B.C. New Democratic Party is all about in the B.C. NDP’s winning 2020 campaign …


Although, pollster Angus Reid reports that the race is tightening …


Global BC Legislative reporter Keith Baldrey disagrees …


In fact, John Horgan’s New Democrats maintain their twenty-three-point-five per cent lead across both the Metro Vancouver region, and along the entire length of Vancouver Island — although the race is tightening up some in traditional B.C. Liberal strongholds like the Fraser Valley, South Central BC and the Okanagan, the Cariboo and the Interior, and the North.
Even so, Nathan Cullen is heavily favoured to re-take the Stikine riding, given that retired Minister of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, Doug Donaldson, had held the riding with fifty-two per cent of the vote in 2009, 2013 and 2017 — all of which looks good to soon-to-be-Premier-again John Horgan, and Mr. Cullen, as Mr. Horgan’s probable incoming Finance Minister, replacing the retired Carole James.
No, this is a race that is all over but the counting, although the B.C. NDP aren’t taking anything for granted (why would they, given 2013?), as expressed by Vancouver-Point Grey NDP candidate David Eby in this tweet:


VanRamblings will be back with our final, catch-all, throw the kltchen sink at the election edition of Decision 2020 Thursday, when we’ll posit that the New Democrats are set to become British Columbia’s natural governing party for the next 50 years! As well, we’ll bring out our crystal ball to predict who’ll make it into John Horgan’s Cabinet — among other foofaraw.

In the 2020 British Columbia provincial election, vote BC NDP

#BC Poli | How The 2020 BC Election Differs From 2013 | Pt. 2

BC Politics, Politics

In 2013, pundit and the media predicted that NDP leader Adrian Dix could not lose the election

In 2013, that the Adrian Dix-led British Columbia New Democratic Party could lose the provincial election was unthinkable. Mr. Dix was popular. Ms. Clark was not. After 12 years in power, British Columbians were fed up with the B.C. Liberals. Change was in the air. And then the election happened.


308 final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013

Éric Grenier’s 308.com final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013

Despite polls which showed Adrian Dix and the BC NDP ahead by as many as 14 points, in the end such couldn’t have been further from the truth, as Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals went on to win a 17-seat majority government, winning 50 of 84 seats in the British Columbia Legislature for a surprising and comfortable win for the first elected female British Columbia Premier.
What happened? Why did the Christy Clark-led B.C. Liberal party prevail, and why were the hopes, dreams and aspirations of B.C. New Democratic Party followers everywhere quashed, devastated, causing despondency?
Of course, there was the role Maple Leaf Strategies pollster Dimitri Pantazopoulos played, which we explored in Part 1 of this two-part series.
Next, there were the polls — which were wrong, way wrong, off on another planet wrong. So wrong, in fact, that it caused polling companies across North America to change the way they interpreted the raw data that came flowing into their offices.
Angus Reid was the first pollster to issue a mea culpa, some two months after the provincial election, writing …

“The principal flaw in our methodology was that we represented voters under 35 (where the NDP held a commanding lead) in relation to their proportionate share of the BC population (roughly 30 per cent) rather than in relation to their actual share of voters (closer to 15 per cent according to research conducted by Elections BC after the 2009 contest). Had we made this one change in our turnout projection model the final Angus Reid poll published on May 9 would have shown the NDP lead diminish to only three points.”

Of course, 20-20 hindsight looks good — but retrospect didn’t look so good for NDPers, who had believed Eric Grenier’s 338.com poll (above), his site the then credible Canadian equivalent of Nate Silver’s American fivethirtyeight.com aggregate polling website. Note should be made that following Mr. Grenier’s own mea culpa, the CBC hired him as their pollster, which he remains to this day.
When covering the 2015 federal election campaign, while traipsing through the West End one day to visit each of the Vancouver Centre campaigns, I happened into Hedy Fry’s Liberal campaign office, and had an impromptu sit down with the campaign manager (please forgive me, but I can’t recall his name), by far the friendliest of the campaign managers with whom I spoke that day, who told me, “Raymond, I always run a campaign as if I am 10 points behind. That’s the winning ethos for any successful campaign. Never believe the polls, always run your campaign as if you’re behind, keep staff and volunteers motivated and happy, and work your tail off.”
Much to their chagrin, the New Democrats believed the polls. Never again.
How the 2020 and 2013 British Columbia Election Campaigns Differ
1. A Campaign of Ideas vs A Campaign Attacking Your Opponent

In the months leading up to the 2013 B.C. provincial election, New Democratic Party leader Adrian Dix issued an edict to the party, and to his campaign officials …

“We’re going to run a clean campaign. We will not attack Christy Clark, the B.C. Liberals, or their history as government over the past 12 years. Instead, we’re going to run a relentlessly positive campaign, a campaign of ideas that speaks to the angels of the better natures of British Columbians right across the province — and that my friends will win us the 2013 British Columbia provincial election, and a majority government.”

Now, we’ve all seen Adrian Dix these past months standing next to Dr. Bonnie Henry at the podium, and as is the case with her, when referring to the deaths of British Columbians due to the ravages of COVID-19, both have a great deal of trouble not breaking down in tears. We recognize that as compassion, as humanity and caring — and not to put too fine a point on the matter, it is Mr. Dix’s innate humanity and compassion that will carry the BC NDP to victory once all the votes have been counted next month.
Meanwhile, back in 2013, the B.C. Liberals were having none of this “nicey nicey” campaign, as they went after Mr. Dix with hammer and tong, castigating him for his role in writing a letter, as then Chief of Staff to Premier Glen Clark, to support his timeline of events involving a casino application, and then proceeded to hammer Mr. Dix into the ground with the weathervane ad above, which ran with voiceover as 15-second stingers at the beginning and end of each group of evening newscast commercials on CBC, Global and CTV — at least 12 times an hour hammering Adrian Dix for having changed his mind on the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline (he came out against it), mid-campaign, and at variance with the party policy that had been developed by NDP Energy shadow minister John Horgan.
In the annals of B.C. election campaigns, 2013 was one of the dirtiest ever.
But that was then, and this is now. 2020. And who is John Horgan’s Chief of Staff? That’s right, Geoff Meggs, who spent 9 years as a Vision Vancouver City Councillor, in a municipal political party that learned the lessons of Stephen Harper well, and ran consistently dirty — and in their case, class-based — campaigns against their Non-Partisan Association opposition.
In 2013, Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals defined Adrian Dix as a weak, indecisive leader who would thrust B.C.’s thriving Liberal party-led economy into the ditch. In 2020, the NDP have defined B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson — hardly the warmest and most engaging character — as a tool of his rich friends, working for “them” and not for “you”, a despicable excuse for a politician and someone who definitely does not have yours, your family’s, neighbours, colleagues and friends best interests at a heart.
The narrative the NDP have created about Andrew Wilkinson has stuck to him like glue throughout the campaign, and has defined him in the eyes of voters across the province, which by campaign’s end will lead to an overwhelming, unrepentant defeat for Wilkinson & his B.C. Liberal party.
2. 2013 Debate performance. Christy Clark Trounces a Nervous Adrian Dix. 2020. John Horgan Trounces an Uncomfortable Andrew Wilkinson.

bc-leaders-debate.jpg

In 2013, whether it was the televised debate, or the withering radio debate on CKNW — which for years had Christy Clark in their employ as an afternoon talk show host — given her comfort with being inside the studio where she’d worked for years, where she had developed a friendly, calm and reassuring demeanour, and given Mr. Dix’s twitchy, uncomfortable and often confused and confusing debate performance, both election debates served to reinforce the notion promoted by the B.C. Liberals that Dix was unfit for office, and would make a lousy Premier. Score one for the Libs.
In 2020, it’s a whole different story. According to various of the post debate polls, 53% of British Columbians were favourably impressed with the performance of John Horgan, followed by Sonia Furstenau at 48%, with Andrew Wilkinson trailing with only a 36% favourable rating among British Columbia voters who tuned into the broadcast. Score one for the Dippers.
3. 2013 BC Libs Campaign Style = Christy “Energizer Bunny” Clark vs Dix. 2020 NDP Style = Everywhere. On Your Side, Always Working for You.

hard-hat-composite.jpg

In 2013, the B.C. Liberals ran a flawless, high energy “hard hat” campaign that had the Premier making ten stops a day, every day, 7 days a week for the duration of the campaign, a high energy, relentlessly positive “chicken in every pot” campaign that promised billions in tax revenue to the province from LNG, creating the condition that would all but eliminate taxes for working people, yet provide for better education, child care, transportation and housing outcomes than could be dreamed, all provided by a Clark administration that would create a paradise on Earth for all British Columbians. Of course it was all a lie — but it sounded damn good!


In 2020, Andrew Wilkinson’s B.C. Liberals have run one of the most inept and tone deaf election campaigns this province has ever seen, as Mr. Wilkinson and his party has lurched from one crisis to another — whether it was the sexist Zoom roast that targeted 35-year-old North Vancouver Lonsdale NDP MLA Bowinn Ma, or the homo-and-transphobic / “Contraception is Eugenics” campaign of Chilliwack-Kent Liberal MLA Laurie Throness (who has since resigned), to Langley Township Councillor / BC Liberal candidate Margaret Kunst who spoke vehemently against a rainbow crosswalk, it’s been one bozo eruption after another for the B.C. Liberals, who haven’t found an effective campaign message, running one of the lowest energy election campaigns ever by a mainstream provincial party in the province of British Columbia. Score Another One for the Dippers.
Here’s B.C. Liberal Membership Chair Nicole Paul criticizing Mr. Wilkinson …


And here’s Jas Johal, B.C. Liberal candidate in Richmond-Queensborough …


And this is what passes in 2020 with the B.C. Liberal party, as Trump-style Republican party scare-mongering. Um … inadvisable , Mr. Wilkinson …

Honestly, do you know any BC NDP candidate that you would consider to be “radical”?

4. 2020. Diversity and Inclusion vs Sexism, All Male Slates, and Misogyny.

In 2020, the B.C. Liberal Party runs an exclusively male slate of candidates in Metro Vancouver(Clockwise from upper left) the all-male B.C. Liberal candidate slate in Vancouver: Michael Lee, Alex Reid, David Grewal, George Vassilas, Paul LePage, Andrew Wilkinson, Cole Anderson, Sam Sullivan, George Affleck, Jon Ellacott, and Mark Bowen.

On Saturday, February 3rd, 2018, when Australian-born Andrew Wilkinson, a former B.C. Minister of Advanced Education and Minister of Technology, Innovation and Citizens’ Services in the Christy Clark government won the B.C. Liberal leadership race, he had before him a golden opportunity to renew a political party that had lost the 2017 British Columbia election, to diversify the party he now lead, and to draw in new BIPOC and LGBTQ2+ candidates, in order that his right-of-centre B.C. political party might be at least appear to present a more representative cross-section of the British Columbia electorate when the province next went to the polls.
Yet, when John Horgan called an election on Monday, September 21st to go to the people to not only seek a rewewed mandate, but to conduct a referendum on how the people of B.C. felt his government had responded to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, who had been leader of his party for over a year and a half, more than enough time to diversify his party and present a new, fresh face to the British Columbia electorate, presented the same old rag tag collection of out of touch anti-LGBTQ2+ and misogynist B.C. Liberal candidates.
Just take a look above at the exclusively male slate of candidates the B.C. Liberal party has on offer in Vancouver in the 2020 election. Little wonder that Wilkinson’s B.C. Liberal party is polling so poorly with women voters.

The BC NDP are running six diverse women candidates in Vancouver in the 2020 BC election

In the meantime, in Vancouver, the BC NDP are running Niki Sharma in Vancouver-Hastings, Brenda Bailey in Vancouver-False Creek, Mable Elmore in Vancouver-Kensington, Heather McQuillan in Vancouver-Quilchena, Tesicca Truong in Vancouver-Fairview, and Melanie Mark in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant. Now, let’s count, shall we? B.C. Liberal female candidates running in Vancouver in 2020 = 0. BC NDP Vancouver woman candidates = 6. Causes one to stop and think for a moment: just who does the B.C. Liberal party presume to represent? Yep, we’re talkin’ older rich men.
In 2020, the B.C. NDP are also running 5 star Indigenous candidates …

In 2020, the BC NDP are running 5 high profile indigenous candidates in the provincial electionLeft to right, Aaron Sumexheltza (Fraser Nicola), Ann Marie Sam (Nechako Lakes), Melanie Mark (Vancouver-Mount Pleasant) Nicole Halbauer (Skeena), Anna Thomas (Kamloops-South Thompson)

In 2020, diversity thy name is British Columbia’s New Democratic Party.
The BC NDP learned their lesson in 2013 to, in future, run a more diverse slate of candidates, representing the full spectrum of British Columbians, including Indigenous, LGBTQ2+, and the diverse persons of colour communities which comprise the British Columbia in which we all live.
The B.C. Liberal party on diversity and inclusion? Lesson not learned.

The 2017 BC Liberal team

Let’s face it, let’s get real for a moment.
In 2020, the B.C. Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson have run a Trumpian campaign of intolerance for differences — perhaps not necessarily meaning to — since the outset of the campaign. With only four days to go before Decision 2020 comes to a close, there is simply no coming back from one of the most botched political campaigns in British Columbia history.
Fundamentally, how do the 2013 and 2020 British Columbia election campaigns compare? In 2013, Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals ran a high energy, focused campaign that never, ever went off message.
Although Ms. Clark lost her own seat in Vancouver-Point Grey to newcomer David Eby, the B.C. Liberals won 50 seats, a comfortable majority, and at least for awhile, the confidence of the B.C. electorate.
In 2020, John Horgan’s B.C. NDP have run a textbook winning campaign, staying on message, reinforcing the diversity in the party and progressive values which best reflect the values of the people of British Columbia, and with only the Nathan Cullen misstep this past weekend, the 2020 B.C.NDP campaign has been flawless, high energy, positive, and — unbeatable.

The tale will be told no later than mid-month next month, when all the votes of British Columbians are counted. In the same way that Donald Trump will lose the November 3rd U.S. election in record numbers, in British Columbia, John Horgan and the New Democrats remain on track for a majority government, perhaps even a massive majority government.

#BC Poli | How The 2020 BC Election Differs From 2013 | Pt. 1

BC Politics, Politics

2013 British Columbia provincial election vs 2020 B.C. election

Having won the leadership of the B.C. Liberal party on Saturday, February 26, 2011, the newly anointed, but unelected, Premier Christy Clark had two years to put her imprimatur on the party of government before she was compelled by law to call a provincial election for May 14, 2013.

Meanwhile, the British Columbia New Democratic party, having jettisoned party leader Carole James also had a newly-elected leader, Adrian Dix, who achieved a three-ballot win on April 17, 2011, defeating his challengers, Mike Farnworth (recent Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General), and John Horgan (current B.C. Premier) in a closely contested race.

Hope reigned for both British Columbia mainstream political parties.
As fortune would have it, though, with Ms. Clark in the Premier’s chair, B.C. Liberal prospects for re-election were dire, despite the new leader, arising from the memory of folks who were less than pleased with the HST fiasco, that saw the resignation of both B.C. Liberal Premier Gordon Campbell, as well as his Finance Minister, Vancouver-Quilchena MLA, Colin Hansen.

UBC's Sauder School of Business Election Prediction Market analysis
UBC’s Sauder School of Business 2013 B.C. Election Prediction Market forecast

As the clock ticked down towards the 2013 provincial election, month after month polls showed Ms. Clark and her B.C. Liberal party to be often far behind Adrian Dix and the NDP, with an average of 36.5% support among the electorate, while an invigorated B.C. NDP with Adrian Dix at the helm was polling consistently at around 46% among declared voters.

The forces of capitalism in our province were verklempt about the potential for an Adrian Dix-led BC NDP forming government after May 14, 2013.

Dimitri Pantazopoulos, the right-of-centre federal, provincial, municipal election whisperer
Dimitri Pantazopoulos, right-of-centre federal, provincial, civic election whisperer

The B.C. Liberals and their powerful backers had an ace up their sleeve, though, in the form of renowned Stephen Harper pollster, boy genius Dimitri Pantazopoulos — who had not only delivered government after government to Stephen Harper, but had performed the same function for the B.C. Liberals and the right-of-centre Vancouver municipal political party, the strangely named and alleged (but not really) Non-Partisan Association.

In February of 2013, Mr. Pantazopoulos and his team from Maple Leaf Strategies travelled out to B.C. to conduct some very expensive and intensive polling across all, then, 84 British Columbia constituencies. After a month in the field, Mr. Pantazopoulos reported back to B.C. Liberal campaign manager Mike McDonald and Premier Clark, telling them this …

“Of the 84 ridings across the province, 34 are unwinnable. The B.C. Liberal party shouldn’t spend a plug nickel in those ridings, should write them off, and focus on the 50 ridings where the party has a good chance of prevailing come the evening of Saturday, May 14th. You’ll want to make sure that you have first-rate candidates in those 50 ridings, who are well known to voters, and can run a winning local campaign. The party must place massive resources into those ridings in order to ensure a win.

As U.S. Speaker of the House Tip 'O Neill once said, "All Politics is Local" And so it is.
As U.S. Speaker of the House Tip ‘O Neill once said, “All Politics is Local.”

For my part, my team of leading strategists I’ll be bringing out west from Maple Leaf Strategies will conduct nightly polling in those 50 ridings, to ensure that we have the pulse of the electorate in each of those 50 winnable ridings. I’ll let you know what the issue of the day is in each of those ridings, and your communications team will have to write a press release ready for distribution first thing the following morning, and have a campaign official meet with each of the candidates in the winnable ridings to instruct the candidate as to what to say when the press comes calling.

The B.C. Liberal party must run a hyper-local election campaign — that’s the only way you’re going to win when you’re so far down in the polls.”

Turning to the Premier, Dimitri Pantazopoulos told Ms. Clark, “Come election night, you’re going to win 50 seats and form a majority government. I am going to put my reputation on the line, and tell you right now that I guarantee a 50-seat win for you on May 14th. You can take that to the bank.”

Many in the B.C. Liberal party thought that Mr. Pantazopoulos was talking out of his hat, that he was nuts — but the only voices that counted among the din were that of Mr. McDonald and Premier Clark, who voiced full confidence in Mr. Pantazopoulos to pull out a majority win for the B.C. Liberal party. And thus, one of the central tenets of the 2013 B.C. Liberal British Columbia election campaign was in place, no questions asked.

In fact, Mr. Pantazopoulos and his crack team of Maple Leaf strategists were out in the field every night, specific communications were drafted for each of candidates in the 50 winnable ridings ready for distribution each morning, and 50 senior B.C. Liberal campaign officials were on the ground with the local candidates prepping each candidate on what to say to the press, and the issue to focus on that day on the campaign trail.

On election night 2013, May 14th, with Vancouver-based real estate marketer and B.C. Liberal financial guru Bob Rennie standing by her side, Dimitri Pantazopoulos looked Premier Clark directly in the eye, telling her, “Premier Clark, you’ve got this in the bag. I promised you a 50-seat majority government, and in just a couple of hours, I’ll deliver those 50 seats to you. By 8:30pm, media across the province will be reporting a landslide win for the B.C. Liberal party.”

Dimitri Pantazopoulos' Maple Leaf Strategies Research Company

Indeed, as per the graphic at the top of today’s post, Dimitri Pantazopoulos was right: contrary to the polls, Premier Clark was handily elected as B.C. Premier, with a comfortable 17-seat majority government, having defeated a now stunned and beleaguered British Columbia New Democratic Party.

Was Mr. Pantazopoulos a genius, had he pulled off the impossible? Here’s what a fellow pundit had to say to VanRamblings last week when we were discussing the role of Dimitri Pantazopoulos in the 2013 British Columbia provincial election …

“I know Dimitri. I like Dimitri. I’ve worked with Dimitri, and I can tell you, he’s a good guy. Was he solely responsible for the B.C. Liberal win in 2013, when we were working on opposite sides of the fence? I’d have to say no to that. But, let’s face it, Raymond, there’s no arguing with the results. Dimitri promised 50 seats, he delivered 50 seats. That counts for something.”

So, maybe Dimitri Pantazopoulos is not quite the boy genius VanRamblings painted his as on social media last week.

Certainly, there were other factors at play that contributed to the diminution of the BC New Democrat campaign, and the rise of Premier Clark and the B.C. Liberals, a topic we’ll explore in part two, tomorrow.

For today, let us leave you with this.

2020, Andrew Wilkinson campaigning in Richmond

In 2020, when Dimitri Pantazopoulos arrived in BC in early September — as a “snap” B.C. election seemed a near certainty — Maple Leaf Strategies intensively polled across the province for two weeks, and here’s what they found: the B.C. Liberals were a lock to win only seventeen seats, although the party might be competitive in another fifteen ridings.

Mr. Pantazopoulos advised B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson that his becoming 37th Premier of the province was not in the cards, that in order to avoid embarrassment, the party must focus on the thirty-two winnable ridings, and pour party resources into those ridings.

And thus the 2020 campaign has played out.

The B.C. Liberal party and Mr. Pantazopoulos and his Maple Leaf Strategies team are laser focused on 32 ridings, in Richmond, in Surrey, in Langley and the Fraser Valley, in the Okanagan and in the Interior and the North, where the party continues to be either a few points behind the New Democrats or are running a neck-and-neck campaign.

In 2020, the B.C. Liberals are in a fight for their lives, are not looking to pick up seats, but maintain as many of the seats they currently hold in the Legislature, as possible. Andrew Wilkinson knows Sam Sullivan will lose in Vancouver-False Creek — there’s no love loss between the two, and although Mr. Wilkinson regrets losing the seat, it’s more than made up for by not having Mr. Sullivan in the B.C. Liberal caucus.

In the final week of the campaign, you can expect to see Mr. Wilkinson focusing on Surrey, Richmond, the Fraser Valley, Kamloops / the Shuswap, south central B.C., Prince George & region, Skeena & the North. Everything else is a write-off, and unworthy of the leader’s time, and party resources.

Cropped photo of former NDP MP Nathan Cullen, and current BC NDP Stikine candidate

Certainly, the foofaraw around comments made by star Stikine candidate Nathan Cullen have done nothing to either aid the cause of Mr. Cullen — John Horgan’s likely next Finance Minister — nor Skeena NDP candidate Nicole Halbauer, both of whom were expected to win in walk. No more.

All things being equal though, and barring any more NDP self-inflicted wounds, John Horgan and the B.C. New Democrats remain on track to form a majority government in Victoria, thanks in large measure to a textbook, near faultless and winning 2020 NDP campaign, and the fine work of recent — and one would hope, soon again — British Columbia Health Minister Adrian Dix in what is, after all, the “pandemic election”, where the health of British Columbians and fighting COVID-19 remains top of mind for voters.

C’mon back tomorrow to VanRamblings, for Part 2 of our “getting down to brass tacks” reasons as to why and how the 2020 British Columbia election remains significantly different than the 2013 provincial election campaign.

338 aggregate polling on the British Columbia provincial election, published October 18, 2020