Election tracking: CPAC-SES Poll, June 2, 2004.

EKOS, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Compas and Environics can say what they will, but when it comes to daily election tracking, VanRamblings tends to turn first to the overnight CPAC-SES results for the most authoritative results.
Okay, okay — maybe we’re a tad (a tad! — ed.) prejudiced against the prospects of a Conservative government, and CPAC-SES has tended, throughout, to publish results favouring the Liberals and the NDP.
And yes, one supposes, we are not entirely unthrilled that the Liberals are eight glorious points in front of the damnable Conservatives, as reflected in the CPAC-SES poll results published today. Of course, as you might well expect, VanRamblings is also more than a little bit over the moon that the New Democrats continue to gain the support of Canadians, and today find themselves up a full point in support — to 19% — since the outset of the election campaign only 11 short days ago.
To be fair to CPAC-SES — in respect of the equanimity and professional they bring to the arduous task of election tracking — VanRamblings will quote President & CEO of SES Research, Nikita James Nanos. From his e-mail today, Mr. Nanos writes, “CPAC-SES polling was the first to show the Liberal-Conservative gap narrowing (LP 34, CP 31) last Saturday. New Liberal campaign tactics seem to be working (though).”
In the current poll results scenario, Martin taking shots at Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is good for federal Liberal support, even if both Liberal leaders seem to have changed their tune since both the CPAC-SES and EKOS polls — above and below — were taken.
At least as of last night, support for the Liberals has indeed picked up, and momentum would once again appear to be on their side.
As Globe and Mail columist John Barber writes today, “Now that overeager pundits are busy assigning seats in the cabinet of prime minister Stephen (Firewall) Harper, it’s time for Her Majesty’s Loyal Torontonians to play their now-customary role in federal politics. That would be to get scared and rush back into the arms of the Liberal Party.”
Such would seem to be the case. Good for Torontonians. Good for us.

EKOS polling results, June 2, 2004.

For insight into Stephen Harper’s policies, as well as important 2004 federal election news events, click on VanRamblings’ full Decision Canada coverage.

copyright John Maclennan, at rabble.ca

For insight into Stephen Harper’s policies, as well as important 2004 federal election news events, click on VanRamblings’ full Decision Canada coverage.

Could the Liberals being doing any worse, three days into Week Two of the federal election campaign?
According to the latest EKOS poll, the Liberals are sitting at 34% of decided voters (a drop of 5% since the outset of the campaign), while the Conservatives continue to gain strength across Canada, with a 30% showing. In Ontario, according to a just-released Ipsos-Reid poll, the two parties are in a dead heat, with 36% support among decided voters.
As Kevin Brennan, at Tilting at Windmills, writes “the Liberals (are) in serious free-fall.” The Ipsos-Reid poll warns that the Liberals may not have bottomed out yet …

The poll suggests 66 per cent of Canadians believe it is time for a change, up from 60 per cent two weeks ago. Those numbers are highest in Alberta and Ontario.
According to the responses given, the leader with the least amount of momentum is Martin. Only 11 per cent of those polled said their opinion of the Liberal leader and his party had improved over the last few weeks, compared to 47 per cent who said it had worsened. Thirty-six per cent said their opinion has “stayed the same.”

Panic has obviously begun to be felt among Liberals, as the Martin forces have turned to disaffected confidantes of Jean Chrétien for help with a campaign that’s stalled and trending towards a minority government (and not necessarily for the Natural Governing Party).
In a wrap-up of today’s news, Global-TV’s Kevin Newman reports that “a national seat projection is raising the very real possibility that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives could form the next government … if we voted today, the Liberals would win 129 seats — 26 fewer than needed for a majority government, the Conservatives keep edging up and would now pull 105 seats, the Bloc would win 53 seats, and the NDP would win 21 seats.”
If this scenario were to occur on election day, neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives could form government without the support of the Bloc Québécois. Needless to say, the deal-making has already started, including “decentralization of federal powers,” as a Bloc bargaining tool.
While campaigning in New Westminster, BC today, NDP leader Jack Layton warned Canadians not to allow an alliance between the Tories and the Bloc, saying “We would have a Conservative party that wants to take the country apart joining with a party that actively wants to split the country apart.”
Calling the election when he did, may well prove to be not only a fatal political error for Prime Minister Martin, but for the country, as well.

Welcome to the first in a series of daily wrap-ups of cross-Canada election coverage. VanRamblings will strive each day to bring issues of importance to Canadians to the fore, and point you towards the most provocative election commentary published on the ’Net each day.
Canadians have elected eight minority governments over 37 campaigns, and those governments have created pivotal law: universal medicare, housing co-operatives, the Canada Pension Plan, and official bilingualism.
Tonight’s Decision Canada coverage begins with a video report (RealPlayer required) by CBC’s Susan Bonner, in Ottawa.
Not everyone agrees that a minority government is in the offing, though.
Kevin Brennan, one of the moderators at Tilting at Windmills, believes that we’ll see “An uptick in Conservative support in the next couple of weeks, followed by a substantial drop in NDP support as people move to the Liberals to prevent a Conservative win. And if a third to half of NDPers do that, Paul Martin will win his majority after all.”
That certainly isn’t a belief shared by Conservative leader Stephen Harper, who says in this Globe and Mail article, that he’s seeking advice from a “large number of Conservatives across the country on what would need to be done on transition.”
Oh, poor, poor federal NDP leader Jack Layton, who’s already contemplating the role his party would play in a Liberal minority government. In today’s Winnipeg Free Press, University of Calgary professor Keith Archer poses the question Will (The) NDP Hold the Axe?, and portends the consequences.
And, do you really believe that Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe has formally ruled out an alliance with the ‘new’ Conservatives should they win the plurality of seats necessary to be considered for government?
Meanwhile, Globe and Mail columnist Roy McGregor writes that “a minority government can hold an enormous attraction — especially when that country is not likely to do much harm to itself or to anyone else by having a government that could blow up at any given moment.” The real thrust of his piece, though, is captured in the headline, ‘Minority governments give Canadians what they like: a lot more grist for griping’.
Okay, okay — hold on one damn minute!
As Arjun Singh writes, “I am really surprised with the tone of what I am reading today. PM turns to Chretien’s people. Harper planning a freaking transition. We got FOUR weeks left. It’s anybody’s election.”

Continue reading Decision Canada: We’re Gonna Get A Minority Government? →