VanRamblings continues to believe that the British Columbia New Democratic Party will lose the 2024 provincial election.
In fact, the current circumstance is so bad for the party, and its leader David Eby, chances are 50/50 that Mr. Eby will lose his Vancouver-Point Grey seat.
The public seems not to care that John Rustad and the Conservative Party of British Columbia are fielding a surfeit of sexist, misogynist, racist, homophobic and transphobic, climate change denying, reproductive rights denying hate mongers — by no means are we saying that this ne’ er-do-well retinue of antediluvian B.C. Conservative Party candidates represent the entirety, or even a majority, of the B.C. Conservative candidates running for office under the Conservative banner — but rather the desire for change, the anger at what many consider to be an arrogant David Eby-led B.C. NDP administration has proved so concerning, the party in power for the past seven years will lose government eight short days from now.
At dissolution, the B.C. NDP held 55 seats: the party is set to lose up to 18 seats …
- Vancouver Island. North Island, Courtenay-Comox and Nanaimo-Lantzville will be lost to the B.C. NDP and won by the B.C. Conservatives, as will likely be the case in the Ladysmith-Oceanside riding, with the probability that popular NDP Cabinet Minister Grace Lore will lose her Victoria-Beacon Hill seat to either the Green Party’s Sonia Furstenau, or B.C. Conservative candidate Tim Thielmann;
- Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley. The NDP’s Mike Starchuk will lose his Surrey-Cloverdale seat to B.C. Conservative candidate Elenore Sturko. One or both of the Langley seats will be lost by the NDP, although there’s a fighting chance Megan Dykeman will hold on to her Langley-Walnut Grove seat. Abbotsford-Mission is a goner for the NDP, as are both of the Chilliwack seats currently held by the B.C. NDP;
- Metro Vancouver, north of the Inlet / Fraser River. Susie Chant will lose her North Vancouver-Seymour seat, as will Janet Routledge, in Burnaby North. One of two, or perhaps both Maple Ridge NDP seats will be counted as a loss(es) on election night.
That’s a total of 11 seats the B.C. NDP are all but guaranteed to lose, which would reduce their seat count to 44, or three below a majority.
If the B.C. NDP lose two more Surrey seats — as is expected — and lose both Langley and both Maple Ridge seats — and lose Victoria-Beacon Hill — that would add five to the total of lost seats, leaving the B.C. NDP with 39 seats.
Keep an eye on the ridings above on Election Night.
If the B.C. NDP are falling behind in these ridings, and on track to lose them to the B.C. Conservatives, you’ll see Global BC / CTV / CBC call the election for the B.C. Conservatives early in the evening.
The good news is that the B.C. NDP are set to pick up three ridings: Cowichan, Vancouver-Langara and Kootenay-Rockies.
Surprisingly — and we feel disappointingly — in David Eby’s home riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, Mr. Eby is running neck and neck with the controversial B.C. Conservative Party candidate, Paul Ratchford.
As we live in the Vancouver-Point Grey riding, we have heard from a large number of residents in the riding that they will be parking their vote with the Green Party candidate, Devanyi Singh, rather than vote for David Eby.
David Eby could very well lose his own seat on Election Night.
The up side for the B.C. New Democratic Party campaign — and, yes, there is heartening news to be had — is that the party has recovered its support among women voters, and are currently polling 17 points ahead of the B.C. Conservatives with women voters. So, yes indeed, there is still some hope yet for a B.C. NDP win.
Also, in the good news department: the latest polling shows that the B.C. NDP have recovered their support among the electorate age 55+, with even stronger support among those 65 years of age and up. Given that this portion of the population gets out to vote, if the B.C. New Democrats — who have a superb ground game and excel at getting their vote out — can ensure their more mature voters get to either the Advance Polls, or to the polling station on Election Day, that would bode well.
And, finally, in the good news department: the B.C. New Democrats have recovered their support with voters age 18 to 34. Seems that young folks are once again enthusiastic about the B.C. NDP campaign, most probably in response to the failings of the “yep, they’re a grotty bunch of aged, mostly white, mostly male, sexist, misogynist, homo-and-transphobic, and climate change denying ne-er-do-well” B.C. Conservatives, as we’ve seen day-in and day out as reported in various news outlets, on our social media feeds, on Tik Tok, and in small, informal gatherings of friends, “I mean, you’re not voting Conservative, are you?”
Nope, younger voters will not be placing an X next to the name of the B.C. Conservative candidate on the ballot they’ll receive at their local polling station.
All of the above is by way of saying, “it ain’t over til it’s over.”
The election of a John Rustad-led B.C. Conservative Party government would bring chaos, hurt and dysfunction, a maintaining of the status quo — for instance, all of the NDP’s housing projects would grind to a halt, as single family dwellings are maintained as the housing form of choice, with nothing getting done, no new schools built or seismically upgraded —and even more egregiously, the SOGI 123 programme that protects LBGTQ+ and gender variant children will be lost, along with 4,000 books from school libraries, identified by far-right-wing “parental rights” forces — transit will not be properly funded … well, the list goes on and on.
Just because the electoral circumstance is looking dire, doesn’t mean that VanRamblings has any intention of rolling over, or that we’re giving up.
Instead, as we promised on our Facebook timeline yesterday, on VanRamblings today you will find a link to the B.C. United “oppo doc” — see below, and click on the highlighted link — the now defunct, and once powerful, political party compiled on the unfit for office candidates running under the B.C. Conservative banner.
#BCPOLI | OPPO RESEARCH DOC | B.C. United on BC Conservative candidates
Should you click on the link above, you will find concerning information on …
- Dallas Brodie (Vancouver Quilchena)
- Chris Sankey (North Coast-Haida Gwaii)
- Bryan Breguet (Vancouver-Langara)
- Paul Ratchford (Vancouver-Point Grey)
- Harman Banghu (Langley-Abbotsford)
- Jordan Kealy (Peace River North)
- Larry Neufeld (Peace River South)
- Tim Thielmann (Victoria-Beacon Hill)
- Honveer Singh Randhawa (Surrey-Guildford)
- Korky Neufeld (Abbotsford West)
- Rosalyn Bird (Prince George-Valemount)
- Tony Luck (Fraser Nicola)
- John Koury (Cowichan Valley).
Well, the list goes on and on of B.C. Conservative Party malefactors.
You’ll want to read the oppo doc for yourself.
It’s an eye-opening document providing disturbing insight into the people who could soon be running our province.
