Today, VanRamblings returns to the serious business of covering #Elxn44, after going on a bit of a lark in the column we published yesterday.
Twelve days into our current 36-day election, it’s still anyone’s guess as to how things will turn out come E-Day — Monday, September 20th.
That said, trends have emerged …
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Support for the Conservative Party has risen sharply, to 34.7% — a consequence of the party’s traditional base deserting both Jay Hill’s Maverick Party and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada, and coming home to support the Conservative Party of Canada;
- Since The Writ was dropped on Sunday, August 15th, support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party has dropped — same thing happened in 2019. The Liberals tend to be slow out of the gate (Justin Trudeau is not a natural campaigner, nor a particularly enthusiastic campaigner. Unlike, say, a Donald Trump, or even a Bill Clinton, Mr. Trudeau doesn’t require the adoration of the electorate … he knows he’s loved by his wife Sophie, his children and his family, and has the support, and more often than not, the friendship of those to whom he’s been close his entire life, or who have come into his orbit in years most recent — no, generally, it takes Mr. Trudeau two to three weeks to rev up his campaign engine and give the campaign the inspiring leadership it requires from its leader, as it dawns on him that there’s a job to be done, and without any ego in the equation, that it is he who is best equipped to provide service of an outstanding humanity and caring to the Canadian people).
Yes, twelve days into #Elxn44 support for the Liberals is down — but, even now, if one was to take Alberta out of the equation, polls would show either a dead heat, or an undeniable advantage to the Grits.
Support for Jagmeet Singh is rock steady at around 20% — the Dippers could pick up as many as a dozen seats. With all of the internal bickering and funds dedicated to run an election being poured into legal fees to oust Annamie Paul, the Green Party is simply not a factor in this election. Meanwhile, support for Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois has been in a state of flux — safe to say that they’ll lose at least 10 seats once all the votes have been counted at the end of the 2021 Canadian federal election.
Now, the reason you’ve arrived at the VanRamblings website today — a detailed provincial and regional breakdown of support for the political parties who’ve nominated candidates for office in the 2021 election.
Whether it’s pollster Quitto Maggi at Mainstreet Research — publisher of the provincial and regional polling you’ll find below, or Bruce Anderson and David Coletto at Abacus Data, Jenni Byrne at Jenni Byrne + Associates, David Herle with the Gandalf Group, Shachi Kurl at Angus Reid, Frank Graves at EKOS Research, Nik Nanos at Nanos Research, or folks at any of the other reputable polling companies churning out data on this election, on Day 12 of this Canadian election, the information you’ll find below offers an up-to-date snapshot of the support for the major political parties, and the probable seat count when the election is over. These are still early days, though — next Monday, we’ll be three weeks out from Election Day, and in all likelihood the pollsters and the rest of us will not be able to more accurately predict the outcome of #Elxn44 until after the Thursday, September 10th Leaders’ Debate, and where the polls and the support for the parties and the leaders moves in the last ten days of the election.
As VanRamblings reported on Tuesday, respected British Columbia-based political strategist Mike McDonald continues to believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are on track recapture the 6 seats they lost in 2019 …
“What with raging wildfires burning across the province, and what looks to be the nascent beginning of a fourth wave of the pandemic, climate change and COVID-19 vaccines are two issues that are likely to resonate with British Columbia voters as they head to the polls in mid-September,” suggests McDonald. “Although those are national issues, they might play out in British Columbia more so than other regions. If that comes to pass, the advantage would go to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.”
Child care is another issue much on the minds of British Columbia voters. Premier John Horgan was the first Canadian Premier to sign on to the Liberal national child care programme — should Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives sweep to victory on September 20th, you can kiss a federally funded national child care programme goodbye. Yes, the polling above suggests both a growth in support for the Tories, and a dip in support for the Grits. VanRamblings is willing to wager that once British Columbians become more acutely aware of what they’d be losing were the Conservatives to sweep to victory — a national child care programme, competent management of the pandemic, and oversight, funding and legislation that would create the safest seniors care programmes anywhere in the developed world — Liberal support will return, with more Grit seats.
If an election were to be called tomorrow in Alberta, NDP leader Rachel Notley would win in a landslide, so unpopular is Premier Jason Kenney.
Who are the most unpopular provincial leaders in Canada? Jason Kenney in Alberta, Brian Pallister in Manitoba — so unpopular that he recently resigned his office — and the incredible disappearing man (he ain’t been seen in 3 weeks), Ontario Premier Doug Ford. And why are Messrs. Kenney, Pallister and Ford so loathed by the majority of citizens in their respective provinces — easy answer that: their complete and utter bungling of the health care file during our current once in century pandemic. And what do these three gentlemen have in common? Yep, you guessed it: they’re all leaders of their respective Conservative parties, with both Mr. Kenney & Mr. Pallister having sat as Tory MPs and Mr. Ford a former federal Tory hopeful.
More successfully than any other jurisdiction across the globe, the Liberal Party of Canada has provided stewardship of COVID-19 and the economy superior to any country in the world, ordered and delivered more vaccine doses per capita than any other country, such that Canada is now the world leader in persons who have received one dose, or are fully vaccinated. What makes anyone in their right mind think that an Erin O’Toole-led Conservative government in Ottawa would perform any better than his provincial counterparts — particularly given Mr. O’Toole’s expressed support for a two-tier health care system, with first-rate, privatized health care for the wealthy, and barely up to standard health care for the rest of us.
And let us not forget, either, that Mr. O’Toole is the only national leader who has not mandated that his party’s candidates be vaccinated (Knocking at the door of a potential constituent: “Yes, I’m your local Conservative Party candidate. Have I been vaccinated? No. I think COVID is a hoax!” Why did she slam the door in my face?), and has repeatedly stated that he opposes Liberal legislation mandating that all federal and federally regulated employees be fully vaccinated, or risk losing their jobs — a federal initiative supported by more than 90% of the Canadian population.
Erin O’Toole & his band of troglodyte Tories protect us from the ravages of the killer fourth wave of the pandemic? Not on your life. No wonder seniors are deserting the Tories in droves, as are any other thinking persons concerned with the common good. Vote Tory? Shyeaah, and sign the death warrants of thousands more Canadians across the breadth of our land.
The Liberals look to reclaim their only Saskatchewan seat — held by former Liberal Cabinet Minister, Ralph Goodale, from 1993 through the 2019 election — while NDP fortunes are also looking up. Premier Scott Moe did Erin O’Toole’s cause no favour, after stating that his government will be privatizing parts of Saskatchewan’s health care system, an initiative fully supported by Mr. O’Toole (although just two days ago he said he was opposed to two-tier health care), and roundly opposed by Mr. Trudeau, who said if re-elected he would move to withdraw health care funding from the province should Mr. Moe move forward on a two-tier health care system.
Yes, at Erin O’Toole’s explicit request (and that of his political staff), Ontario Premier Doug Ford has gone into hiding, so as to not “interfere” with the federal election. Mr. Ford’s presence would do Mr. O’Toole’s cause no good.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals began this election with the unbridled support of Ontarians, Liberal insider polling having the Liberals at 45% support, and Mr. O’Toole at a measly 27%. So, what happened?
Seems that the electorate in Ontario can’t put two and two together: Mr. O’Toole is a Conservative, and the despised Doug Ford is a Conservative. Does the voting population of Ontario honestly believe that an Erin O’Toole-led Conservative government in Ottawa would do any better job on the pandemic file than Mr. Ford has (mis)managed in Ontario? According to Abacus data, support for Mr. O’Toole remains at 26% (+5 since the onset of the election), while his negatives remain at 41%, for a net score of -15.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 42% of Ontarians, with negative impressions at 24%, for a net score of +18 — which, if you look at the projected Ontario NDP seat count looks promising for the federal New Democrats, with an increased presence in Ottawa. Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 39% and negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -3. The rub? At the time of the 2019 election, 69% of Ontarians wanted change, including 52% who felt strongly about it. Today, 71% of the Ontario voting public want change, including 44% who feel strongly about it. The desire for change seems to be driving the waning support for the Liberals — which is why this week, the federal Liberal party has begun a negative campaign targeting Doug Ford (which proved a very successful strategy in 2019), and will carry on with a well-devised multi-media campaign they believe will cost Erin O’Toole support among Ontarians, particularly those living in the vote rich 905. Politics: it ain’t for wimps. Look for Justin Trudeau’s approvals to climb over the next 24 days.
Premier François Legault and the people of Québec are saving Justin Trudeau’s vegan bacon in the 2021 election — Mr. Legault has not only become Mr. Trudeau’s new best friend, but has sought to help the Liberal cause in the province by not missing an opportunity to deride Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, as may be witnessed in the Bloc’s plummeting support. Mr. Trudeau: hometown boy made good — not to mention that he’ll be handing over $6 billion scot-free, no questions asked.
Polling has been all over the map for Justin Trudeau since the election began. Polls at election outset had the Liberals sweeping the Maritimes, just as they did in a rout in 2015. On Monday of this week, the polls showed Mr. O’Toole set to win 11 seats, seven of them at the expense of the Liberals. Then, one supposes, the people of the Maritimes remembered when then Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper came to Nova Scotia, and called the people of the Maritimes “ne’er-do-wells and lazy bums.”
“There’s a dependence on the dole in the Maritimes, and hand-outs from the federal and provincial governments that breeds a culture of defeatism across the region,” Mr. Harper boldly stated during what turned out to be a truncated Maritime visit for the Prime Minister back in 2014, making so, so many friends among Maritimers in the process. Which lead, of course, to the Tories being wiped out politically in the Maritimes in the 2015 federal election. Little wonder newly-elected Progressive Conservative leader in Nova Scotia, Tim Houston, did everything in his power to distance himself from Erin O’Toole and the federal Conservatives during the recent provincial election. Memories: they die hard in the Maritimes.
Just like the people of Québec, the good-hearted folks who live in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Newfoundland are coming to the rescue of wrong-headed folks living in British Columbia, Alberta and the Prairie provinces and Ontario 12 days into the current election, folks who haven’t yet gotten their heads on straight, and realized what a disaster it would be for all Canadians to elect a mean-spirited, corporatist party of Trumpian right-wingers, who could give a good goddamn about any of us.
Come Election Day, it’s the seat count that matters — not party percentage popularity.
As the fourth wave of the pandemic grows, look for this election to become the election Mr. Trudeau wanted from the outset: a referendum on how the Liberal party has handled the pandemic over the past 17 months, keeping the public safe and the economy humming, versus the uncertainty of what electing an Erin O’Toole-led Conservative party government would mean for families across Canada, for our seniors population — and for all Canadians.
Look for the Liberal party, the New Democrats and the Bloc to hammer Mr. O’Toole into the ground on the issue of his lack of fitness and that of a Tory administration to govern — in the midst of a once-in-a-century pandemic.
The Curse of Politics podcast for Thursday, August 26, 2021.
