Today, VanRamblings leaves you in the capable hands of …
David Herle, host of the Curse of Politics podcast, longtime Liberal strategist and pollster, frequent CBC News commentator, principal in the Gandalf Research Group, and in 2013 Ontario Liberal Party campaign manager in that year’s election, which afforded Kathleen Wynne a come-from-behind victory, electing her as Premier;
Scott Reid, Director of Communications for former Prime Minister Paul Martin, and current CTVNews’ political commentator — both Mr. Herle and Mr. Reid proudly successful 40-year veterans of federal (and provincial) Liberal politics;
Kory Teneycke, former Director of Communications in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s office, and 2018 campaign manager for Doug Ford’s Ontario Progressive Conservative Party during that year’s election, which elected Mr. Ford Premier; and
Jordan Leichnitz, an NDP stalwart, longtime progressive political strategist who worked for over a decade in the offices of former federal NDP leader, Jack Layton, and current NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, and CBC Power & Politics commentator.
The four Curse of Politics panelists discuss the state and nature of federal politics in Canada, providing delightfully profane insight into what the heck is going in Canadian federal politics, the issues of the week, and more, much much more.
The Curse of Politics is also available as an Apple, Android and Spotify podcast.
The final Nanos / Globe and Mail poll in #Elxn44. Now we simply await the outcome of the election.
Well, here we are, Election Day — Monday, September 20th. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess as to the outcome, but a Liberal minority seems probable.
In the final VanRamblings #Elxn44 written prior to E-Day — we’ll be weighing in again tomorrow, Tuesday, September 21st, once the results of today’s federal election have been tabulated — we tried to do our very best to make sense of where Canadians stood heading to the polls to choose the next government of Canada.
Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party of Canada
A few days ago, VanRamblings believed that Erin O’Toole had an even odds chance of forming a majority — or, at the very least, a significant minority government — once (almost) all the votes have been counted late on the evening of Monday, September 20th. With the rise of the People’s Party of Canada, and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s decision last week to bring in a vaccine passport, we no longer believe that prospects for the Tories forming government to be all that rosy.
As may be seen in the Nanos poll above, the Liberal Party and Conservative Party remain in a neck-and-neck battle to determine who will form the next government of Canada. By August 29th, two weeks after Prime Minister Trudeau had called the election the Tories’ focused, policy-driven campaign had Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives at 37% in the polls, while the Liberals’ lacklustre, enervating campaign had their prospects in the doldrums, garnering the support of only 27.7% of the Canadian electorate. And then, the following series of events unfolded …
1. Liberal ads began to appear on the nightly news, raising concerns about a Tory platform that would “take Canada backward“;
2. Erin O’Toole began to flip flop on many of the core issues contained in the Tory handbook: gun control (“We’ll keep the current ban in place, but will review it in the first year.”); climate change (“We’re committed to carbon pricing, just not the Liberal carbon pricing plan.”); abortion (“I believe in a woman’s right to choose. Whether or not, we choose to place limits on abortion will be left to the members of my government.”); transit (“My government would be prepared to move forward on funding transit. Yes, I recognize that this represents a departure from what you see in the Tory handbook, but …”); a projected deficit that exceeds the Liberal party proposal (“We’ll work to eliminate the deficit in the next 10 years. For now, though, there is spending required to get us out of the pandemic.”); the pandemic (“The Conservative Party under my leadership will support vaccine passports, and will work with the provinces to implement this necessary restriction on Canadians’ access rights, as a meaningful way to wrestle COVID-19 to the ground.”);
Liberals: “Erin O’Toole pretended to change his plan to legalize assault weapons in a continued pattern of saying anything to anyone to get elected. Just like he did during his leadership, he is still using coded language & semantics to tell the gun lobby that he’s on their side”
3. Québec. Never before in Canadian political history has a question asked by the moderator of a Leaders’ Debate so changed the complexion, and possible outcome, of a federal election.
As valid as Shachi Kurl’s questioning was of Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet on the inherent discriminatory aspects of Québec’s Bill 21 — banning Québec citizens from wearing religious symbols, and mandating that one’s face be uncovered to give or receive specific public services — the contentious nature of her question had two immediate effects: a) Coalition Avenir Québec Premier François Legault came out the next morning, urging Québec voters to cast their ballot for the Conservative Party, and their leader Erin O’Toole — who would not interfere in provincial jurisdiction, he said, stating that an O’Toole government would not take Bill 21 to court; and, b) support for the Bloc Québécois shot through the roof, while cutting in half support for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party;
Look, we're all happy to watch the PPC steal votes from the Conservatives but I'm seriously worried about the long term trends for conservativism (and vis-a-vis politics generally) in Canada. #cdnpoli#elxn44
4. The People’s Party of Canada. At the outset of the election, the far right-of-centre, anti-vaxxer, Trump-like People’s Party stood at 2.8% in the polls. As Erin O’Toole began to flip flop on the issues, though, the libertarian “fringe element” in the Conservative Party left in droves to join either Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party, or Jay Hill’s northern B.C. and prairie-based and separatist Maverick Party, causing support for those parties to spike dramatically. Some Ontario/Alberta polls have the People’s Party polling as high as 11%.
In the waning days of #Elxn44, Tory campaign officials made contact with disaffected members of the Conservative Party who’ve now joined the People’s Party or the Maverick Party, to bring them back into the fold, by re-assuring them that …
“Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party is your Conservative Party. We all believe in the same things: we all want our civil rights, and don’t want to see them abridged by mask mandates or vaccine cards, or anything of the sort. Let me assure you that we’ll move forward on reversing Justin Trudeau’s gun control legislation. Just like in the U.S., we’ll introduce legislation limiting a woman’s right to a child-killing abortion. And we’ve got no intention of acting on a job-killing climate action plan. We’re this close to achieving what you want to see from your federal government — but every vote for the People’s or the Maverick party is a vote that will ensure that a Justin Trudeau government will be returned to Ottawa next Monday. Don’t let that happen! C’mon back to the Conservative Party. We need you!”
If the Conservative Party outreach to disaffected Tory members proves even partially successful, Erin O’Toole could win a minority government this evening. If enough members of the People’s or the Maverick party cast a ballot not for either of these fringe, right-of-centre parties, Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives might even win a majority — possibly a massive majority — government tonight, although with each passing hour that potential outcome seems increasingly unlikely.
Alberta is screaming at the rest of Canada not to elect the @CPC_HQ
With anti-vaxx protesters dogging Justin Trudeau’s every campaign stop throughout his campaign for office, hurling gravel at the Prime Minister and shouting misogynist comments about his wife Sophie, in the final week of the campaign, Mr. Trudeau has found a vigorous new energy, his campaign now in a more spirited & dynamic gear, taking the fight for “a better Canada” to Canadians across our land.
As occurred in both the 2015 and 2019 federal election campaigns, as Election Day draws nearer, and the prospect of a right-of-centre “backward” Conservative Party once again assuming the reins of power in Ottawa looms, support for the Liberal Party has burgeoned, mostly — almost exclusively — at the expense of the long woebegotten democratic socialist party of Canada, our beloved New Democrats.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh did his cause no favours by failing to answer any of the questions placed to him on Tuesday evening by chief CBC political correspondent, Rosemary Barton, who pretty much savaged the under prepared and decidedly underwhelming (at least on Tuesday evening) leader of Canada’s fourth party.
Progressive’s concern: Erin O’Toole praises Alberta’s UCP leader Jason Kenney on COVID-19 response. Late news: O’Toole had asked Mr. Kenney to delay til next Tuesday his vaccine passport announcement.
Not to pile on when a province is in such a crisis, but given how badly @jkenney has handled the pandemic, ignored advice, ignored alarms bells from doctors and nurses and cost lives (24 deaths in last 24 hours) can he survive politically?
In the past two weeks, support for the NDP has dropped from a campaign high of 28.4% to its current 17.5% E-Day Nanos poll standing. For most progressive voters, a national child care programme; maintenance of the Canada Child Benefit — which has not only served the interests of young families, but also reduced the child poverty rate in Canada by 40%; and a continued ban on the murderous assault weapons that have killed and maimed so many of our fellow citizens matters.
Implementation of a global best climate action plan, continuing the ban on tanker traffic along British Columbia’s pristine coast; support for the diversity that is Canada in 2021 (which will include a ban on conversion therapy, and an anti-racism strategy that will support and ensure the safety of all persons of colour), while bringing Afghan refugees and Yazidi women exploited and imprisoned by ISIS to Canada — and a hundred other programmes championed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government will cause many progressive voters to cast their ballot strategically this upcoming Monday, voting for the Liberal or New Democratic Party candidate best positioned to defeat the Conservative Party candidate.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government mounted a massive response to the pandemic, quarterbacking an unprecedented campaign against the threat of a virus that had shaken the economy, legislating necessary programmes to keep Canadians safe and economically whole, while procuring 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, and funding three new biomanufacturing facilities to manufacture up to four million doses per month at home, to ensure Canada’s ability to produce sufficient vaccine doses to meet our country’s need.
Justin Trudeau bringing his friend Dominic LeBlanc back into Cabinet following his cancer battle.
Last Tuesday, Justin Trudeau’s longtime friend and recent Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc told the Toronto Star’s Tonda McCharles that he thought the Liberals might win a majority government this upcoming Monday. VanRamblings believes Mr. LeBlanc is dreaming in technicolour — although some pundits believe a majority Liberal government is possible, just not probable.
Unless the New Democratic Party vote completely collapses — which seems unlikely, with current electoral prospects suggesting the NDP will, perhaps, better their 2019 election outing, when they achieved a near record low of 15.98% voter approval, and 24 seats in Parliament — the Liberals will likely win a stand pat minority around the 157-seat mark, or should the New Democratic Party really suffer in the voting booth, a minimally increased minority government. A majority federal Liberal government is not in the cards, or so it would seem.Democracy. Late on Monday evening we’ll know the will of the Canadian people.
The final #Elxn44 Curse of Politics podcast, E-Day, Monday, September 20, 2021 | A Liberal minority.
The Curse of Politics podcast, Saturday, September 18, 2021 | The campaign is over — that’s all she wrote.
The Curse of Politics podcast, Friday, September 17, 2021 David Herle states in Friday’s Curse of Politics podcast that on voting day, the NDP vote will collapse.
The Curse of Politics podcast, Thursday, September 16, 2021
St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Liberal MP, Seamus O’Regan. A necessary listen, and must watch.
On March 9, 2020 the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced legislation that would impose a blanket ban on causing a child to undergo therapy aimed at altering their sexual orientation or gender identity.
The bill would also make it a criminal offence to cause an adult to undergo so-called conversion therapy against their will. It would not prevent a consenting adult from voluntarily undergoing the therapy.
“Conversion therapy is premised on a lie, that being homosexual, lesbian, bisexual or trans is wrong and in need of fixing,” Justice Minister of Canada David Lametti told Members of Parliament moments after tabling the bill in the House of Commons.
“Not only is that false, it sends a demeaning and a degrading message that undermines the dignity of individuals and the LGBTQ2 community as a whole.”
Bill C-6 proposed five new Criminal Code offences.
In addition to the ban on conversion therapy for minors, the legislation sought to outlaw removing a minor from Canada for the purpose of obtaining conversion therapy abroad. Both those offences would be punishable by up to five years in prison, as would forcing an adult to undergo conversion therapy against their will.
The bill would make it an offence to profit from providing conversion therapy or to advertise such — both punishable by up to two years in prison. The new offences would not apply to parents, friends, teachers, doctors, mental health professionals, school or pastoral counsellors and faith leaders who provide support to individuals questioning their sexual orientation or gender identity.
“There is a difference between asking someone who they are and telling someone that who they are is wrong and in need of fixing,” Justice Minister Lametti told members of the House of Commons, adding that those who engage in ‘open-ended’, supportive discussions with an individual exploring their sexual orientation or gender identity have nothing to fear.”
Conservative Party Members of Parliament Push Back on Bill C-6
In addition to Tamara Jansen, Fraser Valley MP’s Ed Fast and Brad Vis were among the 62 Conservative Party members who voted against Bill C-6, which outlaws the practice of conversion therapy. Vis told The Abbotsford News that he was not concerned about the optics of only Conservatives voting against the bill and that he believed in the party’s right to allow MPs to vote according to their own judgment.
“I have a responsibility to my constituents to make decisions and the Conservative Party was the only party that wasn’t whipped on the vote. I’m more so concerned that charter rights are protected.”
Peace River-Westlock MP Arnold Viersen also voted against the bill, as did fellow Conservative MPs: Prince George- Peace River- Northern Rockies MP Bob Zimmer; Manitoba MP Ted Falk; Albertan MPs Tom Kmiec, Damien Kurek, Jeremy Patzer, and David Yurdiga, Conservative MP for Fort McMurray-Cold Lake.
Two Richmond, British Columbia Conservative members of Parliament voted against the bill to restrict conversion therapy, MPs Alice Wong and Kenny Chiu.
Former Tory leader Andrew Scheer was not present for the vote, and neither was Grande Prairie-Mackenzie MP Chris Warkentin. Independent and former Conservative MP leadership hopeful Derek Sloan also voted to defeat Bill C-6.
On Twitter, Canadian singer songwriter k.d. Lang responded, “How terribly sad for them. Ignorance is not an easy thing to live with.”
The vote on the third reading of Bill C-6 in Parliament passed 263-63 in favour.
Meanwhile, social media giant TikTok announced in a statement following passage of the bill — despite the virulent, intolerant and often hateful commentary from a majority of Conservative Party MPs — that the service would be removing all content that harms the LGBTQ+ community, including conversion therapy videos.
Following passage of the bill banning conversion therapy in Canada, the bill languished in the Senate, where Conservative Party members of the chamber repeatedly threw roadblocks in the way of a timely passage of Bill C-6 — in order that it might become law — instead, Bill C-6 died on the Order paper, expunged from history. Erin O’Toole has said his government would not re-introduce Bill C-6, or move to outlaw conversion therapy in Canada, stating, “If the provinces or municipalities wish to introduce similar legislation to that which was passed in the spring, my government would not oppose such an initiative. As you know, I voted in favour of Bill C-6 — a majority of my Conservative caucus colleagues did not accept Bill C-6.”
For 9 long years, Canadian politics underwent a tectonic shift that for the longest period of time since Confederation seemingly buried the liberal elites of yesteryear, during the era of Stephen Harper’s reign as Canada’s Prime Minister.
The thesis propounded by conservative Globe and Mail columnist, John Ibbitson, and pollster Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs Research, is that Canada is undergoing a fundamental shift (the eponymous “Big Shift”) that in the 21st century will result in a reformation of Canadian politics, governance, economy and values. The authors argue in their book that the Conservative Party of Canada is the political force best poised to take advantage of this changing landscape, and over the years and in the coming decades will be transformed into what was once the purview of the Liberal Party: the natural governing party of Canada.
Bricker and Ibbitson argue that one of the world’s most consensual countries is becoming polarized, exhibiting stark differences between East and West, cities and suburbs, Canadian born citizens and immigrants. The “winners” — in both politics and business — will be those who can capitalize on these momentous changes.
For almost its entire history, Canada has been run by the political, media and business elites of Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal. For nine long, arduous years, though, these groups lost their power — without most of them realizing their power was on the wane. The Laurentian Consensus, the term John Ibbitson has coined for the dusty liberal elite, had been replaced by a new and powerful coalition based in the West and supported by immigrant voters in Ontario. How did this happen?
So far in the 21st century, though, the Conservatives have governed for only 9 of 21 years. Despite their dispiriting election losses in the 2015 and 2019 federal elections, the Conservative Party has nonetheless continued to remain strong in northern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, in the rural regions of Ontario, and has even shown strength in Québec — but not in the Maritimes.
In his review in The Globe and Mail of John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker’s book, The Big Shift, journalist and academic Christopher Dornan writes …
“The Big Shift, as its title suggests, is one of those books that purports to divine a single, telling fact to explain Canada. If that fact echoes Jacques Parizeau’s infamous 1995 comment about “money and the ethnic vote,” it is not, as Bricker and Ibbitson advance it, a form of bigotry, but a species of determinism: The political values, and therefore voting tendencies, of new arrivals and first-generation Canadians are contingent on their race and region of origin.
Further, this “Big Shift in power to the West and to suburban immigrants” is not only permanent but “will make Canada inexorably a more conservative place.” Resistance is futile. Bad news for progressives, whether they manage to unite or not. They’re on the wrong side of a fundamental and irreversible demographic shift.”
While both of the book’s authors take great pains to stress that they’ve merely set out to document a “seismic shift” in the demographics of Canada, and what it portends for the political, social and economic future of our nation, for most who would read the book and interpret its internal thesis, from the book’s outset through til its end, it would be difficult to ignore the sense of triumphalism evident throughout Ibbitson and Bricker’s polemical treatise, as if somehow the shift to the “new” — and increasingly right wing — Conservative Party is inalterably inevitable.
“It’s one thing for the Conservative Party to chafe and protest when in opposition,” writes Dornan. “But, if Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s style of government — which might best be described as “undertaken in a spirit of spite” — offers an example of what Canadians might expect from a Conservative government, it is entirely likely that a goodly number of our fellow citizens would find this approach to governance to be untenable, particularly in a country populated by families who came here to escape entrenched antagonisms. If that ever changes, then the Canada we all love — left and right, newcomer or born-and-bred — will be truly at risk.”
When Canadians go to the advance polls to cast a ballot this week, or to their polling station on Election Day, Monday, September 20th, Canadians must vote not just for the Prime Minister and the government of their choice, but for the future of Canada — our most cherished home — and the uniquely Canadian values of fairness, respect, compassion, equality, inclusion, diversity, safety, peace, and for being there for one another, as collectively we seek to create a more sustainably just Canada for everyone. As in every election, there is in 2021 a great deal on the line.
