#BC Poli | #BCElection2020 | An Historic Political Re-Alignment

October 29, 2020BC Politics, PoliticsRaymond Tomlin

In today’s wrap-up coverage of Decision 2020, in the main, we’re going to turn the column over to the reflections of others who’ve weighed in on the recently-completed, but not yet over, British Columbia provincial election.
That said, before we move to the observations of others, VanRamblings would like to weigh-in on what we consider to be the historic re-alignment of politics in British Columbia, and what that means for us going forward.

John Horgan assumes the leadership of the B.C. NDP on Thursday, May 1st, 2014

Since being acclaimed the leader of the B.C. NDP on May 1st 2014 — replacing Adrian Dix, who had failed miserably in the 2013 provincial election — John Horgan has taken the British Columbia New Democratic Party to the centre of the political spectrum, assuming the ground occupied by the B.C. Liberals as a resource extraction, pro-LNG, Site C dam loving, moving at a snail’s pace on promised social programmes like $10-a-day child care, and as a balanced budget loving provincial political party.
In other words, the B.C. NDP have become what the B.C. Liberals should have become following the defeat of the Christy Clark government in 2017 — as Wilkinson moved the party to the right, as a coalition of right-of-centre federal Liberals, and far right-of-centre Stephen Harper Conservatives, all the while failing to take the pulse of British Columbians, who in 2020 are no longer enamoured of the anti-union, corporate-backed politics British Columbians largely supported over the past 70 years, from the era of Wacky Bennett, to “Son of Bennett,” former Mayor and Premier Gordon Campbell — who on election tore up dozens of negotiated collective agreements — and vapid talk show host made good, Christy Clark.
With the BC NDP now occupying the centre of the political spectrum, and the B.C. Liberal Party set to transform into a Brad Wall-Scott Moe Sask-Party-style right-of-centre B.C. Party, as we wrote yesterday, the left side of the political spectrum in British Columbia has been ceded to Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen’s re-imagined eco-socialist B.C. Green Party.
VanRamblings is predicting that Premier John Horgan will step down in late 2023, with the leadership of the B.C. NDP going to his preferred successor, David Eby, or to the charismatic member for the Stikine riding, Nathan Cullen. With either leader, the B.C. New Democratic Party will be returned to government in 2024, for a third term of office in the province’s capital.
All governments have a shelf life, though — and that will be the case with the B.C. NDP when the 2028 provincial election is called.
By that time, B.C. Green leader Sonia Furstenau will have had ample time to define her party in the eyes of British Columbians.
Upon completion of the 2024 provincial election, VanRamblings predicts that the B.C. Greens will have picked up another half dozen seats in the Legislature, and in 2028 will have added more, for a total seat count that includes all of the following ridings: Victoria-Beacon Hill, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich and the North Islands, Saanich-South, Esquimalt-Metchosin, Parksville-Qualicum, Nanaimo, Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Cowichan, Courtenay-Comox, North Island, Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Vancouver-False Creek, West Vancouver – Sea to Sky, New Westminster, Nelson-Creston, and Kootenay West, with the B.C. Greens holding the balance of power in a coalition-style British Columbia minority NDP government.
In the eventuality outlined directly above, by 2028, now a well-seasoned politico, B.C. Green leader Sonia Furstenau will hold the whip hand, in support of minority NDP government — given there’s no way a B.C. Green Party could support a right-of-centre B.C. Party, although she could hold the potential for that possibility over the heads of the B.C. New Democrats.

Now onto the observations of others, including the political strategists who comprise the endearing and engagingly foul-mouthed, beloved by many (including me), and well-experienced political difference makers — the rumpled David Herle, the good looking Scott Reid, and the swears-like-a-drunken sailor, Jenni Byrne — who over the course of the past 40 years have helped shape Canadian politics, mostly at the federal level, but often enough, too, at the provincial level: the wily, riotously humourous, utterly non-rancorous, incredibly bright, truth-telling, and — believe it or not — non-partisan panel who comprise The Herle Burly podcast, a must-listen for anybody who has a life, cares even a whit about the state of our nation, and gives a good galldarn about how the sausage is made, and how decisions are arrived at in government that determine how our lives are lived in this country we call Canada — surely, that must be you.
David Herle, Scott Reid & Jenni Byrne on British Columbia’s Decision 2020 provincial election — guaranteed to be the best thing you’ll hear all day.

Let’s excerpt a number of comments made by political pundits published on The Tyee post-election, in a story titled, So, What Does BC’s Election Outcome Really Mean? Here a few of the more provocative insights …

UBC Political Science prof, Max Cameron

Several conditions contributed to the success of John Horgan’s NDP. First, the world is going through a social democratic moment. Social democracies in other places have managed the COVID-19 pandemic effectively, in part because they have invested in universal health care and economic security …

Second, the NDP government has shown that it pays to listen to science and make policies informed by evidence. Elected officials — notably Adrian Dix — worked closely with public health officers — especially Dr. Bonnie Henry — to win the trust of the public and mobilize support for public health directives …

Third, the NDP benefited from a minority Parliament. Minority situations encourage governments to be cautious, responsive and to hew closely to public opinion. Working within a historic Confidence and Supply Agreement with the BC Greens, the NDP ran a government that made few errors and suffered few scandals.

Finally, new campaign finance rules introduced by the NDP eliminated corporate and union donations and capped contributions from individuals. This levelled the playing field.

Karen Ward: With your majority, NDP, ‘choose to be brave.’

British Columbians rejected the vicious politics of Wilkinson’s Liberals. They don’t like it when you use people in trouble as a weapon to punish them further. I hope the message to the NDP is clear: Be brave.

Alex Shiff, former BC Liberal spokesperson

While the BC Liberals needed to win back suburban Metro Vancouver swing ridings that they lost in 2017, the BC NDP was able to defend those ridings while pushing deeper into the Fraser Valley. The BC NDP was able to scoop up voters who decided that John Horgan’s first term as premier was not the radical activist administration that some had predicted, and a change in government in the middle of a pandemic was ultimately not what the doctor ordered.

The results represent an inflection point for the BC Liberals. The party needs to find a way to regain their appeal to suburban and urban ridings in Metro Vancouver, who, along with the party’s dominance in rural communities, were key to a pathway to the premier’s office.

Mario Canseco, Research Co, B.C. polling firm

The BC Liberals have a monumental dual task ahead: a need to reconnect with federal Liberal Party voters who did not feel uncomfortable voting for the BC NDP in this election, and ensuring that voters do not see the BC Conservatives as a more palatable option in 2024 or during any byelections that happen before then.

It was going to be a daunting task for any opposition party to erase the emotional edge that the handling of COVID-19 had bestowed upon the BC NDP. This is the first provincial election in this century where the incumbent premier had an approval rating higher than 60 per cent heading into election day. The BC Liberals certainly faced difficulties adapting to a campaign that minimized their natural strengths: the ability to fill rooms of supporters who wanted to hear the leader speak and an effective get-out-the-vote operation when more than half a million voters requested packages to vote by mail.

George Abbott, former BC Liberal MLA and Cabinet Minister

The Liberal campaign struck me as largely tone deaf around the issue that dominates public concern: the pandemic. If a BC Liberal government was prepared to offer up $10 - 11 billion in stimulus spending (a short-term elimination/reduction of provincial sales tax), a more imaginative platform might have embraced, for example, a billion dollar program for climate-proofing communities from wildfire and flood. The best stimulus programs deliver a “triple word score:” create or protect jobs, generate spin-off economic activity and enhance community safety and services.

As we bring VanRamblings’ post-mortem coverage of Decision 2020 to a close, we’ll leave you with this thought, that will likely gladden the heart of Sharon Gregson, as well as the working moms who’ve had to remain at home during the pandemic to care for their children: the biggest mistake made by the NDP in this election was in not identifying child care as both an economic and a feminist issue, and promising dramatically increased funding and near immediate movement towards $10-a-day and greatly expanded child care, allowing mothers to return to work while building the economy — which is a critical concern going forward — while showing a greater degree of caring and compassion for the children of the province.
While John Horgan promised free transit for children 5 – 12 years of age, that initiative failed to meet the needs of working families with teenage children who, as is the case in Surrey, must walk 5.8 kilometres, as the crow flies, to their school before becoming eligible for busing. At the very least, the John Horgan government could have promised to halve the fare for children aged 12 – 18 — a necessary initiative they failed to implement.

C’mon back Monday & Tuesday for VanRamblings’ take on the November 3rd U.S. Presidential election, where Democrats hope to win the Presidency, and both houses of Congress — and return sanity to all of our lives.

In the meantime, tomorrow you can look forward to our regular Arts Friday coverage, on Saturday a new Stories of a Life, and then … Music Sunday.

#BC Poli | Sonia Furstenau & the Future of BC’s Green Party | Pt 3

October 28, 2020BC Politics, PoliticsRaymond Tomlin

Growing up on Vancouver’s eastside, as a child living in poverty, with a tough-as-nails mother who was the family’s main breadwinner — even if she was earning only 35¢ an hour — resident in a neighbourhood in the post-World War II period, when immigrants — who we called DP’s, which unkindly stood for Deported Persons, what the uneducated, lower and working class folks in the neighbourhood used as a pejorative to describe “outsiders” — for me attending school at Lord Nelson, and later Templeton Secondary, my classmates were mainly rough-and-tumble members of the Chinese community — because, let’s face it, Grandview Woodland is not too much east of Vancouver’s Chinatown — Indo-Canadian, Filipino, black, Asian and other persons of colour, as well as recent Italian emigrés, meant that this polygot assortment of multiple cultures and ethnicities were my friends, my best friends, with whom I played rugby and brutal football games in the rain during our three-times a week “Games” block, means that for most of my life, as we discovered during the recent mid-election debate of political party leaders that, as is the case with Premier John Horgan, VanRamblings “didn’t see colour” — we just took it for granted that this is the world we lived in, and didn’t see or acknowledge any differences.

BC NDP leader John Horgan apologizes for answer to question about white privilege

Now, this is 2020, and saying that you don’t see colour is verboten, is tantamount to saying that you have had no reason to reflect on the lived experience of minority members of the community you have been elected to serve, that as non-racist as you may be, you are not anti-racist.

In the 21st century we are witnessing necessary generational change in B.C. political leadership, that during the course of Decision 2020 was best personified by B.C. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau, who spoke with clarity and with heart. Here is how, in an uncompromising manner, Ms. Furstenau answered the question, “How have you personally reckoned with your own privilege and unconscious bias as a white political leader?”

Of the three British Columbia political leaders on the debate stage that chilly, overcast Tuesday, October 13th evening, only Sonia Furstenau answered the question authentically and well, with compassion and grit.

There’s a rationale for VanRamblings opening today’s column as we did, as our way of saying that VanRamblings understands Premier Horgan on a visceral, lived experience level, and recognizes that — as is the case with us — underneath that veneer of sophistication lies the heart of a street fighter, one of whose goals in the recently-completed election was to vanquish his foes, and destroy his enemies, who represent a threat to all that he has achieved, and the quiet, deserving enjoyment of his life.
Make no mistake, for Premier John Horgan in the year 2020, B.C. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau represented an evil force incarnate, who would seek to take from him everything he has gained in the first 61 years of his life. With down and dirty street fighter Geoff Meggs in place as John Horgan’s chief of staff, the British Columbia New Democratic Party was prepared to do whatever it took to wipe those damnable Greens off the British Columbia political stage, to consign them to the dustbin of history.
For Premier Horgan, that his campaign to eliminate Sonia Furstenau from the B.C. political stage failed, and failed miserably, caused him on election night to be something he had not been since calling an election on Monday, September 21st: generous, to Ms. Furstenau and to the Greens, in a way that he’d not shown at any time since he called his snap election, nor during the unusually becalming 32-day election period that followed.
One can understand why Sonia Furstenau, on election night, was full of anger and disapprobation for the re-elected Premier: John Horgan, who she had liked and trusted, and had worked with collaboratively and well during the three year Confidence and Supply period of coalition government, dating back to 2017 — had set about to destroy her, had visited her Cowichan riding many times — with the province’s beloved Adrian Dix, as well as federal NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, in tow — and made promises to the voters in Cowichan that were designed to wipe her off the political map.

As Ms. Furstenau states at the end of her address to the press and to the people of British Columbia, late on that chill October 24, 2020 election night, “We know you’re looking for us to put this election behind us and getting to work on the issues that matter. And we will not let you down.”

So, where to now for the gentle Ms. Furstenau, and her B.C. Green Party?
A provincial election called only one week after she’d won the contest for the B.C. Green Party leadership, caught Ms. Furstenau off guard and scrambling to put an effective election campaign in place, identify and nominate candidates across the province for her B.C. Green Party, set out a campaign itinerary, and develop an all important party platform — all of which she accomplished with steely determination, and uncommon élan.
Before we continue, a necessary bit of history on the evolution of the Green Party movement across the globe. In Europe, the Green movement arose out of the work of the far left Baader-Meinhof gang of the 1970s, who gave up violent direct action — industrial sabotage, blowing up buildings and infrastructure, and other forms of political violence — in favour of creating a Green movement that would enter government & fight against restrictions on immigration, advocating for women’s reproductive rights, supporting the legalization of marijuana, fighting for LGBTQ rights, having the state draft “anti-authoritarian” concepts of education and child-rearing, fighting against the dual threats of air pollution in the cities and the acid rain then destroying forests across Europe, fighting for civil rights, fighting against military incursions into developing states, and against state-sanctioned imperialism — well, you get the idea. The European Green movement is a progressive, far left-of-centre, multi-faceted civil rights and eco-socialist environmental movement — was in the 1980s, and remains so to this day.
The Green parties of Europe have held the balance of power, and more often than not sat in government for near 40 years, realizing substantive change as an activist movement well able to articulate the conditions necessary to create a fair and just state to serve the interests of all.
Not so in Canada. The Green movement at the federal level was founded by Jim Harris, formerly a far right member of the Conservative party, who was found to be so extremist that he was kicked out of the party, only to emerge as leader of the Green Party of Canada. In and across Canada, the Green Party has drawn candidates and support from two groups: the well-intentioned but politically naïve (with a surfeit of young, apolitical members), and those who are disenchanted with the old line parties (or parties that have an infrastructure, a broad and all encompassing raison d’être, and are committed to Canada as a diverse, inclusive nation).
For much of their life in Canada, the Green Party has lived up to and reinforced its billing as is often said about them, “Conservatives who ride bicycles.” And such was the case with former B.C. Green Party leader, Andrew Weaver, who was more than happy to join with then Premier Christy Clark in 2017 to have his Green Party form a coalition with the B.C. Liberals. Fortunate for all of us, Sonia Furstenau was having none of it, stating to Mr. Weaver that if he attempted to do so, she would cross the floor and join the NDP caucus. Adam Olsen, the then newly-elected MLA for Saanich North and the Islands told Mr. Weaver that he would sit as an Independent, should Mr. Weaver follow through on his intentions.
Thus we have the root of now former B.C. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver’s “dissatisfaction” with his re-elected Green Party colleagues,
But that was yesterday, and today is a whole new day, an opportunity for Sonia Furstenau to establish the British Columbia Green Party as a social democratic climate justice political party committed to the Green New Deal.

“To provide all people of British Columbia with high-quality health care; affordable, safe, and adequate housing; economic security; and access to clean water, clean air, healthy and affordable food, and nature.”

Which is to say, challenge the B.C. New Democratic Party on its left flank, while inspiring a new generation of voters, along with all other British Columbians who are committed to climate justice, and a fairer, more welcoming, inclusive and socially just British Columbia that meets the core needs of all of our citizens, from the bustling cities to B.C.’s suburban and vast rural communities, in every part of our province where opportunity and a safe, just, and sustainable future are what people are clamouring for.
Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen, and perhaps their West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Green colleague Jeremy Valeriote, have four years to re-invent the Green movement in Canada, to position the party as a viable and electable political force right across the province, to next time out, in 2024, steal a few seats from both the NDP and the B.C. Liberals, and grow the party.

After the writ was dropped and during the campaign, Premier John Horgan stated that he would not recognize the B.C. Green Party as deserving of party status, with all the financial and research supports that are available to a recognized political party, in the British Columbia Legislature. Should Premier Horgan fulfill his election commitment that four seats would be required to afford the B.C. Green Party status in the people’s house, Ms. Furstenau’s work to establish the B.C. Green Party as a truly viable political force across the province will be made that much more challenging.
Still, regardless of the decision Premier Horgan takes, Sonia Furstenau knows what she must do to gain seats in the house when the next provincial election is called four years from now: establish active constituency associations in all 87 ridings across the province, bring credible and electable candidates like Canadian marine biologist Alexandra Morton and energy and climate policy activist and academician Dr. Devyani Singh into the fold, to ensure that in 2024, the B.C. Green Party will field a slate of undeniable candidates who will win their ridings, and join Ms. Furstenau and Mr. Olsen with seats in the British Columbia Legislature.
Rarely has there been a more exciting time in B.C. politics — the closest we can recall is Dave Barrett’s activist government of the early 70s — when change and hope for a better, and a more sustainable future are not just the political agenda, but on the agenda of all progressive citizens.
As B.C.’s young climate justice activists, so inspired by Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg, go to the polls in ever increasing numbers in the years to come — as young people across the U.S. are doing now, in greater numbers and with greater force than at any time since the 1960s — hope for better is on the agenda, a hope that is best realized through broad support for the only political party in our province committed to a sustainable future that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs …

to maintain and improve human capital in society through increased investments in our health and education systems, with access to services, nutrition, knowledge and skills;
to preserve social capital by investing and creating services that constitute the framework of our society, focusing on maintaining and improving social equality with concepts such as cohesion, reciprocity and honesty, and the importance of collaborative relationships amongst people, encouraged and supported by laws, information and shared ideas of equality and rights, and recognizing that the economy and society and the ecological system are mutually dependent;
to maintain high and stable levels of economic growth as a key objective of sustainable development, and recognizing that abandoning economic growth is not an option, but that sustainable development is more than just economic growth, that the quality of growth matters as well as the quantity; and to improve human welfare through the protection of natural capital (e.g. land, air, water, minerals etc.), with initiatives and programmes that are defined as environmentally sustainable when they ensure that the needs of British Columbia’s citizens are met without the risk of compromising the needs of future generations.

By identifying and implementing the principles of the four pillars of sustainability through, as elucidated above, strategically sustainable initiatives, British Columbians might come to realize both a vibrant economic and an environmentally sustainable future for all of our citizens, in every town, city and village across every region of our natural province.

#BC Poli | What’s Next on British Columbia’s Political Agenda? |Pt 2

October 26, 2020BC Politics, PoliticsRaymond Tomlin

VanRamblings spent election day with Vancouver-Point Grey New Democratic Party candidate and recent Minister of Justice and Attorney General, David Eby, waving signs and greeting and speaking with voters, as throughout the day the indefatigable Mr. Eby stated that he seemed certain that he was in the political fight of life, his prospects for re-election uncertain, arising from the upbeat, intently focused campaign his BC Green Party rival, Dr. Devyani Singh, had waged, and although he didn’t say so, also arising from the campaign his B.C. Liberal opponent, Mark Bowen, had run — a world class dirty campaign that all but accused the ever-so-kind, humble and always gracious and forthcoming MLA — friend to many, always on your side, there for you in times of personal crisis, who operates one of the most activist constituency offices in the province — of “foul play,” involving the death of a young woman on October 19th, whose remains were found inside a recycling bin near Hadden Beach, situated between Kitsilano Beach & Vancouver’s Maritime Museum. Bad form, Mr. Bowen.

Fortunately, David’s campaign manager, Gala Milne, was more upbeat about the prospects of her candidate winning re-election in his west side Vancouver riding. Of course, there was VanRamblings, who assured Mr. Eby that, “David, you are the most trusted political figure in the province. However effective Dr. Singh’s campaign may prove to be, you are certain to be re-elected with a comfortable and comforting margin of victory.”

David smiled wanly, but with a renewed spring in his step as he moved to speak with a handful of ethusiastic voters — socially safe distanced, with everyone wearing masks — happy to see the candidate for whom they had cast their ballot earlier in the day, wishing David well, and good fortune.

Post 2020 British Columbia Provincial Election News

Besieged and beleagured B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson announced at a press conference yesterday that he would be resigning his leadership of the party, and staying on in his current role until such time as a new leader is chosen. Only thing is, though, he didn’t consult with his caucus before he made his terse 97-second announcement at 2pm yesterday afternoon. There are those in the party, and the B.C. Liberal caucus, who would like to see him leave now, and an interim leader appointed pending a set date for the upcoming leadership race.

Well, here we are in the middle of a pandemic when potential leadership hopefuls couldn’t possibly wage any kind of high profile campaign to win the leadership of the party — and there’s a big “if” involved in that calculation. The B.C. Liberal Party is in such rough shape that they’re likely to be out of power for the next couple of elections — kind of like the federal Liberals were for 11 years when Stephen Harper was in power, and where both the woebegone Saskatchewan NDP and a glum federal Conservative Party find themselves at the moment. Still and all, contenders for the B.C. Liberal leadership will emerge. Kamloops MLA Todd Stone, if he can keep his nose clean, as he couldn’t in 2018 will run. Former Surrey Mayor and Conservative MP Dianne Watts would be presumed to run for the leadership — but under current Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum her beloved home town is in such terrible shape she’s under a great deal of pressure to announce her 2022 candidacy for Surrey Mayor. Then there’s Vancouver MLA Michael Lee — but word on the street is that he wants to run for Mayor of Vancouver in 2022. Vancouver City Councillor Sarah Kirby-Yung — a progressive, quasi-left-of-centre political figure — could make a run; she’s certainly got a team in place to mount a winning bid for the B.C. Liberal leadership.

Premier John Horgan announced yesterday afternoon that there would be a delay in the $1,000 COVID-19 relief benefit his party had committed to getting out the door by early December, stating that resultant from a count of the mail-in ballots that could finish as late as November 16th. “”We are going to await the final results, a new government will be sworn in towards the end of November, and then we will look to see if there is any time left for a legislative session that could get the payment out the door for the holiday season,” Horgan said, adding that he will continue to operate as Premier, while his other ministers will continue to serve in their pre-election jobs until a new cabinet is sworn in.

Cabinet Sweepstakes. Who’s In? Who’s Out? What’ll Occur?

Well, you can say good-bye to seven of John Horgan’s first term Cabinet ministers pictured above, all of whom chose not to run in 2020, including outgoing Finance Minister Carole James; Shane Simpson, minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction; Doug Donaldson, Minister of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development; Judy Darcy, minister for Mental Health and Addictions; Michelle Mungall, minister of Jobs and Economic Development; Scott Fraser, Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation, and Claire Trevena, Transportation Minister.
As we wrote yesterday, our beloved David Eby is on his way out of the hard slogging Minister of Justice & Attorney General portfolio, to be replaced by incoming Oak Bay-Gordon Head MLA, Murray Rankin, leaving Mr. Eby headed to a “good news,” high profile Housing portfolio — where David Eby could fulfill a key BC NDP promise, and build the 110,000 truly affordable homes under housed British Columbians need — housing as a human right.
In the first term of the Horgan government David Eby sat as a member of the Inner Cabinet, where all the important decisions of the government were made, sitting with Horgan’s trusted advisors, Finance Minister Carole James, Health Minister Adrian Dix, and Solicitor General and Minister of Public Safety Mike Farnworth, and the Premier’s Chief of Staff, Geoff Meggs, as an ex-officio member of the inner circle of the B.C. NDP government.
For those who don’t know, David Eby is the “chosen one” — John Horgan’s preferred successor, should he decide to step down as Premier at age 63 in late 2023, after 33 years working in and around government.
David Eby has been groomed for the role of Premier dating back to the time when then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix made Mr. Eby the outsized focus of his attention for election to office. In order to pave the way for his chosen successor, Horgan will need to create the conditions for Mr. Eby that will all but guarantee his ascension to the Premier’s office — that means, treating David Eby as he has his friend, Health Minister Adrian Dix, by giving Housing Minister Eby the budget necessary (Horgan has doubled the Health care budget for Dix, since 2017) to not only fulfill the BC NDP affordable housing commitment, but succeed in making David Eby the Minister of Good News for the Horgan government, and Horgan’s natural successor.

What’s that you say? Cough, cough. You thought newly-elected Stikine MLA Nathan Cullen would become the next Premier, when Mr. Horgan steps down? So naïve. Throughout the election, you had John Horgan telling any reporter who’d listen, how “stupid” Nathan Cullen was for an off-hand remark he’d made during a Zoom campaign function, about a Haida Nation B.C. Liberal North Coast candidate, Roy S Jones Jr.
Prior to Cullen’s gaffe, Mr. Cullen was slated to take over the role of Finance Minister from Carole James, a role he’d played as shadow Cabinet Minister under federal NDP leaders Jack Layton, Tom Mulcair and Jagmeet Singh.
Should Premier Horgan pull a Christy Clark — when she appointed her unambitious lapdog, Mike De Jong as Finance Minister in 2014 — and appoint trusted lieutenant Mike Farnworth as his incoming, second-term Finance Minister, you’ll know that Nathan Cullen is not only in John Horgan’s doghouse, it’d be a sign that the Premier has no intention of giving Cullen a high profile role in his government, to aid his ambitions to take over as leader of the British Columbia New Democratic Party.
Politics. Ain’t it a barrel o’ laughs.
Still and all, Nathan Cullen is not to be denied, whatever the Premier’s intentions. Quite simply, Nathan Cullen is the single most charismatic politician in Canada, if not the continent. In the 1970s, the greatest delight voters could experience was to listen to “Little Fat Dave” Barrett on the campaign trail, a mix of the politics of author and comedian Charles Demers, and the most engaging of vaudeville performers. If you’ve ever heard Nathan Cullen speak, and watched him keep an audience spellbound for an hour relating how he got into politics, you’ve found yourself fortunate to witness magic. Make no mistake: Nathan Cullen will run for leader of the B.C. NDP one day, David Eby or no David Eby, Horgan or no John Horgan.

The Horgan Cabinet Sweepstakes. All The Remaining NDP Electeds
Newly-elected Vancouver-False Creek MLA, and Sam Sullivan Giant Killer, Brenda Bailey is headed to Jobs and Economic Development. Bowinn Ma, who won her North Vancouver-Lonsdale riding with 58.11% of the vote, and brought along newly-elected North Vancouver-Seymour MLA Susie Chant with her, is slated for big things in a second-term Horgan government — Minister of Transportation would be both a logical and a good fit, but let’s face it, Bowinn Ma can write her own ticket when it comes to Cabinet. Of course, Premier John Horgan will keep a 50-50 gender balance in Cabinet, while ensuring regional representation in his Cabinet.
Tofino mayor Josie Osborne, the newly-elected Mid Island-Pacific Rim MLA, could very well fit into her predecessor’s role as Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation, or perhaps Minister of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, while re-elected Nanaimo MLA Sheila Malcolmson could step in as Environment Minister, and newly-elected North Island MLA Michele Babchuk becomes incoming Education Minister — because current, beleaguered Education Minister Rob Fleming will certainly be vacating his post come the end of November. The Premier will want to place Mr. Fleming in a low profile portfolio where he can do no harm. So, that takes care of Vancouver Island.
In Metro Vancouver, Adrian Dix returns as Health Minister, David Eby — as above — goes to Housing, re-elected West End MLA Spencer Chandra Herbert becomes the new Speaker of the House, George Heyman is shuffled to the Ministry of Labour, while the current Minister, Harry Bains becomes Minister of Citizens’ Services, while Anne Kang shuffles into a new, as yet undecided role in an expanded second-term John Horgan Cabinet, while Katrina Chen becomes Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction, shutting out activist Vancouver-Kingsway MLA Cabinet Minister Mable Elmore (alas). Rubbing salt into Ms. Elmore’s wounds, word on the street is that first-term Vancouver-Hastings MLA Niki Sharma is slated for a junior portfolio in a second-term B.C. New Democrat Horgan Cabinet.
Selina Robinson retains her role as Minister of Municipal Affairs, George Chow remains Minister of State for Trade, Mike Farnworth becomes remains House Leader, and either maintains his Solicitor General / Public Safety portfolio, or becomes the new Finance Minister, newly-elected New Westminster MLA Jennifer Whiteside transitions into Judy Darcy’s old role as Minister of Mental Health and Addictions. Bruce Ralston returns as Minister of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources. Lisa Beare remains Minister of Tourism, Arts and Culture. Melanie Mark could very well become Education Minister if Michele Babchuk is not given the role, although it’s possible that Ms. Mark could become Minister of Children and Family Development, leaving the current Minister, Katrine Conroy to transition into a new, as yet undefined role. Or Katrina Conroy emerges as Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation, if that role doesn’t go to newly-elected and first term Langley MLA Andrew Mercier. Then there’s recent Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP MP, Fin Donnelly — now the newly-elected MLA for Coquitlam-Burke Mountain — who was an NDP stalwart federally. Seems to this writer, that the world of British Columbia politics is Mr. Donnelly’s oyster, and he can rest assured that Mr. Horgan has much good that is in store for him. This prediction business — it can all be just a bit too much.
Should Nathan Cullen lose his opportunity to take on the Finance portfolio, he becomes the new Minister of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development, taking on the role of his predecessor, Doug Donaldson. Lana Popham proved a popular and competent Minister of Agriculture in the first term Horgan Cabinet, so that’s where she’ll stay — unless Mr Horgan makes the changes outlined above. Mr. Horgan, with a larger caucus, could not split Ministries, hiving them off. We’ll see.
And, then, there are all the Parliamentary Secretary positions to fill (hello, Mable Elmore), as well as two deputy speaker positions to aid Spencer Chandra Herbert, and committee chair positions — ain’t nobody gonna be left wanting in the NDP caucus by the time Horgan is done making his appointments. And there’s all that extra cash, too, that caucus members will make for the work they’re taking on to make change for the better.

We’ll leave you with this for today. Longtime journalist Tom Hawthorn — with whom I worked at The Peak student newspaper at SFU in the late seventies / early 80s, when I was working on my Masters, and he and Deb Wilson were an item, not that Tom’s ever remembs me … there’s something to be said for being unmemorable and an anonymous figure to people I’ve met and worked with over the years (& having a great memory) — and his reflection in The Tyee on the meaning of Decision 2020 …

No PST. More cops. Private auto insurance. The BC Liberals ran an exemplary campaign — for rural Alberta.

A party that is too male, too white and too clearly uninterested in the life of people without stock (whether in a safe deposit box in the city or on the range in the Cariboo) took a shellacking. Rebuilding will be hard, as the Liberals are saddled with out-of-touch social conservatives. Is there a conversion therapy capable of making Laurie Throness love all God’s children?

For 75 years, a coalition of business interests — operating as (no kidding) the Coalition, the Social Credit party and, after a hostile takeover in 1993, the BC Liberals — has existed solely to keep the CCF/NDP out of power while sharing the spoils among friends. (You don’t triple delete computer files when you’re doing good deeds.) Before John Horgan, the NDP served as government in this province for just 13 years. The party last won a plurality of the vote 29 years ago. With dominance on Vancouver Island and in Greater Vancouver, combined with forays deep into the previously infertile soil of the Fraser Valley, Horgan’s NDP is positioning itself as the preferred choice for a diverse coalition of voters, including young suburban families. (How’s that for irony? The BC Liberals’ decades-long neglect on the housing file has contributed to demographic changes now costing them once-guaranteed ridings).

The NDP’s strategic ambition is to replace a pro-business party as the voters’ default choice. Last night’s landslide was either a once-in-a-generation fluke, or the beginning of a historic political realignment. Evidence suggests it is more the latter.

A few more brief notes: Voters reward good governance. Thanks to Sonia Furstenau’s steady presence in the debates, the Greens earned a last-minute reprieve from the executioner. They will be rejoicing, but the party’s vote total decreased slightly from three years ago and they remain a minor party. The banning of corporate and union money was an under reported element in the campaign. No last-minute infusion of cash could rescue the Liberals or doom the Greens.

Both Furstenau and Horgan opened with Indigenous land acknowledgements. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, speaking at the One Wall Centre in Vancouver, did not do so. How come Wilkinson didn’t at least give a territorial acknowledgement to Peter Wall?

Horgan will surpass Dave Barrett’s tenure as Premier on Wednesday and Glen Clark’s tenure 86 days after that. He is 54 weeks behind Mike Harcourt’s tenure as longest serving NDP Premier.

Well, that’s it for today — not as pointed and as riotous a column as I’d originally intended (it must be this getting old thing) — but part two of VanRamblings’ post mortem on our recently completed (well, almost over) BC provincial election. More tomorrow. All about the B.C. Green Party.

#BC Poli | John Horgan Wins Majority Government NDP Sought

October 26, 2020BC Politics, PoliticsRaymond Tomlin

On Saturday night, Premier John Horgan and British Columbia’s New Democratic Party became the first BC NDP government to win back-to-back elections with the same Premier. John Horgan made history Saturday night.
At present, there are some 500,000 outstanding mail-in ballots yet to be counted, but no matter the outcome of the final ballot count, a re-elected Premier John Horgan will remain in place, with a majority government.

Although soon-to-be outgoing B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson failed to concede defeat election night, he did so on Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, B.C. Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau — whose party, at last count, had managed to maintain three seats in the B.C. Legislature — was somewhat less sanguine than her B.C. Liberal counterpart, as she continued to berate re-elected Premier John Horgan for calling a “needless election in the middle of a pandemic,” failing to recognize that the election is over, that a winner has been declared, and such circumstance most generally is best served by a good measure of graciousness and humility.

Of course, the good folks who represent the proportional representation movement — whose numbers include a good portion of B.C. Green party supporters — were quick to point out that Mr. Horgan had not won a plurality of the votes, and as such, his was an “illegitimate” government.

All of which whinging has no effect — at least for now, when incumbent governments seem loathe to change a voting system which, more often than not rewards them with government — and won’t buy you a coffee.

VanRamblings has no great insight, nor any particular reflection on Decision 2020 that we’re prepared to publish today — that’ll come tomorrow.
On Wednesday, we plan to write about the B.C. Green Party fortunes going forward — and lest you be concerned, we intend to be generous.
Suffice to say for now that the B.C. NDP got the majority they wanted, the B.C. Liberal party did as badly as the polls — and their godawful, off-the-rails campaign — had predicted they would, that against expectation both incumbent B.C. Greens, Ms. Furstenau and Adam Olsen, won re-election and although, as expected, the B.C. Greens lost former B.C. Green leader Andrew Weaver’s old riding of Oak Bay-Gordon (to former federal NDP MP Murray Rankin, likely to become British Columbia’s next Minister of Justice and Attorney General), B.C. Green candidate Jeremy Valeriote appears on track, at this writing, to win the seat of West Vancouver – Sea to Sky.
VanRamblings supposes, as well, that it is incumbent on us to comment on the B.C. NDP wins in Surrey, Langley and the Fraser Valley.

Former Surrey City Councillor, Mike Starchuk, became the winning British Columbia New Democratic Party candidate in the Surrey-Cloverdale riding on Saturday night.

Who’da thunk in a million years that the once invincible B.C. Liberal seat of Surrey-Cloverdale, held for many years by the all powerful Kevin Falcon, and most recently by popular former Surrey City Councillor, Marvin Hunt, would turn orange, and become an NDP seat, won by former Surrey City Councillor Mike Starchuk — in a walk, with 50.14% of the vote?

Liberal MLA Mary Polak soundly defeated as her party runs an anti-LGBTQ campaign

Langley. Former right-of-centre, “ain’t gonna allow no ‘two dads’ books in our school system, no sirree‘ Surrey School Board Chairperson, and for four consecutive terms winner of her in-the-heart of Langley riding, recent B.C. Liberal house leader and, in various terms in government dating back to 2005, Minister of the Environment, Transportation and Infrastructure, Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation, Children and Family Development and Minister Responsible for Child Care, and Minister of Healthy Living and Sport, the indefatigable Mary Polak, lost her seat. That’s a shocker.
The people who live out Langley way are supposed to be troglodytes, and aren’t supposed to be voting for those damnable socialists in the New Democratic Party, and turning over not one but both of the Langley seats, including Rich Coleman’s Langley East seat, where the NDP’s Megan Dykeman — a Langley farmer, Managing Director of a small business, 10 year Trustee and current Chair of the Langley Board of Education — continues to hold onto the riding by the thinnest of electoral margins, as she awaits the results of the final vote count next month. But still …

At this writing it appears the New Democrats have taken both Chilliwack ridings, long-held BC Liberal seats, long thought to be ultra-conservative.
Incumbent BC Liberals John Martin in Chilliwack and Laurie Throness in Chilliwack-Kent were challenged not just by the NDP but from a right-of-centre vote-splitting problem in the form of a surging and popular BC Conservative candidate, Diane Janzen. With the results of this election, it would seem the political landscape of the Fraser Valley is changing.

Final note for today.
All and all, John Horgan was “lucky” to win the size of majority he did.
Why?
Had the B.C. Liberal campaign collapsed as badly as many were predicting, and John Horgan had to deal with an outsized caucus of, say, 69 elected Members of the Legislature — a goodly number of whom would be in the climate action camp, and likely to be shut out from Cabinet, Parliamentary Secretary or Committee Chair positions — he would have had a problem on his hands responding to a discontented, disenfranchised, yet inspired Green New Deal brigade of climate change activists deep within his NDP caucus, giving rise to the age old proverb, “idle hands are the devil’s playthings”, or in plainer English, when one is unoccupied or has nothing to do, one is more likely to cause or get into trouble — and insist on climate justice. Fortunate for Mr. Horgan, for now at least he’s avoided such an ill fate.