Decision 2021 | Day 10 | A Survey of Perspectives on #Elxn44

Justin Trudeau smirking

Today, VanRamblings was planning on publishing a satirical column on Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives aka the Canadian Taliban, but truth to tell we’re simply not in the mood. Instead, on this late August summer’s day, please find below a series of “items” of possible interest pertaining to #Elxn44.
Kiavash Najafi over at Press Progress, the publishing division of the left-wing Broadbent Institute think tank, writes …

“We’re more than a week into a snap election in Canada and the top question on everyone’s mind is still: Why are we having this election?

Opinion polls have been consistently good for Trudeau’s party. The pandemic measures that came out of the minority parliament are popular with Canadians. And, until recently, every provincial government that went through an election during the pandemic ended up winning big.

Very good. Last year, poll after poll showed him with support between mid-30 and low-40 per cent, with the Conservatives performing much lower than their 2019 election results. A government’s ability to manage the timing of an election gives it an upper hand. But it’s not always a sure bet. Snap elections can snap back and snap hard.

So how’s Trudeau doing?

Not great, to be honest. We’re more than a week into the campaign and everyone is still wondering why we’re having this election. And his party is the only major party that hasn’t introduced a platform yet. Still, a lot can change in the next few weeks. At this point in the campaign, Trudeau is still first in most polls, but definitely not in the majority territory anymore.

And his drop in the polls isn’t helping the Conservatives much. Most projections suggest that Trudeau would see a modest increase to the number of his MP’s. Conservatives are likely to lose a few seats. It looks like Jagmeet Singh and the NDP could be the main beneficiaries of an election they didn’t want.”

Um, the projections above hardly match the latest polls. Whereas it seems likely that Jagmeet Singh’s NDP will pick up a few seats, as will Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives, the only reason why Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are hanging on — at least on Day 10 — is thanks to the almost complete collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote, and the record unpopularity of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, which may result in a seat gain of as many as six Liberal seats in Alberta, and as many as 20 additional seats in Québec.
Of course, it’s still very early in #Campaign44 — anything could happen.

Canadian Tories: greed, fear and arrogance

Going negative. Justin Trudeau and members of his cabinet have been attacking Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives on mandatory vaccines, abortion and conscience rights, and universal health care. Former Liberal Rick Anderson, who morphed into a Reform Party / Canadian Alliance, and then Stephen Harper strategic advisor and acolyte, got to wondering …

Political stragegist Rick Anderson wonders why the Liberals are running a negative campaign


How the West was Won, predictions and projection on British Columbia in the 2021 federal election

Meanwhile, Mike McDonald, who ran Christy Clark’s miraculous come from behind 2013 British Columbia campaign for office, who now pours his thoughts into his Rosedeer blog, recently told Politico’s Zi-Ann Lum …

“These days, Conservatives are nowhere in Vancouver, so the riding of Vancouver-Granville is safe for the Liberals unless they get knocked off their stride which, of course, would be welcome news for high-profile NDP candidate Anjali Appadurai, who recently won the nomination race to represent Vancouver-Granville.

Anjali Appadurai, the the NDP candidate in the riding of Vancouver Granville in 2021Anjali Appadurai, the high profile NDP 2021 hopeful in Vancouver Granville.

“Ridings the Liberals won in 2015 and lost in 2019 are probably the first places the Grits will look to win back seats,” says McDonald. “That means: Vancouver Granville; Steveston-Richmond East; Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge; Cloverdale-Langley City; Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon; and, in the Okanagan, the very winnable riding of Kelowna-Lake Country.”

“What with raging wildfires burning across the province, and what looks to be the nascent beginning of a fourth wave of the pandemic, climate change and COVID-19 vaccines are two issues that are likely to resonate with British Columbia voters as they head to the polls in mid-September,” suggests McDonald. “Although those are national issues, they might play out in British Columbia more so than other regions. If that comes to pass, the advantage would go to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.”

Meanwhile, B.C. riding-wise, Politico’s Nick Taylor-Vaisey weighs in with …

“Another riding Team Trudeau lost in 2019 was South Surrey-White Rock. It went blue in 2015, red in a 2017 byelection, and blue again in 2019. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is also looking to make gains in B.C. after losing Nanaimo-Ladysmith; Port Moody-Coquitlam; and Kootenay-Columbia.”

Wondering which ridings are in play in British Columbia? Now you know.

Decision Canada: coverage of the 2021 Canadian federal election

As always, VanRamblings will complete the day’s post with …

David Herle, Scott Reid, Jenni Byrne | Curse of Politics podcast | August 24, 2021.

Decision 2021 | Day 9 | Lib Support Softens as Tories Gain Ground

2021 Canadian federal election polling for August 23, 2021

Given the state of the election, the Liberals and the Conservatives are almost exactly where they want to be: tightening polls allows the Liberals to scare the beejuzus out of New Democratic Party supporters, none of whom could stomach an Erin O’Toole victory at the polls on Monday, September 20th — which will cause a wholesale defection of NDP voters to the Liberals, as occurred in the 2015 and 2019 federal elections.
Meanwhile, Erin O’Toole — who has spent an inordinate amount of time in Alberta, since campaign outset, shoring up the failing Tory vote in Alberta — given the record unpopularity of beleaguered Premier Jason Kenney, and his ongoing failure to responsibly address the pandemic, dating back to the inception of COVID-19 — by scaring the beejuzus out of voters for both the nascent, Alberta-based Maverick Party, which was polling at 20% in ridings outside of the urban and suburban metropolitan areas of Edmonton and Calgary, and for Maxime Bernier’s libertarian, anti-vaxxer People’s Party of Canada, which was polling at anywhere between eight and ten percent in the polls across northern British Columbia and the Prairie provinces.

Justin Trudeau targeted by Conservative Party with unflattering depiction of the Prime Minister

Now, according to insider party polling for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, Erin O’Toole has been able to convince disaffected Tory voters that a vote for either the Maverick Party or the People’s Party of Canada is a vote for another Liberal government in Ottawa led by Justin Trudeau — who many on the right believe to be not only an apostate, but the devil incarnate himself, Tory voters as disdaining of the current Prime Minister as most progressives are of the much-reviled Donald Trump.

Projected seat count in the House of Commons, 2021 federal election, August 23 2021

Unless Justin Trudeau and the Liberals can turn their lacklustre campaign around, and remind voters that their personal safety vis-à-vis government response to the COVID-19 pandemic depends almost entirely on re-electing a Liberal government — I mean, really, do you want what’s occurred in Alberta and Ontario to roll out nationally, under an Erin O’Toole administration in Ottawa, the kind of butchery we’ve witnessed down south under a Donald Trump administration, and continue to witness in Florida with Governor Ron DeSantis, or in Texas under Governor Greg Abbott?
No, I didn’t think so.
Not to mention that an Erin O’Toole administration would jettison the wildly popular national child care programme, to which eight provinces and territories have signed on, which will build hundreds of thousands of child care spaces over the course of the next five years — or what about preservation of the current Child Care Benefit programme brought in by the Trudeau government, which has reduced child poverty in Canada by 40% since 2015 — which would be cancelled by an Erin O’Toole-led government. Gonzo. Cuz Erin O’Toole and his band of regressives don’t care about families. Little wonder women are refusing to cast a ballot for the Tories.
Or how about old folks?
Only the Liberal party has a concrete plan to improve the living conditions and the safety of residents in long term care and assisted living facilities, which over the past year contributed to the deaths of more than 20,000 seniors across Canada. And why is Justin Trudeau not reminding Canadians that Erin O’Toole’s Conservative party voted against the bill that would outlaw conversion therapy, in a direct attack against the life and liberty of members of the LGBTQ community? Or the Tory plan to “limit” access to reproductive services for women living in the rural areas of Canada, access to which would be made near impossible thanks to the “conscience provisions” legislation Erin O’Toole has said he would introduce in Ottawa?
Honestly, ask yourself. Do you share Erin O’Toole’s values, do you hate members of the gender variant community, and women, seniors, children and the poor, who are struggling to get by, and lead a life of dignity?
Do you not care about these folks at all?
Then why, oh why, come late in the evening of Monday, September 20th, do you accept the prospect of an Erin O’Toole government in Ottawa, that would allow Mr. O’Toole to become Canada’s 43rd Prime Minister, offering a Stephen Harper-style return to Tory intolerance and rampant corruption.
Campaigns matter, they always matter.
And, if you feel you can do little else during the course of the current federal election, the very least that you might do as a Canadian is cast a thoughtful ballot at the polls, recognizing the impact of your vote matters, really matters. Please vote consciously, wisely and with compassion.


After a weekend break, the Curse of Politics podcast returns, with political apparatchik hosts David Herle, Scott Reid and Jenni Byrne …

The indispensable #elxn44 Curse of Politics podcast for Monday, August 23, 2021.

Music Sunday | Divorce | The Birth of Phil Collins as a Superstar

Phil Collins, cover for his 1981 debut album, Face Value

For a great long while, Genesis drummer and replacement singer to the band’s original singer, the much beloved and high revered Peter Gabriel — a progressive rock superhero, songwriter, record producer and activist extraordinaire —&#32 when he broke away from the band in 1975 to launch a solo career, Phil Collins replaced him, which proved to be a far from salutary development for the band and for Collin’s nascent career, with Collins quickly becoming a figure of widespread derision among music critics, longtime fans of the band, and most members of the general public.

Phil Collins, with his first wife Andrea Bertorelli and their daughter Joely.Phil Collins with first wife Andrea Bertorelli and daughter Joely, circa 1979.

As if thing weren’t bad enough, in 1978 Collins went on a year-long hiatus from the band, moving to Vancouver in what would was destined to emerge as a vain attempt at repairing his marriage to Andrea Bertorelli, who had decamped from England to Lotusland, with Collins also working to maintain his relationship with his daughter Joely, an endeavour the was doomed to fail, with Collins returning to England in late 1979, at which time he went into seclusion for more than a year, despondent, near suicide and a drunk.
During his year-long period of seclusion, with regular therapy he eventually quit drinking, and at the suggestion of his therapist turned to his first love, writing music and lyrics, something he’d not done since early in his career, coming to terms with his divorce by pouring his heart out into 10 songs that eventually became his début album, Face Value, released in February 1981 on Virgin-Atlantic Records, reaching number in the charts across the globe, from the UK, U.S., Canada and Sweden to Austria, Germany, Ireland, New Zealand, Switzerland and the Netherlands, the album certified 5-times Platinum. Not bad for a washed up and much derided musician.
Today, then, Phil Collins’ Face Value, which 40 years ago helped me to traverse the shoals of my own nasty, contemptible and painful divorce.

Stories of a Life | COVID-19 | Division in the Time of a Pandemic

Anti vaxxer rally

COVID has proved a trying and divisive experience for many among us.

mother and son

One of my neighbours is a young mother with a two-year-old son. Happily married, her only source of concern is the welfare of her son during the current, extending COVID-19 pandemic. My neighbour’s concern for her son, shared by many in the housing co-operative in which we live, is that her neighbour is an intransigent woman who refuses to be vaccinated.
My neighbour’s very best friend in the world is a woman she has known since the two of them attended kindergarten together some two-plus decades ago, she herself a young mother, but with three young children all under the age of 12. Just like my neighbour, she too is happily married.
My young neighbour and her husband are fully vaccinated, her son not.

mother-3-children.jpg

My neighbour’s best friend is not vaccinated, nor will she consent to be vaccinated, and neither will she allow her three young children to be vaccinated, stating she doesn’t trust that the vaccine is safe. This woman’s loving and devoted husband, on the other hand, is fully vaccinated and a strong vaccine advocate, and has stated to his wife that he wants to ensure when a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available for those under age 12, his three children will be vaccinated — over which a marital dispute has arisen.
My neighbour has told her best friend that in the interest of the safety of her toddler son that she will not visit in the home of her cherished friend, and neither will she invite her friend to visit in her home, that she is free to believe as she wishes, but my neighbour will not put her son in any jeopardy that might compromise his health. My neighbour has told her friend they can get together outside, at a park, socially safe distanced.

children playing at the park

My neighbour is concerned that a lifelong friendship may be coming to an end, and her friend’s marriage may be in trouble resultant from the vaccination dispute, about which my neighbour feels quite some despair.

Vintage reporter at this typewriter, black and white photo

Me, I have a friend, a person who I’ve known for a quarter century, who lives in the Kits neighbourhood, and is both a prominent member of the community and a rabid anti-vaxxer, who believes the vaccine to be poison, and states to me that I am a “sheep”. This “friend” attends anti-vaxxer rallies, and despite being a member of the fourth estate to whom I have provided contact information in order that he might ask Dr. Henry directly, during her press briefings, that she address his concerns, has not done so.
As is the case with my neighbour, I too fear that a cherished friendship of some long duration and mutual respect is drawing to an untimely but necessary close, that his refusal to be vaccinated compromises not only his own health, but the health of everyone with whom he comes into contact.

COVID-19 spikes

A friend of mine was telling me the other day that one of her closest friends has not left her home since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 2020. Neither will she allow anyone to visit her, nor ever gone out into her backyard, but rather has fearfully kept herself a prisoner in her own home.
I, too, have a sustaining friend of some longstanding, someone who I’ve known for more than a quarter of a century, a person I’d worked with closely for a dozen years during my employment at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), dating back to 1996 — but, who since the pandemic was declared more than seventeen months ago, has not left his home, a spacious condominium located nearby Vancouver City Hall, a place he’s owned — with the mortgage paid off more than a decade ago — since the commencement of his employment with CMHC in 1979.

hoarder

All of my friend’s meals are ordered in, all purchases of any other goods or wants are ordered on line, and delivered to him, and left outside his door. Despite the fact my friend owns a new hybrid vehicle, and has a substantial pension, for almost 18 months he has refused to leave his apartment. For much of the first year of the pandemic, I set about to call him weekly, then (at his insistence) bi-weekly, then every three weeks and, finally, once a month. When I asked him how he was doing, he almost invariably replied, “I’m doing fine. I don’t need anyone, or feel the need for you to call me.”
I would ask him about his contact with his brother, or those in his social circle, and he would tell me that he had cut off all contact with family and friends. Finally, a year in, with little or no contact with the outside world, he told me emphatically that he no longer wanted me to call. I had encouraged him to mask up, and go for a drive in his new Toyota Prius hybrid, just to get out of the house, and see the world around him, an idea he told me that he thought was ridiculous. As of this writing, I’ve not spoken with him in months, and I find now that I’ve given up on him — not out of a lack of compassion, but in recognition of the fact that I am unable to provide support and succour to someone who doesn’t want the caring I proffer.
Another friend of mine was talking with me the other day about an acquaintance of hers who has steadfastly avoided learning anything about the pandemic, that although this person is well educated and otherwise well informed, that this acquaintance of hers studiously avoids reading or listening to anything to do with the current pandemic, whether it be information on the vaccines, or the current state of COVID-19 infection in our province, in Canada, or elsewhere — remaining utterly uninformed.
Once again, I too have a friend with whom I’ve worked with in the Coalition of Progressive Electors and the NDP for the past quarter century. This man — a year younger than me, as is my now former friend above — is a hale fellow well met, and well-liked by a broad cross-section of our mutual friends, and continues to this day to work full time in his chosen profession.
From Day One of the declaration of the pandemic, my friend has believed that COVID is a hoax, and has ignored it, stating that whatever is going on around him that causes people to wear masks has no direct impact on his life — that he will carry on with his life as normal. My friend has gone out of his way not to watch or listen to the news, and has therefore never watched or heard an Adrian Dix-Dr. Bonnie Henry press conference (in fact, does not know, or could care less, as to who Dr. Henry might be, and her role in keeping COVID-19 at bay in British Columbia, over the past 18 months). My friend last autumn even booked a non-refundable ticket to Cuba in order that he might enjoy a Christmas vacation in tropical climes — despite my advising him that the opportunity to travel to Cuba was probably not going to be possible, an idea my friend pooh-poohed.

anti vaxxer

The straw that broke the camel’s proverbial back occurred when were enjoying a mid-afternoon coffee at our neighbourhood Starbucks, sitting outside in the cool air, and socially distanced. As it was just after 3pm, I picked up my iPhone to read the latest British Columbia COVID figures — which that day established a new record for infections & deaths (10 deaths in the previous 24 hours in Vancouver alone). I advised my friend of the latest provincial COVID results, to which information in reply he snapped back at me, “What do I care? How’s that information relevant to me?”
I advised my friend that the deaths covered a range of ages, that each person was a person of value, a father or mother, a sister or brother, aunt of uncle, a neighbour, friend or colleague of someone resident in our community, and because Vancouver is in essence a village, a small town, that given the theory of seven degrees of separation, it is likely that he knows someone who knew, or was close to the, then, more than 1,500 British Columbians who had succumbed to the coronavirus — and that, at any rate, any early or untimely death is a tragedy, for each of us and for the community. Scowling at me, he got up and walked away.
We have not spoken since.
All of us have sacrificed over the past year, some more than others. Health care providers, teachers, and public health officials have put their needs aside for the sake of their communities, the country, and the entire world, really. People have lost their jobs, and in Canada more than 27,000 Canadians have lost their lives. The toll of this pandemic is staggering.

COVID relationships

The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our personal relationships in unprecedented ways, forcing us to live closer together with some people and further apart from others, with social distancing measures isolating us from our friends and wider communities. Socializing with others is a fundamental human need, the strain of the COVID-19 pandemic on relationships laid bare for many of us this last eighteen months.
Abundant research suggests that supportive relationships can help relieve harmful stress, with physical and mental benefits that include resistance to viruses. Yet our year and a half ride on the coronacoaster has frayed many of our relationships, and in some cases destroyed the bonds that in simpler times might have helped carry us through.
Many of us have lost some friends for good, but the overall quality of our friendships with others has improved. As a friend stated to me recently, “If you’re supposedly my friend,” she averred, “and you don’t accept my wishes about safety, then you’re really not my friend.”

“Good health depends not only on the closeness of our ties but also on their nature,” says Henry Stanford, a neuroscientist at the University of Western Ontario, his recent study suggesting that “ambivalent relationships, those combining affection and hostility — like so many family ties — create chronic stress that can ultimately damage health. This sometimes gets lost when we talk about social isolation. It’s not as if we just need to make people more engaged with others. We also have to pay more attention to the negativity in some relationships.”

The pandemic’s toll on many of our friendships goes deeper than mere political polarization —&#32the confusion of a mask with support for ‘big government’, for instance. It’s more about discovering personality differences between you and your relatives and friends, including different levels of risk-tolerance and what might seem like irrational optimism on one side vs. hysterical alarmism on the other. At a time when many of us are losing sleep, picturing ourselves or someone we love gasping for air in a crowded emergency room, these differences are painfully relevant.
Because of the pandemic, the way we communicate and relate to one another has changed. Some relationships disintegrated because of close proximity, or the lack thereof. As we enter the fourth wave of the pandemic, and a cooler and more isolating autumn and winter seasons are on the near horizon, for many of us the pandemic is far from over. The good part of the pandemic, though, is that while we have “lost” some friends, and our relationship with some members of our family has become strained, our relationships with others has both been clarified and strengthened, as we have come to realize that we share beliefs in common and an approach to life that serves not just our own interests, but the interests of all.