Decision 2021 | Day 30 | The State of the Race | Progressivism Reigns

Decision Canada 2021, Politics, , , ,

With only one week to go, Canadians — who just 11 days ago seemed almost completely unaware there was a federal election going on —  have come out of their slumber, and in vast numbers have set about to change the complexion of the current election.

Here’s what the polls were looking like on September 2nd …

On Thursday, September 2nd, Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives seemed to have the election in the bag, their policy-driven campaign a wild success, while at the same time Jagmeet Singh’s federal NDP campaign had caught fire, and catapulted the usual also-ran social democrats into second place, and ready to assume the mantle of Opposition party in the next session of Parliament.

So, what happened in 11 days to turn the Liberal campaign around?

1. Voters took a closer look at a Conservative Party platform that would annul a national child care programme signed onto by eight provinces and territories; nullify a Canada Child Care benefit programme that has provided much needed aid to young families, while cutting child poverty in Canada by 40% since 2015; rescind the ban on tanker traffic along British Columbia’s pristine coast; and reverse the current ban on assault weapons that have murdered so many of our fellow citizens; among dozens of other provocations;

2. Canadians took a closer look at the fiasco that is pandemic policy in the four provinces where the Conservative party is in power, and what that might mean for Tory pandemic policy federally. The provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan —  both of which refuse to consider a vaccine card to help keep their citizens safe —  have the highest per capita COVID-19 infection rates in Canada, and a citizen vaccination rate lower than anywhere else in the country, where the Premiers of these provinces say, “Everything is back to normal. We had lockdowns, quarantined our citizens, did contract tracing, and spent far too much taxpayer money on fighting a war against an invisible foe.” Recently resigned Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and Ontario Premier in hiding, Doug Ford, have done little better in protecting their citizens and fighting the scourge that is COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/EDenhoff/status/1436810714677604352?s=20

Canadian voters aren’t stupid: they know what an Erin O’Toole government would mean for the health of their families.

3. If Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have risen 5.8 points in the polls in the past 11 days, and Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives have lost 8.7 points in Canada-wide polling, the party that has experienced the steepest decline in support is Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, who in falling from a September 2nd high of 28.4% to a mere 17.1% standing today — for an incredible (if not unexpected) drop of 11.3 percentage points — simply have to be reeling.

Although, the NDP will pick up three seats if the Mainstreet Research / iPolitics poll above is correct.

Election Day 2021 is but one short week away from today.

By late in the evening of Monday, September 20th, Canadians will know whether we’ve elected an Erin O’Toole government — certainly not out of the realm of possibility, given the volatility of the current election cycle — or returned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Ottawa, for what will likely be his final term in office, allowing him to complete his work on creating a national child care programme, and seeing us through this pandemic that has so disrupted the lives of all Canadians.

Arts Friday | The Much Anticipated Autumn Film Festival Season Underway

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In 2021, wherever a film festival may take place, appropriate COVID protocols will be in place, including mandatory masks in the screening rooms and common areas, and proof that cinephile patrons have been vaccinated.

The pandemic – particularly given the ravages of the COVID-19 fourth wave – will probably mean, and has meant at the Telluride and Venice film festivals, prejudiced attendance numbers at fall film festivals. As was the case in 2020 – and once again will be so in 2021 – films on offer will be made available for home viewing, with a small number of films  available exclusively for in-person screenings. In other words, in order for film festivals to “work” in 2021, festival directors have adopted a “hybrid model” to satisfy the viewing demands of their loyal patrons.

At Telluride and Venice, major film studios made their star-driven, Oscar contending film slates available to these two prestigious film festivals, as will be the case in Toronto – which got underway yesterday – and later this month in Gotham City, at the 59th annual New York Film Festival, which will share half their slate with VIFF.

At Telluride and Venice, Hollywood stars turned out in all their finery, engaging in post screening discussions with audiences, sitting in rapt & appreciative attention.

Above is a clip of Japanese-English director Will Sharpe’s The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, a whimsical Victorian biopic starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Claire Foy — which, it was announced at the annual Vancouver International Film Festival media conference has been selected as VIFF40’s opening night film, on October 1st.

“Movies are a distraction from reality,” says a character in Paolo Sorrentino’s Hand of God — which débuted at Telluride — a sprawling, funny-sad, autobiographical coming-of-age story. That’s a good thing. Reality is drab and painful — “lousy,” according to the film’s English subtitles — and film provides a much needed respite.

The break-out Oscar contenders that débuted at Telluride include …

Cyrano, a lovely new telling of the classic story of Cyrano de Bergerac, which had its world première at Telluride, and took that film festival by storm — with guaranteed Oscar nods all around;

https://youtu.be/MUnsoxe7K4g

The North American première of Spencer, the mesmerizing new drama starring Kristen Stewart (a guaranteed Best Actress Oscar nominee) as Princess Diana; and

The crowd-pleasing King Richard, a drama charting the rise of tennis superstars Venus and Serena Williams, expected to launch Will Smith into the Oscar race for his portrayal of the girls’ demanding dad and coach, Richard Williams — a loving, egocentric father who, it turns out, did know what was best for his daughters.

Céline Sciamma’s exquisite Petite Maman — which débuted at the Berlinale, and has been set as VIFF40’s closing night film (cuz it’s VIFF programmer, Curtis Woloschuk’s, favourite film at VIFF this year, he told VanRamblings earlier in the week — don’t tell anybody, though, cuz it’s a secret) — a delicate film full of surprises. Sciamma, whose Portrait of a Lady on Fire was a VIFF standout in 2019 (at the pre-pandemic VIFF festival), examines female intimacy from a different angle.

Nelly and Marion (played by young twins named Joséphine and Gabrielle Sanz) are 8-year-old girls living in similar houses in the woods. They strike up a friendship tinged with elements of fairy-tale supernaturalism, magical realism and time travel. The twists packed into the film’s compact 72 minutes arrive gently and matter-of-factly. The intense emotions they leave behind — this is one of the quietest tear-jerkers you’ll ever see — are at once familiar and wholly new.

Soon, the sane and responsible among us will be fully vaccinated and in possession of our province-issued vaccine card — making attendance at movie theatres, restaurants, bars and pubs safer and more enjoyable for the vast majority of us.

As much as COVID’s fourth wave will keep us in its troubling grip, for the most part it is the anti-social unvaccinated amongst us who will bear the malignant brunt of the coronavirus — for the rest of us, a return to a near normal state of being holds promise for our immediate future, and the prospect of an autumn movie-going season sitting amongst our brothers and sisters inside a darkened movie theatre.

Decision 2021 | Day 26 | Don’t Let Erin O’Toole Take Canada Backwards

Decision Canada 2021, Politics, , ,

Tonight, at 6pm PDT, the leaders of the five major political parties in Canada will face off against one another in a raucous Leaders’ Debate — in what could turn out to be a pivotal event in the current federal election, and Canadian history.

Climate change, child care, affordability, Indigenous reconciliation, justice, health care, foreign policy,  and COVID recovery will all be featured on tonight’s agenda.

In one of the most volatile federal elections in Canada’s long history, over the past week the probable outcome of the election has begun to come into clearer focus.

Jagmeet Singh’s duplicitous “When we form government on September 20th” campaign strategy in the latter days of #Election44 has seen New Democrat support in a tailspin. Registering at 26% support of Canadians aged 25 and under — the demographic least likely to make it the polls to vote — with the support of Canadians 54+ at a new low of just 13%, progressives are now deserting the party.

A national $10-a-day child care programme; continuation of the Canada Child Benefit that has reduced poverty among Canadian children by 40%; gun laws that banned rapid fire assault weapons — like the Ruger Mini-14 (used at the École Polytechnique shooting and in possession of the Nova Scotia gunman last year); the Beretta CX4 Storm (used at Dawson College), the M14 (used in Moncton); and the VZ58 (used in the Québec mosque shooting) — and the banning of tanker traffic along British Columbia’s coast are simply of too great an importance to progressive voters to risk the election of an Erin O’Toole-led Conservative Party to Ottawa.

No progressive with a conscience wants to see an Erin O’Toole government elected to Ottawa. As many of VanRamblings’ tried-and-true NDP supporter friends have voiced to us, “I’ll be voting strategically — and if that means voting for the Liberal candidate in my riding, the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate, there’s not a question in my mind as to who I’ll vote for.”

A question placed by Rebel Media to Justin Trudeau following the French debate.

Of course, outstanding New Democratic Party candidates like multi-term Vancouver-Kingsway MP, Don Davies; Jenny Kwan in Vancouver East; Laurel Collins in Victoria; Rachel Blaney in North Island-Powell River; Peter Julian in New Westminster and Charlie Angus in Timmins-James Bay; whose numbers should be added to by the election of Jim Hanson in Burnaby-North Seymour, Avi Lewis in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, and Anjali Appadurai in Vancouver-Granville — and the “re-election” of Ruth Ellan Brosseau in Berthier—Maskinongé, among a host of other NDP candidates / MPs, are must votes.

Meanwhile, over in Erin O’Toole’s Conservative camp, after a textbook, policy-driven start to the Tory campaign, the multiple flip flops over the past week — on gun control, abortion, vaccine passports, health care funding, and deficit spending — has cost the party support among its base, as support for Maxime Bernier’s racist, anti-vaxxer, libertarian People’s Party of Canada has risen to 11% in Ontario, and 9% — and much better in some regions — across the rest of Canada.

“John Ibbitson is right,” complained former Stephen Harper campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, on the Curse of Politics podcast. “Erin O’Toole really is the most liberal leader the Conservative Party has ever had — and party members don’t like it, which is why you see members leaving the party to join Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada. Erin thinks there’s no conservative alternative to the party he leads — clearly he’s been proven wrong with the rise of the PPC.”

“And I think pollsters are radically under counting support for the PPC, particularly in the rural regions of Canada. Chances are, I believe, that PPC support is in the 15% range. In many ways, the current circumstance reminds me of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign — when pollsters utterly failed to capture the extent of the discontent  among the American electorate. People may have been reluctant to voice their support for Trump when they received a call from a polling firm — but come Election Day, Donald Trump was swept into office.”

One week ago, support for Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party sat at a firm 37% — today, it’s at 32.9% and declining precipitously with each passing day.

Vancouver NDP MP Don Davies attended a Rally for Public Housing, adjacent to the site of the proposed Little Housing mixed housing development site that, in 2008, was slated to make 234 units of affordable social housing available to the community.

Support for Annamie Paul’s Green Party can barely be detected in the polls, while support for Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois — following last week’s and last evening’s French debate — has all but obliterated Bloc support in the province, the party now sitting at single digit support, as voters desert the Bloc for Trudeau.

Ten days out from Election Day, with support for the Liberal Party waxing higher, the prospect now exists that Justin Trudeau will form the next government — albeit with a probable reduced minority, requiring the support and co-operation of Jagmeet Singh and the New Democratic Party of Canada in order to govern.

As to the future of the leaders of the five major political parties: Annamie Paul will be gone before the end of the year — to be replaced by Avi Lewis, or so the rumour goes, although — Jagmeet Singh will likely be shown the door in the next year, and Mr. Lewis could very well emerge as the next leader of the federal New Democrats.

Justin Trudeau will be gone sometime in 2023, if not sooner (if he loses this election, he’ll announce his resignation as Liberal Party leader late on Election night). Erin O’Toole’s days as Tory leader — even if he increases the Conservative Party seat count, but loses the election — will also be gone fairly soon, probably around the time Justin Trudeau leaves. Only Maxime Bernier will remain — to split the Conservative vote (yeah!) —  to cause great despair to all persons of conscience.

Decision 2021 | Day 25 | The 21st Century Belongs to the Conservatives?

Decision Canada 2021, Politics, , , , ,

For 9 long years, Canadian politics underwent a tectonic shift that for the longest period of time since Confederation seemingly buried the liberal elites of yesteryear, during the era of Stephen Harper’s reign as Canada’s Prime Minister.

The thesis propounded by conservative Globe and Mail columnist, John Ibbitson, and pollster Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs Research, is that  Canada is undergoing a fundamental shift (the eponymous “Big Shift”) that in the 21st century will result in a reformation of Canadian politics, governance, economy and values. The authors argue in their book that the Conservative Party of Canada is the political force best poised to take advantage of this changing landscape, and over the years and in the coming decades will be transformed into what was once the purview of the Liberal Party: the natural governing party of Canada.

Bricker and Ibbitson argue that one of the world’s most consensual countries is becoming polarized, exhibiting stark differences between East and West, cities and suburbs, Canadian born citizens and immigrants. The “winners” — in both politics and business — will be those who can capitalize on these momentous changes.

For almost its entire history, Canada has been run by the political, media and business elites of Toronto, Ottawa and Montréal. For nine long, arduous years, though, these groups lost their power — without most of them realizing their power was on the wane. The Laurentian Consensus, the term John Ibbitson has coined for the dusty liberal elite, had been replaced by a new and powerful coalition based in the West and supported by immigrant voters in Ontario. How did this happen?

So far in the 21st century, though, the Conservatives have governed for only 9 of 21 years. Despite their dispiriting election losses in the 2015 and 2019 federal elections, the Conservative Party has nonetheless continued to remain strong in northern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, in the rural regions of Ontario, and has even shown strength in Québec — but not in the Maritimes.

In his review in The Globe and Mail of John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker’s book, The Big Shift, journalist and academic Christopher Dornan writes …

“The Big Shift, as its title suggests, is one of those books that purports to divine a single, telling fact to explain Canada. If that fact echoes Jacques Parizeau’s infamous 1995 comment about “money and the ethnic vote,” it is not, as Bricker and Ibbitson advance it, a form of bigotry, but a species of determinism: The political values, and therefore voting tendencies, of new arrivals and first-generation Canadians are contingent on their race and region of origin.

Further, this “Big Shift in power to the West and to suburban immigrants” is not only permanent but “will make Canada inexorably a more conservative place.” Resistance is futile. Bad news for progressives, whether they manage to unite or not. They’re on the wrong side of a fundamental and irreversible demographic shift.”

While both of the book’s authors take great pains to stress that they’ve merely set out to document a “seismic shift” in the demographics of Canada, and what it portends for the political, social and economic future of our nation, for most who would read the book and interpret its internal thesis, from the book’s outset through til its end, it would be difficult to ignore the sense of triumphalism evident throughout Ibbitson and Bricker’s polemical treatise, as if somehow the shift to the “new” — and increasingly right wing — Conservative Party is inalterably inevitable.

“It’s one thing for the Conservative Party to chafe and protest  when in opposition,” writes Dornan. “But, if Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s style of government — which might best be described as “undertaken in a spirit of spite” — offers an example of what Canadians might expect from a Conservative government, it is entirely likely that a goodly number of our fellow citizens would find this approach to governance to be untenable, particularly in a country populated by families who came here to escape entrenched antagonisms. If that ever changes, then the Canada we all love — left and right, newcomer or born-and-bred — will be truly at risk.”

When Canadians go to the advance polls to cast a ballot this week, or to their polling station on Election Day, Monday, September 20th, Canadians must vote not just for the Prime Minister and the government of their choice, but for the future of Canada — our most cherished home — and the uniquely Canadian values of fairness, respect, compassion, equality, inclusion, diversity, safety, peace, and for being there for one another, as collectively we seek to create a more sustainably just Canada for everyone. As in every election, there is in 2021 a great deal on the line.