Film Festival Season Arrives Much to the Delight of Cinephiles

September film festivals, from Venice, Telluride and Toronto, to Vancouver and New York

The most glorious time of year for cinéastes across the globe occurs in the month of September, as five prestigious film festivals programme films that in the months to come will take the world by storm, set the stage for Oscar season, and for true diehard festival attendees — in evanescent moments of cinematic splendour — allow the screening of hundreds of films spanning the globe in origin, to be seen only within the rarified humanist atmosphere of the film festival, thereafter to vanish forevermore. Sigh.
Only 48 short hours ago, the 72nd annual Venice Film Festival kicked off with the out of competition world première screening of Baltasar Kormakur’s emotionally riveting mountain climbing thriller, Everest, providing bursts of anxiety and cliff-hanging 3D drama in the star-studded Palazzo del Cinema on the Lido. Fortunate for Vancouver’s anticipatory hometown cinephile crowd, a goodly number of the lauded Biennale di Venezia films will find their way to our calming and beatific shores, as the always glorious and transformative 34th annual Vancouver International Film Festival sets about to screen many of the Venice Film Festival award-winners, our very own illustrious Festival-by-sea commencing at 10am, Thursday, Sept. 24th, completing its run late, late on Friday, October 9th.

Earlier this week, the fine folks at the Vancouver International Film Festival announced that their Opening Gala film will be the smash Sundance hit, Brooklyn. One of this autumn’s most anticipated film releases, and a certain Best Picture Oscar nominee, with Saorise Ronan a lock for a Best Actress Oscar nod, in his The Playlist review of Brooklyn, Rodrigo Perez wrote …

Home is where the heart is, and love, longing, and grieving for the departed fragments of our lives we can never return to are lovingly realized in John Crowley’s exquisitely crafted and beautiful Brooklyn. Based on the novel by Irish author Colm Tóibín, and delicately adapted by Nick Hornby, Brooklyn tells the story of Eilis Lacey (Saoirse Ronan), an Irish immigrant who travels to America in the early 1950s for a more prosperous life.

With empathetic specificity, Brooklyn nails the emotional complexity of homesickness beyond mere melancholic nostalgia. It’s a despair for the absence of friends, family, and comforting familiarities that define our lives, but as well a lovesick longing for a past that no longer exists; a tearful goodbye for a moment in time now awash in memory. With a beautiful tenderness that never rings false, Crowley’s graceful film fills in every emotional contour with warmth and sensitivity.

A heartbreaking and poignant story about choices, country, commitments, sacrifice, and love, Brooklyn is a superb, luminous, and bittersweet portrayal of who we are, where we’ve come from, where we’re going, and the places we call home.

Brooklyn makes its Vancouver début at the Centre for the Performing Arts, at 7pm on Thursday, September 24th (the Festival has programmed two additional screenings of this must-see VIFF 2015 première).
Meanwhile, Curtis Woloschuk, Jack Vermee and the editorial members of VIFF’s publication team released this year’s glossy 108-page programming guide to the 2015 Festival, currently available at the Vancity Theatre, but soon to be available at libraries across Metro Vancouver, as well as bookstores, coffee shops, video stores and most any place that people gather. An impressive humanist document, The Complete Guide makes for a compelling read, as it sets about to provides a road map to the singularly most engaging arts event on the autumn calendar.

On Thursday, the Telluride Film Festival programming staff released the up until then secret list of future Oscar nominees set to screen in the southwestern mountainous climes of Miguel County, Colorado. The incomparable list of films that attendees will screen over the four-day Labour Day weekend, kicking off today, represent the very best in cinema that will be released in 2015 (note should be made that every Best Picture Oscar winner over the past 10 years made its début at Telluride).
Several of the films making their début at Telluride are also scheduled to screen at our very own VIFF, including certain Oscar contender, Son of Saul (which took Cannes by storm); Berlin Film Festival award-winner, 45 Years; Jafar Panahi’s Taxi; Lenny Abrahamson’s much-anticipated Room; and, Avishai Sivan’s shocking Festival winner, Tikkun, among many other prestigious award-winning international films of cinematic excellence.
Perhaps the most hotly anticipated film making it’s international début at Telluride is Sarah Gavron’s Suffragette, the film’s star — the luminous Carey Mulligan — a certain Best Actress Oscar contender. Suffragette arrives in Vancouver in late October.

Each year for the past 30 years and more, media from across the globe travel to the centre of the universe, as a calvacade of A-list Hollywood stars converge on Canada’s largest metropolitan centre for the Toronto Film Festival, where the movie industry is afforded the opportunity to present cinema’s (read: Hollywood’s) very best, where the prestige films on offer at TIFF will garner critical and, some months down the road, Oscar attention, where films reviewed in the hothouse atmosphere of Toronto to rapturous acclaim capture the public’s imagination (how could they not?), pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Hollywood’s already overladen coffers, gifting Hollywood’s woebegotten producers with the Oscar hardware that says, “You done good Hollywood. We forgive you for the plethora of cynical CGI-infected comic book movies. Thank you. You’ve done yourself proud.”

53rd annual New York Film Festival

Last but certainly not least, there’s the heavily juried New York Film Festival, the 53rd version of which commences September 25th, the day after our very own festival by the sea, la-la-land’s always wonderful Vancouver International Film Festival, gets underway.
Can’t travel to New York for NYFF53? Not to worry. Although it drives VIFF print traffic mavens Kathy Evans and Selina Crammond absolutely bonkers, a goodly number of NYFF53’s finest also screen in Vancouver (Kathy and Selina on the phone with New York hourly to ensure the one and only “print” of the film makes it to Vancouver following the New York screening).
In 2015, New York and Vancouver share Miguel Gomes’s monumental yet light-footed magnum opus, Arabian Nights, Volumes 1, 2 & 3; Cannes Best Director winner Hou Hsiao-hsien’s, The Assassin; Brooklyn, Saoirse Ronan’s vibrantly alive emigré epic; Cemetery of Splendour, the wondrous new film by Palme d’Or winner Apichatpong Weerasethakul; Experimenter, Michael Almreyda’s portrait of Stanley Milgram (Peter Sarsgaard), the social scientist whose 1961 “obedience study” reflected back on the Holocaust and anticipated Abu Ghraib.
The Forbidden Room, Guy Maddin’s insane and phantasmagorical magnum opus; In the Shadow of Women, the exquisite new film by the great Philippe Garrel, who takes a close look at infidelity, and the divergent ways in which it’s experienced and understood by men and women; The Lobster, absurdist Greek director Yorgos Lanthimos’ acclaimed Cannes Jury Prize winner; and The Measure of a Man, Stéphane Brizé’s powerful and troubling new film, which earned Vincent Lindon the Best Actor prize at Cannes.
Mountains May Depart, Jia Zhangke’s newest epic, spanning three decades in the lives of the film’s increasingly estranged characters, from the dawn of China’s capitalist explosion to the near future; My Golden Days, Arnaud Desplechin’s triptych exploration of first love; Right Now, Wrong Then, Hong Sangsoo’s wry comedy of manners, laced with heavy drinking & regret; and, The Treasure, Romanian director Corneliu Porumboiu’s magical modern-day fable, which Variety called, “a deadpan gem.”
Count ’em. Fifteen of the New York Film Festival’s 30 heavily juried films will screen in Vancouver, virtually simultaneously with the Big Apple.

Film festivals offer a window on our world, and an intimate exploration of the lives of folks just like us, who reside in every far flung country across our globe. The Vancouver Film Festival: 16 days, 70 countries, 355 films.

2015 Vancouver International Film Festival

Tickets (and passes) are on sale now for the 34th annual Vancouver International Film Festival at the Vancity Theatre, and soon at these listed locations. When I dropped by the Vancity on Thursday to pick up my hot-off-the-press copy of VIFF’s wonderfully gorgeous and expansive The Complete Guide (it’s free folks — pick up a copy, and schedule a dozen films, or three) ticket sales were brisk. A heartening sight to see, indeed.
Today’s Festival column constitutes the first of many such columns that will focus on the Vancouver International Film Festival. Commencing September 24th, VanRamblings will take a 17-day break from coverage of the federal election, VIFF winning out over Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau. Last year, VanRamblings covered Vancouver’s municipal election, and in consequence our usual VIFF coverage suffered — not this year!

NDP Up (Except in Vancouver Centre), Bill Blair Going Down

The Election Prediction Project The Election Prediction Project tracks ridings across Canada in the 2015 federal election

For those closely following the various perambulations of the 2015 Canadian federal election, there are any number of “tools” that, daily, sate the need to remain informed, and just as is the case with tracking the Oscar race (yes, VanRamblings does that, as well — as we intend to write on this topic ad nauseum in the days, weeks and months to come … beginning tomorrow, actually), there is little more satisfying an idiosyncratically subjective political “tool” than Milton Chan’s totally unscientific, yet oft times surprisingly accurate, Election Prediction Project.


The Election Prediction Project, Aug. 28th federal seat predictions


As can be seen in the graphic to the left, as of August 28th Chan believes that the Conservatives have 96 seats across Canada locked up, the NDP trailing with 85 seats, the Liberals a certainty to win 50 seats in the next Parliament, with one lone seat for beleaguered — but wildly popular and populist, and phenomenally articulate and incredibly sympathetic and credible political figure — Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, and 105 seats in the 338-seat 43rd Parliament simply too close to call fifty-one days out from election day, October 19th.
What is Chan’s methodology? Answer: subjective input from constituents in each of the 338 federal ridings. Let’s take the riding of Vancouver Centre, where NDP candidate Constance Barnes is battling it out with Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry, Conservative candidate Elaine Allen (who?), and 2013 COPE Council candidate / Green Party rep, Lisa Barrett. Chan says Fry is a lock to retain her seat; all one has to do is read the following comment to know why VanCentre is a lock for Hedy Fry …

“The Liberals will win here by default not because they are strong in any part of the riding but rather both the NDP and Conservatives have sections which are hostile to them. The Tories will do well in Yaletown and Coal Harbour where you have a lot of wealthy condo owners but get clobbered in the West End which has a large gay community. By contrast the NDP will do well in the West End but get clobbered in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. The Liberals will win by simply being competitive in all sections of riding.”

A compelling narrative that. Unless Ms. Barnes runs a hyperlocal “issues-based” campaign (as David Eby did in the 2013 British Columbia election), gets out of the NDP message box, and challenges Ms. Fry to address the critical issue of affordable housing (the NDP have a plan for Co-operatives, the Liberals … nada on the subject), Hedy Fry probably has this riding locked up as a sure “we’ve got the bucks, we’ve had our office open for weeks, we’ve got a first-rate campaign team, and we’re way better funded than you granola-eating NDP types” Liberal party win. Meanwhile, Grenier has Barnes dropping to 22.6% support, a loss of 7 points in the last week.

Eric Grenier's 2015 election polling results, September 2, 2015, seat projectionEric Grenier’s CBC Polltracker 2015 federal election seat projection, September 2, 2015

In yesterday’s coverage of Decision Canada 2015, VanRamblings wrote that Eric Grenier — creator of political polling amalgamation site threehundredeight.com, and in the 2015 federal election the official CBC pollster — was predicting 126 seats nationally for the Conservatives, 120 seats for the NDP, 91 seats for the Liberals, and 1 Green seat for Elizabeth May. Here’s Grenier on CBC Polltracker; what a difference a day makes. All of a sudden, the federal New Democrats are slated to take 127 seats, the Conservatives slide precipitously down to 116, the Liberals are on the rise with 94 seats, while Elizabeth May holds on to her lone Green Party seat.

Bill Blair, Scarborough Southwest Liberal Party candidateCampaign on the wane: Bill Blair, star Liberal Party candidate/ex-Toronto Police Chief

A Liberal Party apparatchik was telling VanRamblings last week that star candidates recruited by the party are not doing close to as well as expected. Case in point: former Toronto Police Chief / taker down of Toronto Mayor Rob “Buffoon” Ford continues to drop in the polls, currently at 38.5% against NDP incumbent Dan Harris (35.4%). My informant tells me that Scarborough West is far from a lock for Blair, as the NDP continue to hammer the ex-police chief on his role in the abrogation of the civil rights of peaceful G20 protesters, and the police violence that followed.
In an August 27th Globe and Mail editorial, Bill Blair is held to account …

“Mr. Blair has never adequately accounted for the misbehaviours of his force during the G20. Ontario Ombudsman André Marin called it “the most massive compromise of civil liberties in Canadian history.” It was a very bad day for the Toronto Police Service. There was a failure of leadership at the highest level. Whether he lost control of his officers or failed to properly oversee their poor decisions, Mr. Blair needs to revisit the lost weekend of 2010 and explain his force’s performance. An election campaign is as good a place as any to demand answers.”

The steady drumbeat that demands Bill Blair be held to account means nothing but harm to his nascent candidacy, and the prospects for a win for this much sought after Liberal party candidate. Scarborough Southwest emerges, then, as a riding to keep an eye on through until election night.

Canada’s 42nd National Election: Change Is On Voters’ Minds

Canada's 42nd federal election, seat projection, September 1, 2015

Forty-eight days out from Canada’s 42nd national election, on Monday, October 19th, and change in the Canadian politic seems to be in the air.
In today’s (overlong — some things never change) post, VanRamblings will focus on Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com projections for all 338 federal ridings. Grenier is Canada’s Nate Silver (who accurately predicted Barack Obama’s wins in 2008/2012, as well as Congressional and Senate seats, and the gubernatorial races, right down to a tenth of a per cent).
Note should be made that during the course of the 2015 election campaign, Eric Grenier has signed on as CBC’s official pollster, and that much of his work is poured into the CBC Polltracker. Me, I’ll miss the graphic at the top of threehundredeight.com (see the Alberta graphic below for an idea of what I mean). Still and all, the threehundredeight.com projections for the 338 federal ridings provide a service not offered elsewhere, allowing voters and those political folks among us (who live for this stuff) to track dynamic riding-by-riding poll results throughout the 88-day (!) election period.
In the recent Alberta election, Grenier predicted a 55-seat win for Rachel Notley’s NDP (the NDP won 54 seats, which could turn to 55 should the NDP take Jim Prentice’s vacated Calgary-Foothills seat, as appears likely, according to the polls). Meanwhile, all of Alberta’s political pundits were calling for a Progressive Conservative win, with 26 seats going to the NDP.

2015 Alberta election project

Grenier was not as accurate in predicting British Columbia’s 2013 provincial election. Grenier published his projections based on polls conducted by Leger, Insights West, Ipsos-Reid, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos, Forum Research and Abacus, among others — none of which were weighting their polls. Pollsters now weight their poll results statistically by age, region and other variables (including voter intention to actually vote) to ensure the sample reflects the population according to the latest census data.
Voter turnout for the May 2nd, 2011 Canadian federal election was 61.1%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the all-time low of 58.8% for 2008. Turnout steadily increased with age from 38.8% for ages 18-24 to 75.1% for ages 65-74, declining to 60.3% for those 75 and older. Polling among the age group 18 to 44 generally shows a propensity for overwhelming support for the NDP - but voter turnout for this (age) demographic group is relatively low, when compared to the population as a whole. Pollsters now weight their poll results, taking into account that fewer than four in ten “younger voters” will actually arrive at the polls on voting day to cast their ballot — weighted polling means much more accurate polling results.

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Eric Grenier's 2015 election polling results, Surrey and Vancouver308 projections for Surrey/Vancouver, support by party + plus percentage win projection

Now it’s time to get down to brass tacks, as my mother used to say.
According to Grenier’s poll projections for British Columbia, the NDP are on track to win 19 of the 42 seats up for grabs in our province, with Stephen Harper’s Conservative party in second place with 15 seats, the Liberals projected to win 6 seats, and Elizabeth May picking up her lone Green Party seat, in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Grenier’s predicting 28 Conservative seats in Alberta, 3 seats for the NDP (Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Strathcona and and Lethbridge absolute locks), and two seats for the Liberals (Calgary Skyview, and Edmonton Centre, although the Libs are in a real fight with the NDP for the seat).
As to the remaining provinces and territories, Grenier’s projecting …
Saskatchewan: 19, Conservatives; 5, NDP; 1, Liberals
Manitoba: 7, Conservatives; 4, Liberals; 3, NDP
Ontario: 50, Conservatives; 41, Liberals; 29, NDP
Québec: 60, NDP; 14, Liberals; 4, Conservatives
New Brunswick: 5, Liberals; 3, Conservatives; 2, NDP
Nova Scotia: 7, Liberals; 4, NDP; Conservatives, 0
PEI: 4, Liberals; NPD and Conservatives shut out
Newfoundland/Labrador: 5 Liberals; 2, NDP; Conservatives, 0
Northwest Territories: 2, Liberals; 1, NDP; Conservatives, 0
In his threehundredeight.com polltracker, Grenier has the Conservatives taking 126 seats nationally, the NDP winning 120 seats, with 91 seats for the Liberals, and one lone Green seat for Elizabeth May.
Last week, a Forum Research poll conducted for the Toronto Star predicted an NDP parliamentary majority of 174 seats …

“The Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star projects the NDP with enough support to win 174 seats in the Oct. 19 election. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals now sit in second place with 30 per cent support, while Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are losing support and have the backing of just 23 per cent of the 1,440 Canadians surveyed.”

That same day in a front page story, the Globe and Mail polltracker predicted more seats for the Conservatives in the next Parliament than for the Liberals and NDP, despite the NDP lead in the polls.
In the 2015 federal election, there seem to be lies, damn lies and polls. We’ll all have a better idea as to where Canada is headed closer to election day, 10 days out — that’s when the polling really starts to count. During the course of the recent Alberta election, on the Monday before election day, the NDP looked to pick up 18 of 19 seats in Edmonton, and one of 25 in Calgary; by Friday, the day before the election, polls showed the NDP winning all 19 seats in Edmonton, 15 seats in Calgary, and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer, as well as a smattering of seats across every region of the province, for an overwhelming legislative majority.
With 68&#37 of Canadians saying it’s time for change, with as many as 43&#37 of those who voted Tory in 2011 saying they won’t do so again in 2015, the Tories would seem to have an uphill battle to win an unprecedented fourth parliamentary government — but, clearly, it could happen.

Escape to the Vancouver International Film Festival, Sept. 24-Oct. 9

VanRamblings will cover the election through until election day, October 19th, along with coverage of the upcoming 34th annual Vancouver International Film Festival (intensifying during VIFF, Sept. 24-Oct. 9).