Stephen Harper and the Tories are taking one hit after another in Campaign 2015

The prayers of the 70% of Canadians who wish to see the back end of the most mean-spirited government in Canadian history are, daily, being answered as Stephen Harper’s nasty and inept Conservative party lurches from one misstep, blunder and scandal to another, offering solace to all those in Canada with a beating heart, and a dedication to social justice.
Over the course of the 78-day election campaign — the longest campaign for government in modern Canadian history — from campaign’s outset on August 2nd, until now, Stephen Harper and his federal Conservative party have found themselves, day after day, “knocked off message”. Defeat is in the cards for the Tories as, according to the polls, their popularity continues to plummet, from a high of 39% in the 2011 federal election to, at present, 24% -26%, depending on the poll (Forum Research has the Tories at 24%, Nanos registers the Tories at 26%, a drop of five points).

During the 2015 election, Stephen Harper & the Conservatives are slip slidin’ to oblivion

For political pundits, as well as for many Canadians across our land, the months leading up to Canada’s 42nd national election are best remembered as a series of Conservative-created “events”, mainly focusing on …

1. The never-ending roll out of ads — all paid for at Canadian taxpayer expense, just shy of $1 billion expended on those ads by the Tories, each ad extolling the virtues of various programmes brought in by the Tory government, lauding as well the halycon days that would follow the re-election of Stephen Harper’s hide-in-plain sight Conservative government, where the Tories set about to advertise programmes that hadn’t even passed Parliament prior to the calling of the election;

2. Conservative party largesse — once again, paid out of the pockets of Canadian taxpayers — as Conservative Ministers of the Crown fanned out across the country (surprise, surprise, all paid for by Canadians) promising billions of dollars in expenditure on infrastructure programmes, in every region of our nation — mind you, spending destined only for federal ridings held by the Tories, or ridings where the Stephen Harper Conservatives felt they had a fighting chance at picking up a seat that might propel them back into government.

Stephen Harper’s plan for permanent hegemony on the Canadian political scene seemed so on track in the early halcyon days of 2015, until the Prime Minister decided to call the election, fifty-three days earlier than usual. And, boy oh boy, did the wheels then start to come off the Tory party bus.

Mike Duffy on trial, Nigel Wright testifies, Stephen Harper knew everything all along

The first weeks of Campaign 2015, Stephen Harper had a near impossible time getting his message out as the Ottawa-based Mike Duffy trial consumed media and public attention, none of the revelations emerging from the trial reflecting favourably upon Stephen Harper, as 75% of Canadians told pollsters they thought the Prime Minister was lying about what he knew, when he knew it, and whether or not the Prime Minister’s Office was involved in a cover-up. Can you say the word, “scandal”?

Next it was the drip, drip, drip of a Canadian economy on the wane, Canada the only G7 country experiencing a recession, with 8 of 15 sectors of the economy experiencing a significant downturn, the dollar plummeting to levels not seen in a generation, the Canadian unemployment rate up, and despite Stephen Harper’s imprecations to the contrary, a multi-billion dollar deficit on the horizon (a deficit that would only be exacerbated by the billions in expenditures promised by the Tories in the lead up to the election) — no matter who forms government post election day, Oct. 19th.

And just as Stephen Harper was attempting a campaign recovery from the hourly and myriad reports of a Canadian economy in dire straits, and a Mike Duffy Senate scandal that said, “That Stephen Harper government, they’re a secretive bunch, and y’know what, they seem like a pretty darn corrupt bunch, too”, three-year-old Alan Kurdi’s lifeless body washed up off the shores of Turkey, the nephew of Coquitlam-resident and Syrian emigré, Tima Kurdi — Stephen Harper’s response to the tragedy just as inhumane as you’d expect from him, every word out of his mouth spin, every word meant to engender fear of “the other”, making Canada and Canadians appear as mean as he and his government have proven to be since 2006.

Finally, on Monday, the Peegate / UrineTrouble / Pleasuring Himself on YouTube dual scandal of two high-profile Toronto Tory candidates, Jerry Bance caught on camera in the kitchen peeing into the coffee cup of a future constituent, Tim Dutaud posting videos of his harassing women, not to mention demeaning the developmentally disabled.
The wheels are off the Conservative campaign bus, the Tories in freefall.

Some 70% of Canadians (that percentage rising with each passing day) saying they’ll vote anybody but Harper and the Conservatives in 2015, with 43% of British Columbians who voted Tory in 2011 saying they’ll park their vote anywhere else in 2015, with one Tory “scandal” after another emerging each new day of Campaign 2015, in 41 short days from now we can all finally say good riddance to the meanest, most anti-Canadian people government in Canada’s relatively short 154-year history. Hallelujah!

The Election Prediction Project tracks ridings across Canada in the 2015 federal election

For those closely following the various perambulations of the 2015 Canadian federal election, there are any number of “tools” that, daily, sate the need to remain informed, and just as is the case with tracking the Oscar race (yes, VanRamblings does that, as well — as we intend to write on this topic ad nauseum in the days, weeks and months to come … beginning tomorrow, actually), there is little more satisfying an idiosyncratically subjective political “tool” than Milton Chan’s totally unscientific, yet oft times surprisingly accurate, Election Prediction Project.

As can be seen in the graphic to the left, as of August 28th Chan believes that the Conservatives have 96 seats across Canada locked up, the NDP trailing with 85 seats, the Liberals a certainty to win 50 seats in the next Parliament, with one lone seat for beleaguered — but wildly popular and populist, and phenomenally articulate and incredibly sympathetic and credible political figure — Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, and 105 seats in the 338-seat 43rd Parliament simply too close to call fifty-one days out from election day, October 19th.
What is Chan’s methodology? Answer: subjective input from constituents in each of the 338 federal ridings. Let’s take the riding of Vancouver Centre, where NDP candidate Constance Barnes is battling it out with Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry, Conservative candidate Elaine Allen (who?), and 2013 COPE Council candidate / Green Party rep, Lisa Barrett. Chan says Fry is a lock to retain her seat; all one has to do is read the following comment to know why VanCentre is a lock for Hedy Fry …

“The Liberals will win here by default not because they are strong in any part of the riding but rather both the NDP and Conservatives have sections which are hostile to them. The Tories will do well in Yaletown and Coal Harbour where you have a lot of wealthy condo owners but get clobbered in the West End which has a large gay community. By contrast the NDP will do well in the West End but get clobbered in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. The Liberals will win by simply being competitive in all sections of riding.”

A compelling narrative that. Unless Ms. Barnes runs a hyperlocal “issues-based” campaign (as David Eby did in the 2013 British Columbia election), gets out of the NDP message box, and challenges Ms. Fry to address the critical issue of affordable housing (the NDP have a plan for Co-operatives, the Liberals … nada on the subject), Hedy Fry probably has this riding locked up as a sure “we’ve got the bucks, we’ve had our office open for weeks, we’ve got a first-rate campaign team, and we’re way better funded than you granola-eating NDP types” Liberal party win. Meanwhile, Grenier has Barnes dropping to 22.6% support, a loss of 7 points in the last week.

Eric Grenier’s CBC Polltracker 2015 federal election seat projection, September 2, 2015

In yesterday’s coverage of Decision Canada 2015, VanRamblings wrote that Eric Grenier — creator of political polling amalgamation site threehundredeight.com, and in the 2015 federal election the official CBC pollster — was predicting 126 seats nationally for the Conservatives, 120 seats for the NDP, 91 seats for the Liberals, and 1 Green seat for Elizabeth May. Here’s Grenier on CBC Polltracker; what a difference a day makes. All of a sudden, the federal New Democrats are slated to take 127 seats, the Conservatives slide precipitously down to 116, the Liberals are on the rise with 94 seats, while Elizabeth May holds on to her lone Green Party seat.

Campaign on the wane: Bill Blair, star Liberal Party candidate/ex-Toronto Police Chief

A Liberal Party apparatchik was telling VanRamblings last week that star candidates recruited by the party are not doing close to as well as expected. Case in point: former Toronto Police Chief / taker down of Toronto Mayor Rob “Buffoon” Ford continues to drop in the polls, currently at 38.5% against NDP incumbent Dan Harris (35.4%). My informant tells me that Scarborough West is far from a lock for Blair, as the NDP continue to hammer the ex-police chief on his role in the abrogation of the civil rights of peaceful G20 protesters, and the police violence that followed.
In an August 27th Globe and Mail editorial, Bill Blair is held to account …

“Mr. Blair has never adequately accounted for the misbehaviours of his force during the G20. Ontario Ombudsman André Marin called it “the most massive compromise of civil liberties in Canadian history.” It was a very bad day for the Toronto Police Service. There was a failure of leadership at the highest level. Whether he lost control of his officers or failed to properly oversee their poor decisions, Mr. Blair needs to revisit the lost weekend of 2010 and explain his force’s performance. An election campaign is as good a place as any to demand answers.”

The steady drumbeat that demands Bill Blair be held to account means nothing but harm to his nascent candidacy, and the prospects for a win for this much sought after Liberal party candidate. Scarborough Southwest emerges, then, as a riding to keep an eye on through until election night.

Forty-eight days out from Canada’s 42nd national election, on Monday, October 19th, and change in the Canadian politic seems to be in the air.
In today’s (overlong — some things never change) post, VanRamblings will focus on Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com projections for all 338 federal ridings. Grenier is Canada’s Nate Silver (who accurately predicted Barack Obama’s wins in 2008/2012, as well as Congressional and Senate seats, and the gubernatorial races, right down to a tenth of a per cent).
Note should be made that during the course of the 2015 election campaign, Eric Grenier has signed on as CBC’s official pollster, and that much of his work is poured into the CBC Polltracker. Me, I’ll miss the graphic at the top of threehundredeight.com (see the Alberta graphic below for an idea of what I mean). Still and all, the threehundredeight.com projections for the 338 federal ridings provide a service not offered elsewhere, allowing voters and those political folks among us (who live for this stuff) to track dynamic riding-by-riding poll results throughout the 88-day (!) election period.
In the recent Alberta election, Grenier predicted a 55-seat win for Rachel Notley’s NDP (the NDP won 54 seats, which could turn to 55 should the NDP take Jim Prentice’s vacated Calgary-Foothills seat, as appears likely, according to the polls). Meanwhile, all of Alberta’s political pundits were calling for a Progressive Conservative win, with 26 seats going to the NDP.

Grenier was not as accurate in predicting British Columbia’s 2013 provincial election. Grenier published his projections based on polls conducted by Leger, Insights West, Ipsos-Reid, EKOS, Angus Reid, Nanos, Forum Research and Abacus, among others — none of which were weighting their polls. Pollsters now weight their poll results statistically by age, region and other variables (including voter intention to actually vote) to ensure the sample reflects the population according to the latest census data.
Voter turnout for the May 2nd, 2011 Canadian federal election was 61.1%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the all-time low of 58.8% for 2008. Turnout steadily increased with age from 38.8% for ages 18-24 to 75.1% for ages 65-74, declining to 60.3% for those 75 and older. Polling among the age group 18 to 44 generally shows a propensity for overwhelming support for the NDP - but voter turnout for this (age) demographic group is relatively low, when compared to the population as a whole. Pollsters now weight their poll results, taking into account that fewer than four in ten “younger voters” will actually arrive at the polls on voting day to cast their ballot — weighted polling means much more accurate polling results.

308 projections for Surrey/Vancouver, support by party + plus percentage win projection

Now it’s time to get down to brass tacks, as my mother used to say.
According to Grenier’s poll projections for British Columbia, the NDP are on track to win 19 of the 42 seats up for grabs in our province, with Stephen Harper’s Conservative party in second place with 15 seats, the Liberals projected to win 6 seats, and Elizabeth May picking up her lone Green Party seat, in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Grenier’s predicting 28 Conservative seats in Alberta, 3 seats for the NDP (Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Strathcona and and Lethbridge absolute locks), and two seats for the Liberals (Calgary Skyview, and Edmonton Centre, although the Libs are in a real fight with the NDP for the seat).
As to the remaining provinces and territories, Grenier’s projecting …
Saskatchewan: 19, Conservatives; 5, NDP; 1, Liberals
Manitoba: 7, Conservatives; 4, Liberals; 3, NDP
Ontario: 50, Conservatives; 41, Liberals; 29, NDP
Québec: 60, NDP; 14, Liberals; 4, Conservatives
New Brunswick: 5, Liberals; 3, Conservatives; 2, NDP
Nova Scotia: 7, Liberals; 4, NDP; Conservatives, 0
PEI: 4, Liberals; NPD and Conservatives shut out
Newfoundland/Labrador: 5 Liberals; 2, NDP; Conservatives, 0
Northwest Territories: 2, Liberals; 1, NDP; Conservatives, 0
In his threehundredeight.com polltracker, Grenier has the Conservatives taking 126 seats nationally, the NDP winning 120 seats, with 91 seats for the Liberals, and one lone Green seat for Elizabeth May.
Last week, a Forum Research poll conducted for the Toronto Star predicted an NDP parliamentary majority of 174 seats …

“The Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star projects the NDP with enough support to win 174 seats in the Oct. 19 election. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals now sit in second place with 30 per cent support, while Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are losing support and have the backing of just 23 per cent of the 1,440 Canadians surveyed.”

That same day in a front page story, the Globe and Mail polltracker predicted more seats for the Conservatives in the next Parliament than for the Liberals and NDP, despite the NDP lead in the polls.
In the 2015 federal election, there seem to be lies, damn lies and polls. We’ll all have a better idea as to where Canada is headed closer to election day, 10 days out — that’s when the polling really starts to count. During the course of the recent Alberta election, on the Monday before election day, the NDP looked to pick up 18 of 19 seats in Edmonton, and one of 25 in Calgary; by Friday, the day before the election, polls showed the NDP winning all 19 seats in Edmonton, 15 seats in Calgary, and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer, as well as a smattering of seats across every region of the province, for an overwhelming legislative majority.
With 68&#37 of Canadians saying it’s time for change, with as many as 43&#37 of those who voted Tory in 2011 saying they won’t do so again in 2015, the Tories would seem to have an uphill battle to win an unprecedented fourth parliamentary government — but, clearly, it could happen.

VanRamblings will cover the election through until election day, October 19th, along with coverage of the upcoming 34th annual Vancouver International Film Festival (intensifying during VIFF, Sept. 24-Oct. 9).