Following last night’s British Columbia Leaders’ Debate — where little of consequence occurred — John Horgan and the B.C. New Democratic Party remain on track to form our province’s next, majority government.
On points I'll give it to @SoniaFurstenau . On the big picture, @jjhorgan wins because Andrew Wilkinson couldn't really land a punch. He had to make up enormous ground, and I doubt the needle moved much, if at all. @SoniaFurstenau just may have saved her seat tonight.
B.C. Liberal and B.C. NDP internal polls show B.C. Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau and her colleague, Adam Olsen, running a distant third in their respective Vancouver Island ridings. Perhaps Global BC legislative reporter Keith Baldrey is right when he states that, arising from her heartfelt performance in the debate, Ms. Furstenau “just may have saved her seat”.
We won’t likely know whether Ms. Furstenau will be returned to the Legislature until the last mail-in ballot is counted, most probably on Tuesday, November 10th. Certainly, Ms. Furstenau did no damage to the Green cause in British Columbia, reason enough for Green celebration.
As for B.C. Liberal Party leader, Andrew Wilkinson, his calm and not-at-all hesitant presentation did him no harm, but as Mr. Baldrey points out, he “couldn’t really land a punch”, so for Mr. Wilkinson, the debate result was at best a draw, neither good nor bad, but adequate for the task at hand.
Unfortunate for Andrew Wilkinson, though, throughout the first three weeks of the campaign, the B.C. NDP have successfully been able to define the B.C. Liberal Party leader as “working for his (rich) friends”, more prone to cutting taxes for the yacht class than implementing any government policy designed to serve the interests of working people across our province.
Tonight wasn't bad for Andrew Wilkinson.
But it wasn't great either, and in an election where the NDP are up big in the polls with 11 days to go, that's not enough. https://t.co/w3sw5HGD7u
And no matter how many times the B.C. Liberal leader “mentioned” that he was a doctor, at no point was Mr. Wilkinson able to assuage voter concerns that he was anything other than a compliant tool for the billionaire class.
So, where does that leave us 10 days out from election day, October 24th? Answer: with the very real prospect of a majority B.C. NDP government.
Although the polls may tighten a bit before election day, overall one has to believe that the people of B.C. are, overall, satisfied with the performance of the John Horgan-led B.C. New Democratic Party government, since they formed power in July 2017, and aren’t about to change horses in mid-stream. Health care and the COVID-19 pandemic remain the top-of-mind concerns for most British Columbians — on that front, Adrian Dix and Dr. Bonnie Henry have performed superbly, with the support of an ebullient Premier John Horgan throughout, as his government sought to steadily increase funding for health care, build Urgent Care Centres across the province, implement policies that would pay long term and assisted living care workers more, when combined with Mr. Horgan’s promise to not only build a new full-service hospital in Cloverdale, but fund the creation a second Lower Mainland medical school at the Simon Fraser University campus in Surrey, only serves to reassure British Columbians right across our province that a John Horgan-led B.C. NDP government has their best interests at heart. And that, folks, is what — mid-pandemic — leads a John Horgan-led British Columbia New Democratic Party to form a comfortable, activist, working class, 2nd term majority government post November 10th.
More tomorrow on VanRamblings, when we’ll publish our very conservative election outcome seat count. We’ll see you then.
The tenor of the 2020 British Columbia election campaign changed on Saturday afternoon when This is VANCOLOUR podcast host Mo Amir published / leaked a damning video in which B.C. Liberal party “leader” Andrew Wilkinson sat mute during a Zoom “roast” of outgoing B.C. Liberal MLA Ralph Sultan that inappropriately and egregiously sought to overtly sexualize a collegial relationship of respect regarding incumbent North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP candidate Bowinn Ma, and octogenarian Sultan.
I’m not going to editorialize this.
Rather, I’d like to hear from women on how they feel about this clip.
Prior to the release of the offensive video, Wilkinson’s woebegone B.C. Liberal campaign — with the party a steady 18 points behind in the polls to John Horgan’s New Democratic Party — the right-of-centre British Columbia provincial political party was already in dire trouble, particularly with women and persons of colour, and with a series of ill-conceived “election promises” — ranging from the poor reception to the party’s PST elimination / reduction proposal, that former B.C. premier Gordon Campbell’s long-serving chief of staff Martyn Brown wrote would bankrupt the province, to Mr. Wilkinson’s ill-conceived plan to private ICBC, a notion that Vancouver Point-Grey MLA David Eby — the minister in charge of ICBC — called “ludicrous”, which Mr. Eby said would eliminate the 20% premium insurance discount for drivers due to come into effect in 2021 with a re-elected New Democratic Party government — the B.C. Liberal party was already fighting an uphill battle to gain any degree of credibility with the electorate in 2021.
Chances are that the tale of the British Columbia 2020 provincial election campaign will be told tonight, beginning at 6:30pm, and televised for 90 minutes across the province on Global BC and CBC TV, and broadcast on CBC radio and CKNW-affiliated radio stations across British Columbia.
No doubt, incumbent North Vancouver-Seymour B.C. Liberal candidate Jane Thornthwaite’s “gaffe”, relating to the unfortunate remarks she made in the video above, will become a defining feature of tonight’s BC election debate.
Leger Poll, Oct. 9, 2020 | “BC NDP maintain a commanding lead” | Vancouver Sun
For many, this evening’s B.C. 2020 Election Debate will be the first time voters in our province will become acquainted with both Andrew Wilkinson, and new, and recently-elected B.C. Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau. As Premier of the province for the past 39 months, John Horgan is already a known quantity. The outcome of the current election hangs in the balance.
Here’s an abridged version of what Vancouver Sun legislative reporter Rob Shaw wrote in a piece published yesterday …
Sonia Furstenau | B.C. Greens
Furstenau enters as the leader with nothing to lose. The Greens are facing the very real prospect of being wiped off the electoral map.
Furstenau is likely to portray the Liberals and NDP as tired old unimaginative parties unwilling to envision a bold, clean, Green economy. As such, she’ll strike out at both leaders on the issues of climate, environmental protection, child care and the Site C dam.
The only risk to her performance is if the NDP and Liberal leaders become so preoccupied with attacking each other, they squeeze her out of the spotlight. Furstenau’s public profile outside of Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver remains very low.
John Horgan | B.C. NDP
Horgan has, by far, the most to lose in Tuesday’s debate.
The NDP debate strategy is mainly about protecting the Horgan brand developed over 3.5 years in office: The jovial, calm, pragmatic leader, who drops dad jokes and Star Trek references. He’s the most popular Premier in Canada, and the NDP has built its entire re-election campaign around him, personally.
Helping Horgan’s cause is the fact that NDP is the only party to release a full platform before Tuesday. He has ample material from which to make his case to voters, including his platform’s marquee promise of up to $1,000 tax-free cash for families to help with COVID-19 recovery.
Andrew Wilkinson | B.C. Liberals
The leader with the most to gain in the debate is Wilkinson. Theoretically, at least. First, he’ll have to field questions over how he has handled several controversies — including a leaked video that shows a candidate making sexist remarks about NDP MLA Bowinn Ma, and at least two candidates in the Fraser Valley who don’t appear to fully support LGBTQ+ rights.
Wilkinson hasn’t been able to build a public profile, (partly) because COVID-19 restrictions ban the type of mass gatherings and large crowds he’d normally be able to use in an election campaign to meet voters.
Like many opposition leaders before him, Wilkinson faces a difficult line to walk in the debate. He has to appear tough in questioning Horgan, but not arrogant. He has to appear to challenge Horgan on his record, but not bully him. And he has to be critical of the NDP’s accomplishments, while simultaneously offering his own hopeful vision for the province’s future.
If Wilkinson spends too much time on criticism, he’ll look like a miserable grump that nobody wants to have a beer with, let alone vote for. Tuesday’s debate is a huge opportunity to highlight his new ideas to the largest audience he will have in the entire election campaign — many of whom already have their mail-in ballots at home and could be marking their preferences right after the debate ends.
Wilkinson knows he only has one shot at running in an election as party leader. Much of his future comes down to his performance in this debate.
VanRamblings will have more to write on Decision 2020 tomorrow and Thursday, and Monday through Thursday of next week.
According to the latest Angus Reid British Columbia election poll published earlier today, as one of the most unique provincial election campaigns in our province’s history runs through its third week, John Horgan’s New Democrats continue to maintain the support of 49% of the electorate, leading Andrew Wilkinson’s B.C. Liberals by 18 points, with BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau’s campaign mired at a mere 14% of voter support.
The overriding concern among British Columbians all across our province is the issue that has been consuming us all the past seven months: COVID-19, and which leader and which political party best represents the interests of our families to find our way through this deadly pandemic which has the world, and our provincial part of the world, in its mortal grip.
COVID-19 will remain the primary issue on voter’s minds throughout the election period leading to election day October 24th, and will remain the core issue that will inform how British Columbians will cast their ballots.
Let us make no mistake, since their first press conference in late February — note should be made that British Columbia was the first jurisdiction on the planet to hold daily COVID-19 news conferences — then Health Minister Adrian Dix and B.C.’s Public Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, gained the confidence of all British Columbians, who have come to rely on their inviolable hearts, their robust intelligence, their indestructible compassion, and their unwavering commitment to fidelity in all of their communication, even when their truth-telling proved challenging, grueling and onerous.
As much as we’re voting for John Horgan and the New Democrats, more we are casting our ballot for hope, for the return of Adrian Dix as our province’s Health Minister, working closely in concert with Dr. Bonnie Henry.
On Sunday afternoon, feminist digital wunderkind Brenda Bailey kicked off her energized, action packed Vancouver-False Creek election campaign with 101 supporters “in attendance” on Zoom, including British Columbia’s New Democratic Party leader John Horgan (he’s the person who’s highlighted — and who remained online with all of us for the entire 45-minute kickoff to Brenda’s campaign!); Vancouver Point Grey’s David Eby, who zoomed in (with his five-year-old son, Ezra) while campaigning on the ‘other side of the Inlet’ with North Vancouver-Lonsdale incumbent candidate Bowinn Ma (who was also present and accounted for); along with recent Minister of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Bruce Ralston, and former Vancouver Mayor and much-loved British Columbia Premier, Mike Harcourt, along with 96 other Brenda Bailey and BC NDP supporters tried and true.
Make no mistake, the BC NDP desperately want this riding, and are pouring resources into taking the seat from vaporous B.C. Liberal, Sam Sullivan.
Along with BC NDP leader John Horgan, the hardest working man, the Superman in British Columbia politics, for the past three plus years David Eby has emerged as the strongest Minister of Justice and Attorney General our province has seen in decades, dedicated to bringing about a fairer and a more just British Columbia for all of our province’s citizens.
Currently running for office for the third time in his west side riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, David can be seen above campaigning for re-election, out on the street, talking to constituents, answering their questions, and being what he’s always been — a man of the people, working every day on behalf of his constituents, and for all of us.
Below, a little something VanRamblings posted on social media last week …
You know who has my favourite voice, that when I hear it – as is the case with all British Columbians, I believe, and as was the case when he called me at my home this morning to thank me for my recent donation to his sure-to-be winning re-election campaign in Vancouver Point Grey — I am filled with the warmth of his spirit, and hear and feel in the timbre of his voice the integrity of his active engagement in the life of our province, the person who best embodies what it means to be a citizen of our province, a person — and since 2013, an elected official in Victoria – who is always on our side — and a future Premier, I believe — as has long been the case in the various roles he has played, represents the aims and desires of all of us, David Eby — who embodies everything and more that I, and other British Columbians, look for in a leader: an uncommon and grace-filled ability to touch our hearts, a warm and captivating intelligence, an integrity unparalleled in the political life of our planet, and a dedication and a devotion to each of us as citizens of the province and to all of us collectively, to our families and our friends and neighbours and colleagues.
All of the above is true, and in addition, David Eby is one of the great all time dads, a loving father to his two young children.
One time, awhile back, when at an intimate social gathering with a group of friends, VanRamblings — ever the educator, with a degree in Early Childhood Education, and ever the observing sociologist in family-like gatherings of people — amidst the near pandemonium of the birthday celebration to which we had both been invited, VanRamblings was afforded the opportunity to observe David with his son, Ezra.
In all our years on this planet, we’re not sure that we’ve ever observed a more loving, a more tender and appreciative interaction between father and son, an affectionate and age-appropriate passing along of values, a contextualization of a son’s experience of the world that provided the circumstance with context, within the cherished embrace of all who his son was in that moment, and all that Ezra would be as he grows to be a man.
So, you see, David Eby is not simply a political figure, a Member of the Legislature for the British Columbia provincial riding of Vancouver-Point Grey, a recent Minister of Justice and Attorney-General — and likely to be again should the John Horgan-led New Democrats be re-elected to government on October 24th — but David Eby is, as well, a good man and a loving father, and as he cares for his children, he cares for us, as well, but as partners and community members and citizens who are all in this thing we call life, together, and who means better for us each and every day.
One week from today, October 13th at 6:30pm, the one and only, sure-to-be-contentious televised 2020 Election Debate involving the leaders of the three main B.C. political parties vying to become the head of government in the province of British Columbia, will be broadcast across our province on Global BC and CBC, as well as on CBC radio and the network of radio stations affiliated and originating with Global CKNW radio in Vancouver.
B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan, B.C. Liberal Party Leader Andrew Wilkinson and B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau will debate key election issues in the 90-minute televised debate, a presentation by the British Columbia Broadcast Consortium, scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m and air across all British Columbia platforms, including television, radio and online.
Shachi Kurl, president of the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, will act as the debate moderator. There will be direct questions presented to the candidates, as well as an opportunity for head-to-head debate between the individual party leaders. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, there will be no live audience, and participants will follow public health guidelines.
And, finally for today, the entirely heartening campaign launch video for BC NDP candidate Nathan Cullen, who was from 2004 through 2019 the immensely popular NDP Member of Parliament for the riding of Skeena — Bulkley Valley, who in this year of 2020 is running in the current British Columbia election as the BC New Democratic Party candidate in the provincial riding of Stikine, encompassing much of the land and the people within his former federal riding. Likely to be British Columbia’s next Finance Minister should a John Horgan-led BC NDP be re-elected to government, and should the people of the Stikine favour his election to the British Columbia Legislature, the above is Nathan Cullen’s campaign launch video.
At the beginning of the second week of the current 32-day British Columbia provincial election, according to a province-wide poll conducted by IPSOS Public Affairs’ Kyle Braid for Global BC, John Horgan’s B.C. NDP hold a commanding lead over both the B.C. Liberal party — in power from 2001 to 2016 — and the B.C. Greens that will not only return the New Democrats to power, but could very well end in an election rout, and an overwhelming majority for the only elected social democratic government in Canada.
“It’s not close,” says Braid. “The NDP started the campaign with an 18-point lead over the BC Liberals. Currently, 51% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The BC Liberals are next at 33% support, followed by the Greens at 12%.
The NDP have a 25-point lead among women (53% NDP vs. 28% Libs) and a narrower, but still substantial, 11-point lead among men (49% Libs vs. 38% NDP).
The NDP has a large 26-point lead on Vancouver Island (51% NDP vs. 25% Libs) and a 23-point lead in Metro Vancouver (55% NDP vs. 32% Libs). Things are much closer in the Southern Interior/North, where the NDP has only a 5-point lead (44% NDP vs. 39% Libs). The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island at 20% support (vs. 11% in Metro Vancouver, 9% in Southern Interior/North).
B.C. NDP leader John Horgan, at 44%, has a huge lead over both B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson (14%) and recent winner of the contest for leadership of the B.C. Greens, Sonia Furstenau (6%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of B.C.
According to poll aggregator 338 Canada John Horgan’s NDP are on track to win as many as 69 seats in the British Columbia legislature (there are 87 ridings across the province), with Andrew Wilkinson’s B.C. Liberal party set to win as few as 18 seats, leaving the B.C. Greens without a seat in the house in Victoria. Be mindful, tho, these are early days in the B.C. election.
The election chances for all three B.C. political parties will likely come into clearer focus following the upcoming televised leaders’ debate, a date for which event has not been set as VanRamblings’ column goes to print.
For those who are interested, as of midnight, here are the number of seats filled by each party: NDP: 83/87 | Liberals: 82/87 | Greens: 44/87 | Libertarians: 11/87 | Conservatives: 8/87. In a press conference she held yesterday in Vancouver, the B.C. Greens’ Sonia Furstenau told reporters that it was unlikely the Greens would field candidates in many more ridings than have been filled to date, while both the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Liberals will have all their parties’ candidates in place no later than this weekend.
In the early days of Decision BC 2020, John Horgan and the B.C. NDP have gotten off to a near faultless start, with little interfering respecting the leader’s messaging — although Mr. Horgan was forced to respond to a tempest in a teapot issue that arose yesterday, when former B.C. NDP vice-president and 2017 Vancouver-False Creek NDP candidate Morgane Oger posted a selfie on Instagram on Monday as she stood in front of a framed photograph of graffiti reading “f*** the” with the rest of the text cropped out. CTV News obtained a photo of Ms. Oger posing with the entire photograph, showing a stone wall where the phrase f*** the police is fully legible, with a caption reading, “Art is a window into society’s soul.”
“That photo really frames the sentiment of people who are on the receiving end of policing, not because police officers themselves are discriminatory, but because society actually still tolerates discrimination through its enforcement,” Oger said in an interview yesterday morning.
John Horgan responded to the “controversy”, stating, “I know Morgane, I know her to be a passionate woman who’s focused on increasing the well-being of people in vulnerable situations. The sentiment expressed in the photo on Morgane’s Instagram feed does not reflect my sentiment.”
B.C. Liberal leader Andrew “The Grouch” Wilkinson campaign off to an unsalutary start
Poor Andrew Wilkinson. Not only is he an almost anonymous political figure in our province, with a leadership standing of a sorry 14%, the woebegone B.C. Liberal leader has had to contend with one very real candidate controversy after another. If this keeps up, his political fortunes are toast.
Abbotsford South B.C. Liberal candidate, Bruce Banman — the former Abbotsford Mayor best known for ordering city staff to lay chicken manure down on a homeless encampment, while calling homeless Abbotsford residents, “drug using criminals” — was forced by Andrew Wilkinson to apologize for his intemperate remarks and actions.
Meanwhile, in the riding of Langley East, B.C. Liberal candidate Margaret Kunst came under fire for opposing a rainbow crosswalk for the township.
And lest we forget, Chilliwack-Kent MLA Laurie Throness continues to face criticism for running advertisements in the Christian lifestyle publication The Light Magazine, which has included anti-LGBT articles including content against SOGI resources in schools and in support of conversion therapy. Not to mention which, just this morning, several Chilliwack and Tri-Cities organizations have written a joint letter to Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson calling for the removal of Chilliwack-Kent candidate Laurie Throness over his expressed views on conversion therapy, a controversial practice that aims to convert LGBTQ+ members that the federal government is moving to ban.
And just last evening, B.C. NDP Delta North candidate Ravi Kahon alleged Surrey-Fleetwood B.C. Liberal candidate Garry Thind had violated the B.C. Elections Act. Lawyer Rachel Roy reported to Elections B.C. that dozens of members of a WhatsApp group called “Garry Thind-Fleetwood” were asked to collect information including names, dates of birth, addresses, phone numbers, email addresses and a piece of government-issued identification (e.g. Social Insurance number, driver’s license number) from voters, in order that Mr. Thind’s campaign staff could order mail-in ballots to his election headquarters, with an eye to campaign staff filling out and posting the mail-in ballots without the express knowledge of the voters they were purporting to represent — a fraudulent activity, and a clear violation of the B.C. Elections Act.
B.C. Liberal leader Wilkinson also found himself in hot water with former senior Liberal party adviser, Martyn Brown, for “arguably the most cynical, most dishonest, and most outright dumb all-time acts of desperate vote-buying” when Mr. Wilkinson vowed to scrap B.C.’s 7% provincial sales for a year and then cut it to 3% the next year.
“When they go low, we go lower, might as well be his motto,” writes Mr. Brown in a column in The Straight. “It shows that Wilkinson’s B.C. Liberals have learned absolutely nothing from their well-deserved banishment from office following former premier Christy Clark’s pathetic attempt to throw her party’s “principles” out the door, in her vain effort to cling to power.
Before the COVID pandemic brought our economy to a standstill, crippling government revenues in the process, the sales tax was projected to yield $7.5 billion to provincial coffers. It is the B.C. government’s second-largest source of funding, accounting for some 22% of total taxation revenues. Deliberately losing whatever remains of the government’s drastically reduced revenue stream wouldn’t just be grossly irresponsible; it would be insane.
This is what the lust for absolute power does to otherwise smart people like the Brainiac Wilkinson: it turns them and anyone who votes for them into partisan lunatics, devoid of all sense and principle. Fiscal discipline was supposed to be the B.C. Liberals’ central tenet. No longer.”
Gosh, if this is how a longtime friend of, and senior party official within, the B.C. Liberal party is expounding on the political acumen respecting his beloved provincial political party, one is left to wonder how the average British Columbian feels about Mr. Wilkinson’s crass attempt to buy votes?
For all that, Andrew Wilkinson has to thank his lucky stars that John Horgan called the election when he did, months before Justice Austin Cullen’s Commission on money laundering within the province of British Columbia provides a summary report to government on the extent, growth, evolution and methods of money laundering in gaming and horse racing, real estate, unregulated entities and persons who provide banking-like services, the use of shell companies, trusts, securities and financial instruments for the purposes of money laundering, luxury goods, and … well, you get the picture. Money laundering in B.C.: a legacy of the Christy Clark government that, due to B.C. Liberal government inaction, distorted British Columbia’s economy, fuelled the opioid crisis and overheated the real estate market.
As VanRamblings was saying to a friend yesterday, and as we reported in an earlier column, the government of John Horgan is the first British Columbia government in more than a half century not to be dogged by controversy and the taint of corruption. So much for British Columbia’s vaunted reputation as the disreputable wild, wild west of Canadian politics.
