All of the late release films that are about to be nominated by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences in various of the categories for the much sought after little gold man are finally making their way in our multiplexes.

So far, VanRamblings has seen Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born, which knocked us on our keester, flat out the most entertaining (and moving) film in the Oscars sweepstakes this year. Damien Chazelle’s First Man, a biopic about astronaut Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon, starring an impressively repressed and taciturn Ryan Gosling and a certain-to-be-nominated Claire Foy (Netflix’s The Crown) — we cried our eyes out every time she was on screen, as was the case in the entire first half of A Star is Born, Chazelle’s follow-up to La La Land and Whiplash a bit of departure for the filmmaker, who this year has filmed the most “serious” Oscar contender we’ve screened early on — both films are in wide release in theatres, and definitely worth catching.

Wash Westmoreland’s stunningly well-realized Colette, starring an exquisite Keira Knightley is the erudite film of the Oscar season, and would seem to be a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay, but perhaps not. Director George Tillman Jr.’s The Hate U Give is a must-see for families (and for the rest of us). Björn Runge The Wife will be hanging around in theatres for awhile, providing erudite competition for Colette — Glenn Close, like Ms. Knightley are both locks for a Best Actress Oscar nomination, in a very crowded field.
The first English language film for Gallic directorial master Jacques Audiard (The Prophet) is in a category all its own, part oater, part auteur European film, and entertaining and involving as all get out from beginning to end, sporting outstanding performances from everyone concerned, particularly a best-ever performance by John C. Reilly (prior to this film we were comme ci,comme ça about him — not after seeing The Sisters Brother’s were not … wow!) — with Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix, Jake Gyllenhaal and Riz Ahmed all outstanding, as are all the members of the supporting cast.

Today’s Arts Friday is all about the indefinable science of Oscars-ology, which leads to asking questions we hope to answer in today’s column …

What is Oscar bait? Is it a derogatory term?
The phrase gets thrown around fairly loosely every awards season, but what does it really imply?
Quite obviously, “Oscar bait” refers to films that seem to have been produced for the purpose of garnering Oscar nominations for the studios which have either produced or acquired the films. These films are almost always released in the autumn, when the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences begin to think Oscar awards season.
Taking a look back at past Oscar winners, history shows that the Academy tends to favour biopics, war epics, films that take aim at social issues, films that focus on real-life tragedies, and films based on Hollywood.
The question still remains, though: Is Oscar bait a derogatory term?
VanRamblings would suggest that the answer is both yes and no.
While the term may be demeaning to the studios heads and the filmmakers making the prestigious Oscar fare, there seems to be good Oscar bait and bad Oscar bait — the latter rarely win awards.
If the past few decades have taught us anything, it’s that there is a tried-and-tested recipe for Oscar success; a specific formula to follow in order to stake a claim for a Best Picture gong.

• 1. Make a biopic. Whether that’s in the form of a monarch (The King’s Speech), a sports star (Rocky), or a politician (The Iron Lady), biopics often lead to Oscar success;

• 2. Hire a famous and/or male director. Female directors are conspicuous by their absence in the history of the Best Picture category. In fact, if you’re a woman, you might as well start practicing your humble congratulatory face for the cameras now — unless of course you’re Kathryn Bigelow, of The Hurt Locker fame;
• 3. Give the film a snappy title. Sixty-one of the 83 Academy Awards handed out for Best Picture have been given to films with titles that are three words or less. Since the turn of the century only the Cohen brothers’ No Country For Old Men and Peter Jackson’s Middle-Earth meander The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King, have exceeded the three-word rule;
• 4. Make a period film. In recent years it has become more predictable, with 20 of the last 30 winners being set in the past. Nominations for The Help, War Horse and The Artist, all of which delve into the annals of history are tried and true Oscar bait period films.

A team of American scientists recently released a study which suggested they may have discovered a formula both for box office and Oscar success.
After analyzing data from 6,147 movie scripts and filtering them through a series of algorithms, the researchers identified the emotional arc that makes the most money, categorizing the movies according to six emotional profiles or clusters, which were previously applied to novels.
These are: rags to riches — an ongoing emotional rise as seen in films such as The Shawshank Redemption; riches to rags — an ongoing emotional fall (Psycho); “man in a hole” — a fall followed by a rise (The Godfather); Icarus — a rise followed by a fall (On the Waterfront); Cinderella — a rise followed by a fall followed by a rise (Babe); and Oedipus, a fall followed by a rise followed by a fall (All About My Mother).
The analysis showed that the films with the happy-sad-happy trajectory were the most financially successful movies across all genres. For biographical films, rags to riches came out on top, but it was far less successful in mysteries and thrillers. For comedies the riches to rags arc, which allows for a sad ending, was by far the least successful.
Riches to rags movies could be financially successful if they were epic and made with a huge budget, such as Christopher Nolan’s Batman movies; Icarus films are most successful with a low budget; and Oedipus films do not do well at awards ceremonies.
In publishing their academic research, the scientists conducting the study stated that they hoped their research would help film companies be more creative, because if they know what will be commercially successful it could give them security to produce more experimental movies.
“We don’t see it as limiting, it could allow companies to be more inventive,” one of the research scientists told VanRamblings.

Whatever the case, we’ve got some great films coming the pike between now and the new year: Peter Farrelly’s Green Book, the audience award winner in Toronto this year, which could end up walking away with the whole thing; Barry Jenkins’s adaptation of James Baldwin’s If Beale Street Could Talk, Marielle Heller’s Can You Ever Forgive Me (currently screening at the Fifth Avenue Cinema), Jason Reitman’s The Front Runner, director Steve McQueen’s Widows, Lee Chang-dong’s masterful thriller and Cannes FIPRESCI Prize winner Burning (set to open at the Vancity Theatre next Friday) — and, well, the list could go on and on, couldn’t it?

Suffice to say, for films lovers there’s great cinema coming down the pike.