Category Archives: BC Politics

Park Board: Paving Paradise to Construct an Asphalt Bike Path

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A rally to protest the imposition of a 12-foot-wide, paved bike path through Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks will take place at NOON, this Sunday, October 20th, at Kitsilano Beach, in the area between the palm trees, adjacent to the Boathouse restaurant. Please read the post below for background information on the rally, and protest. We’ll see you there.

In July of this year, Vancouver City Council approved a bike-friendly corridorcolloquially titled the Seaside Greenway — stretching from the south end of the Burrard Street Bridge through to Jericho Park, the process achieving a critical component of a much-sought-after Vancouver bike road network.
That the Seaside Greenway plan lacked substantive detail, and was bereft of any suggestion of insight into the possible environmental impacts of the newly-approved, extended, bike route corridor stretching along Vancouver’s pristine west side waterfront, that the approved plan called for a bike route along York Avenue that almost every one of the more than 100 speakers who addressed Council opposed, that details of a proposed bike path through Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks was utterly lacking in transparent disclosure — exorcising a goodly portion of a concerned populace — mattered not, at least for the moment, anyway.
Summer beckoned, the sun shone as it had not before, family vacations were in the offing, and the warming, sandy beaches of the west side made their siren call. The silly season had overtaken us; there was time enough down the line to consider the full implications of the decision taken by Vancouver City Council to introduce their much-desired Seaside Greenway.
Initial construction of Vancouver’s Cornwall Avenue - Point Grey Road Seaside Greenway commenced in early September with engineering changes to the south end of the Burrard Street Bridge, and the implementation of a T-intersection — the full implications of which we’re just going to have to wait to see, in practice — that will serve, all at once, to restrict vehicle access to Cornwall, prioritize and enable easier bike access, and direct most bridge traffic south along Burrard Street to Fourth Avenue, and Broadway.
Residents Oppose Paved Bike Route That Will Scar Westside Parks


Global TV. Residents speak out against 12-foot-wide paved Kits Beach bike path

Approximately two weeks ago — on Monday, October 7th — a Vision Vancouver-dominated Park Board approved $2.2 million in new bike paths along Vancouver’s westside waterfront, in support of Vancouver City Council’s Seaside Greenway “Point Grey-Cornwall Active Transportation Corridor”. Included in the approved plan were “improvements” to Hadden & Kitsilano Beach parks — an initiative that would result in the destruction of a portion of Vancouver’s natural environment, in favour of the building of an egregious 12-foot-wide asphalt bike path that would serve to all but destroy the natural beauty of two of Kitsilano’s most beloved parks.
In today’s VanRamblings’ post, we’ll attempt to present a broad cross-section of opinion on the proposed Hadden / Kitsilano Beach park bike route — from concerned neighbours, the media, Vision Vancouver and NPA Park Board Commissioners, and others — and hope to inform you of the very important issues at play in the decision taken by Vancouver Park Board on October 7th that many believe will permanently destroy a tranquil setting of natural beauty along Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet oceanfront.
This coming Sunday, October 20th, at noon, in front of Kitsilano Beach’s Boathouse restaurant — in the area nearest the palm trees — concerned citizens will rally to demand that the Vancouver Park Board reverse their decision approving a plan for Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks that will …

  • Eliminate much-needed green space, and
  • Create serious new safety hazards for families, children, pedestrians, and non-cyclists who would seek to enjoy the natural beauty of the two parks

Organizers of the rally suggest that “an improper consultation process — including a lack of public engagement, advisement, consultation, public signage, and public meetings with key stakeholders” invalidates the decision taken by Park Board to approve the new 12-foot-wide, paved bike path through Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks. Organizers further take umbrage with the City’s unparalleled rush to construction, and point out to Park Board Commissioners that the leader of the BC Cycling Association supports an alternative bike route, adjacent to the nearby roadway.
Vancouver Courier columnist Sandra Thomas reports that the “Kits Beach bike path is a done deal“, quoting Vision Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Aaron Jasper thusly …

“To be clear,” said Jasper, “this decision will not be reversed.”

In The Courier article, Thomas reports KitsFest co-founder and two time Olympian Howard Kelsey disagreeing that the public consultation was thorough, noting that many stakeholders affected by the proposed bike path were in attendance at a special ceremony on September 29th for the official Park Board opening of 10 recently-renovated Kitsilano Beach tennis courts, quoting Kelsey as saying …

“We were right there and no one said a word to any of us,” said Kelsey, who chairs Canada One Athletic Foundation and is executive vice-president of Canada Basketball. “We were completely blindsided.”

Commenting on the Save Kits Beach Facebook page, Vancouver resident Anita Sigur writes …

Now they’ve gone too far.

Slicing up the best and most untouched part of the park in order to put in a twelve foot paved bike path is absolute madness. How does cutting out the heart of this beautiful park serve to “green” the city?

The hill at the north end of Kits Beach Park is a paradise for picnickers. In a recent newspaper article (Vision Vancouver Park Board Commissioner) Constance Barnes called it a “dormant” area. Really?! If she meant a perfect spot to catch a summer nap, then I’d wholeheartedly agree. On my frequent walks there in the spring and summer I am always greeted with the sight of many contented couples and families hanging out there, making a day of it. It is the ideal spot to enjoy breathtaking views, a cool sea breeze, and some much needed shade from the enormous maple trees.

This place that they want to pave over is the destination that rewards those who walk, cycle, or arrive at the park in their cars. If you’re in a hurry to cycle some place else, I suggest you take the road. Parks are for slowing down in and drinking in their beauty. The proposed bike path not only takes away a 12-foot-wide wide swath of valuable park space, but vast amounts of park space around it that will be avoided by dog walkers, people with children, and those who don’t find it at all relaxing sitting next to what will be, in effect, a bike freeway.”

Vancouver resident Colleen Hardwick has prepared the following video …

Meanwhile, Vancouver Sun columnist Pete McMartin attributes elitist motives to those who will rally to protest the imposition of a paved bike route through the middle of two of Vancouver’s most beloved parks. McMartin writes that the west side protest represents …

“… a disturbing trend that might be demographic in nature; or it might be a symptom of the growing gulf between the haves and have-nots in the city. But it’s shrill, and it betrays a panic that has entered the public discourse.”

A very fine, a humane, writer, with all due respect to Mr. McMartin, very rarely does he get it as wrong as he gets it here. When he writes, “And whatever its route, a bike lane running through a park is not an issue.” No? Has he not watched the video above, nor personally tracked the route (someone has clearly marked the proposed bike path with chalk), as VanRamblings did this past Monday? Does he honestly believe that the faux consulting that the Vision Vancouver-dominated City Council and Park Board have engaged in (a bought-and-paid-for-by-Vision online survey — this is ‘big city’ politics of the worst kind we’re talking here) truly represents the opinions of the hundreds and thousands of cyclists who traverse the route around and through Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks? If so, there may be a bridge he’s interested in that we could sell him for cheap.
Vancouver’s ‘rant king’, the blustery Bruce Allen, weighed in Wednesday, in his daily commentary on CKNW, taking a stand against the proposed bike route through the parks — we feel as if we’re falling down the rabbit hole here, perplexed that McMartin is taking the wrong side of the issue, while the generally frenzied Allen finds himself on the side of the angels

On Monday, October 14th, Vancouver Sun reporter Brian Morton wrote the following story, titled “Kitsilano Beach bike route plan draws fire from critics”, quoting Kitsilano resident James Goodman …

“I don’t object to a separated bike lane,” said local resident James Goodman on Monday. “But to go right through a picnic area is ridiculous when they can easily follow the park boundary around it.”

“There wasn’t enough consultation, but there’s also not enough common sense,” added Goodman. “This is the one area of the park that’s heavily used.”

Morton also quotes Howard Kelsey, Executive VP, Basketball Canada

“We are quite strongly shocked to see this and we knew nothing about this until last Monday,” said Kelsey, who said he represents about 3,000 basketball, tennis and beach volleyball users. “This just came out of the middle of nowhere because it was so stealthily managed. We are just so disappointed.

“We would be remiss to let them pave a 12-foot swath for a bike highway parallel to Arbutus Avenue through a highly-used recreational area beside the basketball courts that we donated and the children’s play area that Rick Hansen donated,” added Kelsey, noting that 23 parking spaces in a parking lot would also be taken away in a crowded area “where those spots are worth gold in the summer.”

Kelsey said he proposed a meeting with the Park Board on Wednesday, but hadn’t heard back. For all that, according to the Vancouver Sun, the opposition to the Hadden/Kits Beach park bike route is gaining momentum.

Howard Kelsey

On Wednesday morning Kelsey, and Kits Point Residents Association’s Lynne Kent, appeared on Bill Good’s CKNW talk show to express concern about the imposition of an unnecessary paved bike path through Hadden and Kits Beach parks. Click this link to hear what they had to say.
Update, Saturday morning: Howard Kelsey appeared with Jill Bennett on CKNW. Click on the audio file below to hear their discussion.

Vancouver Courier ‘Central Park’ columnist, Sandra Thomas, in a front page story published in Friday, October 18th’s Courier, has written a well-researched, balanced story, titled, “Vancouver bike path critics ready to fight, Rally against Kits bikeway planned for Sunday,” quoting the concerns of park users on the planned paved bike route. Well worth a read.
The Province newspaper has weighed in on the bike path controversy …

“You know what Vancouver needs? A lot less partisan politics at city hall. While some other large B.C. communities have municipal parties, and the ideological debates that can bring, nowhere is local politics more vicious and destructive to social cohesion and sense of community than in Vancouver. And never has that been more true than since Vision Vancouver under Mayor Gregor Robertson laid political siege to the city. It was Robertson himself who set the tone early when he was caught on microphone at a 2010 public meeting dismissing a group of concerned residents as “f—- NPA hacks.

Now Vancouver parks board vice-chairman Aaron Jasper is getting in on the act; he’s arrogantly dismissing legitimate citizen concerns about a bike lane that will cut through the heart of Kits Beach park, endangering other users, as the work of the Non-Partisan Association. He says he’ll listen to them, but it’s a done deal.

That’s the brutal partisan behaviour of Vision that so many Vancouverites have grown sick of and why they feel they have no voice. Vision’s reputation for ramming through its projects without regard to public opinion is well-established. It’s why so many now say, “I voted for Vision, but never again.” It’s also why some residents now tune out Vision proposals, which isn’t good either.

Vancouver could do with a lot more of the municipal politicians you find in smaller towns who are primarily interested in serving the public and finding compromise on issues — not turning every issue into a winner-take-all partisan fight at the expense of the majority. The city would be a much nicer place if that were true.”

Let’s hope the Vision Vancouver folks over at City Hall are listening.

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For all that the more progressive forces in town tend to demonize the NPA as “that party of the right” — Vancouver’s oldest (but still thriving) municipal party, the standard-bearer of civic governance for most of the past century — over the past two years, and more, it has proved to be NPA Park Board Commissioners John Coupar and Melissa De Genova who have emerged as the Park Board Commissioners who, as persons of conscience and integrity, have steadfastly stood up for the interests of Vancouver citizens on a range of important Park Board issues, their commitment to transparency of decision-making, and democratic input from all of us who live in Vancouver, hearteningly (and dare we say, joyously) consistent.
On the NPA website, Commissioners De Genova and Coupar have called for meaningful engagement with the public on “the controversial plan to pave a 12-foot wide swath of blacktop through Kits Beach Park and Hadden Park.” Both NPA Commissioners will attend the Kitsilano Beach protest, De Genova tweeting out that she considers Sunday’s rally a “public consultation.”
Although we had written earlier that we felt it unlikely elected representatives of Vision Vancouver would attend Sunday’s protest rally, sources claim that Vision Park Board Commissioners Trevor Loke and Constance Barnes have agreed to attend. Clearly, they’ll not be in for an easy time of it — let’s try and keep the dialogue respectful, though.
The Georgia Straight has published a letter from Kitsilano resident Jason A. Johns …

I am writing to express my complete discontent with the bike lanes that are planned through Kits Beach. I’m a Kits Point resident and I am shocked that we knew nothing about the proposal.

While I approve of bike lanes, I can’t support tearing up of precious green space on a beach where families come to barbecue, and where kids throw footballs, Frisbees, play volleyball, or just run around and play.

The proposed location is dangerous to park users who are mostly pedestrians. The lane goes directly through popular picnic areas.

It is amazing to me that politicians who want Vancouver to be the “greenest city on Earth” would support such a ridiculous plan. My 13-year-old keeps asking how such a plan could be approved when it goes against all the things she has been learning at school. Even she can see the potential new danger for children playing.

Margaret Partridge has created a protest petition at Change.org, which as of Saturday evening has garnered the support of more than five hundred concerned citizens, whose signatures and commentary express concern about an environmentally unsound paved Kitsilano Beach bike path.

sal-robinson-bike-path.jpg On the Keep Kits Beach Wild Facebook page, there’s quite a discussion going on respecting the proposed bike route through Hadden and Kitsilano Beach parks. Perhaps the most poignant comment we’ve read in this whole brouhaha was written by Colleen Hardwick, “A tragic, destructive and unnecessary make-work project on the part of the City and the Park Board. Surely the irony of paving a park for a bike lane in the name of the “green” agenda, isn’t lost on the voting public.”
There’s also quite a discussion going on at Voony’s Blog — a blog covering transportation issues in Vancouver, and the notion of urbanism — on the attendant issues involved in the Hadden Park – Kitsilano Beach bike route.
For VanRamblings, the issue is, as always, democracy, respect for the people, the citizenry — the families of every description who make up this expressive world of ours. Most of those who are involved in organizing the protest rally on Sunday, or who have commented on the various Facebook pages, or written letters to the newspapers, or who signed the Change.org petition, are not “political“, or have branded themselves as such, as if politics is a dirty word.
And, you know what?
Politics is a dirty word — when you have municipal parties like Vision Vancouver, the provincial Liberals or the federal Tories, each of which is given over far too often to the engagement of the politics of division, the politics of the big lie, the politics of personal destruction, the disheartening and ugly politics of malevolence and ill will, and most cynically, the politics of self-interest with which we have all become much too familiar, as we go about the daily conduct of our lives, struggle to make a living, put food on our table, care for those who are dear to us, and attempt to find joy, and — from time to time —&#32locate oases of calm and tranquility.
Our parks are those oases of calm and tranquility, those meeting places where we connect, really connect, with our friends and our neighbours, with our families, and with those who live around us — who share our home with us — where we gain perspective on our lives, as we look across the grasses, through the trees, to the open ocean and the mountains beyond, and reflect on what it means to be us, as father, mother, sister, daughter, son and brother, aunt, uncle, grandmother, grandfather, disabled person, working person, retired person, transgendered person, gay, straight, lesbian, whatever our race or colour, whatever our heritage.
Early 20th century novelist Austen Tappan Wright, in his seminal work of fiction, Islandia, called this notion, tanrydoon, which he defined as

How we are attuned to the environment, and to all those around us, our love of place, but also of family as they are related to that place, the absence of selfishness or purely personal interest, which is supplanted by the long view of one’s place and family across generations, the cultivation of the lands around us that become the project of generations, our parks and our open spaces as home, and the equivalent of great cathedrals, deeply tied to our love of the Earth, as an expression of our love for the natural environment, and for all those with whom we share the natural environment. We will always have the Earth, the rolling grasses and the sky, and the warmth of the sun.

If we lose the green space within Hadden and Kits Beach parks, in favour of an unnecessary and destructive paved bike path, we will lose a bit of ourselves, our history, and our legacy to the generations that are to follow.
At noon, on Sunday, October 21st, a few hundred good people will gather together at Kitsilano Beach to say, “This is our Earth, this is our natural environment, our green space, where we might enjoy the company of our neighbours and friends and family, our park as an oases of tranquility in our otherwise, too often, frenetic lives. We, all of us, do not want nor do we need a ragged, unforgiving asphalt bike path cutting through our park.”


Photos of Hadden & Kitsilano Beach parks, taken by Elvira Lount, Oct. 13, 2013.


Colleen Hardwick takes a walk along Ogden Avenue, from Chestnut to Maple and through Kits park, showing the existing provisions for bicycles, as well as cars, school buses, dog-walkers, roller-bladers, and other park users. Oct. 18, 2013.

Hope to see you at Kits Beach, noon, on Sunday. At some point, we must take a stand. Sunday just may be the starting point of change.

BC Election 2013: BC Liberals Win a Massive Majority

BC Liberals win

VanRamblings is recovering from the New Democrats’ devastating loss to the B.C. Liberals’ incalculably unexpected (and undeserved) win at the polls on Tuesday evening, and their relentlessly negative, fear-based campaign.
Over the next 48 hours, we’ll give some thought to what happened during the course of Decision BC 2013 that resulted in Tuesday night’s disastrous loss for the interests of the majority of British Columbians, what it means for B.C. going forward, what the NDP must do to better engage the voters and actually bring them out to the polls to vote for Change for the Better (turnout at the polls was slightly better in 2013 than was the case in 2009, at just a titch over 52%), whether Adrian Dix — who we believe could have been the leader of a generation for British Columbia — should remain as leader of the BC NDP, what the NDP loss means for how political campaigns are run going forward, and more.
For now, though, we’ll rest, while we attempt to recover from the deep feeling of loss we feel at what might have been.
One final thought for now: as we have aged over the years, VanRamblings has become more sanguine about the unfolding of the events which impact on our lives — still, we will not give up the fight, for we live to fight another day. Rather, at this time, we simply require a period of reflection to measure the impact of our collective loss, to put that loss into perspective, and determine for ourselves how we will proceed in the times to come to work for change, to continue our work towards a fairer and more democratic society, where everyone might feel engaged and empowered enough in their lives to become a part of the change that must be, to better represent our hopes, our dreams, our aspirations for ourselves, for our families, our neighbours, the province, the country and the world.

British Columbia Election 2013: A Round Up of Predictions


308 final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013


Éric Grenier’s 308.com final British Columbia election prediction, May 14, 2013

Éric Grenier — the Canadian statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer — has developed a system for forecasting political party popularity, and during election campaigns, outcome predictions for provincial and federal campaigns. To that end, as of this morning, Monday, May 13th — employing all of the polling data from Abacus, Angus-Reid, Ipsos-Reid, Forum Research and all other pollsters sampling voter intent in the province during the Decision BC 2013 post-writ election period — Mr. Grenier continues to predict a 92.7% chance of an NDP majority government as the outcome of the British Columbia provincial election, even if by a slimmer margin than was the case at the outset of the current election period.
As Mr. Grenier suggests in his latest column for the Globe and Mail

“Despite a spell of new polls heading in different directions injecting a good deal of uncertainty into what to expect from tomorrow’s election in British Columbia, the B.C. New Democrats remain the favourite to win and form the province’s next government.

Based on current polling levels, Mr. Dix appears safely in majority territory with a projected 45 to 56 seats, above the 43 seats needed to form a majority government. Christy Clark’s Liberals are projected to win between 26 and 40 seats, while up to four independents should be elected. These numbers are virtually unchanged from the last forecast, while the precise projection of 48 seats for the NDP and 36 for the Liberals (along with one independent) is the same.

For those who can’t get enough of this, here is Angus Reid’s election eve polling data — a poll conducted over the weekend for CTV and the Globe and Mail — indicating the NDP are holding steady, with a commanding lead.
Meanwhile, Ipsos-Reid has released their final British Columbia 2013 election polling data, indicating that the BC NDP currently has the support of 45% of decided voters in BC, maintaining an 8 point lead over the BC Liberals, who are at 37% support. The Green Party is at 9%, followed by the BC Conservatives at 6%, with all other parties / candidates coming in at 3%.


UBC's Sauder School of Business Election Prediction Market analysis


UBC’s Sauder School of Business 2013 British Columbia Election Prediction Market forecast

Hedging its bets some, the Globe and Mail — which came out on Friday with an endorsement of the B.C. Liberal / Christy Clark administration, an endorsement The Tyee calls murky and error-ridden — also has the Sauder School of Business conducting an election prediction market, the results of which may be seen in the graphic directly above. Both the Sauder School of Business and 308.com predict a New Democrat majority government.


Milton Chan's Election Prediction Project projection, May 13, 2013


Milton Chan’s Election Prediction Project 2013 British Columbia election outcome prediction

Meanwhile, Milton Chan weighed in on election eve, with his prediction of the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election. Mr. Chan, too, predicts an NDP majority government in Victoria, but by a relatively slim margin. By clicking on the graphic above, readers can access Mr. Chan’s riding-by-riding breakdown for each of the 4 regions of the province — Vancouver, Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and the Interior.
As Decision BC 2013 draws to a close, there are more media, pundits and political watchers who are weighing in on the outcome of the election, and as is the case with the Election Prediction Project, providing a riding-by-riding analysis. Although the predictions below differ from Éric Grenier’s riding analysis, there’s just as much likelihood that any one of them could be as accurate, or even more accurate, than the esteemed Mr. Grenier.

  • First up, there The Tyee’s predictions for ridings across the province where, according to the folks working on The Tyee’s riding prediction analysis for B.C., “We have analyzed the polls, mulled over elections past, and peered into our crystal ball to bring you our predictions for which candidates will win which ridings. These calls are divided up into likely wins and definite wins, with some ridings deemed too close to call, the predictions no means set in stone.” Too late — the election is almost upon up. At this point, one would have to consider The Tyee’s latest set of projections to be their final riding-by-riding predictions for the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election.
  • Next up, there’s Bernard Schulmaan’s B.C. Iconoclast website. Mr. Schulmann weighs in with this riding-by-riding analysis, and following his careful analysis believes “the NDP will win 57 seats, the Liberals 22, independents 4 and Greens 2,” a more hopeful analysis if you’re an NDP supporter than any of the other prognosticators reporting out above.
  • Sacha Peter, at BC2013.com, predicts 59 seats for the BC NDP, 21 seats for the BC Liberals, 1 lone seat for the BC Conservatives, 1 elected Independent, and no elected BC Green Party members.
  • And finally for now, there’s the indefatigable Alex Tsakumis, who believes, as do other pundits, that we are on the verge of an NDP majority government, as he predicts 58 seats for the NDP, only 21 seats for the Liberals, with 5 independents being elected to the legislature in Victoria, along with 1 member of the Green Party of B.C. Here is Mr. Tsakumis’ riding-by-riding prediction, which he promises to update at 5pm on election day.

Well, that’s what we’ve got so far, folks. We’ll know final election results Tuesday night.
In keeping with VanRamblings’ consistent exposition of our prediction of the outcome of the 2013 British Columbia provincial election, we continue to believe that the BC NDP will secure a majority government with 54 seats in the legislature, followed by the Liberals with 30 seats, with the final seat going to Independent Vicki Huntington in Delta South. Could be a few seats fewer for the NDP, could be a few more. We’ll know Tuesday night.

Continue reading British Columbia Election 2013: A Round Up of Predictions

British Columbia Election 2013: Final Weekend Wrap-Up Edition


Click on picture for CTV BC report on BC NDP's widening lead in BC provincial election


Final weekend of BC election, NDP widens lead: click on picture above to hear CTV BC report

A new Angus Reid Public Opinion survey released Friday suggests the B.C. New Democrats have stretched their previous seven-point lead to nine points, with just hours to go before the provincial election. Forty-five per cent said they either intend to vote NDP or already have at an advanced polling station, compared to 36 per cent hoping for another Liberal term.

Daniel Fontaine tweets about BC NDP lead in provincial election

Overall, 30% of respondents said Adrian Dix would make the best premier, an increase of 4% over the last poll conducted at the beginning of May, while 25% favoured Clark, an increase of 1%. The online poll was conducted on May 9 and 10 among 808 randomly selected B.C. adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%, 19 times out of 20. Another poll is due to hit on Monday, the day before British Columbians head to the polls.
As both Vaughn Palmer at the Vancouver Sun, and Gary Mason at the Globe and Mail write, “the NDP are likely to win on Tuesday.”
And, if this Vancouver Sun editorial represents their final word on the 2013 British Columbia election, it pretty much amounts to an, albeit backhanded, ‘endorsement‘ of the BC NDP, a recognition that the NDP’s “Change for the better” message has even reached the beating hearts and minds of the otherwise conservative editorial board of Vancouver’s newspaper of record.
Meanwhile, Eric Grenier at ThreeHundredEight.com, has continued crunching the numbers, accumulating all polling data published this past Friday from Forum Research, Ipsos-Reid, Hill + Knowlton and all other pollsters tracking the intentions of voters across the province of British Columbia, and has come up with the following, final weekend, pre-election chart respecting the popular vote projection, and how that will likely turn into seats for the two main parties following Tuesday’s British Columbia provincial election.


Three Hundred Eight Election Prediction outcome, May 6 2013



Unless the bottom falls out of the BC New Democrat campaign over the weekend, or Christy Clark manages a Lazarus-like resurrection in the final hours of the campaign, British Columbians will be looking at a majority British Columbia New Democratic party government come Tuesday evening.
BC Election 2013: Ridings to Watch on Election Night
From Milton Chan at the Election Prediction Project to Doug Ward at The Tyee, and Eric Grenier at 308.com, reports on the ridings that will make the difference in who forms government come Wednesday morning, May 15th, have been rife. Eric Grenier has gone a step further than either Mr. Ward or Mr. Chan, and predicts riding-by-riding the outcome of Tuesday’s election.
Employing Grenier’s statistical data, here’s a breakdown of both the ridings to watch on election night, May 14th — by region of the province — and the probable vote percentages for the candidates in each contentious riding.
Vancouverridings to watch Tuesday night
Vancouver Fairview. Current MLA: Liberal, Dr. Margaret McDiarmid.
Projection: A 70% chance that the NDP’s George Heyman will claim victory on Tuesday night, taking the riding away from the Liberals, and incumbent, McDiarmid. 308.com projects 48.9% support for Heyman, leaving McDiarmid registering only 38.4% support in the riding. The NDP have long predicted a win in Vancouver Fairview for the former president of the B.C. Government and Service Employees’ Union (BCGEU), and currently on leave from his job as executive director of Sierra Club BC.
Vancouver False Creek. Current MLA: Liberal, Mary McNeil.
Projection: According to 308.com, former Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan has a 73% chance of winning the riding, with a projected 44.7% of the vote, leaving NDP newcomer Matt Toner trailing with 32.1% support. The Green Party of BC will register a projected 17.6% of the vote, a better showing for the Green’s Daniel Tseghay than is the case in any other Vancouver riding. If by some miracle, Vancouver False Creek should flip to the NDP on Tuesday evening, NDP headquarters will experience paroxysms of joy untold — not too likely an outcome, though.
Vancouver Fraserview. Current MLA: Liberal, Kash Heed.
Projection: Says Eric Grenier at 308.com, there’s a whopping 83% chance that this riding will turn to BC NDP candidate Gabriel Yiu on Tuesday night, with a projected 52.7% of the vote against his B.C. Liberal challenger, parachute candidate Suzanne Anton’s 33.5% support. Yiu, who lost to Heed by only 784 votes in 2009, questioned the fairness of Heed’s election — in 2011, Heed’s campaign manager, Barinder Sall, plead guilty to election overspending, receiving a court-imposed $15,000 fine, 1 year probation, and 200 hours community service. The incident caused Heed to resign as Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General in the Liberal cabinet.
Vancouver Langara. Current MLA: Liberal, Dr. Moira Stilwell.
Projection: A 62% chance that Vancouver-Langara will be a BC Liberal win for incumbent, Dr. Moira Stilwell. 308.com predicts 45.9% for the Liberals, and 39% for BC NDP candidate, George Chow. NDP apparatchiks working within the riding reveal riding support for Mr. Chow is great; apparently, the polls indicate otherwise. If Dr. Stilwell goes down to defeat Tuesday evening, political observers will know that a BC NDP rout is underway.
Vancouver-Point Grey. Current MLA: Liberal, Christy Clark.
Projection: According to 308.com, NDP candidate David Eby has a 64% chance of defeating incumbent Christy Clark, the current Premier. Grenier’s crunching of the numbers projects 46.9% support for Eby, and 39% for Clark, a decisive win for the BC NDP. Doug Ward, in The Tyee, writes …

The NDP hasn’t held this affluent riding since 1991, when Darlene Marzari was sent to Victoria in the Mike Harcourt victory. Former premier Campbell won four consecutive victories here, but his victory margins were moderate — except for the 2001 anti-NDP blowout. Eby nearly scored a shock upset win in the 2011 byelection, losing to Clark by only 564 votes. The NDP expects, based on the polling, to move beyond its usual base here of renters, left-wing university professors, and baby boomer professionals and retirees who attend the Vancouver Folk Festival. A former Campbell fundraiser in Point Grey was seen at a recent Eby dinner, which says something.

Of the Vancouver ridings, the BC NDP is projected to pick up all but two of the eleven seats up for grabs on election day, with the Liberals registering wins in only Vancouver-Quilchena and Vancouver-Langara. And even at that, contact from senior members of the Vancouver-Langara campaign teams over the weekend, from both main parties, suggest a win for the BC NDP in Vancouver-Langara is quite possible, as the race is close — regardless of 308.com’s imprecations on the matter to the contrary, which would mean a win of 10 of the 11 seats in Vancouver going to the BC NDP.


BC NDP stand on Kinder Morgan pipeline increases support


Opposition to Kinder Morgan expansion, turning Vancouver into a major oil export harbour: BCNDP benefits from stand. Click on graphic for more info on Justason Intelligence poll

The BC NDP have employed a multi-pronged strategy in the 2013 British Columbia provincial election.
Where in 2009, under leader Carole James, the NDP rejected Gordon Campbell’s carbon tax proposal, causing the NDP to lose both the environmental vote and the election, no such mistake is occurring this time around. For background, you’ll want to read Charlie Smith’s latest thoughtful commentary in the Georgia Straight.
From the outset, BC NDP leader Adrian Dix told voters that the NDP would challenge in every riding across the province, and they have, in the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan and the North, in addition to their traditional metropolitan Vancouver and Vancouver Island strongholds. Dix was also clear that the NDP would go after the votes of those who traditionally stay away from the polls on election day: the largely disenfranchised ethnic and immigrant community, and the votes of those under the age of 30.
Even though we agree with our friend Mike Klassen that we’ll likely see a voter participation rate at or around — and perhaps even below — 50% across the province — an even more likely outcome given the projected inclement weather, which almost always has a depressing effect on voter turnout — VanRamblings will still predict that in 2013 the young vote and immigrant community vote will hit record levels, as proved to be the case for second-term President, Barack Obama, in the 2012 U.S. election.
Now back to elucidating the provincial electoral ridings that are most in contention, from here on in, outside metropolitan Vancouver city.
Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valleyridings to watch Tuesday night
Burnaby Lougheed. Current MLA: Liberal, Harry Bloy.
Projection: Says Eric Grenier at 308.com, there’s an astounding 83% chance that this riding will turn to BC NDP candidate Jane Shin come election night, with a projected 54.1% of the vote in the NDP column against neophyte B.C. Liberal challenger, Ken Kramer, who is set to register a relatively paltry 34.3% of the vote. In 2009, Bloy edged his NDP challenger Jaynie Clark by 696 votes, with just shy of 50% of the vote. Not this time. Count Burnaby Lougheed as another pick up for the BC NDP, on their way to a majority government in the province of British Columbia.
Burnaby North. Current MLA: Liberal, Richard T. Lee.
Projection: Another pick up for the BC NDP, say both Milton Chan at the Election Prediction Project, and Eric Grenier, at 308.com. In 2009,
Burnaby North was a tight race, with the Liberals’ Lee eking out a 548 vote victory. This time, NDP challenger Janet Routledge, the Fight HST Burnaby co-ordinator, will register 51.4% to Lee’s projected 38.3% of the vote.
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. Current MLA: Liberal, Douglas Horner.
Projection: In 2009, Douglas Horner beat his NDP challenger, Heather McRitchie, by a healthy 3,251 vote margin, registering almost 60% of the vote. In 2013, 308.com suggests the race is much closer, projecting a win for Douglas Horner over NDP challenger, Chris Wilson, two-time World Cup Champion in wrestling, and current Executive Director of KidSport Tri-Cities, by a 44.4% to 39.4% vote margin. This time around, BC Conservative Shane Kennedy could throw a monkey wrench into Horner’s plan for re-election, with the popular local businessman taking enough votes away from Horner to effectively award the NDP a win in this riding.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale. Current MLA: Liberal, Naomi Yamamoto.
Projection: Incumbent B.C. Liberal candidate Naomi Yamamoto, Minister of Advanced Education in the Clark cabinet, is in tough against popular four-term City of North Vancouver councillor, Craig Keating, who holds a PhD in History from McMaster University and is currently a professor of History at Langara College in Vancouver. 308.com says there’s a 53% chance that Keating will eke out a narrow victory, garnering 41% of the vote to Yamamoto’s 38.1%. The last time North Vancouver-Lonsdale fell into NDP hands was in 1991, when economist David Schreck won the riding.
Surrey-Panorama. Current MLA: Liberal, Stephanie Cadieux.
Projection: Stephanie Cadieux, Minister of Children and Family Development in the Clark government, moved to retired BC Liberal cabinet minister Kevin Falcon’s old riding of Surrey-Cloverdale, where a win for her will be assured. In 2013, the NDP’s Amrik Mahil looks to take 45.9% of the vote against Liberal challenger, Marvin Hunt, a popular a 23-year Surrey City Councillor, who’s expected to garner only 36.6% support in the riding. According to 308.com, there’s a 68% chance that Mahil will place Surrey-Panorama into the NDP win column, contributing to a BC NDP majority government.
Surrey-Tynehead. Current MLA: Liberal, Dave S. Hayer.
Projection: When Hayer, a Liberal MLA since 2001, resigned his membership in the B.C. Liberal party condemning the party, and the Premier, for their role in the ethnic vote scandal, Amrik Virk stepped in to replace Hayer. Not good enough, according to Eric Grenier at 308.com: in 2013, the NDP’s Avtar Bains sports a 78% chance of trouncing his Liberal challenger in Surrey-Tynehead where he’s expected to pick up a whopping 53.1% of the vote. Another pick up for the BC NDP to contribute to their majority.
Langley. Current MLA: Liberal, Mary Polak.
Projection: Mary Polak, the current BC Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure in the Clark administration, is expected to retain her seat in the legislature come Tuesday evening, according to Eric Grenier at 308.com but just. Let’s have Doug Ward over at The Tyee explain …

“This one features a battle on the right between provincial Conservative Party leader John Cummins and BC Liberal Transportation Minister Mary Polak. Cummins’ natural political constituency is Delta, which he represented for many years federally. But Delta South independent MLA Vicki Huntington took that away, so Cummins switched to Langley, where he now resides, in his bid to become B.C.’s first Conservative MLA in over three decades. The New Democrats took 35 per cent of the vote here last time. It’s a long-shot scenario, but an even vote split on the right could flip this traditional bastion of small-c conservatism to NDP candidate Andrew Mercier.”

Polak, Cummins, Mercier, who knows? — guess we’ll see Tuesday night.
Abbotsford-South. Current MLA: Independent, John van Dongen.
Projection: This one’s a dog’s breakfast. Former Liberal cabinet minister Van Dongen is running again in Abbotsford-South, but this time as an Independent — where he’s expected to take 27.2% of the vote. Where does that leave high-profile Liberal candidate Darryl Plecas in his bid to retain the seat for the B.C. Liberals? Potentially on the outside looking in, according to 308.com. Plecas, and NDP candidate Lakvinder Jhaj, are in a virtual tie, with 36% of the vote likely going to Plecas, and 36.7% of the voter support apparently headed in the direction of Jhaj. We’ll see Tuesday.
Chilliwack. Current MLA: Liberal, John Les.
Projection: Count Chilliwack as another pick up for the BC NDP, although it’s gonna be a squeaker. 308.com projects 33.5% of the vote going to BC NDP candidate, Patti MacAhonic — a former Executive Director of the BC Wildlife Federation, and recently Executive Director of the Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce — leaving her B.C. Liberal challenger and former B.C. Conservative stalwart, John Martin, trailing with 31.4% of the projected vote. Like we said, this one’s gonna be a squeaker, whoever emerges as the winning candidate on Tuesday evening. Here’s what Doug Ward, over at The Tyee, has to say about the Chilliwack race …

“The New Democrats won the adjacent riding of Chilliwack-Hope for the first time ever last year thanks to vote-splitting on the right. The NDP hopes to do it again in this Bible Belt riding, which they have also never held. The BC Liberal candidate, John Martin, had nothing good to say about his party last year, when he was the Conservative candidate in Chilliwack-Hope. “The BC Liberals are in free fall,” he declared last spring. But Martin has changed his tune in this contest, which pits the college criminologist against NDP candidate Patti MacAhonic, former executive-director of the Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce, and Conservative Chad Eros. Again, the NDP will need a strong Conservative showing for MacAhonic to come up the middle..”

Politics in the Fraser Valley just gets curiouser and curiouser.
Chilliwack-Hope. Current MLA: BC NDP, Gwen O’Mahony.
Projection: On a Tuesday night that’s looking more and more like the night of the big hurt for the B.C.Liberals, Christy Clark can take some solace in 308.com’s forecast that 2012 Chilliwack-Hope by-election winner O’Mahony will lose the seat to her Liberal challenger, Laurie Throness, longtime Ottawa-based Chief of Staff for now retired Chilliwack Fraser Canyon MP Chuck Strahl. Throness should pick up close to 50% of the vote at the polls on election day, May 14th, leaving O’Mahony with only 39.4% of the vote.
Maple Ridge-Mission. Current MLA: Liberal, Marc Dalton.
Projection: BC NDP’s Mike Bocking, who’s run and run again in Maple Ridge-Mission, is set this go-round to claim victory, with a projected 46.7% of the vote against Liberal incumbent, Marc Dalton, who according to 308.com, will garner only 33.1% of the vote on election night. Another pick up for the BC NDP, another seat in the legislature to add to their majority.
After the jump, readers will find information on the ridings to watch in the Okanagan / Kootenays, the Cariboo-Thompson and the North, and over on Vancouver Island, all of which promise provocative outcomes.

Continue reading British Columbia Election 2013: Final Weekend Wrap-Up Edition