Two months from today, at 9pm on the chilly mid-autumn evening of Saturday, October 19th, British Columbians will be apprised of who will form government in the coming four years, from November 2024 through October 2028.
According to David Coletto’s August 16th Abacus poll, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain a comfortable 5-point lead over John Rustad’s novice BC Conservative Party. BC United leader Kevin Falcon and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau remain in the also ran category, with no hope of forming government post October 19th.
VanRamblings has been told that Quitto Maggi will release his latest Mainstreet poll later this week, weighing in on British Columbia’s provincial election, following an in-the-field survey of 2000+ prospective voters across the province.
Mainstreet gives John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party a 5-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP — which reads to VanRamblings as more of a push poll, commissioned by the BC Conservative Party and designed to influence prospective voters still sitting on the fence as to who they will cast a ballot for this upcoming October.
Back to David Coletto’s, more credible, Abacus August 16th poll.
According to Mr. Coletto, David Eby’s BC NDP maintain an even more comfortable 9-point lead over John Rustad’s upstart BC Conservative Party in the vote rich Metro Vancouver region out to Chilliwack, where there are 52-seats up for grabs, which will constitute 58% of the 93 seats in the next session of the British Columbia Legislature.
Further, David Eby’s BC NDP maintains an almost insurmountable lead of nine points over John Rustad’s woefully unprepared BC Conservative Party across the entirety of Vancouver Island, where 17 seats are up for grabs, all but two of which are currently held by BC NDP incumbents.
VanRamblings has been told the BC Conservatives are polling better north of Nanaimo, and could very well pick up Courtenay-Comox and the North Island.
John Rustad, leader of the upstart British Columbia Conservative Party, which is currently polling well.
Although John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party holds an 11-point lead over David Eby’s BC NDP outside of the Lower Mainland — in the Okanagan, the Interior and in the North — there are only 24 seats that the BC Conservatives could possibly win. Nathan Cullen, currently
Kevin Falcon, the beleaguered leader (at least for now) of the down in the dumps BC United Party.
Apropos of nothing in particular, VanRamblings has also been told by a generally reliable source that BC United leader Kevin Falcon will tender his resignation as party leader later this week or early next week, and most certainly before month’s end.
We don’t find the information respecting Mr. Falcon’s pending, apparent, resignation to be credible. In tomorrow’s VanRamblings, we’ll express why, while going into some detail as to why we believe Mr. Falcon is not faring better in the lead-up to the 43rd BC provincial election.
Government House, home of BC Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin, where Premier David Eby will visit September 14 to ask Ms. Austin to dissolve the Legislature and call for B.C.’s 43rd provincial election.
As we wrote last week, the Writ will be dropped on Sunday, September 14th, at which point what is sure to be an uncommonly “pointed” (read: vicious and unsettling) 35-day election cycle will commence, with the four main British Columbia political parties fighting hammer and tong for victory, whatever the nature of that “victory” might mean— for BC United, survival and six seats would suffice to keep the party alive, as would be the case with the BC Greens, who would be thrilled were they to secure two seats in the next session of the Legislature.
