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In the final daily update on the pulse of the campaign from SES
Research Canada, the CPAC-SES overnight tracking poll shows the Liberals are still marginally ahead of the Tories in popular support: Liberals 34%,
Conservatives 30%, NDP 20%, BQ 12%, Green 4%. An analysis of the regional
breakdown indicates that the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada,
Manitoba / Saskatchewan and seat rich Ontario. The Conservatives lead in
Alberta and British Columbia. The Bloc Québécois lead in Québéc. High
undecided in Québéc (29%) may be a Liberal Trojan Horse.
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In his published essay accompanying the polling results above, SES President & CEO Nikita James Nanos writes that …
“Québécers like to throw pollsters the odd ‘curve ball’. Our polls show undecided in Québéc at 29%. My instinct tells me that this is too high; there are more Liberals than BQ supporters in that group. Although some Québécers won’t openly support the Liberals, in the privacy of the voting booth it may be a different story. In a close race, this may alter the outcome of the election. Watch Québéc.”
SES’ four week regional tracking poll shows that Atlantic Canadians will vote overwhelmingly for the Liberals, with the Liberals running at 45%, the NDP in second place with 25%, and the Tories with 24% of decided voters. In Alberta, the Conservatives have gleaned 62% of decided voter support, as compared to only 23% for the Liberals and a paltry 13% for the NDP.
Everywhere else in Canada — outside of Québéc, that is — it’s a race to the finish, a neck-and-neck battle between the Liberal and Conservative front-runners, leaving the NDP as strong third-place contenders.
