As of this morning, Sunday, August 15th, following on the visit of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the residence of the recently-installed Governor General, Mary Simon, to request that she dissolve Parliament — a request to which she acceded — Canadians now find themselves in the chaotic midst of the 44th Canadian federal election since Confederation, in 1867.
Thirty-six days from now, Canadians will elect a new government — whether that is a status quo Liberal minority government or a majority Liberal government, as Mr. Trudeau might wish (quite simply, there are no reasonable and foreseeable other options on the table) we’ll know come the evening of Monday, September 20th, E-Day in every region across Canada — or within 10 days afterwards, as election returning officers conduct a hand count, post E-Day, of the more than five million ballots that are expected to be cast by mail during the latter two weeks of the writ period.
We oughta know whether it’ll be a minority or majority Liberal government Canadians have elected somewhere around Friday, October 1st.
VanRamblings will provide our usual in-depth daily coverage of the federal election each week, Monday through Thursday, over the course of the 36-day election period, providing insight, publishing polls, exploring the issues raised by each of the parties, and in the final days of the election period postulating as to the specific probable outcome of the federal election.
For the 4% of you out there who give a good goddamn about Canadian federal politics — which, in some measure, brings you to VanRamblings today — there is no more important activity to which you might turn your attention than the current federal election, which will serve to determine what kind of country we will become over the course of the next four years, and what values will be reflected in the legislation brought before government by the governing party. Make no mistake: your vote counts!
As always, elections are a crapshoot: in the early going, you just can’t predict the outcome.
In 2015, Justin Trudeau and his federal Liberal party began the election with only 23% support among Canadians, while Tom Mulcair and the NDP were rock steady at 35% popularity in the polls, in all regions of Canada, with Prime Minister Stephen Harper following closely behind with 31% support in each of the 10 provinces and three Canadian territories.
Following an unprecedented 78-day election period, on Monday, October 19, 2015 Canadians elected a majority Liberal government to Parliament, and a new Prime Minister. At election outset, no one could possibly have imagined that outcome, so entrenched was the Harper government, and so popular was the New Democratic Party under the leadership of Mr. Mulcair.
At the top of the page of today’s post, you’ll see a graphic of the relatively new Curse of Politics podcast, created to provide daily, informed coverage of the 2021 Canadian federal election.
David Herle is a Canadian political consultant and Principal Partner at leading polling and research firm, The Gandalf Group, and a regular CBC political commentator. Scott Reid is a political analyst and commentator currently working for CTV News, and a columnist and contributor to the Ottawa Citizen, CBC.ca and Macleans, among other publications.
As is the case with his colleague David Herle, Mr. Reid has acted as a political advisor to a number of Canadian politicians, having served as Advisor and Director of Communications in the Prime Minister’s Office of Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin. Along with Macleans columnist Scott Feschuk, Reid owns and operates Feschuk.Reid, a strategic communications and speechwriting consultancy.
Jenni Byrne is a political advisor, political commentator, and government relations expert. A member of the Conservative Party of Canada and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, she is a former senior advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and former Principal Secretary to Doug Ford. Once referred to as “the most powerful woman in Ottawa,” she currently operates her own consulting firm, Jenni Byrne + Associates.
Messrs. Herle and Reid and Ms. Byrne will cover the 44th Canadian federal election with greater, and more informed insight than you’ll find anywhere else in the media during the election period. Each of them has been inside the rooms where decisions have been taken by government, over the course of the past 40 years in the case of Messrs. Herle and Reid, and more than a quarter century, in the case of Jenni Byrne. As the three opined recently, “You know that you haven’t made it in politics as a senior political advisor until the Prime Minister has told you to fuck off,” a signal event which each of the three hold proudly & closely to their bosoms to this day.
The Curse of Politics podcast will be available on (just click on the links) …
VanRamblings looks forward to seeing you back here tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the début episode of the Curse of Politics podcast, above.
Update. Here’s the kick off to the election Curse of Politics podcast …
David Herle, Scott Reid and Jenni Byrne weigh in on the kick-off to the 44th Canadian federal election, in a podcast published mid-afternoon on Sunday, August 15th.
The 40th annual Vancouver International Film Festival will run from Friday, October 1st thru Thanksgiving Monday, October 11th, screening 100 features & 100 shorts this year.
After a seven and a half month break, today’s VanRamblings column — our first in 2021 — marks the beginning of 516 consecutive days of publishing.
Over the coming months, we’ll cover the current federal election, followed by coverage of the 40th annual Vancouver International Film Festival, and begin coverage of the 2022 Vancouver municipal election. Of course, each Monday through Thursday, we’ll cover much much more of a political nature, as you will come to see in the days, weeks and months ahead.
As per usual on VanRamblings, Fridays will be given over to arts coverage (mostly, but not just, film) on Arts Friday, Saturdays to our must-read and indispensable Stories of a Life feature, and Sundays to the Music we love.
Hope to see you back here often. We promise you, it’s gonna be a ride!
